It is almost this time of year. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2017. Last year was quite an active hurricane season with Matthew, Nicole and Otto. Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the Northeast Atlantic.
Colorado State University
11/4/2 ACE: 75
Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10 to 12 Storms/4 to 6 Hurricanes/1 to 2 Major Hurricanes ACE: 75 to 95
Tropical Storm Risk
11/4/2 ACE: 67
The Weather Channel
The analog years I am using are in which previous winter is La Nina or Neutral and second year after El Nino. The forecast is uncertain is El Nino will develop later in 2017 despite the water showing warming in the Equatorial Pacific, especially off the coast of South America.
2015-2016 El Nino
2016-2017 La Nina
2017/2017-2018 El Nino/Neutral?
Based on this, the analog years are 1901, 1913, 1972, 1989, 2004, 2006, and 2009. They happened two years after El Nino and came off of a La Nina. Of course, there are other factors in play besides El Nino. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), Southern Ocean/Roaring Forties, and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR).
Analog Years For 2017 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1901 13/6/0 99 7.6
1972 7/3/0 36 5.1
1989 11/7/2 135 12.3
2004 15/9/6 227 15.1
2006 10/5/2 79 7.9
2009 9/3/2 53 5.9
So, what affect did those analog seasons have?
Tropical Storm #2 made landfall on Matagorda, Texas on July 10, 1901 with 50 mph winds. This comes 10 months after the devastating Galveston Hurricane on September 8-9, 1900, which claimed 12,000 lives.
Hurricane #4 is known as the 1901 Louisiana Hurricane. The hurricane formed southwest of Azores on August 2, 1901. It traversed the Atlantic before making landfall on Florida on August 11, 1901. It emerges into the Gulf of Mexico and intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane due to the Loop Current on August 12, 1901. The hurricane makes landfall on Buras, Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph wind and that makes a second landfall on Ocean Springs, Mississippi on August 15, 1901. Buras reports 4 feet of water, while New Orleans sees the Mississippi River rise by 7 feet. Up to 15 people are known to have died and inflicted $1 million of damages.
1972 was a largely quiet season, but will be most remembered for Hurricane Agnes. It was a hurricane of non-tropical origin that formed over Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico on June 14, 1972. The tropical depression exits Yucatan into the Yucatan Channel. Agnes brushes Western Cuba as it heads towards Gulf of Mexico. Agnes becomes a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on June 18, 1972 as it is moving northwards towards Florida. Agnes weakens slightly as it makes landfall on Cape San Blas, Florida as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph, but likely a tropical storm as there was no sustained hurricane force winds reported. Agnes produced 7 foot storm surge and heavy rain in Florida. There is also a tornado outbreak in Florida from Agnes, which claimed 7 lives. A total of 9 people died in Florida from Agnes. Agnes is responsible for the deadliest tornado outbreak from a tropical cyclone. Agnes continues to weaken as it moves further inland. Agnes goes over the Atlantic on June 22, 1972 as a tropical storm, which developed over North Carolina. Agnes intensifies into a 70 mph tropical storm and makes landfall in Suffolk County east of New York City on June 22, 1972 with 65 mph winds. Once inland, Agnes becomes an extratropical storm. From there, Agnes starts dumping heavy rain throughout a large area of the Northeast from June 23 to 25, 1972. Many areas see 10 to 15 inches of rain including 19 inches of rain in Pennsylvia. Some areas likely saw higher amounts of rain. Pennsylvania took the brunt of Agnes from the heavy rain and massive flooding. Many other states were hit hard from Virginia, Maryland, New York, Ohio, and West Virginia. At least 119 people died in America from flooding, including 50 in Pennsylvania. On top of it, Agnes did $2.1 billion in damages, the most at the time. Agnes was not a major hurricane and will be remembered as an epic flood event in the Northeast, particularly in Pennsylvania.
Before 2001 Tropical Storm Allison, there was 1989 Tropical Storm Allison, which formed from remnant of East Pacific Hurricane Cosme. Cosme made landfall east of Acapulco as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Allison paid a visit to the Upper Texas Coast on June 27, 1989 with 50 mph wind. Many areas in Texas saw 10 to 20 inches of rain. Like 2001 Allison, 1989 Allison loops over Texas, which dumps heavy rain over Northern and Central Louisiana. Many areas saw 15 to 20 inches including 30 inches at Winnfield, Louisiana. Eleven people lost their life in Texas Louisiana, and Mississippi.
Hurricane Chantal is the first hurricane to strike the Upper Texas Coast in 1989. Chantal is a small hurricane that made landfall on High Island, Texas on August 1, 1989 as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds and central pressure of 984 millibars. The highest winds is 70 mph with gusts as high as 105 mph. Many areas see 50 to 65 mph winds. Chantal produced three feet storm surge at Galveston. An area from Southern Harris County, Fort Bend, and Galveston County saw 8 to 12 inches of rain with amounts as high as 20 inches in Friendswood. One interesting aspect is that the “dirty” side of Chantal was on the southwest side of the hurricane, which produced most of the heavy rain. Thirteen people die, including 11 offshore.
Hurricane Hugo is the most intense hurricane of 1989, which peaked at 160 mph and central pressure of 918 millibars. Hugo was a Cape Verde storm as it formed from a tropical wave that came off of West Africa on September 9, 1989. Hugo became a tropical depression once the tropical wave left Africa. Hugo undergoes rapid intensification over the Atlantic. Hugo first encounter with land as it crosses between Guadeloupe and Montserrat on September 17, 1989 as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Gusts are as high as 210 mph! Guadeloupe is ravaged by strong winds and 8 feet storm surge as many homes are destroyed on top of 10 lives lost. A gust of 184 mph is recorded from a French research ship. Montserrat is ravaged by 20 feet storm surge as almost every house is damaged! Almost everyone are left homeless as a result. 21 people die in Montserrat. Hugo than makes its first landfall on St. Croix. A slowing Hugo puts St. Croix under prolonged hurricane force winds as high wave pelt the island. 90 percent of buildings are leveled and the infrastructure is destroyed by Hugo. The damage is a staggering $1 billion for St. Croix. Later that day, Hugo makes landfall on Vieques and Fajardo, Puerto Rico as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The highest sustained winds are 102 mph with gusts as high as 153 mph. Hugo ravages eastern Puerto Rico and decimates the crops. Hugo goes northward as a Category 2 hurricane. Hugo undergoes intensification to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph and central pressure of 944 millibars. Hugo is heading towards America. On the night of September 21, 1989, Hugo makes landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph and central pressure of 934 millibars. The highest wind is 119 mph with gusts of 179 mph! Many areas see 80 to 120 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 180 mph. Hugo produces monster storm surge in the Charleston area due to its large size. Twenty feet storm surge are reported as it floods the coastal area. The fast motion of Hugo does not lead to massive flooding. 35 people lost their life in America and costliest hurricane at the time prior to Andrew in 1992.
Hurricane Jerry is the second hurricane to hit the Upper Texas Coast in 1989. It formed in the Bay of Campeche on October 12, 1989. Jerry became a Category 1 hurricane on October 15, 1989. As Jerry approaches the Upper Texas Coast, it continues to intensify. By the time it is getting closer to the Upper Texas Coast on October 16, 1989, it has 85 mph winds. Later that day, Jerry makes landfall on Jamaica Beach. Galveston sees 75 mph winds with gusts as high as 100 mph. The storm surge destroys a section of State Highway 87. Houston does not feel much impact from Jerry due to it small size. Many areas saw 2 to 4 inches with highest amount of over 6 inches in Silsbee. Three people died from Jerry all in Galveston as they were driving on the Galveston Sea Wall.
Hurricane Charley is first of the four hurricanes to ravage Florida in the 2004 season. Charley formed over Barbados on August 9, 2004. Two days later, Charley becomes a hurricane south of Jamaica. As Charley heads towards Cayman, intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane and continues to intensify into Category 3 as it heads closer to Cuba. Charley makes landfall close to Punta Cayamas with 120 mph. The highest winds is 120 mph with gusts of 180 mph over Cuba. Over 13 feet storm is measured in Cuba. Charley continues traverses over Cuba and is west of Havana. Charley emerges from Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph and its first landfall on Florida is Dry Tortuga. A cold front is steering Charley towards Southwest Florida. Forecast models have Charley hitting Tampa Bay as a Category 3 hurricane. As it gets closer to the mainland, Charley undergoes rapid intensification into a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and 941 millibars. Charley first struck Cayo Costa and than Punta Gorda as a Category 4 hurricane. Charley produce up to 13 feet storm surge in Florida. The highest sustain winds is 128 mph with gusts of 192 mph! The highest measure gust is 172 mph out of Charlotte Regional Medical Center which was before anemometer failed. Charley travels along Interstate 4 and ravages Orlando as a Category 1 hurricane. Many areas see 5 to 8 inches of rain from Charley. Charley emerges into the Atlantic as a Category 1 hurricane. Than it makes landfall Cape Romain and North Myrtle Beach as a Category 1 hurricane. The highest wind is 63 mph with gusts of 96 mph. Charley is the first hurricane to hit South Carolina since Hugo in 1989. Charley dumps 3 to 7 inches of rain and produces 4 to 6 feet storm surge. Once Charley is gone, it claims 15 lives, mostly in Florida. There are 20 indirect deaths, which brings total to 35. Charley also does $16.3 billion in damages.
As Florida is recovering from Hurricane Charley, another storm forms off the Cape Verde Islands, Frances. Frances forms off the Cape Verde on August 24, 2004 and becomes a tropical storm the next day. Frances gains intensity is it traverses over the Atlantic, it undergoes rapid intensification and becomes a hurricane on August 26. Frances intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Frances undergoes eyewall replacement cycle, causing it to weaken to Category 3 hurricane. AS Frances travels westward and intensifies into a Category 4 with 145 mph winds on September 2, 2004 as it begins to ravage Bahama. Frances weakens into a Category 3 hurricane due to wind shear as it is over Bahamas. Frances maintains Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph as it gets closer to Florida. Frances is a large hurricane with a large eye. To make matters worse, France is moving slowly as it gets closer to Florida. Frances makes landfall on Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds on September 5, 2004. Frances ravages Florida with strong winds and heavy rain. Many areas in Florida see 10 to 20 inches of rain, which leads to flooding. As Frances is leaving Florida, it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall on Aucilla River, Florida as a tropical storm. As Frances weakens, it becomes a huge rainmaker for the Southeast. The Appalachian Mountains draw more moisture out of the storm leading the heavy rain. Many areas in North Carolina see over 20 inches of rain including nearly 24 inches of rain in Mount Mitchell. The flooding causes Asheville to have no water for several days. There are 7 people killed and 43 indirect deaths, which brings the total of 50.
If things got worse, it does, as a tropical wave emerges from Africa on August 31, 2004, which becomes a tropical depression on September 2, 2004. The next day it is Tropical Storm Ivan. Ivan is a tropical storm for two days and on September 5, 2004, it becomes a hurricane and rapidly intensifies into a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Ivan first hits Granada as a Category 3 hurricane. Many areas see 80 to 100 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 150 mph. Ivan unleashes devastating winds and destroys numerous buildings including a prison, which allows prisoners to escape causing more trouble. Most of the island is leveled by Ivan as it claims 39 lives. Ivan enters the Caribbean and rapidly intensifies into a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph. Ivan comes approaches Jamaica on September 11, 2004 and pelts the nation with hurricane force wind and heavy rain. 17,000 people are left homeless from flooding and strong winds of Ivan. Ivan dumped heavy rain on Jamaica as much as 28 inches of rain! It is very likely the amount are higher. 17 people died in Jamaica. As Ivan moves away from Jamaica, it re-intensifies into a Category 5 hurricane. As Ivan comes closer to Grand Cayman, Ivan peaks at 165 mph and central pressure of 910 millibars. Ivan is the tenth most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic as of 2017. The strong winds of Ivan damage many buildings despite strict building codes. Grand Cayman has winds of 157 mph with gusts as high as 236 mph! Ivan goes between Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba as a Category 5 hurricane. Cuba is being ravaged by full force Category 5 winds and heavy rain. Despite it, there are no reports of casualties in Cuba from Ivan. Ivan enters the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane and maintains it. As Ivan inches closer to the Gulf Coast, people are order to evacuate. The Superdome in New Orleans becomes a “shelter of last resort”, which had been used with Hurricane Georges in 1998. Many evacuate New Orleans as it most of the city is below sea level and would be very vulnerable to storm surge. However, Ivan goes east of New Orleans and makes landfall on Gulf Shore, Alabama as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds in the small hours of September 16, 2004. Alabama and Florida are hammered by strong winds of 80 to 100 mph with gusts of 120 to 150 mph on top of 15 foot storm surge. Ivan spawned numerous tornadoes, a total of 117, which is the most from a hurricane. On top of it, there is heavy rain of 10 to 15 inches as causes widespread flooding. Ivan moves further inland and weakens into a tropical storm. Appalachian Mountains are getting more heavy rain as it has been flooded by Hurricane Frances several weeks earlier. Part of Ivan break away and moves eastward back into the Atlantic and loops towards Florida. That piece of Ivan enters the Gulf of Mexico and begins to reorganize. By the time it is near Texas/Louisiana, Ivan becomes a tropical depression and tropical storm on September 22, 2004. Ivan makes landfall on Holly Beach, Louisiana as a tropical depression. Some areas in Louisiana and Texas had up to 8 inches of rain. Ivan claimed 92 lives and including 32 indirect deaths, which brings the total to 124 lives.
As Ivan is entering the Gulf of Mexico, a tropical depression develops east of Guadaloupe on September 13, 2004, which made landfall on the island nation. Many areas in Guadaloupe see 8 to 12 inches of rain. The next day it becomes Tropical Storm Jeanne as moves westward towards the Virgin Islands. On September 15, 2004, Jeanne makes landfall on Yabucoa, Puerto Rico as a tropical storm and travels over the island. Many areas see 5 to 10 inches of rain with the highest amount of nearly 24 inches in Vieques. Eight people have died from Jeanne in Puerto Rico. Jeanne exits Puerto Rico and becomes a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds before it makes landfall on the eastern tip of Dominican Republic September 16, 2004. Jeanne traverses on the north side of Hispanola and weakening due to interaction with the mountains. Despite weakening, Jeanne is dumping heavy rain over Haiti and Dominican Republic for 30 hours. The prolonged heavy rain triggers widespread flooding and deadly mudslide in Haiti and Dominican Republic. The highest reported total is 13 inches with totals possibly going as much as 40 inches of rain in the mountains. The coastal city of Gonaives is hardest hit by flooding from Jeanne. At least 2,900 people are known to have died in the city. Throughout Haiti, at least 3,000 people have died from Jeanne. In Dominican Republic, 18 people have died from Jeanne from deadly flooding. Jeanne is now a tropical depression as it exits Hispanola on September 17, 2004. Jeanne lingers east of Bahamas and becomes a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on September 20, 2004. Jeanne loops around the Atlantic as a hurricane and moves westward towards the Bahamas. Jeanne continues to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph as it hits Abaco Island, Bahamas on September 25, 2004. Jeanne continues westward towards hurricane ravaged Florida. On the night of September 25, 2004, Jeanne makes landfall just two miles away from where Frances made landfall on Hutchinson Island as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds and 950 millibars, which is the peak of Jeanne. Jeanne produces 6 foot storm surge in Florida. Many areas see 60 to 90 mph winds with gusts of 90 to 135 mph. Many areas see 5 to 8 inches of rain with totals as high as nearly 13 inches of rain. Jeanne weakens as it is over Florida and moves northward dumping heavy rain throughout the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region. It is unclear how much of the damage is from Charley, Frances or Jeanne. Regardless, Jeanne did a total of $7.66 billion in damages. Jeanne claims over 3,000 lives and exceeds Katrina and Stan in 2005. Jeanne is the deadliest hurricane of the 2000s.
Tropical Storm Alberto formed between Cuba and Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The storm peaks at 70 mph west of Tampa Bay on June 12, 2006 over the Loop Current. Alberto makes landfall on Taylor County, Florida on June 13, 2006 with 45 mph winds. Many areas in the Southeastern US see 3 to 7 inches of rain, which leads to flooding. Grand Cayman records up 22.72 inches of rain in 24 hours. Many areas in Cuba see 7 to 12 inches of rain, including 17.52 inches in Pinar del Rio province, Cuba. Two people died in Florida, and one died in North Carolina. Four sailors off the coast of Newfoundland Canada went missing when Alberto is an extratropical storm.
Hurricane Ernesto formed west of Grenada on August 24, 2006. It becomes a hurricane southwest of Haiti on August 27, 2006 with 75 mph winds. Ernesto weakens as it interacts with the mountains of Haiti and Dominican Republic. Ernesto brushes the western tip of Haiti on August 28, 2006 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Than Ernesto makes landfall near Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. Ernesto continues northwestward towards Cuba, first hitting Plantation Key, Florida, and than Miami-Dade County as a tropical storm. Ernesto traverses over Florida be emerging over the Atlantic, which intensifies to 70 mph and possibly a Category 1 hurricane. Ernesto makes landfall on Oak Island, North Carolina on August 31, 2006. Haiti sees up to 11 inches of rain and strong winds. Cuba sees rain amounts of 2 to 5 inches of rain with highest of 7.46 inches in Nuevitas, Camagüey. Florida sees 3 to 6 inches of rain with highest of 8.72 inches at South Golden Gate, Florida. The Carolina sees 4 to 8 inches of rain with 14.61 inches being the highest at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. Five people died in Haiti, while two died in Virginia when Ernesto is extratropical storm.
Hurricane Bill is the most intense hurricane for 2009 as it was a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds and central pressure of 943 millibars. On August 22-23, 2009, the outerbands of Bill affect the Eastern Seaboard, particularly Massachusetts. Bill dumps heavy rain and produces numerous high waves on the East Coast. Hurricane Bill makes landfall on Point Rosie, Newfoundland as a 70 mph tropical storm. Many areas in Newfoundland and Canadian Maritime provinces experience strong winds and heavy rain. The coastal areas are pelted by high waves that a buoy recorded 87 feet waves!
Hurricane Ida was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds and central pressure of 975 millibars. However, it is better remembered as a powerful Nor’easter dubbed Nor’Ida. The storm would hammer the East Coast from November 11 to 17, 2009 with heavy rain and strong winds. The highest rainfall total is 18 inches of rain in Virginia. The storm also produce over 7 foot storm surge, which is on par with Hurricane Isabel in 2003.
Some of the analog seasons are inactive like 1972, but are very memorable. It shows it only takes just one to make a huge difference. Some are very active and deadly like 1989 and 2004. There were also Category 5 hurricanes in 1989 and 2004.
Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms.
The high risk areas are Cuba, Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Panhandle, South Florda, Carolinas, Bahamas, and Upper Texas Coast. However, when you look at the whole basin, everyone is at risk for landfall, which is why I never make landfall predictions. Everyone is at equal risk as I always say!
11/6/2 (Rounded Up)
11/6/2 (Rounded Up)
How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2016.
The analog seasons are within standard deviation, which indicates this upcoming hurricane season is going to be within average.
What is my prediction for this season?
6 to 12 named storms, likely 10 named storms
3 to 8 hurricanes, likely 6 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 65 to 110 with ACE likely of 70 to 100
This excludes Arlene, which formed earlier in April, which would be 11 named storms. I do not think this season will be as active as last year. Of course, it only takes one to be bad like in 1972 with Agnes.
Let’s see how my April 2016 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2016 season.
7 to 13 named storms, likely 11 named storms
4 to 8 hurricanes, likely 6 hurricanes
2 to 4 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 90 to 150 with ACE likely of 100 to 130
2016 Actual Number
15 Named Storms
4 Major Hurricanes
I was off with named storms. I was close with hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE. There is always room for improvement either way.
Regardless of forecast, I think 2017 could be an interesting hurricane season. It is the same Atlantic name list used in the devastating 2005 season, which produced Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Of course some of the names are not there with the exception of Emily.