Tropical Storm Cindy For 6/21/2017 2200 CDT

Tropical Storm Cindy is getting closer to land. The latest position from National Hurricane Center is 95 miles or 153 kilometers from Port Arthur, Texas as of 10:00 PM or 2200 CDT. Here is the latest Doppler radar image out of NWS Lake Charles.

It is moving 7 mph or 11 kilometers north-northwest. Cindy could make landfall between 3:00 AM to 5:00 AM or 0300 to 0500 CDT at this rate. The question is where Cindy will make landfall.

The data is from UCAR, to be more specific from ATCF data file. I also included the 5 day cone from National Hurricane Center.Looks to make landfall in East Texas our Southwest Louisiana. Still cannot rule a landfall closer to Houston at this time as tropical cyclones tend to wobble. The area around the center of Cindy has produced heavy rain.

Many areas have seen 1 to 2 inches or 2.54 to 5.08 centimeters of rain per hour. Doppler radar estimates the heaviest rainfall rate is 4 inches or 10.16 centimeters per hour! Some areas could see as much as 5 inch or 12.7 centimeters per hour!

Many areas have seen 3 to 6 inches or 7.62 to 15.24 centimeters of rain based on Doppler radar estimates. The highest is 11 inches or 27.94 centimeters of rain. Again, Doppler radar tends to underestimate rainfall totals. I suspect the highest rainfall total is around 12 to 14 inches or 30.48 to 35.56 centimeters of of rain. I think Houston area could see rain from Cindy, especially later tonight. Rainfall total should be about 1 to 3 inches or 2.54 to 7.62 centimeters with amount as high as 5 inches or 12.7 centimeters of rain. I would not be surprised if thunderstorms form on the west side of Cindy and dumps heavy rain over the Houston area while you sleep.

Once Cindy makes landfall, where does it go? Could it stall out over Texas and dump more heavy rain like Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 did? Or could it just move away from Texas? Here is the next 5 day forecast model.

The cone and heat map has Cindy moving towards Arkansas. No forecast model has Cindy stalling over Texas. It can be possible that Cindy will stall over Texas, but that is unlikely at this point. The forecast models are divided where Cindy will go once inland. It can go to the Midwest and Canada or go all the way to the East Coast. Right now, we should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cindy as it is getting closer to land.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 For 6/19/2017 2100 CDT

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, which in my opinion should be named as Cindy as Bret is already taken and traversing across South America. A Bret once paid a visit to South Texas as a Category 3 hurricane on August 22, 1999. A Cindy also paid a visit to Southeast Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on September 17, 1963. Cindy was a rainmaker as it dumped nearly 24 inches of rain (61 centimeters) of rain in Deweyville, Texas. Just in 24 hours, 20.60 inches (52.3 centimeters) fell!

Here is a heat map forecast. It is from from , to be more specific from ATCF data file. The intensity forecast is also from the same link at UCAR.

spite the forecast models having go towards Louisiana.

In terms of intensity, it is already a tropical storm.

Most intensity forecast models keep it as a tropical storm. None have Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 as a hurricane at this time. I do not think it will be a hurricane at this time. It will be a messy tropical storm. Most of the heavy rain is east of the center. Even if Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 made landfall over Galveston, most of the rain would be east. If Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 made landfall around Matagorda County, Houston area could get some heavy rain.

Depending on where Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 goes, Southeast Texas could see tropical storm force winds as early as Tuesday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center-Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 I would not be surprised if it is breezy by tomorrow afternoon.

The forecast is subject to change for Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, so please keep an eye on the weather.

Atlantic Hurricane Season In June

As we are in June and hurricane season is heating up. Where do most June tropical storms and hurricanes form and end up going?

Here is a GIS heat map I created. This is all June tropical storms and hurricanes from 1870 to 2015.

Most June tropical storms and hurricanes form in the Gulf of Mexico, Southwest Caribbean, and off the Carolinas. No surprise that Texas and Florida are most vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes in June.

Latest On Typhoon Haima As Of 10:00 PM CST October 19, 2016

Typhoon Haima made landfall as a Category 4 typhoon on Baguio Point in the Cagayan Province with 140 mph winds. The highest wind on land is 119 mph with gusts of 179 mph. The highest measured gust was 124 mph, which is no picnic. One weather station recorded 7 inches of rain in one hour! That would cause a flood for sure. 7 inches of rain in one hour has happened in Southeast Texas during Tropical Storm Allison on June 8-9, 2001. That resulted in 28 inches of rain in 12 hours! As of right now, Haima is a Category 2 typhoon with 110 mph winds. Haima is moving at 14 mph west northwest.

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Where, Typhoon Haima go next after it ravaged the Philippines? Most have Haima making landfall on the Southern China coast. Hong Kong and Macau are also at risk for landfall. That part of China is heavily populated. Everyone China should prepare for Haima as it can be a dangerous storm for them. Interestingly, some models have Haima lopping back towards the Philippines again, like Hurricane Matthew with Florida. That never happened by the way.

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How intense will Haima be by the time it is on China’s door step? Despite being a Category 2 typhoon, Haima is forecast to weaken. It could still maintain its intensity and get stronger. Intensity forecast is not an exact science. One factor is when Haima gets closer to China, it will draw in dry air, which can weaken Haima further. Most forecast have Haima making landfall as a Category 1 typhoon with 92 mph winds. That means most areas will see 50 to 75 mph winds with gusts of 75 to 85 mph.

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Haima is going to be more of a rain maker. Many areas could see 8 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals of 20 inches. Even if Haima makes landfall as a Category 1 typhoon, it should not be taken lightly. Heavy rain and flooding will be the main issue for China.

Latest On Typhoon Haima As Of 10:00 PM CST October 18, 2016

Super Typhoon Haima is now a Category 5 typhoon with 160 mph winds and central pressure of somewhere between 904 to 930 millibars. This is not measured directly. Hurricane force winds extend up to 60 miles, while tropical storm force winds extend up to 210 miles. It has grown as it has intensified. Where it does is very concerning. Haima is moving 16 mph to the west northwest. It looks to affect the Philippines in the next day.

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Looks to be making landfall on the Northern Philippines as a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds. The size forecast is also worrying. Haima is getting larger. By the time it is over the Philippines, hurricane force winds could extend up to 75 miles with tropical storm force winds extending up to 260 miles. Once it crosses over and weakens, but tropical storm force wind field gets larger.

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Once Haima passes Philippines, it is likely to weaken. The forecast models do not have Haima intensifying into a Category 3 storm once it passes Philippines. I think it has the potential to intensify into a Category 3 typhoon before it makes landfall on China.

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Another concerning aspect of Haima is heavy rain. Many areas could see 6 to 12 inches of rain. Mountainous areas could see 20 to 30 inches of rain. This can lead to deadly flooding on top heavy rain that has fallen from Typhoon Sarika. The heavy rain from Haima will make things worse. On top of the heavy rain and flooding, Philipines could likely see sustained winds of 80 to 120 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 180 mph! The highest sustained winds are in a small area and very few will experience it. The gusts is more dangerous as it can knock things over quickly! The Philippines better prepare for Haima. It will get very rough for them.

Latest On Typhoon Haima As Of 10:00 PM CST October 17, 2016

Typhoon Haima is ramping up in the West Pacific. It is a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds and central pressure of 933 millibars. It is based on satellite estimates called Dvorak technique. I would take that with a grain of salt because it not measured directly. I suspect it is stronger, possibly around 150 mph with central pressure of 925 millibars. The ambient pressure in Typhoon Basin is lower, which is one reason why it is a very active basin. Hurricane force winds extend up to 45 miles, while tropical storm force winds extend up to 140 miles. Typhoons are generally larger than other tropical cyclones in the basin, including the Atlantic. The largest tropical cyclone is Super Typhoon Tip of 1979. Tip had tropical storm force winds extend up to 675 miles! Haima is much smaller than Tip thankfully.

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Where it goes has me concerned. This heat map forecast of where Haima will go has it focused on the Northern Philippines. It is moving at 14 mph to the west northwest. It is also getting more stronger as it goes over warmer waters off the Philippine coasts.

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The intensity forecast model mostly keep it as a Category 4. A couple have it as a Category 5 Super Typhoon. I think Haima will rapidly intensify into a Category 5 Super Typhoon. It will probably intensify to 180 mph with central pressure of 895 millibars before it comes close to the Philippines in two days. It is going to be severe typhoon for the Philippines.

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They could experience winds of 80 to 140 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 210 mph! They could see rain amounts of 8 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals of 40 inches, especially in the mountainous areas. Deadly flooding and mudslides would be a major problem on top of the strong winds. The forecast shows Haima getting larger as it approaches the Philippines. It has hurricane force winds extending up to 90 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 235 miles. That is a large typhoon right there. That would be considered large in the Atlantic. Philippines better prepare for Haima. It is going to be very nasty for them.

Latest On Hurricane Nicole As Of 8:00 PM AST October 12, 2016

Hurricane Nicole is now the third major hurricane of the season. This hurricane has been around when Matthew was ravaging the Haiti, Cuba, and Southeaster US. Nicole has always carried along being overshadowed by Matthew. Now, Nicole has proven herself well despite Matthew. It has 115 mph winds and central pressure of 956 millibars. It is impressive on satellite.

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Hurricane Nicole has hurricane force winds extending up to 45 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 160 miles. Since, Bermuda is an island, they could easily experience 115 mph winds with gusts as high as 173 mph! Most likely, they will see winds of 60 to 100 mph with gusts of 90 to 150 mph.

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I think Nicole will intensify further. Afterwards, it should weaken as it heads to cooler waters of the North Atlantic. I would not be surprised if Nicole peaks at 125 mph. If that is the case, Nicole would be one of the strongest hurricanes to hit Bermuda since Fabian in 2003.

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The forecast is in disagreement of where Nicole will go. It could go directly over Bermuda or go east or west of Bermuda. Interestingly, northeast of Bermuda, there is a consensus that Nicole will go as an extratropical storm. Nicole’s path will have an impact on Bermuda. If Nicole goes east of Bermuda, than the effects will be less severe. If Nicole goes west or directly over Bermuda, it will be much worse with strong winds and heavy rain. To make matters worse, rain will be an issue as it is moving at 10 mph. That should dump around 10 inches of rain. Bermuda could see amounts of 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated totals of 15 inches of rain.

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Hurricane Nicole will probably make landfall on Bermuda later tonight to early tomorrow morning. It will be a rough night for them. Hopefully they are prepared for Hurricane Nicole.