Tropical Storm Cindy For 6/21/2017 2200 CDT

Tropical Storm Cindy is getting closer to land. The latest position from National Hurricane Center is 95 miles or 153 kilometers from Port Arthur, Texas as of 10:00 PM or 2200 CDT. Here is the latest Doppler radar image out of NWS Lake Charles.

It is moving 7 mph or 11 kilometers north-northwest. Cindy could make landfall between 3:00 AM to 5:00 AM or 0300 to 0500 CDT at this rate. The question is where Cindy will make landfall.

The data is from UCAR, to be more specific from ATCF data file. I also included the 5 day cone from National Hurricane Center.Looks to make landfall in East Texas our Southwest Louisiana. Still cannot rule a landfall closer to Houston at this time as tropical cyclones tend to wobble. The area around the center of Cindy has produced heavy rain.

Many areas have seen 1 to 2 inches or 2.54 to 5.08 centimeters of rain per hour. Doppler radar estimates the heaviest rainfall rate is 4 inches or 10.16 centimeters per hour! Some areas could see as much as 5 inch or 12.7 centimeters per hour!

Many areas have seen 3 to 6 inches or 7.62 to 15.24 centimeters of rain based on Doppler radar estimates. The highest is 11 inches or 27.94 centimeters of rain. Again, Doppler radar tends to underestimate rainfall totals. I suspect the highest rainfall total is around 12 to 14 inches or 30.48 to 35.56 centimeters of of rain. I think Houston area could see rain from Cindy, especially later tonight. Rainfall total should be about 1 to 3 inches or 2.54 to 7.62 centimeters with amount as high as 5 inches or 12.7 centimeters of rain. I would not be surprised if thunderstorms form on the west side of Cindy and dumps heavy rain over the Houston area while you sleep.

Once Cindy makes landfall, where does it go? Could it stall out over Texas and dump more heavy rain like Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 did? Or could it just move away from Texas? Here is the next 5 day forecast model.

The cone and heat map has Cindy moving towards Arkansas. No forecast model has Cindy stalling over Texas. It can be possible that Cindy will stall over Texas, but that is unlikely at this point. The forecast models are divided where Cindy will go once inland. It can go to the Midwest and Canada or go all the way to the East Coast. Right now, we should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cindy as it is getting closer to land.

Latest On Typhoon Haima As Of 10:00 PM CST October 19, 2016

Typhoon Haima made landfall as a Category 4 typhoon on Baguio Point in the Cagayan Province with 140 mph winds. The highest wind on land is 119 mph with gusts of 179 mph. The highest measured gust was 124 mph, which is no picnic. One weather station recorded 7 inches of rain in one hour! That would cause a flood for sure. 7 inches of rain in one hour has happened in Southeast Texas during Tropical Storm Allison on June 8-9, 2001. That resulted in 28 inches of rain in 12 hours! As of right now, Haima is a Category 2 typhoon with 110 mph winds. Haima is moving at 14 mph west northwest.

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Where, Typhoon Haima go next after it ravaged the Philippines? Most have Haima making landfall on the Southern China coast. Hong Kong and Macau are also at risk for landfall. That part of China is heavily populated. Everyone China should prepare for Haima as it can be a dangerous storm for them. Interestingly, some models have Haima lopping back towards the Philippines again, like Hurricane Matthew with Florida. That never happened by the way.

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How intense will Haima be by the time it is on China’s door step? Despite being a Category 2 typhoon, Haima is forecast to weaken. It could still maintain its intensity and get stronger. Intensity forecast is not an exact science. One factor is when Haima gets closer to China, it will draw in dry air, which can weaken Haima further. Most forecast have Haima making landfall as a Category 1 typhoon with 92 mph winds. That means most areas will see 50 to 75 mph winds with gusts of 75 to 85 mph.

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Haima is going to be more of a rain maker. Many areas could see 8 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals of 20 inches. Even if Haima makes landfall as a Category 1 typhoon, it should not be taken lightly. Heavy rain and flooding will be the main issue for China.

Latest On Typhoon Haima As Of 10:00 PM CST October 18, 2016

Super Typhoon Haima is now a Category 5 typhoon with 160 mph winds and central pressure of somewhere between 904 to 930 millibars. This is not measured directly. Hurricane force winds extend up to 60 miles, while tropical storm force winds extend up to 210 miles. It has grown as it has intensified. Where it does is very concerning. Haima is moving 16 mph to the west northwest. It looks to affect the Philippines in the next day.

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Looks to be making landfall on the Northern Philippines as a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds. The size forecast is also worrying. Haima is getting larger. By the time it is over the Philippines, hurricane force winds could extend up to 75 miles with tropical storm force winds extending up to 260 miles. Once it crosses over and weakens, but tropical storm force wind field gets larger.

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Once Haima passes Philippines, it is likely to weaken. The forecast models do not have Haima intensifying into a Category 3 storm once it passes Philippines. I think it has the potential to intensify into a Category 3 typhoon before it makes landfall on China.

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Another concerning aspect of Haima is heavy rain. Many areas could see 6 to 12 inches of rain. Mountainous areas could see 20 to 30 inches of rain. This can lead to deadly flooding on top heavy rain that has fallen from Typhoon Sarika. The heavy rain from Haima will make things worse. On top of the heavy rain and flooding, Philipines could likely see sustained winds of 80 to 120 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 180 mph! The highest sustained winds are in a small area and very few will experience it. The gusts is more dangerous as it can knock things over quickly! The Philippines better prepare for Haima. It will get very rough for them.

Latest On Hurricane Nicole As Of 8:00 PM AST October 12, 2016

Hurricane Nicole is now the third major hurricane of the season. This hurricane has been around when Matthew was ravaging the Haiti, Cuba, and Southeaster US. Nicole has always carried along being overshadowed by Matthew. Now, Nicole has proven herself well despite Matthew. It has 115 mph winds and central pressure of 956 millibars. It is impressive on satellite.

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Hurricane Nicole has hurricane force winds extending up to 45 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 160 miles. Since, Bermuda is an island, they could easily experience 115 mph winds with gusts as high as 173 mph! Most likely, they will see winds of 60 to 100 mph with gusts of 90 to 150 mph.

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I think Nicole will intensify further. Afterwards, it should weaken as it heads to cooler waters of the North Atlantic. I would not be surprised if Nicole peaks at 125 mph. If that is the case, Nicole would be one of the strongest hurricanes to hit Bermuda since Fabian in 2003.

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The forecast is in disagreement of where Nicole will go. It could go directly over Bermuda or go east or west of Bermuda. Interestingly, northeast of Bermuda, there is a consensus that Nicole will go as an extratropical storm. Nicole’s path will have an impact on Bermuda. If Nicole goes east of Bermuda, than the effects will be less severe. If Nicole goes west or directly over Bermuda, it will be much worse with strong winds and heavy rain. To make matters worse, rain will be an issue as it is moving at 10 mph. That should dump around 10 inches of rain. Bermuda could see amounts of 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated totals of 15 inches of rain.

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Hurricane Nicole will probably make landfall on Bermuda later tonight to early tomorrow morning. It will be a rough night for them. Hopefully they are prepared for Hurricane Nicole.

Latest On Hurricane Matthew As Of 11:00 AM EDT October 8, 2016

Hurricane Matthew made landfall on McClellanville, South Carolina with 75 mph winds and central pressure of 967 millibars. The highest wind on land is 64 mph with gusts of 96 mph. Many areas are seeing 40 to 60 mph winds with gusts of 70 to 90 mph.

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Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles, while tropical storm force extend up to 185 miles. Matthew is weakening and could be a tropical storm later today. Intensity forecast have Matthew weakening in the next few days.

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Doppler radar out of Wilmington, shows that Matthew is inland. Being close to land has weakened Matthew from a major hurricane.

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Despite it weakening, Matthew is dumping flooding rain. Flooding will be the major problem for the Southeast, especially for South Carolina and North Carolina. Doppler radar estimate has much as 15 inches of rain near the South Carolina and Georgia border. Areas where South Carolina and North Carolina meet, 6 to 8 inches of rain has fallen so far. More rain is expected to fall in South Carolina and North Carolina.

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South Carolina could see an additional 4 to 6 inches of rain, which means the total could be 10 to 15 inches of rain. North Carolina could see ab additional 10 inches of rain. North Carolina could see as much as 10 to 15 inches of rain. Some areas could see as much 20 inches of rain.

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On top of the heavy rain, there is dangerous storm surge. Many areas could see 5 to 7 feet storm surge with isolated areas seeing 10 feet storm surge. Storm surge is more related to size of storm, shallowness of water, and geography. A large Category 1 or 2 hurricane over large area of shallow water with funnel shape area will produce higher storm surge than a small Category 4 or 5 hurricane with deeper waters off the coast. Ike and Sandy produced high storm surge despite being under Category 3 because of their large size and geography of affected areas. Storm surge is the biggest killer in hurricanes. The storm surge will make flooding worse as flood waters cannot drain quickly enough.

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Forecast models are all over where Matthew goes. Most have it going eastwards into the Atlantic. Where it goes becomes more complicated. Some have Matthew looping southward towards the Bahamas and even entering the Gulf of Mexico. Some models have it going near Canada. Another fly in the ointment is Tropical Storm Nicole. I do not think it will have much influences due to the small size of the storm.

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Hurricane Matthew is going to be a huge problem for South Carolina and North Carolina. The southern part of Haiti is largely flattened by Matthew. 90 percent of some areas are leveled. The death toll is certainly going to rise. One district, Grand-Anse, at least 470 people have died. I suspect the death toll will be in the thousands. This could be Haiti’s worst hurricane since Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. Jeanne claimed 3,006 people in Haiti. Most of the death was from deadly flooding from heavy rain in the amount of 12 to 15 inches. Most of the death occurred in Gonaïves. Gonaïves had 2,826 of its residence die. Jeanne did not even make landfall as it was a tropical storm.

Christmas Storms

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It was a terrible Christmas for sure. The warm Chrsitmas last week made it felt like late Spring or early Summer. Christmas was very warm throughout America, east of the Rocky Mountains. The warm weather could not last forever in Winter. Cold air from the north came and it clashed with the warm air. That leads to severe weather including tornadoes.

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The Eastern two thirds of America is abnormally warm. However, the warm and humid air by itself does not create storms. It needs lift. There is a large upper level trough to the west and upper level ridging to the east. That kind of setup is favorable for severe weather. The upper level trough brings in cold air from Canada and Alaska. The upper level ridging keeps things warm throughout America.

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The day before Christmas Eve, known as Festivus, severe weather hit the Southeast and Midwest. It mainly centered around Kentucky, Indiana, Arkansas, and Missouri. There were numerous reports of tornadoes, hail, and strong wind. Christmas Eve had tornadoes hit the Southeast, Alabama and Mississippi. Once the tornadoes and storms past, 15 people lost their life. It is not over yet.

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Christmas sees more tornadoes and severe weather in the Southeast, again over Alabama. The tornadoes do not stop there. The day after Christmas, tornadoes strike the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. A large EF-4 tornado hits Garland and Rowlett, destroying houses in its path. Once it is all over, 11 people lost their life.

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There is also flooding from heavy rain. The heavy rain is mostly over Southeast Alabama, Southwest Missouri, Northeast Oklahoma, and Northwest Arkansas. The heavy rain is from the same storm system and warm air clashing. Many areas see 6 to 12 inches of rain in a 7 day period. Southeast Alabama saw as much as 19 inches of rain in 7 days! That is a lot for Winter! Then floodings have claimed at least 18 lives. Many areas in Missouri could see record flooding on par with 1973 and 1993.

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To make matters worse, there is an epic blizzard that hits New Mexico and West Texas. Many areas see 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches of snow. Talk about an epic blizzard right there!

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Christmas went from Fall, Spring, Summer, and Winter all at once! Talk about crazy weather! This is what El Nino can do to our weather. My Winter forecast had a higher chance for severe weather for the South and Southeast. I think this Winter will be known as the Winter of severe weather. It is not even January and February yet.

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This Christmas is a tragic one for 43 families. At least 43 people have lost their life in this severe storm. Thankfully, severe storms around Christmas are rare.

The Tropical Atlantic Is Heating Up For 9/13/2015

We are in mid September and the tropics are heating up. There are three areas of interest in the tropics; Invest 93L, 94L, and 95L.

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Invest 94L is the closest to Texas. 94L has a low chance of development. It is close to land and has to contend with wind shear. Here is the 5 day forecast of where 94L will go.

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Most have it going to Mexico. One has it going into Texas, which is an outlier. Another has it going south into the Yucatan Peninsula. I do not think 94L will become tropical. Even the intensity forecast models do not support it.

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Most forecast models have 94L below tropical depression. A couple of models have it as a tropical storm in the next two days. Two models have 94L as a tropical storm in five days. Forecasting intensity has a long way to go.

Verdict: Invest 94L will not develop into something tropical.

Now, let’s go to Invest 93L. I think this one could develop in the next couple of days if conditions are right. It has to deal with wind shear and dry Saharan air, which has been persistent due to El Nino. The forecast models are hinting it could become a named storm within 24 hours. It would be Ida.

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I am not too sure if 93L will develop. If so, it will probably develop into a tropical storm at most.

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Most forecast models keep 93L out to sea. When a storm intensifies into in the middle of the Atlantic, they tend to be more influenced by upper air patterns. This holds true with hurricanes.

Verdict: Invest 93L could develop, but will not hold my breath for it.

Finally, let’s look at Invest 95L. It just came off of West Africa. 95L has a better chance of developing in the next five days. One thing about Invest 93L, it has to also deal with dry air. That could favor 95L as it can intensify. I think 95L could become Ida or Joaquin, which ever develops first.

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Some of the forecast models have 95L as a hurricane in the next two to three days. It peaks as a Category 2 hurricane. If Ida was to develop, I would not be surprised if 95L became a Category 3 hurricane. Now, where does it go?

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Invest 95L has a more west northwest direction. Even five days later, it is still in the middle of the Atlantic. Could it pose a threat to land? Depending how fast it develops. The slower it develops, the better chance that it could pose a threat to land.

Verdict: Invest 95L is the one to watch this week.

We are in the peak month of hurricane season. So, the tropics are heating up.