April 2024 Hurricane Season Forecast

2024 has proven to be a turbulent year. Israel, Sudan, and Ukraine are engulfed in war. The 2020s have been a turbulent decade so far. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2024. Here are other forecasts. ACE is short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Colorado State University
23/11/5 ACE: 210

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
25-30 Tropical Storms/14-16 Hurricanes/6-8 Major Hurricanes ACE: 200-240

Tropical Storm Risk
20/9/4 ACE: 160

Accuweather
20-25 Tropical Storms/8-12 Hurricanes/4-7 Major Hurricanes ACE: 175-225

Crown Weather
25/12/6 ACE: 225

The Weather Channel
24/11/6

Weather Tiger
20-24 Tropical Storms/9-12 Hurricanes/4-7 Major Hurricanes ACE: 160-225

University of Arizona
21/11/5 ACE: 156

North Carolina University
15-20 Tropical Storms/10-12 Hurricanes/3-4 Major Hurricanes

The analog years I am using are in which El Nino is fading away and going into La Nina. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain. In this case, I am more looking at Eastern Equatorial El Nino. I also take into account El Nino Modoki. The warmest water is in the Central to Western Pacific.

El Nino is not the only factor. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), New Zealand Warm Pool (NZWP), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR), Dipole Mode Index (DMI), and Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (TPI IPO). Here is the ocean temperature anomaly map. It is from Tropical Tidbits.

Based on this, the analog years are 1897, 1926, 1931, 1958, 1977, 1983, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016, and 2020

Analog Years For 2024 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1897 (6/3/0 55 9.1)
1926 (11/8/6 230 20.9)
1931 (13/3/1 48 3.7)
1958 (12/7/3 110 9.1)
1977 (6/5/1 25 4.2)
1983 (4/3/1 17 4.4)
1995 (19/11/5 227 12.0)
1998 (14/10/3 182 13.0)
2005 (28/15/7 245 8.8)
2007 (15/6/2 74 4.9)
2010 (19/12/5 166 8.7)
2016 (15/7/4 141 9.4)
2020 (30/13/6 180 6.0)

All of the seasons had major hurricane with the exception of 1897. However, this is before satellite era. It is likely before satellites, the seasons were more active than what is recorded. Any season before satellite should be considered suspect. Even in satellite era, some data is rather questionable. The most active are 2005 and 2020. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that goes to 2005 with ACE of 245. 1926 and 1995 are not far behind.

Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.
1897
Hurricane #1
Hurricane #2
Hurricane #5

1926
1926 Nassau Hurricane
Great Miami Hurricane Of 1926
Great Havana-Bermuda Hurricane Of 1926

1931
Tropical Storm #5
1931 British Honduras Hurricane

1958
Alma
Ella
Helene

1977
Anita

1983
Alicia

1995
Dean
Erin
Luis
Marilyn
Opal
Roxanne

1998
Charley
Earl
Francis
Georges
Mitch

2005
Dennis
Emily
Katrina
Rita
Stan
Vince
Wilma
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta

2007
Dean
Erin
Felix
Humberto
Noel

2010
Alex
Hermine
Igor
Karl
Matthew
Nicole

2016
Earl
Matthew
Nicole
Otto

2020
Hanna
Laura
Sally
Teddy
Alpha
Beta
Delta
Zeta
Eta
Iota

The analog season have some memorable and deadly storms. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 dumped heavy rain over a large area of Central America. It led to massive flooding that claimed at least 12,000 lives. Mitch is the deadliest since the Great Hurricane of 1780. 1926 has the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. It would likely be the costliest if it happened today. 1931 had the British Honduras Hurricane, which claimed over 2,500 lives. 1958 had Alma and Ella impact Texas with heavy rain and flooding. 1977 had Anita, which was a powerful Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf Of Mexico. Alicia ravaged Southeast Texas inn 1983. 1977 and 1983 were less active seasons. 1995 was an active season with Luis, Marilyn, Opal, and Roxanne. Besides Mitch, there was Georges, which was a long lived and dangerous hurricane. Charley and Francis dumped heavy rain on Texas. 2005 was a brutal year. It can be summed up with Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma. New Orleans was flooded from levee failure, while Mississippi was utterly gutted by monster storm surge. Rita caused a scare in Texas before making landfall on Sabine Pass. Stan dumped heavy rain and flooding in Guatemala and Mexico. Wilma rapidly intensified into the most intense Atlantic hurricane known. Dean and Felix ravaged the Caribbean. Noel proved to be a disaster for Dominican Republic and Haiti. Texas had to contend with Erin and Humberto. Humberto formed quickly right before landfall a year to the day before Ike made landfall in 2008. 2010 had many storms form. Alex was a large storm that dumped heavy rain over Mexico and Texas. Igor was a monster hurricane that tracked across the Atlantic. 2016 had Matthew ravaged Haiti, Florida, and North Carolina with strong winds, heavy rain, and flooding. 2020 was active during the COVID pandemic. Laura and Delta ravaged Southwest Louisiana within weeks of each other. Zeta went over New Orleans as a Category 1 hurricane. Eta and Iota were cruel to Nicaragua. They made landfall weeks apart of each other. I am not suggesting 2024 will see another Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, 1931 British Honduras Hurricane, Alicia, Opal, Mitch, Katrina, Wilma, Dean, Alex, Matthew, Laura, or Iota.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms. It was created with QGIS. The hurricane data came from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS).

The Caribbean, Gulf Of Mexico, and Carolina Coasts look to have the most development. I never make landfall predictions. I strongly object to making landfall forecasts this early. I think it is irresponsible to make landfall predictions this early on. Everyone is at equal risk.

Here is a statistical analysis of analog seasons vs all season (1870-2023). It was done with PSPP.

Analog

Tropical Storm	Mean		14.77
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	10.03
		Upper Bound	19.51
	5% Trimmed Mean		14.52
	Median		14
	Variance		61.53
	Std. Deviation		7.84
	Minimum		4
	Maximum		30
	Range		26
	Interquartile Range		10.5
	Skewness		0.68
	Kurtosis		0.1
Hurricane	Mean		7.92
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	5.5
		Upper Bound	10.35
	5% Trimmed Mean		7.8
	Median		7
	Variance		16.08
	Std. Deviation		4.01
	Minimum		3
	Maximum		15
	Range		12
	Interquartile Range		7.5
	Skewness		0.3
	Kurtosis		-1.04
Major Hurricane	Mean		3.38
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	2
		Upper Bound	4.77
	5% Trimmed Mean		3.37
	Median		3
	Variance		5.26
	Std. Deviation		2.29
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		7
	Range		7
	Interquartile Range		4.5
	Skewness		0.08
	Kurtosis		-1.38
ACE	Mean		130.69
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	81.71
		Upper Bound	179.68
	5% Trimmed Mean		130.62
	Median		141.3
	Variance		6570.41
	Std. Deviation		81.06
	Minimum		17.4
	Maximum		245.3
	Range		227.9
	Interquartile Range		153.3
	Skewness		-0.03
	Kurtosis		-1.54
ACE/Storm	Mean		8.78
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	5.94
		Upper Bound	11.61
	5% Trimmed Mean		8.39
	Median		8.76
	Variance		21.98
	Std. Deviation		4.69
	Minimum		3.68
	Maximum		20.87
	Range		17.2
	Interquartile Range		6.05
	Skewness		1.42
	Kurtosis		2.81

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2023.

Tropical Storm	Mean		10.41
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	9.67
		Upper Bound	11.15
	5% Trimmed Mean		10.14
	Median		10
	Variance		21.76
	Std. Deviation		4.66
	Minimum		1
	Maximum		30
	Range		29
	Interquartile Range		6
	Skewness		1.05
	Kurtosis		2.09
Hurricane	Mean		5.66
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	5.24
		Upper Bound	6.09
	5% Trimmed Mean		5.55
	Median		5
	Variance		7.06
	Std. Deviation		2.66
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		15
	Range		15
	Interquartile Range		3
	Skewness		0.69
	Kurtosis		0.54
Major Hurricane	Mean		2.08
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	1.82
		Upper Bound	2.34
	5% Trimmed Mean		1.97
	Median		2
	Variance		2.71
	Std. Deviation		1.65
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		7
	Range		7
	Interquartile Range		2
	Skewness		0.86
	Kurtosis		0.24
ACE	Mean		94.82
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	86.25
		Upper Bound	103.39
	5% Trimmed Mean		91.46
	Median		84.25
	Variance		2897.5
	Std. Deviation		53.83
	Minimum		2.5
	Maximum		258.6
	Range		256.1
	Interquartile Range		74.22
	Skewness		0.88
	Kurtosis		0.37
ACE/Storm	Mean		9.2
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	8.58
		Upper Bound	9.82
	5% Trimmed Mean		9
	Median		8.6
	Variance		15.13
	Std. Deviation		3.89
	Minimum		1.83
	Maximum		21.68
	Range		19.86
	Interquartile Range		5.58
	Skewness		0.8
	Kurtosis		0.56

The 95% Confidence Interval for analog season vs the whole season is wide. Analog seasons are more active. It is largely due to many of the analog years being very active. I can use the statistical analysis to come up with a forecast.

What is my prediction for this season?
20 to 30 named storms, likely 25 named storms
10 to 16 hurricanes, likely 13 hurricanes
3 to 7 major hurricanes with 5 major hurricanes
ACE is 180 to 250 with ACE likely of 190 to 230

Let’s see how my April 2023 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2023 season.

10 to 15 named storms, likely 12 named storms
3 to 6 hurricanes, likely 5 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 70 to 140 with ACE likely of 80 to 100

Colorado State University
13/6/2 ACE: 100

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10-14 Storms/5-7 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 70-110

Tropical Storm Risk
12/6/2 ACE: 84

Accuweather
11-15 Storms/4-8 Hurricanes/1-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 75-105

Crown Weather
12/6/2 ACE: 90

The Weather Channel
15/7/3

Weather Tiger
13-18 Tropical Storms/5-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 65-135

University of Arizona
19/9/5 ACE: 163

North Carolina University
11-15 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes

2023 Actual Number
20 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
146 ACE

Many including myself got the forecast off. The 2023 Hurricane Season was more active than forecasted. Even with a strong El Nino, 2023 was quite an active season. It shows, El Nino is not the only factor. The Atlantic water was quite warm in 2023.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2024 could be an interesting hurricane season. It could be a harry one as I have said in the past. It only takes one to be a devastating season regardless of how inactive or active a season is. I would not be surprised if 2024 is an active season. I predict we could see 2 to 4 Category 5 hurricanes this season.

Leap Day 2024

It is Leap Day and it comes every four years. So, what is the weather like on Leap Day in Houston? Here is official weather records on February 29th. It is from NOWData – NOAA Online Weather Data.

Houston Weather Branch 1892-1968
Year High Low Average Rainfall
1892 60 45 53 0
1896 64 46 55 0
1904 84 62 74 0
1908 76 55 67 0
1912 58 47 53 0
1916 68 45 57 0.01
1920 48 37 43 0
1924 67 42 55 0
1928 75 33 64 T
1932 85 64 75 0
1936 71 50 61 0
1940 82 57 70 T
1944 62 45 54 0
1948 72 59 66 0.01
1952 83 58 71 0
1956 68 50 59 0
1960 53 49 51 0
1964 60 45 53 0
1968 49 39 44 0

Bush Intercontinental Airport 1969-2010
Year High Low Average Rainfall
1972 72 61 67 0.33
1976 78 57 68 0
1980 82 63 73 T
1984 55 28 42 0
1988 82 58 70 T
1992 82 48 65 0
1996 47 39 43 0.53
2000 80 57 69 T
2004 72 56 64 0.49
2008 78 57 68 T
2012 84 71 78 0
2016 78 55 67 0
2020 75 43 59 0

From 1892 to 2020, two (6.25%) Leap Days saw below 32°F, which were in 1928 and 1984. The winter of 1983-1984 was one of the coldest winters on record. Nine out of 32 (28.13%) Leap Day saw at least 80°F days. The warmest Leap Day occurred in 1932. Interestingly, it snowed on March 10, the latest measurable snowfall recorded in Houston. It is not very wet on Leap Day. In fact the record rainfall is 0.53 inches, which fell in 1996. It rained in 11 out of 32 (34.4%) Leap Day from 1924 to 2020. That includes trace of rain. There is more chance to see rain than to see 80°F Leap Days in Houston. There is no recorded snowfall on Leap Day in Houston.

Here are some interesting facts about Leap Day. Leap year occurs in year divisible by 4. However, there are exceptions when years that are divisible by 100, they are not leap unless they are divisible by 400. So the year 1900 is not Leap Year, while 2000 is Leap Year. That is why there is gap between 1896 to 1904. The purpose of Leap Year is meant to keep calendar in alignment with the Earth’s revolutions around the Sun, which is every 365 days, 5 hours, 48 minutes, and 46 seconds or 365.242199 days. Happy Leap Day!

Merry Christmas!

I like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas.

Hurricane Ike 15 Years Later

An original post from 2018 that is reposted and changed.

It is hard to believe it has been 15 years since Hurricane Ike made landfall on Southeast Texas as a monsterous Category 2 hurricane in the early morning hours of September 13, 2008. Between the fifteen years a lot has happened since Ike. Before Ike came crashing in, Cyclone Nargis ravaged Burma (Myanmar) and claimed over 138,000 lives. Not too long after, there is the Sichuan Earthquake that claims nearly 88,000 lives. Ike made landfall seven years after the devastating 9/11 Terrorist Attacks, which destroyed the World Trade Center and claimed nearly 3,000 lives. Ike came three years after Hurricane Katrina, Rita, and Wilma ravaged the US Coast. Four years after the Indian Ocean Tsunami that ravaged Indonesia and Thailand.

After Ike, comes the collapse of Lehman Brothers during a severe recession. There is the deadly Haitian Earthquake that claims up to 316,000 lives and the Deep Horizon Oil Spill in 2010. Japan was hit by a deadly Tsunami that led to the Fukushima Nuclear Meltdown in 2011. Harvey came and flooded out Southeast Texas with heavy rain over a large area in 2017. Then comes COVID pandemic, which started in 2019, but did not get noticed until 2020. Ukraine and Sudan are currently mired in war.

Ike pelted Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana with hurricane force winds and heavy rain. Ike was the last hurricane to hit Texas prior to Harvey. Almost a nine year gap of no hurricanes hitting Texas, let alone a major hurricane. The last major hurricane to hit Texas prior to Harvey was Bret in 1999, which is 18 years.

Thunderstorms over Sudan that later became Ike.

What is the origin of Hurricane Ike? Ike started as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that formed over Sudan on August 19th. Most tropical waves come from thunderstorms that form in the Northeast part of Africa. They are set off by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or monsoon. The ITCZ is where there is thunderstorms from the clash of trade winds. These thunderstorms often provide beneficial rains in tropical and subtropical areas. The thunderstorms in ITCZ can break away and travel away. One of those thunderstorms from the ITCZ managed to do that. The MCS traveled over Africa and entered the Atlantic Ocean as a tropical wave on August 29th. The tropical wave traveled across with multiple vortices competing. One of them would win out as the thunderstorms in the tropical wave get better organized on September 1, 2008. It is upgraded to Tropical Depression #9. Later that day, it is named Ike as it travels over the open Atlantic. Tropical Storm Ike has to deal with wind shear in the upper level early in its life. The wind shear blows tops of thunderstorms, especially westerly wind shear. Since 2008 season is Neutral to La Nina, conditions are more favorable as there is less westerly wind shear. If 2008 was El Nino, there would be more westerly wind shear, which is why generally El Nino Atlantic Hurricane seasons see less storms. Wind shear generally kills tropical development. The higher the storm clouds are, the cooler it is. Higher storm clouds also mean they are more intense.

However, Ike gets a reprieve as the wind shear weakens and encounter warmer waters on September 3rd. This allows Ike to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane. By the next day, Ike becomes 2008’s strongest hurricane with 145 mph 126 knots 233 km/h winds and central pressure of 935 millibars. Ike’s strength did not last as it encountered wind shear on September 5th. The wind shear weaken Ike to Category 2 strength.

Hurricane Ike around its peak.

Ike is pushed southwards into more favorable areas due to upper level ridge to the north. Ike becomes a Category 4 hurricane as conditions are more favorable. As it goes westward, Ike made its first landfall on Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 4 hurricane on the early morning hours of September 7th. The Turks and Caicos Islands are the first to feel Ike’s violent wrath in the form of strong winds, heavy rain, storm surge, and high waves. The South Caicos and Grand Turk take the brunt of Ike. Despite Ike’s fury, there are no reports of fatalities.

Damage in Grand Turk.

While Ike is ravaging the Turks and Caicos Islands, the outer bands of Ike are dumping heavy rain on Haiti and Dominican Republic, which have been ravaged by Fay, Gustav, and Hanna. The flooding from Ike claims 74 lives in Haiti and 2 in Dominican Republic. Prior to Ike, Tropical Storm Hanna ravaged Haiti and Dominican Republic with heavy rain that led to massive flooding. The flooding claims 529 lives in Haiti, while just one dies in Dominican Republic. Why did Haiti see more fatalities than Dominican Republic? The lack of trees in Haiti makes it even more vulnerable to mudslides from the mountains. The heavy rain causes deadly mudslides that destroys houses and kill people.

Stranded Cubans following Ike.

Once Ike passes Turks and Caicos Island, Ike heads for Cuba. The hurricane makes landfall on Cabo Lucrecia, Holguín Province, Cuba. Cuba is in a very rough ride with Ike as it traverses over the entire island nation. Cuba is being pelted by heavy rain, strong wind, high waves, and storm surge. Briefly, Ike goes over the water only to make a second landfall on Punta La Capitana, Pinar del Río, Cuba on September 8th as a Category 1 hurricane. Ike claims 7 lives in Cuba.

Ike near its secondary peak in Gulf of Mexico.

Once Ike exits Cuba, it is a large Category 1 hurricane. Ike traveling over all of Cuba caused the storm to expand as energy is spread out from land interaction. It also disrupted Ike’s core. Ike enters large area of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and is getting close to the Loop Current, which is one of the warmest spot. Ike rapidly deepen from 963 to 944 millibars on the night of September 10th as it was over the Loop Current. However, the wind did not strengthen much, only from 80 to 100 mph 70 knots to 87 knots 128 km/h to 161 km/h. The reason is Ike is a very large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 125 miles 109 nautical miles 201 kilometers from the eye. The pressure gradient is not tight due to its large size. Normally, an Atlantic hurricane with central pressure of 944 millibars is a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.

On September 11th, as America remembers and reflects the seventh anniversary of the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks, Southeast Texas is sunny and dry. The west side of a hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere is usually the “clean” side. It blows in dry and sinking air from the north. The nice sunny day is very deceptive as Ike is ever inching closer. Meanwhile in the Gulf of Mexico, Ike is generating massive waves that are heading towards the Texas and Louisiana. Ike continues across the Gulf of Mexico as a large Category 2 hurricane. Waves are coming ahead of Ike in coastal Texas. People are evacuating from coastal areas including Galveston. Some choose to stay behind. The outer cloud banks of Ike are over Southeast Texas as winds start to pick up. By the afternoon of September 12th, some coastal areas are getting squally weather from the feeder bands entering Texas.

By the night of September 12th, conditions have gotten much worse. Meanwhile in Houston area, it is still windy with occasionally light rain. As the night progresses, Ike is getting closer to landfall. The hurricane force winds enter Texas around the late hours of September 12th. Ike is getting stronger and developing a more organized eyewall. Ike now has a central pressure of 951 millibars and 110 mph 96 knots 177 km/h winds. Ike is a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 125 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 260 miles 226 nautical miles 418 kilometers.

Ike at landfall on Southeast Texas.

Highest wind gust possible based on multiplying by factor of 1.5.

By the early morning hours of September 13th, Houston area is seeing stronger winds and heavier rain. Power starts to go out throughout Southeast Texas as power lines are being knocked by the strong wind. The coastal areas are seeing storm surge getting higher and higher. Anyone who stayed behind in Galveston or Bolivar Peninsula are doomed by the massive storm surge. Ike makes landfall on the eastern end of Galveston Island at 2:10 AM Central Time. People who are staying behind in the coastal areas are wishing they had evacuated as they are surrounded by rising storm surge. Ike travels to the northwest towards Houston. By 4:00 AM, Ike is over Baytown, which is flooded by storm surge. A large area of Southeast Texas is getting hurricane force winds including all of Houston.

Highest sustained winds during Hurricane Ike.

Bolivar Peninsula following Ike.

By the time the Sun rises, Ike is still ravaging Southeast Texas despite the fact it has weakened to Category 1 hurricane. Ike remains a monsterous and very dangerous hurricane. Many areas are still seeing heavy rain and strong winds. The wind blow down numerous trees and damage many buildings and houses. There is widespread flooding reported throughout Southeast Texas. Bayous and rivers are overflowing from widespread heavy rain. Coastal areas had storm surge as high as 25 feet/7.6 meters. It is one of the highest storm surge recorded in America and highest in Texas. It exceeds Camille, but below Katrina. Bolivar Peninsula saw the highest storm surge as the whole area looked like if a nuclear bomb had exploded. Once it is all over, many buildings and houses are damaged or destroyed, while many trees are uprooted. Coastal areas are utterly gutted from the massive storm surge. Millions of people are out of power for days. A large area saw 6 to 12 inches/15.2 to 30.5 centimeters of rain from Ike.

The damage is not just limited to Texas. Louisiana also felt the brunt of Ike, especially in Southwestern Louisiana. It is the same area that had been ravaged by Hurricane Rita in 2005. Many areas are flooded by Ike. There is even flooding in New Iberia, which is in Central Louisiana. It shows that Ike’s massive size had a huge impact over a large area from Texas to Louisiana. This is despite the fact that they only got tropical storm force winds. It shows that large, but not so strong hurricane is very dangerous as it produces massive storm surge and high waves.

Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front in the early morning hours of September 14, 2008.

The following night, a cold front passes, which allows thunderstorms to form from moisture left by Ike. The storms dumped 5 to 8 inches/12.7 to 20.3 centimeters of rain. The heavy rain causes more flooding on top of what Ike dumped in Southeast Texas. Once the rain ended, many areas saw a two day total ranging from 10 to 20 inches/25.4 to 50.8 centimeters of rain. Meanwhile, the remnants of Ike continue to wreak havoc in the Midwest. Ohio see hurricane force gusts, which causes more power outages. The remains of Ike continue into Canada and dump heavy rain in Ontario and Quebec. A total of 112 people lost their life with 34 unaccounted for in America. Most of the deaths are in Texas, where 84 people died.

Rainfall total from September 12, 2008 to September 15, 2008.

So, how was 2008 like prior to Ike. The winter of 2007-2008 is La Nina, so it is warmer and drier. Despite the La Nina, there are storms. Spring of 2008 is mostly dry. There were days of pleasant weather in Spring 2008. Summer of 2008 is average in terms of temperature and rainfall. Texas first brush with a hurricane is Dolly, which affected South Texas. The outer bands of Dolly dump heavy rain in the Houston area. Not too long after Dolly came, Tropical Storm Edouard pays a visit to Houston area. It is a rather unremarkable tropical storm that dumps up to 6 inches of rain. Edouard moves inland and gives beneficial rains to drought ridden Central Texas.

NHC Hurricane Ike Report
NHC Hurricane Ike Advisory Report
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)

Intensifying Idalia

Hurricane Idalia over the Gulf of Mexico.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL102023#tab2

Hurricane Franklin is the first major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic Season. It is a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds as of 11:00 PM AST per National Hurricane Center (NHC). It peaked as a Category 4 hurricane. However, it is over the open Atlantic and poses little threat at this time. Right now, my main concern is Hurricane Idalia. It is a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds as of 11:00 PM EDT. However, looking at satellite images, there is a tiny eye and circular shape suggests it is likely intensifying. Here is the intensity forecast model from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

Most forecast models have Idalia as a Category 3 hurricane with one as a Category 4 hurricane. I consider intensity forecast models unreliable. I think Idalia is going to be a Category 4 hurricane by morning. It may even be a Category 5 hurricane. The water is quite warm. Here is a Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity for the Gulf of Mexico. It is courtesy of Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA).

Idalia is over water that could support 880 millibars and winds of over 175 mph (150 knots). It does have the potential to be a Category 5 hurricane if conditions are right. I am most inclined to predict that Idalia will be a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. The most pressing is where Idalia will make landfall. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most forecast models have Idalia heading towards the Big Bend of Florida. Big Bend is prone to storm surge due to large area of shallow water and shape of a funnel. Bays are vulnerable to storm surge as they have shallow water and funnel shape. Think Gavleston or Tampa Bay, which is one of the high risk area for storm surge. New Orleans, Houston, New York City, and Bangladesh are high risk for storm surge. Here is a storm surge map from the NHC. It is a potential storm surge flooding map.

Some areas could see up to 15 feet storm surge, which is quite high. It could flood land areas with over 9 feet of water. That is dangerous storm surge. Anyone in the storm surge area should evacuate. Another factor for storm surge is size of storm and forward speed. Idalia is moving at 18 mph, which is rather fast. The speed could prevent Idalia from becoming a Category 5 hurricane. It is also a smaller hurricane. Here is a map wind radii for Idalia from NHC.

Tropical storm force winds extend up to 160 miles. Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles from the eye. Parts of Florida are already dealing with tropical storm force wind. The smaller size and relative fast speed of Idalia could make it less of a storm surge threat. Regardless, storm surge will be a dangerous threat for Florida.

Hurricane Idalia is going to be a dangerous hurricane. Anyone in storm surge area should of evacuated by now. Anyone inland should hide from the wind. It is going to be a rough ride.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Idalia will likely be Category 4 or 5 hurricane by morning.
-Idalia will likely make landfall on Florida by morning and near peak.
-Mostly will be a storm surge and wind event.

Tropical Depression 9 Or Future Harold?

Tropical Depression 9 over Gulf of Mexico.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=gm

The Atlantic has heated up after it was dormant. Emily, Franklin, and Gert have formed. Only Franklin remains, but is out in the Caribbean. This brings us to Tropical Depression 9 or future Harold. Interestingly, Harold replaces Harvey, which ravaged Texas with heavy rain and flooding in 2017. I do not think this will be a repeat of Harvey by any stretch. Tropical Depression 9 is a tropical depression as of 10:00 PM CDT per National Hurricane Center. It has been hot and dry in Texas, so any rain is welcome. That leads to the question, where does Tropical Depression 9 go?

Here is the most recent forecast model for where Harold will go. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most of the forecast models have Tropical Depression 9 heading towards South Texas. Some go far south as the mouth of Rio Grande River to far north as Corpus Christi. Most models have it going towards South Texas. There is a remote chance it could go towards Southeast Texas, but that is unlikely at this time. It currently remains a tropical depression. Here is the intensity forecast model from NCAR.

Most forecast models keep it as a tropical storm for a short time. One has it as a Category 1 hurricane, which keeps at as one far inland. The Gulf of Mexico is warm and can support Category 5 hurricane if conditions are right. Here is a Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity for the Gulf of Mexico. It is courtesy of Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA).

I would not be surprised if Harold becomes a strong tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane before landfall. A major hurricane is unlikely as it is moving rather quickly. That would keep a lid on any further intensification. Tropical Depression 9 also has to deal with strong wind shear. Here is a wind shear map from CIMSS.

Wind shear and fast motion speed are likely to keep Harold as a tropical storm to Category 1 hurricane before landfall. Tropical cyclones have rapidly intensified right before making landfall on Texas. Something to not rule out with Harold. The satellite image of Tropical Depression 9 suggests it could be intensifying. There is also lightning near the center of future Harold. Here is a lightning flash map from GOES-East CONUS – Geostationary Lightning Mapper.

There was plenty of lightning near the center. It appears to have tapered off in terms of lighting. The circular shape also suggests it could be a tropical storm later tonight. The bandings around the tropical depression is also a sign Harold is about to form soon.

As with tropical systems, they often bring rain. How much rain will fall from future Harold? Here are rainfall forecast totals between August 21, 2023 to August 28, 2023. They are from Weather.US. The forecast models are:
GFS (American)
EURO (European)
ICON (Germany)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)
JMA (Japanese)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)

The Korean has the highest amount of 19.70 inches of rain. The Japanese has the lowest amount of 4.80 inches. Quite a wide range forecast in terms of rainfall. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. I look at rainfall total forecast.

Mean	9.40
Median	7.50
Standard Deviation	5.00
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound	4.78
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound	14.02

The mean rainfall total is 9.40 inches with median of 7.50 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 4.78 inches to 14.02 inches. It is probable the rainfall total will be somewhere between 4 to 14 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be below 4 inches or over 14 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the rainfall total is probably going to be somewhere between 4 to 14 inches of rain. More than likely, it is over 4 inches of rain.

I suspect most areas will see between 1 to 3 inches of rain. Some areas could get over 6 inches. I would not rule out 12 inches or higher once it is all over. All the forecast models do have rain over Southeast Texas. The Japanese has the highest with 4 inches of rain in the next 7 days.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Tropical Depression 9 will be Harold by morning.
-Tropical Depression 9/Harold is likely to make landfall on South Texas.
-Most areas in Texas will see rain.

Historic Hillary

Hurricane Hilary at 19.1°N – 112.4°W
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=EP092023#homePageLink

Hurricane Hillary is a monster hurricane as a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds as of 10:00 PM CST. It is quite large for a East Pacific Hurricane as it it has tropical storm force winds extending up to 255 miles! Most East Pacific hurricanes are small as the basin is smaller than Atlantic or West Pacific. The East Pacific produces many hurricanes due to warm water, less dry air, and North American Monsoon. Monsoon spin up thunderstorm clouds. In fact, it is the second most active basin in the world. Only the West Pacific is most active. Typhoon is for West Pacific, which is west of the International Date Line.

Here is the most recent forecast model for where Hillary will go. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most of the forecast models have Hillary heading northwards towards Baja California. From there, it could remain over Baja California or stay over the ocean and head towards Southern California. How intense will Hillary be by the time it comes close to Southern California? Here is an intensity forecast model from NCAR.

Most forecast models have Hillary weakening in 24 hours. The NVGI has it intensifying further. I would not be surprised if Hillary does intensify further. I think Hillary is most likely to weaken further. Most forecast models have Hillary as a tropical storm before it hits Southern California.

Tropical cyclones have hit Southern California in the past. It last happened in 1939, when it made landfall around Long Beach. It has been dubbed “El Cordonazo” or “The Lash of St Francis”, which is named by Mexican fishermen. The once hurricane dumped heavy rain over large area of Southern California. Some areas saw nearly a foot of rain. The storm claimed nearly 100 lives. San Diego was hit by a hurricane in 1858. The only recorded hurricane to hit California. It is very likely California has been hit by hurricanes prior to 1858. It reportedly dump heavy rain over a large area of Southern California. Both occurred during El Nino. East Pacific is more active during El Nino.

Tropical cyclones rarely hit California because the water is cooler, compared to the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Tropical cyclone remnants have impacted California and the American Southwest. They often provide beneficial rains.

Here are rainfall forecast totals between August 18, 2023 to August 28, 2023. They are from Weather.US. The forecast models are:
GFS (American)
EURO (European)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)
JMA (Japanese)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)

GFS (American)

EURO (European)

GDAPS/UM (South Korea)

JMA (Japanese)

GEM (Canadian)

CMA (China)

The Canadian has the highest amount of 11.00 inches of rain. The Japanese has the lowest amount of 6.00 inches. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. I look at rainfall total forecast.

Mean	8.38
Median	8.15
Standard Deviation	1.82
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound	6.47
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound	10.30

The mean rainfall total is 8.38 inches with median of 8.15 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 6.47 inches to 10.30 inches. It is probable the rainfall total will be somewhere between 7 to 11 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be below 7 inches or over 11 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the rainfall total is probably going to be somewhere between 7 to 11 inches of rain. More than likely, it is over 7 inches of rain.

I would not be surprised if some areas see over a foot rain. It would mostly likely be in the mountainous areas of California and Arizona. Mountainous areas on windward side are very wet. In fact, some of the wettest areas in the world are in mountainous areas.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Hillary is likely to weaken overnight.
-Hillary could make landfall on Baja California.
-Hillary is likely to make landfall as a tropical storm on Southern California.

Hurricane Alicia, 40 Years Later

An original post from 2013 that is reposted and changed.

It has been 40 years ago at this very moment that Hurricane Alicia ravaged Southeast Texas, centered in the Houston metropolitan area. Hurricane Alicia came during the Cold War between America and Soviet Union. The Cold War ended in 1991 and underwent change. The world changed with 9/11 and COVID Pandemic.

The winter of 1982-1983 was an extremely strong El Nino. It was the strongest prior to winter of 1997-1998. It is one reason why 1983 Hurricane Season was inactive because the Pacific was coming off of a strong El Nino. There was a tornado outbreak in the early morning hours of May 20, 1983. It would be the last major tornado outbreak in the Houston area until November 21, 1992. Summer of 1983 was a wet one. In early August, an unusual cold front passes Southeast Texas, setting off thunderstorms as warm and moist air clashes with cool and drier air. Once the cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) forms near the coast of Alabama and Mississippi on August 14th. A MCS is a large area of thunderstorms with a center of low pressure.

The area of thunderstorms continues to persist that a low pressure system forms on August 15th. By 7:00 AM CST, the area of thunderstorms became Tropical Depression 3. It is unusual to see a tropical cyclone development from a frontal boundary in August. It is more likely to do so early or late in the season because cold fronts usually do not go into the Gulf of Mexico. Later that day, Tropical Depression 3 became Tropical Storm Alicia with 50 mph winds. It was strengthening due to favorable conditions. Also, Alicia was a relatively small storm and was in an area of higher ambient pressure. Alicia was moving slowly to the west-northwest towards Texas.

On August 17th, Alicia becomes the first hurricane of the 1983 season. It is slowly moving south-southwest of Galveston. Galveston has been hit by hurricanes in the past. It is also where the deadliest hurricane and natural disaster in American history, the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. It made landfall southwest of Galveston on September 8, 1900. It claimed 12,000 lives, which is more lives lost than the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake (6,000), September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks (3,000), and Hurricane Katrina (1,836) combined.

What is Galveston doing to prepare for the onslaught of Alicia? They are ordering people to evacuate and take cover on high ground. They evacuate to avoid storm surge produced by the hurricane. Before hand, when the National Hurricane Center (NHC) were issuing gale warnings and they were not taken seriously. Galveston Mayor E. Gus Manuel ordered an evacuation on storm surge vulnerable areas. Conditions begin to worsen in Galveston. By midnight of August 18th, Mayor Manuel orders a mandatory evacuation, which is by than too late. Bridges are inaccessible due to deteriorating weather condition in Galveston.

Alicia undergoes rapid intensification and becomes the first and only major hurricane of the 1983 season. It is getting ever so closer to Galveston. Waves are getting larger, storm surge is getting higher, wind is getting stronger, and rain is getting heavier. Alicia is getting close to make landfall. People who are trying to evacuate are realizing they made a huge mistake. Their complacency proved to be a decision they would regret. The last time, an evacuation was called was in August 1980 when Hurricane Allen was in the Gulf of Mexico. Allen was a Category 5 hurricane before it made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in South Texas. Galvestonians thought they dodged a bullet again. They were proven very wrong. In some cases, it proved deadly.

A little after 1:00 AM, Alicia made landfall southwest of Galveston as a major hurricane. Galveston was getting hammered with strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surge. At landfall, Alicia was slightly larger than average. It had gale force winds extending up to 125 miles and hurricane force winds extending up to 60 miles from the eye. Alicia was not done with Texas. It was moving to the northwest towards the city of Houston. Everyone in Houston had hunkered down for Alicia. It was a very long night.

As Alicia moved further inland, it was weakening, but it did little to quell the fears of Houstonians. Houston was getting violently lashed by Alicia with heavy rain and strong winds. To make matter worse, tornadoes were spawned by Alicia. An area from Hobby Airport to Galveston were hammered by tornadoes. Power lines and transformers were getting blown away. Power outages were wide spread throughout the Houston area. By the time Alicia was over Downtown Houston, it had weakened to a borderline Tropical Storm/Category 1 hurricane. However, the winds were lashing Downtown Houston. The strong winds turned pebbles into bullets, which were on roofs of these at the time new skyscrapers. The pebbles damaged many windows on those downtown buildings. As Alicia progressed, it was weakening into a tropical storm and dumping heavy rain. There was widespread flooding in Southeast Texas from Alicia’s heavy rain. Many areas in the Houston area saw 6 to 10 inches of rain with isolated totals of 11 inches. This is flooding on top of storm surge that flooded coastal areas.

The next morning, people woke up to widespread damage from Alicia. Trees were knocked down, damaging houses, flooding streets, and no power. People are wondering what to do next, rebuild or not. To make matters worse, 21 people died from Alicia. All in all, Alicia did $2.6 billion dollars in damage, making it at the time, the most costliest hurricane in Texas. The name Alicia would be retired from the hurricane name list and be replaced with the name Allison.

Allison was first used in 1989 and it ravages Southeast Texas in the form of a tropical storm that dumps heavy rain. Also, it would ravage Central Louisiana, giving them record rainfall. However, that would not be the last time, Allison would visit Texas. In June of 2001, Tropical Storm Allison visits again and this time it proved to be catastrophic on June 8-9, 2001. Allison dumps extremely heavy rain over Houston and causes $5.5 billion in damages and claims 22 lives. As a result, Allison was retired and replaced with the name, Andrea.

Alicia would not be the last catastrophic hurricane to visit Houston-Galveston area. On September 13, 2008, Ike made landfall on Galveston. Ike was not as strong as Alicia in terms of wind, but was much larger, on the scale of Carla (1961) or Katrina (2005). Ike was extremely catastrophic for Texas and Louisiana, that it is the third most costliest hurricane, only Katrina and Sandy exceed Ike. 84 people in Texas lost their life from Ike and did a total of $37.5 billion in damages basin wide. Hurricane Harvey paid a visit to Texas in August 2017. Harvey dumped heavy rain over a large area. Many areas in Texas and Louisiana had 30 to 40 inches with amounts as high as 80 inches of rain! Harvey claimed a total of 103 lives and did $125 billion in damages. Harvey ties with Katrina as the costliest hurricane in America as of 2023.

NHC-Hurricane Alicia Preliminary Report
Committee On Natural Disasters Hurricane Alicia
Weather Prediction Center-Hurricane Alicia

April 2023 Hurricane Season Forecast

Hurricane Ian just made landfall on Florida on September 28, 2022.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/Sandwich/

2023 is proven to be just a turbulent year, like this decade so far. Sudan and Ukraine are engulfed in war. The 2020s has been a turbulent decade so far. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2023. Here are other forecasts. ACE is short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Colorado State University
13/6/2 ACE: 100

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10-14 Storms/5-7 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 70-110

Tropical Storm Risk
12/6/2 ACE: 84

Accuweather
11-15 Storms/4-8 Hurricanes/1-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 75-105

Crown Weather
12/6/2 ACE: 90

The Weather Channel
15/7/3

Weather Tiger
13-18 Tropical Storms/5-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 65-135

University of Arizona
19/9/5 ACE: 163

North Carolina University
11-15 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes

The analog years I am using are in which La Nina is fading away and going into El Nino. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain with another La Nina, El Nino, or Neutral.

Based on this, the analog years are 1876, 1899, 1957, 1963, 1997, 2006, 2009, and 2018. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), New Zealand Warm Pool (NZWP), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR). Here is the ocean temperature anomaly map. It is from Tropical Tidbits.

Analog Years For 2023 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1876 (5/4/2 57 11.4)
1899 (10/5/2 151 15.1)
1957 (8/3/2 79 9.8)
1963 (10/7/3 112 11.2)
1997 (8/3/1 41 5.1)
2006 (10/5/2 83 8.3)
2009 (9/3/2 53 5.8)
2018 (15/8/2 133 8.8

All of the seasons had major hurricane. The most active is 2018 with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that goes to 1899 with ACE of 151. However, this is before satellite, it is likely 1899 is more active. Any season before satellite should be considered suspect. Even in satellite, some data is rather questionable.

Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.

1876
1876 San Felipe Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Cuba-South Florida Hurricane of 1876 (Hurricane #5)

1899
Tropical Storm #1
1899 Carrabelle Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899 (Hurricane #3)
Hurricane #4
Hurricane #5

1957
Audrey

1963
Cindy
Edith
Flora
Ginny
Helena

1997
Danny
Erika

2006
Alberto
Ernesto

2009
Bill
Ida

2018
Michael

The analog season has some deadly and memorable storms. One of the deadliest hurricanes is Flora, which claimed over 8,000 lives in Cuba. Flora dumped over 150 inches of rain on Cuba, which led to massive flooding. Flora remains one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to this day. San Ciriaco Hurricane is a long lived major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico. It claimed more than 3,800 lives. Flora and San Ciriaco Hurricane remain some of the deadliest Atlantic as of today. The 1899 Tropical Storm #1 dumped heavy rain over a large area in Texas. Hearne got 35 inches of rain. The flooding claimed 284 lives. It was the largest rainfall event prior to Harvey. Hurricane Danny dumped nearly 38 inches of rain in Dauphin Island as it lingered over Alabama. Audrey ravaged East Texas and Southwest Louisiana in June 1957. Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane on the Florida Panhandle. It was at its peak of 160 mph and 919 millibars. I am not suggesting 2023 will see something like Tropical Storm #1 (1899), San Ciriaco Hurricane, Flora, and Michael.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms. It was created with QGIS. The hurricane data came from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS).

The Carolinas, Florida Panhandle, and Windward Islands looks to have the most development. I never make landfall predictions. I strongly object to making landfall forecasts this early. I think it is irresponsible to make landfall predictions this early on. Everyone is at equal risk.

Here is a statistical analysis of analog seasons vs all season. It was done with PSPP.

Analog

Tropical Storm	Mean		9.38
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	7.01
		Upper Bound	11.74
	5% Trimmed Mean		9.31
	Median		9.5
	Variance		7.98
	Std. Deviation		2.83
	Minimum		5
	Maximum		15
	Range		10
	Interquartile Range		2
	Skewness		0.76
	Kurtosis		2.5
Hurricane	Mean		4.75
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	3.15
		Upper Bound	6.35
	5% Trimmed Mean		4.67
	Median		4.5
	Variance		3.64
	Std. Deviation		1.91
	Minimum		3
	Maximum		8
	Range		5
	Interquartile Range		3.5
	Skewness		0.8
	Kurtosis		-0.62
Major Hurricane	Mean		2
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	1.55
		Upper Bound	2.45
	5% Trimmed Mean		2
	Median		2
	Variance		0.29
	Std. Deviation		0.53
	Minimum		1
	Maximum		3
	Range		2
	Interquartile Range		0
	Skewness		0
	Kurtosis		3.5
ACE	Mean		88.54
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	55.29
		Upper Bound	121.79
	5% Trimmed Mean		87.71
	Median		81
	Variance		1581.66
	Std. Deviation		39.77
	Minimum		40.9
	Maximum		151
	Range		110.1
	Interquartile Range		73.75
	Skewness		0.47
	Kurtosis		-1.19

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2022.

Tropical Storm	Mean		10.35
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	9.61
		Upper Bound	11.08
	5% Trimmed Mean		10.08
	Median		10
	Variance		21.29
	Std. Deviation		4.61
	Minimum		1
	Maximum		30
	Range		29
	Interquartile Range		6
	Skewness		1.07
	Kurtosis		2.28
Hurricane	Mean		5.65
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	5.23
		Upper Bound	6.08
	5% Trimmed Mean		5.55
	Median		5
	Variance		7.1
	Std. Deviation		2.66
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		15
	Range		15
	Interquartile Range		3
	Skewness		0.7
	Kurtosis		0.54
Major Hurricane	Mean		2.07
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	1.81
		Upper Bound	2.34
	5% Trimmed Mean		1.96
	Median		2
	Variance		2.73
	Std. Deviation		1.65
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		7
	Range		7
	Interquartile Range		2
	Skewness		0.87
	Kurtosis		0.24
ACE	Mean		94.49
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	85.89
		Upper Bound	103.09
	5% Trimmed Mean		91.09
	Median		84.2
	Variance		2899.49
	Std. Deviation		53.85
	Minimum		2.5
	Maximum		258.6
	Range		256.1
	Interquartile Range		72.45
	Skewness		0.9
	Kurtosis		0.41

The 95% Confidence Interval for analog season vs the whole season is wide. Analog seasons generally to edge towards less active. I can use the statistical analysis to come up with a forecast.

What is my prediction for this season?
10 to 15 named storms, likely 12 named storms
3 to 6 hurricanes, likely 5 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 70 to 140 with ACE likely of 80 to 100

Let’s see how my May 2022 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2022 season.

12 to 22 named storms, likely 17 named storms
6 to 14 hurricanes, likely 10 hurricanes
2 to 6 major hurricanes with 4 major hurricanes
ACE is 120 to 200 with ACE likely of 130 to 190

Colorado State University
19/9/4 ACE: 160

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
18-22 Storms/6-10 Hurricanes/2-4 Major Hurricanes ACE: 140-180

Tropical Storm Risk
18/8/4 ACE: 138

Accuweather
16-20 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 120-150

Crown Weather
21/9/4 ACE: 105-200

The Weather Channel
20/8/4

Weather Tiger
16-23 Tropical Storms/7-11 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 105-200

University of Arizona
14/7/3 ACE: 129

North Carolina University
17-21 Storms/6-9 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes

2022 Actual Number
14 Named Storms
8 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes
95 ACE

The 2022 Hurricane Season was less active than forecasted. The number of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricane were within range. The forecasted ACE was under compared to the actual ACE. There is always room for improvement.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2023 could be an interesting hurricane season. It could be a harry one as I have said in the past. It only takes one to be a devastating season regardless of how inactive or active a season is. 2022 proved well with Fiona and Ian, which is the third costliest season. Only 2017 and 2005 are more costlier than 2022. This is without any adjustment to inflation.

Merry Christmas

I like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas.