https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/Sandwich/
2023 is proven to be just a turbulent year, like this decade so far. Sudan and Ukraine are engulfed in war. The 2020s has been a turbulent decade so far. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2023. Here are other forecasts. ACE is short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy.
Colorado State University
13/6/2 ACE: 100
Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10-14 Storms/5-7 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 70-110
Tropical Storm Risk
12/6/2 ACE: 84
Accuweather
11-15 Storms/4-8 Hurricanes/1-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 75-105
Crown Weather
12/6/2 ACE: 90
The Weather Channel
15/7/3
Weather Tiger
13-18 Tropical Storms/5-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 65-135
University of Arizona
19/9/5 ACE: 163
North Carolina University
11-15 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes
The analog years I am using are in which La Nina is fading away and going into El Nino. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain with another La Nina, El Nino, or Neutral.
Based on this, the analog years are 1876, 1899, 1957, 1963, 1997, 2006, 2009, and 2018. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), New Zealand Warm Pool (NZWP), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR). Here is the ocean temperature anomaly map. It is from Tropical Tidbits.
Analog Years For 2023 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1876 (5/4/2 57 11.4)
1899 (10/5/2 151 15.1)
1957 (8/3/2 79 9.8)
1963 (10/7/3 112 11.2)
1997 (8/3/1 41 5.1)
2006 (10/5/2 83 8.3)
2009 (9/3/2 53 5.8)
2018 (15/8/2 133 8.8
All of the seasons had major hurricane. The most active is 2018 with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that goes to 1899 with ACE of 151. However, this is before satellite, it is likely 1899 is more active. Any season before satellite should be considered suspect. Even in satellite, some data is rather questionable.
Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.
1876
1876 San Felipe Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Cuba-South Florida Hurricane of 1876 (Hurricane #5)
1899
Tropical Storm #1
1899 Carrabelle Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899 (Hurricane #3)
Hurricane #4
Hurricane #5
1957
Audrey
1963
Cindy
Edith
Flora
Ginny
Helena
1997
Danny
Erika
2006
Alberto
Ernesto
2009
Bill
Ida
2018
Michael
The analog season has some deadly and memorable storms. One of the deadliest hurricanes is Flora, which claimed over 8,000 lives in Cuba. Flora dumped over 150 inches of rain on Cuba, which led to massive flooding. Flora remains one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to this day. San Ciriaco Hurricane is a long lived major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico. It claimed more than 3,800 lives. Flora and San Ciriaco Hurricane remain some of the deadliest Atlantic as of today. The 1899 Tropical Storm #1 dumped heavy rain over a large area in Texas. Hearne got 35 inches of rain. The flooding claimed 284 lives. It was the largest rainfall event prior to Harvey. Hurricane Danny dumped nearly 38 inches of rain in Dauphin Island as it lingered over Alabama. Audrey ravaged East Texas and Southwest Louisiana in June 1957. Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane on the Florida Panhandle. It was at its peak of 160 mph and 919 millibars. I am not suggesting 2023 will see something like Tropical Storm #1 (1899), San Ciriaco Hurricane, Flora, and Michael.
Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms. It was created with QGIS. The hurricane data came from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS).
The Carolinas, Florida Panhandle, and Windward Islands looks to have the most development. I never make landfall predictions. I strongly object to making landfall forecasts this early. I think it is irresponsible to make landfall predictions this early on. Everyone is at equal risk.
Here is a statistical analysis of analog seasons vs all season. It was done with PSPP.
Analog
| Tropical Storm | Mean | 9.38 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 7.01 | |
| Upper Bound | 11.74 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 9.31 | ||
| Median | 9.5 | ||
| Variance | 7.98 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 2.83 | ||
| Minimum | 5 | ||
| Maximum | 15 | ||
| Range | 10 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 2 | ||
| Skewness | 0.76 | ||
| Kurtosis | 2.5 | ||
| Hurricane | Mean | 4.75 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 3.15 | |
| Upper Bound | 6.35 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 4.67 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | ||
| Variance | 3.64 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 1.91 | ||
| Minimum | 3 | ||
| Maximum | 8 | ||
| Range | 5 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 3.5 | ||
| Skewness | 0.8 | ||
| Kurtosis | -0.62 | ||
| Major Hurricane | Mean | 2 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 1.55 | |
| Upper Bound | 2.45 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 2 | ||
| Median | 2 | ||
| Variance | 0.29 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 0.53 | ||
| Minimum | 1 | ||
| Maximum | 3 | ||
| Range | 2 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 0 | ||
| Skewness | 0 | ||
| Kurtosis | 3.5 | ||
| ACE | Mean | 88.54 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 55.29 | |
| Upper Bound | 121.79 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 87.71 | ||
| Median | 81 | ||
| Variance | 1581.66 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 39.77 | ||
| Minimum | 40.9 | ||
| Maximum | 151 | ||
| Range | 110.1 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 73.75 | ||
| Skewness | 0.47 | ||
| Kurtosis | -1.19 |
How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2022.
| Tropical Storm | Mean | 10.35 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 9.61 | |
| Upper Bound | 11.08 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 10.08 | ||
| Median | 10 | ||
| Variance | 21.29 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 4.61 | ||
| Minimum | 1 | ||
| Maximum | 30 | ||
| Range | 29 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 6 | ||
| Skewness | 1.07 | ||
| Kurtosis | 2.28 | ||
| Hurricane | Mean | 5.65 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 5.23 | |
| Upper Bound | 6.08 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 5.55 | ||
| Median | 5 | ||
| Variance | 7.1 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 2.66 | ||
| Minimum | 0 | ||
| Maximum | 15 | ||
| Range | 15 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 3 | ||
| Skewness | 0.7 | ||
| Kurtosis | 0.54 | ||
| Major Hurricane | Mean | 2.07 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 1.81 | |
| Upper Bound | 2.34 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 1.96 | ||
| Median | 2 | ||
| Variance | 2.73 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 1.65 | ||
| Minimum | 0 | ||
| Maximum | 7 | ||
| Range | 7 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 2 | ||
| Skewness | 0.87 | ||
| Kurtosis | 0.24 | ||
| ACE | Mean | 94.49 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 85.89 | |
| Upper Bound | 103.09 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 91.09 | ||
| Median | 84.2 | ||
| Variance | 2899.49 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 53.85 | ||
| Minimum | 2.5 | ||
| Maximum | 258.6 | ||
| Range | 256.1 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 72.45 | ||
| Skewness | 0.9 | ||
| Kurtosis | 0.41 |
The 95% Confidence Interval for analog season vs the whole season is wide. Analog seasons generally to edge towards less active. I can use the statistical analysis to come up with a forecast.
What is my prediction for this season?
10 to 15 named storms, likely 12 named storms
3 to 6 hurricanes, likely 5 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 70 to 140 with ACE likely of 80 to 100
Let’s see how my May 2022 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2022 season.
12 to 22 named storms, likely 17 named storms
6 to 14 hurricanes, likely 10 hurricanes
2 to 6 major hurricanes with 4 major hurricanes
ACE is 120 to 200 with ACE likely of 130 to 190
Colorado State University
19/9/4 ACE: 160
Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
18-22 Storms/6-10 Hurricanes/2-4 Major Hurricanes ACE: 140-180
Tropical Storm Risk
18/8/4 ACE: 138
Accuweather
16-20 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 120-150
Crown Weather
21/9/4 ACE: 105-200
The Weather Channel
20/8/4
Weather Tiger
16-23 Tropical Storms/7-11 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 105-200
University of Arizona
14/7/3 ACE: 129
North Carolina University
17-21 Storms/6-9 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes
2022 Actual Number
14 Named Storms
8 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes
95 ACE
The 2022 Hurricane Season was less active than forecasted. The number of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricane were within range. The forecasted ACE was under compared to the actual ACE. There is always room for improvement.
Regardless of forecast, I think 2023 could be an interesting hurricane season. It could be a harry one as I have said in the past. It only takes one to be a devastating season regardless of how inactive or active a season is. 2022 proved well with Fiona and Ian, which is the third costliest season. Only 2017 and 2005 are more costlier than 2022. This is without any adjustment to inflation.
Texas Hurricane 