May 2022 Hurricane Season Forecast

Hurricane Ida is seen in this image taken aboard the International Space Station. The dangerous hurricane made landfall in Louisiana on Sunday, Aug. 29, 2021, with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour, or 241 kilometers per hour. The image was shared on European Space Agency astronaut and Expedition 65 crew member Thomas Pesquet's Twitter account, as the storm churned in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of its landfall.

From space, our Earth-observing satellites have a unique view of storms. These observations provide data that help us work with partner agencies, including the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to better understand hurricanes, and support preparation and disaster response. Learn more about hurricane monitoring.

Image credit: European Space Agency
Image credit: European Space Agency

2022 is proven to be just a turbulent year, like 2020 and 2021. Ukraine is engulfed in a war with Russia. COVID-19 remains a problem as it is showing signs of subsiding. The 2020s has been a turbulent decade so far. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2022. Here are other forecasts. ACE is short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Colorado State University
19/9/4 ACE: 160

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
18-22 Storms/6-10 Hurricanes/2-4 Major Hurricanes ACE: 140-180

Tropical Storm Risk
18/8/4 ACE: 138

Accuweather
16-20 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 120-150

Crown Weather
21/9/4 ACE: 105-200

The Weather Channel
20/8/4

Weather Tiger
16-23 Tropical Storms/7-11 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 105-200

University of Arizona
14/7/3 ACE: 129

North Carolina University
17-21 Storms/6-9 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes

The analog years I am using are in which we are in a second year or greater La Nina year. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain with another La Nina, El Nino, or Neutral.

Based on this, the analog years are 1875, 1876, 1880, 1895, 1899, 1937, 1950, 1956, 1957, 1962, 1963, 1985, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2012. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), New Zealand Warm Pool (NZWP), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR). Here is the ocean temperature anomaly map. It is from Tropical Tidbits.

Analog Years For 2022 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1875 (6/5/1 73 12.1)
1876 (5/4/2 57 11.4)
1880 (11/9/2 131 11.9)
1895 (6/2/0 69 11.5)
1899 (10/5/2 151 15.1)
1937 (11/4/1 66 6.0)
1950 (16/11/6 211 13.2)
1956 (12/4/1 57 4.7)
1957 (8/3/2 79 9.8)
1962 (7/4/0 51 7.2)
1963 (10/7/3 112 11.2)
1985 (11/7/3 88 8.0)
1997 (8/3/1 41 5.1)
2000 (15/8/3 119 7.9)
2001 (15/9/4 110 7.3)
2009 (9/3/2 53 5.8)
2012 (19/10/2 133 7.0)

All of the seasons had major hurricane, except . The most active is 2012 with 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. However, in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that goes to 1950. The least active is 1895 which only had 2 hurricanes and no major hurricanes. However, 1895 is before satellite. After 1966, the least active is 1997 with 3 hurricane and 1 major hurricane. Any season before satellite should be considered suspect. Even in satellite, some data is rather questionable.

Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.

1875
Indianola Hurricane (Hurricane #3)

1876
1876 San Felipe Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Cuba-South Florida Hurricane of 1876 (Hurricane #5)

1880
Hurricane #2
Hurricane #4

1895
Hurricane #2
Hurricane #5

1899
Tropical Storm #1
1899 Carrabelle Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899 (Hurricane #3)
Hurricane #4
Hurricane #5

1937
Tropical Storm #3

1950
Able
Baker
Dog
Easy
King

1956
Betsy
Flossy
Greta

1957
Audrey

1962
Daisy
Ella

1963
Cindy
Edith
Flora
Ginny
Helena

1985
Elena
Gloria
Juan
Kate

1997
Danny
Erika

2000
Gordon
Keith

2001
Allison
Iris
Michelle

2009
Ida

2012
Isaac
Sandy

The analog season has some deadly and memorable storms. One of the deadliest hurricanes is Flora, which claimed over 8,000 lives in Cuba. Flora dumped over 150 inches of rain on Cuba, which led to massive flooding. San Ciriaco Hurricane is a long lived major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico. It claimed more than 3,800 lives. Flora and San Ciriaco Hurricane remain some of the deadliest Atlantic as of today. Before Indianola was destroyed in 1886 by the 1886 Indianola Hurricane, Indianola was ravaged by Indianola Hurricane in 1875. Some produced heavy rain and flooding from Tropical Storm #1 (1899), Easy, Cindy, and Allison. The 1899 Tropical Storm #1 dumped heavy rain over a large area in Texas. Hearne got 35 inches of rain. The flooding claimed 284 lives. It was the largest rainfall event prior to Harvey. Hurricane Danny dumped nearly 38 inches of rain in Dauphin Island as it lingered over Alabama. Allison dumped 40 inches of rain in a 5 day span including 28 inches in 12 hours in Northeast Houston. The analog seasons were not kind to Texas. It also has Audrey, which ravaged East Texas and Southwest Louisiana in June 1957. It was also not kind with the Eastern US. Gloria and Sandy ravaged the Northeast, including New York City. Sandy produced monster storm surge for New York and New Jersey. I am not suggesting 2022 will see something like 1875 Indianola, Tropical Storm #1 (1899), San Ciriaco Hurricane, Flora, Elena, Juan, Kate, Danny, Allison, and Sandy.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms. It was created with QGIS. The hurricane data came from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS).

The Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeastern US looks to have the most development. Sames goes with around the Windward Islands and Western Caribbean. I never make landfall predictions. I strongly object to making landfall forecasts this early. I think it is irresponsible to make landfall predictions this early on. Everyone is at equal risk.

Here is a statistical analysis of analog seasons vs all season. It was done with PSPP.

Analog

Tropical StormMean10.53
95% Confidence Interval for MeanLower Bound8.52
Upper Bound12.54
5% Trimmed Mean10.37
Median10
Variance15.26
Std. Deviation3.91
Minimum5
Maximum19
Range14
Interquartile Range6
Skewness0.62
Kurtosis-0.19
HurricaneMean5.76
95% Confidence Interval for MeanLower Bound4.33
Upper Bound7.2
5% Trimmed Mean5.68
Median5
Variance7.82
Std. Deviation2.8
Minimum2
Maximum11
Range9
Interquartile Range5
Skewness0.53
Kurtosis-1.07
Major HurricaneMean2.06
95% Confidence Interval for MeanLower Bound1.3
Upper Bound2.82
5% Trimmed Mean1.95
Median2
Variance2.18
Std. Deviation1.48
Minimum0
Maximum6
Range6
Interquartile Range2
Skewness1.07
Kurtosis2.05
ACEMean94.06
95% Confidence Interval for MeanLower Bound70.91
Upper Bound117.21
5% Trimmed Mean90.5
Median78.7
Variance2026.7
Std. Deviation45.02
Minimum40.9
Maximum211.3
Range170.4
Interquartile Range68.2
Skewness1.14
Kurtosis1.3

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2021.

Tropical StormMean10.32
95% Confidence Interval for MeanLower Bound9.58
Upper Bound11.06
5% Trimmed Mean10.05
Median10
Variance21.35
Std. Deviation4.62
Minimum1
Maximum30
Range29
Interquartile Range6
Skewness1.09
Kurtosis2.31
HurricaneMean5.64
95% Confidence Interval for MeanLower Bound5.21
Upper Bound6.07
5% Trimmed Mean5.53
Median5
Variance7.11
Std. Deviation2.67
Minimum0
Maximum15
Range15
Interquartile Range3
Skewness0.71
Kurtosis0.56
Major HurricaneMean2.07
95% Confidence Interval for MeanLower Bound1.81
Upper Bound2.34
5% Trimmed Mean1.96
Median2
Variance2.74
Std. Deviation1.66
Minimum0
Maximum7
Range7
Interquartile Range2
Skewness0.87
Kurtosis0.22
ACEMean94.48
95% Confidence Interval for MeanLower Bound85.83
Upper Bound103.14
5% Trimmed Mean91.08
Median83.85
Variance2918.69
Std. Deviation54.02
Minimum2.5
Maximum258.6
Range256.1
Interquartile Range73.77
Skewness0.89
Kurtosis0.38

The 95% Confidence Interval for analog season vs the whole season is wide. Analog seasons could either be inactive or active. Analog seasons are above average compared to the whole season.

What is my prediction for this season?
12 to 22 named storms, likely 17 named storms
6 to 14 hurricanes, likely 10 hurricanes
2 to 6 major hurricanes with 4 major hurricanes
ACE is 120 to 200 with ACE likely of 130 to 190

Let’s see how my May 2021 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2021 season.

14 to 22 named storms, likely 17 named storms
6 to 12 hurricanes, likely 9 hurricanes
2 to 6 major hurricanes with 4 major hurricanes
ACE is 120 to 190 with ACE likely of 130 to 180

Colorado State University
17/8/4 ACE: 150

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
16 to 22 Storms/9 to 13 Hurricanes/3 to 6 Major Hurricanes ACE: 150 to 200

Tropical Storm Risk
17/8/3 ACE: 134

Accuweather
16 to 20 Storms/7 to 10 Hurricanes/3 to 5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 120 to 160

Crown Weather
16/8/4

The Weather Channel
18/8/3

Weather Tiger
15/7/3

University of Arizona
18/8/4 ACE: 137

North Carolina University
15 to 18 Storms/7 to 9 Hurricanes/2 to 3 Major Hurricanes

2021 Actual Number
21 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
146 ACE

Many including myself got the forecast off. The 2021 Hurricane Season was more active than forecasted. The ACE was under compared to the actual ACE. I did get the ACE right. There is always room for improvement.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2022 could be an interesting hurricane season. It could be a harry one. It only takes one to be a devastating season regardless of how inactive or active a season is.

Quad State Tornado

Outlined NOAA MRMS Rotation Tracks show the long-track long-lived tornadic supercell over Arkansas, Tennessee, & Kentucky. The highest values in blue are often associated w/violent tornadoes. NWS offices will provide an official determination of the exact tornado paths. NOAA NSSL via Twitter
https://twitter.com/NOAANSSL/status/1469725729525055507

Last Friday to early Saturday morning, a monster tornado ravaged the Southeastern US. It left trail of destruction, devastation, and grief as it comes during the Holiday Season with Christmas coming. It had been a warm December and a strong cold front came. The clash of warm humid and cold dry air sets off thunderstorms. These thunderstorms can produce severe weather including tornadoes.

One of those thunderstorms that formed over Arkansas started traveling across four states as it produced a monsterous tornado. The tornado traveled 250 miles, which is subject to change. It is longer than the 1925 Tri-State Tornado, which traveled 219 miles and ravaged Missouri, Illinois, Indiana. It occurred on March 18, 1925. The monsterous tornado claimed 695 lives. Many of the deaths occurred in Murphysboro, Illinois, where 234 people died. It is the deadliest for a single city to this day. Thirty-three people died at De Soto School in De Soto, Illinois. It is the deadliest school weather disaster to this day and one of the deadliest school disasters. The Tri-State Tornado remains the deadliest single tornado to this very day.

The 2021 Quad State Tornado has claimed at least 80 lives as of December 14, 2021. The death toll is likely to rise, especially in Kentucky. 103 people are reported as missing. Thirteen of the 88 deaths are children, which makes it more tragic. The youngest is two month old Oaklynn Koon, who was taken off life support. Eight people died at Mayfield Consumer Products, where they make candles.

In Illinois, 6 people died at the Edwardsville, Illinois Amazon warehouse. The United States Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is launching an investigation into what led to the deaths and destruction of the warehouse. The tornado responsible is not the one that ravaged Kentucky.

Here is a heat map of the tornadoes from December 10-11, 2021. The heat map use points within 30 mile/48 kilometers radius. It is from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The GIS map is created from QGIS.

The tornado report is provisional and subject to change. The tornadoes are mostly concentrated in Arkansas, Missouri, and Kentucky. Here is the death toll map by counties. The death toll is from Wikipedia. The death toll is subject to change. It is as of December 14, 2021.

The death toll stands at 88 with the death toll likely to rise. Most of the deaths are in Southwestern Kentucky. The regions most affected are Jackson Purchase, Western Coal Fields, and Mississippi Plateau. I would not be surprised if the tornadoes claim hundreds of lives.

Here is a powerful image of how powerful tornadoes are. I will leave it at that.

Dawson Springs KY. How fast were those winds?
https://twitter.com/bhamrick_wlwt/status/1470739085367066631/photo/1

Nicholas Getting Closer To Texas

It is hard to believe it has been thirteen years since Hurricane Ike made landfall on this day in Southeast Texas. It has been nearly a year since Tropical Storm Beta made landfall. Now, we have Tropical Storm Nicholas. The National Hurricane Center has Nicholas a near hurricane with 70 mph/110 km/h winds as of 7:00 PM CDT. Where does Nicholas go and will it stall over Texas? Here is the forecast model from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is 1800Z.

The heat map is not as circular, as it is more oval. A more circular heat would suggest that Nicholas could linger over Texas. However, it looks more likely Nicholas will exit Texas. Nicholas is not going to be another Harvey at this time. That is a good thing as Harvey dumped heavy rain over Southeast Texas for nearly a week. The next question is how strong will Nicholas be before landfall.

Most intensity forecast models keep Nicholas as a tropical storm. One has it near hurricane. Intensity forecast models are not reliable. I think Nicholas could further intensify into a hurricane before landfall. I would not be surprised if Nicholas makes landfall with 75 to 80 mph (120 to 128 km/h) winds. The most concerning aspect is the rainfall from Nicholas. Southeast Texas had string of floods from Memorial Day 2015, Tax Day 2016, Memorial Day 2016, Harvey, and Imelda. Here are forecast models of rainfall totals. The forecast models are from Weather.US. They are all seven day rainfall total forecast.

The forecast modes are:
EURO (European)
ICON (German)
GFS (American)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)
UM (South Korea)

EURO
ICON
GFS
GEM
CMA
UM

The Korean forecast model has the highest rainfall total of over 27 inches of rain. The EURO has over 16 inches of rain. Most forecast models have between 10 to 11 inches of rain. The forecast models are all over the place where the heaviest rain will fall. Some have it off shore, while some have it over land. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. The forecast are from highest rainfall totals in the forecast models.

Mean: 14.85
Median: 11.55
Standard Deviation: 6.60
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound: 7.92
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound: 21.78

The mean is 14.85 inches and median is 11.55 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 7.92 to 21.78 inches. It is probable the highest amount is somewhere between 8 to 21 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be less than 8 inches or over 21 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the the highest rainfall total will probably be somewhere between 8 to 22 inches with the mean of 15 inches. I would not be surprised if some areas have nearly 25 inches of rain before it is all over.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Nicholas could further intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before landfall.
-Rainfall amounts could range from 10 to 15 inches/25.4 to 38.1 centimeters of rain with isolated totals approaching 25 inches/63.5 centimeters.
-Some areas could see flooding.

Twenty Years Ago Today

Hurricane Ida left its mark on Louisiana, New Jersey, and New York, wildfires continue to burn in the Western US, and COVID-19 remaining a threat, let’s take the time to reflect. It is hard to believe it has been 20 years since the September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attack occurred in New York, Arlington, and Shanksville. Time flies fast for sure. it felt like yesterday. We all remember where we were on that tragic Tuesday. Four hijacked airplanes crashed large jet airplanes into the World Trade Center, Pentagon, and a field near Shanksville. Once it was all over, 3,000 people lost their lives, untold numbers injured, and left the World Trade Center a smoldering wreckage and Pentagon burning. An entire nation and world was left in mourning. Many more are getting sick and dying due to dust exposure from the destroyed World Trade Center, which spewed incredible amounts of toxic and carcinogenic smoke and dust through New York.

The sky was clear and sunny on the East Coast and the rest of America. It had rained on the night of September 10 after a cold front passed by. Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather was in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Florida. That disturbance would later become Hurricane Gabrielle. In the Atlantic, there was Hurricane Erin, which was a fish storm and not affecting land and was east of New York on that day. The sky was blue and weather was pleasant on that Tuesday morning. Looked to be another day and biggest news at the time was Michael Jordan announcing his return to the NBA and Chandra Levy case. Of course, trouble was brewing over American airspace as airplanes are being hijacked as they are flying from the East Coast to the West Coast.

All that would change at 8:46 AM when American Airlines Flight 11 crashed into the North Tower. The unthinkable happened when United Airlines Flight 175 crashed into the South Tower on live television and people watched horrified. It was obvious America is being attacked. People above the crash zone in the North Tower are trapped. Some jumped out of the building because they had nowhere to flee to from all the fire and smoke. Firefighters and police went inside to rescue people as people were fleeing the stricken World Trade Center.

To make matters worse, American Airlines Flight 77 crashed into the Pentagon, the center of America’s military might. It was obvious that America was attacked and all airplanes had to be grounded. For the first time, almost no airplanes were in the sky. It was an empty sky, but two airplanes were unaccounted for. If things got worse, it got much worse. The South Tower crashed to the ground with people trapped inside in a massive plume of toxic dust and smoke. People are fleeing the collapse. United Airlines Flight 93 is hijacked, but the passengers fight back and terrorists crashed it knowing they failed into a field near Shanksville. The burning North Tower which was first attacked disintegrates into a massive plume of toxic dust and smoke. Reality had set in and that many people got killed. Manhattan, Pentagon, and Shanksville looked like war zones, except it was in America. Downtown Manhattan was covered in thick dust and smoke was gushing out into the afternoon. Many people had to evacuate by boat, which is reminiscent of Dunkirk as hundreds of thousands left Manhattan. Another building, 7 World Trade Center collapsed as the Sun was setting for the day.

The death toll was going to massive. Death toll was estimated as high as 50,000 people killed including 800 at the Pentagon. First responders report to what is now Ground Zero to rescue and survivors. From there, it becomes a grim recovery work to find the dead and clean up the site by removing wreckage of the World Trade Center. Once the recovery work was done, 3,000 people lost their life on that Tuesday. Many people were exposed to the toxic dust and smoke of the World Trade Center collapse and Pentagon attack. Many have respiratory problems and even death.

In the past 20 years since 9/11, we have seen disasters from Indian Ocean Tsunami, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Virginia Tech Massacre, Nargis, Sichuan Earthquake, Ike, Haitian Earthquake, Macondo Well Disaster, Japan Tsunami, Alabama Tornado, Joplin Tornado, Sandy, Sandy Hook Massacre, Boston Marathon, Dhaka Garment Factory Collapse, UCSB, Joaquin, Paris, Orlando, Nice, Baghdad, Harvey, Irma, Maria, Las Vegas, Southernland Springs, Parkland, Santa Fe, Camp Fire, El Paso, Dorian, Laura, Iota, Surfside Condominium Collapse, and Ida. There is the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic plaguing the world as we had Swine Flu, Ebola, and Zika. We have recessions, wars, and many droughts.

Ida Is Now A Hurricane

GOES-16 satellite image from Weathernerds.

The world cannot catch a break in this crazy year of 2021. 2021 is just as crazy as 2020. The terrorist attack in Kabul has claimed a total of 182 lives including 13 American service members. There are now over 216 million confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. America has reported over 190,000 new cases and 1,304 new deaths. This is as of August 27, 2021. As of tonight, Hurricane Ida is exiting Cuba and entering into the Gulf of Mexico.

Here is a heat map from forecast models from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The heat is generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is 0000Z.

It is looking more likely Ida is going to make landfall somewhere between Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Texas and Florida are less likely to have Ida making landfall. The landfall risk includes New Orleans. New Orleans is mostly below sea level.

New Orleans was flooded out after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast in 2005. New Orleans has pump stations to pump water out of the city. To make matters worse, some pump stations are out of service. Here is map of New Orleans pump stations that are online and offline. It is courtesy of The Times-Picayune and The New Orleans Advocate.

That would be a bad time if Ida is over them and the pumps are not fully online. If the dirty side of Ida is over New Orleans, there could be massive storm surge that floods the city. One area of concern is Lakeview, which is below sea level. Lakeview flooded after the levees failed from Hurricane Katrina. New Orleans area had 60 to 90 mph (96 to 144 km/h) winds with gusts of 90 to 135 mph (144 to 216 km/h) winds during Katrina. New Orleans area could have 100 to 120 mph (160 to 192 k/h) winds with gusts of 150 to 180 mph (240 to 270 km/h) from Ida.

Looking at satellite image, the circular shape of Ida suggests it is starting to intensify. Here is an intensity forecast model for Ida.

Most forecast models have Ida as a Category 3 within 24 hours. A couple have Ida peaking at Category 4 hurricane. Intensity forecast models are not reliable. I would not be surprised if Ida undergoes rapid intensification. Come morning, Ida is likely to be a Category 4 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Ida ends up being a Category 5 hurricane. Here is something that is unsettling. New Orleans is not going to issue mandatory evacuations and contraflows. As mentioned, New Orleans is vulnerable from flooding. Storm surge will certainly flood the city. Here is an excerpt from the article:

Hurricane Ida is approaching New Orleans more rapidly than city officials had initially prepared for, Mayor LaToya Cantrell said in an evening press conference Friday.

The storm, now projected to hit the Gulf Coast as a major Category 4 hurricane on Sunday, is moving so fast that the city will not be able to issue a mandatory evacuation for residents or implement contraflow for those evacuating voluntarily. New Orleans is expected to feel the effects of Ida as early as Saturday night.

“It is vitally important. We want our people to be in their safe spaces by, and no later than midnight tomorrow,” said Cantrell.

That is very unsettling to think about. If Ida was to flood New Orleans, the city is going to be cut off from the world. There maybe no power and water and this is on top of COVID-19 pandemic. Many New Orleans area hospitals have COVID patients and some are on life support. Evacuating them will be a logistical nightmare. Here is a dire warning for Hurricane Katrina on August 28, 2005. It could apply with Ida:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. 

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

$$

Reading that advisory from Katrina sends a chill down my spine. If Ida was to get close to New Orleans, it could be like Katrina again. Hopefully, that will not be the case.

I think Ida will be a major hurricane come morning. I would not be surprised if Ida is a Category 5 hurricane. Everyone along the Gulf Coast needs to be prepared right now. If you need to evacuate, please do so right now. It could be really bad.

Tropical Storm Ida Has Formed

Courtesy of NOAA.

A series of terrorist attacks in Kabul kill 13 American service members and at least 60 Afghans. The never ending wildfires in the Western US and it is not even the peak of fire season yet. COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing with no end in sight. There are over 215 million confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. America has over 39 million confirmed COVID-19 cases. This is as of August 26, 2021. Anything related to the pandemic can be read at my other blog, The Ebola Zone. Now, we have Tropical Storm Ida, which formed earlier today. Many are wondering where will Ida go and how strong will it be.

Here is a heat map from forecast models from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The heat is generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is 0000Z.

Most of the forecast models have Ida heading towards Louisiana and Mississippi at this time. Texas does have a risk of Ida making landfall in the next few days. Before it enters the Gulf of Mexico, it could make landfall on Cayman, Cuba, or Mexico. It could stay over the Caribbean before entering the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast model is always subject to change. Many are asking how strong could Ida get. Here is an intensity forecast model.

Most forecast models have Ida as a hurricane within a couple of days. A couple models have Ida as a Category 2 hurricane. Intensity forecast models are not reliable. I would not be surprised if Ida becomes a Category 3 or 4 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.

Here is the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map of the Gulf of Mexico. It is from the NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.

The Central Gulf of Mexico is warm. It is from the Loop Current. That allowed Hurricane Katrina and Rita to undergo rapid intensification in 2005. If conditions are right, Ida could undergo rapid intensification. How strong can Ida get?

Here is a Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity for the Gulf of Mexico. It is courtesy of Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA).

The Gulf of Mexico can be favorable for Category 5 hurricane if conditions are right in the atmosphere. If there is low wind shear and relative humidity is higher, it is more likely Ida may undergo rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. I am not in any way suggesting that Ida will be a Category 5 hurricane at this time. The potential for Ida being a Category 5 hurricane is there.

Tropical Ida should be watched at this time. Everyone along the Gulf Coast should monitor Ida for the next few days. The tropics are heating up and there could be more storms as we are in the peak season.

May 2021 Hurricane Season Forecast

We can all agree that 2020 was a crazy year no matter how one spins it ranging from COVID-19 pandemic to hurricane season. The coronavirus remains a major threat worldwide. Many nations are affected by the pandemic as it has sickened many. However, it has gotten better in America. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2021. Here are other forecasts.

Colorado State University
17/8/4 ACE: 150

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
16 to 22 Storms/9 to 13 Hurricanes/3 to 6 Major Hurricanes ACE: 150 to 200

Tropical Storm Risk
17/8/3 ACE: 134

Accuweather
16 to 20 Storms/7 to 10 Hurricanes/3 to 5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 120 to 160

Crown Weather
16/8/4

The Weather Channel
18/8/3

Weather Tiger
15/7/3

University of Arizona
18/8/4 ACE: 137

North Carolina University
15 to 18 Storms/7 to 9 Hurricanes/2 to 3 Major Hurricanes

The analog years I am using are in which we had a strong La Nina winter and the forecast is either Neutral to La Nina, while not ruling out El Nino. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain with El Nino or Neutral.

Based on this, the analog years are 1871, 1880, 1951, 1972, 1974, 1989, 1999, 2000, 2008, and 2011. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), New Zealand Warm Pool (NZWP), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR). Here is the ocean temperature anomaly map. It is from Tropical Tidbits.

Analog Years For 2021 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1871 (8/6/2 88 11.0)
1880 (11/9/2 131 11.9)
1951 (12/8/3 126 10.5)
1972 (7/3/0 36 5.1)
1974 (11/4/2 68 6.2)
1989 (11/7/2 135 12.3)
1999 (12/8/5 177 14.7)
2000 (15/8/3 119 7.9)
2008 (16/8/5 146 9.1)
2011 (19/7/4 126 6.6)

All of the seasons had major hurricane, except 1972. The most active is 2011 with 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. However, in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that goes to 1999. The least active is 1972 which only had 3 hurricanes and no major hurricanes. Any season before satellite should be considered suspect. Even in satellite, some data is rather questionable.

Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.

1871
Hurricane #3
Hurricane #4 or 1871 Santa Juana Hurricane

1880
Hurricane #2
Hurricane #4

1951
Charlie
How

1972
Agnes

1974
Carmen
Fifi

1989
Chantal
Hugo
Jerry

1999
Bret
Dennis
Floyd
Irene
Lenny

2000
Gordon
Keith
Leslie

2008
Dolly
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Omar
Paloma

2011
Arlene
Irene

The analog season has some deadly and memorable storms. One of the deadliest hurricanes is Fifi, which claimed over 8,000 lives in Central America. Agnes flooded the Northeastern US. Fifi remains one of the deadliest Atlantic as of today. Charlie claimed over 250 lives in Jamaica. Hugo ravaged Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and South Carolina. Floyd menaced East Coast, while Irene lingered over Florida. Lenny ravaged Virgin Islands, Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Lesser Antilles. Dolly, Fay, Hanna, Gustav, and Ike ravaged the US. Fay, Hanna, Gustav, and Ike ravaged Haiti. Irene went over the Eastern US. I am not suggesting 2021 will see something like Charlie, Agnes, Fifi, Hugo, Floyd, Keith, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, and Irene.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms. It was created with QGIS. The hurricane data came from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS).

The heat map have Upper Texas Coast, Southeastern US, Bahamas, and Mexico. However, when you look at the whole basin, everyone is at risk for landfall. I never make landfall predictions as I strongly object to doing landfall forecasts this early. Everyone is at equal risk.

Here is a statistical analysis of analog seasons vs all season. It was done with PSPP.

Analog

Tropical StormMean12.2
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundLower Bound9.61
95% Confidence Interval Upper BoundUpper Bound14.79
Median11.5
Std. Deviation3.61
HurricaneMean6.8
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundLower Bound5.42
95% Confidence Interval Upper BoundUpper Bound8.18
Median7.5
Std. Deviation1.93
Major HurricaneMean2.8
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundLower Bound1.69
95% Confidence Interval Upper BoundUpper Bound3.91
Median2.5
Std. Deviation1.55
ACEMean115.23
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundLower Bound86.15
95% Confidence Interval Upper BoundUpper Bound144.32
Median126.31
Std. Deviation40.65
ACE/StormMean9.55
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundLower Bound7.34
95% Confidence Interval Upper BoundUpper Bound11.75
Median9.82
Std. Deviation3.08

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2020.

Tropical StormMean10.26
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundLower Bound9.53
95% Confidence Interval Upper BoundUpper Bound10.99
Median10
Std. Deviation4.55
HurricaneMean5.64
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundLower Bound5.2
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundUpper Bound6.07
Median5
Std. Deviation2.69
Major HurricaneMean2.06
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundLower Bound1.79
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundUpper Bound2.33
Median2
Std. Deviation1.65
ACEMean94.28
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundLower Bound85.51
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundUpper Bound103.06
Median83.47
Std. Deviation54.57
ACE/StormMean9.24
95% Confidence Interval Lower BoundLower Bound8.61
95% Confidence Interval Upper BoundUpper Bound9.88
Median8.62
Std. Deviation3.95

The 95% Confidence Interval for analog season vs the whole season is wide. Analog seasons could either be inactive or active. Analog seasons are above average compared to the whole season.

What is my prediction for this season?
14 to 22 named storms, likely 17 named storms
6 to 12 hurricanes, likely 9 hurricanes
2 to 6 major hurricanes with 4 major hurricanes
ACE is 120 to 190 with ACE likely of 130 to 180

Let’s see how my April 2020 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2020 season.

12 to 20 named storms, likely 16 named storms
6 to 12 hurricanes, likely 9 hurricanes
2 to 6 major hurricanes with 4 major hurricanes
ACE is 120 to 220 with ACE likely of 140 to 200

Colorado State University
16/8/4 ACE: 150

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
14 to 20 Storms/7 to 11 Hurricanes/3 to 6 Major Hurricanes ACE: 145 to 195

Tropical Storm Risk
16/8/3 ACE: 130

Accuweather
14 to 18 Storms/7 to 9 Hurricanes/2 to 4 Major Hurricanes

Crown Weather
15/8/3

The Weather Channel
18/9/4

Weather Tiger
16/8/4

University of Arizona
19/10/5 ACE: 163

North Carolina University
18 to 22 Storms/8 to 11 Hurricanes/3 to 5 Major Hurricanes

2020 Actual Number
30 Named Storms
14 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes
180 ACE

Many including myself got the forecast off. The 2020 Hurricane Season was more active than forecasted. The ACE was under compared to the actual ACE. I did get the ACE right. There is always room for improvement.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2021 could be an interesting hurricane season. It could be a harry one with the COVID-19 pandemic going on. Viruses are unpredictable like weather. If you want to read more about the COVID-19 pandemic, you can check out my other blog, The Ebola Zone.

The Coming Freeze

It is looking likely it is going to get very cold next week. This comes during the COVID-19 pandemic. If you want to read more about the coronavirus, check my other blog, The Ebola Zone.

The forecast models are all over the place of how low it will go. Same goes with snowfall forecast. The consensus is the lowest temperature will be on Tuesday. The temperature is in Fahrenheit. Here are forecast models from Weather.US. They are all at 6:00 AM on February 16, 2021.

The forecast modes are:
EURO (European)
ICON (German)
GFS (American)
GEM (Canadian)
ACCESS-G (Australia)
UK (United Kingdom)
ARPEGE (France)
CMA (China)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)

EURO
ICON
GFS
CMC
ACCESS-G
UK
ARPEGE
CMA
GDAPS/UM

The ICON, Canadian, and UK have the coldest temperature. The UK forecasts below zero in Houston! That would be a record low if that is the case! The lowest temperature recorded in Houston is 5°F on January 18, 1930. It is likely Houston has seen subzero temperature, but not recorded. It could of happened during solar minimum. Solar minimum is when sunspot activity is low. It could also happen after a major volcanic eruption. The CMA has a relatively balmy 20s as lows. That is the highest forecast low.

I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. The forecast lows are from forecast models for Houston.

Forecast ModelTemperature
EURO (European)16
ICON (German)5
GFS (American)11
GEM (Canadian)4
ACCESS-G (Australia)17
UK (United Kingdom)-2
ARPEGE (France)19
CMA (China)23
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)18

Mean: 12.33°F
Median: 16°F
Standard Deviation: 8.34
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound: 5.93°F
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound: 18.74°F

The mean low is around 12°F and median low is 16°F. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 5.93°F to 18.74°F. The mean and standard deviation is lower from yesterday. It is probable the low will be somewhere between 6°F to 19°F. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be sub zero or above freezing. I can say with 95% confidence that the low is probably going to be somewhere between 6°F to 19°F with the mean at 12°F.

Wintry precipitation and snowfall is looking more likely for Texas. Here is the snowfall forecast models and are in inches. It is by 6:00 AM on February 16, 2021.

They are:
EURO (European)
ICON (German)
GFS (American)
GEM (Canadian)
UK (United Kingdom)

EURO
ICON
GFS
GEM
UK

The ICON and GFS are bullish in terms of snowfall amounts for Texas. The GFS has 16 inches of snow near Bryan-College Station. Just northwest of Houston, GFS has nearly 10 inches of snowfall. The GEM and UK have lower snowfall amounts. The UK has the lowest snowfall amount overall for Texas. However, UK has higher snowfall amounts for Southeast Texas.

I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. The snowfall forecast totals are from forecast models for Houston.

Forecast ModelSnowfall
EURO1.2
ICON2
GFS2
GEM2
UK4

Mean: 2.24
Median: 2.00
Standard Deviation: 1.04
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound: 0.94
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound: 3.54

The mean snowfall total is 2.24 inches and median snowfall total is 2.00 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 0.94 to 3.54 inches. It is probable the snowfall amount is between 0.90 to 3.50 inches. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means there could be no snowfall or epic snowfall (think February 14-15, 1895 snowfall). I can say with 95% confidence that the snowfall amount is probably going to be somewhere between 0.90 to 3.50 inches with the mean at 2.20 inches. I would not be surprised if we see higher snowfall amounts.

Based on the forecast models, my forecast for lows on February 16, 2012 is going to be somewhere between 6°F to 18°F. Snowfall amount forecast is somewhere between 0.50 to 3.50 inches. The forecast depends on where you are.

The forecasts models are subject to change. It will likely change again.