Flash Gordon

Tropical Gordon has formed yesterday near Florida. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently has Gordon as a tropical storm with 60 mph 52 knots 97 km/h winds. It is a rather small tropical storm. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 60 miles 52 nautical miles 97 kilometers.

The question is where does Gordon go and how strong will it be. Here is a heat map forecast based on forecast within 300 miles. The forecast points are from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance.

Most of the forecast models have Gordon making landfall somewhere between Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. There is a remote chance that Texas could get hit by Gordon. Looks like Gordon could make landfall as early as tomorrow. The intensity forecast models are mixed.

Most keep Gordon as a tropical storm due to its fast motion. A couple have Gordon as a Category 1 hurricane. Due to its small size and warm water, I would not be surprised if Gordon becomes a Category 2 or even 3 hurricane before landfall. Intensity forecast models are not reliable.

The Gulf Of Mexico water is on the warm side from NOAA/AOML-Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential. If conditions are right, Gordon could rapidly intensify as it travels over the Loop Current of the Gulf Of Mexico. Gordon is likely to be a small hurricane before landfall.

The NHC issues probability of where hurricane force winds may occur.

The highest probability for hurricane force winds are off the coast. If Gordon makes landfall as a hurricane, the coastal areas would most likely feel hurricane force winds. Inland areas would have tropical storm force winds with occasional hurricane force gust.

Here is my take.
-Gordon will likely become a hurricane by tomorrow.
-Gordon is most likely to make landfall along the Central Gulf Coast.
-Strong winds and heavy rain will be the main problem.

For anyone in the warning areas, please take heed the warnings. Storm surge and flooding are not something to mess with.

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Lane’s Wrath

Hurricane Lane is a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph 109 knots 201 km/h winds. It has gusts as high as 150 mph 130 knots 241 km/h. The latest satellite image of Lane shows the hurricane is less intense as it is less organized than last night. It suggests that Lane is weakening, but that does not reduce the danger of Lane. Hawaii would have to deal with strong winds, high waves, storm surge, and heavy rain.

Most forecast models have Lane weakening to a Category 1 hurricane to tropical storm as it gets closer to Hawaii this weekend. As mentioned previously, satellite presentation does suggest Lane is weakening. The next question is is it possible that Lane could make landfall?

The heat map forecast from various forecast models from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance with radius of 300 miles. It is possible that Lane could make landfall somewhere on Hawaii. It could be Oahu, Moloka’i, and Lana’i. That would be very bad it Lane made landfall on Oahu, which is the most populated Hawaiian island. It looks to be lingering for the next several days as it is a slow moving hurricane. That would be a problem as slow moving tropical cyclones dump heavy rain. Case in point, Harvey. One huge concern is flooding from Lane, regardless of intensity.

The rainfall forecast models are from GFS, Canadian, EURO, and ICON. They are all 7 day rainfall total forecast from Weather.US.

The rainfall amount forecast is all over the place. Let alone where the heavy rain falls. Most have 10 to 20 inches/25.4 to 50.8 centimeters of rain falling. ICON has the lowest with 13 inches/33 centimeters of rain, while EURO has nearly 36 inches/91.4 centimeters of rain, which is over Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. The mountainous terrain is conducive to deadly mudslide and flooding. Also, mountainous areas have heavier rain. I would be more concerned about heavy rain and flooding from Lane than strong winds. Doppler radar out of NWS Hawaii shows heavy rain is already falling in parts of Hawaii as of 5:15 PM Hawaiian Time.

Doppler radar estimate out of Kohala show up to 15 inches/38.1 centimeters or higher has fallen already from Lane. There is no doubt that 36 inches/91.4 centimeters is likely to fall in Hawaii. I would not be surprised if some areas see up to 50 inches/127 centimeters of rain once it is all over. That is very concerning. The live camera from Waikiki Beach shows a calm beach despite Lane coming ever so closer. Come tomorrow and Saturday, it will be very different.

Here is my take.
-Oahu, Maui, and Kauai could be impacted by Lane as early as Friday.
-Strong winds, heavy rain, high waves, and storm surge will be a major problem.
-Flooding, not strong winds, will be the main problem.

Powerful Lane

Hurricane Lane was a powerful Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph 140 knots 257 km/h wind. It still remains a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph 125 knots 233 km/h wind. It is 260 miles 226 nautical miles 418 km south of Kailua. The biggest question is where will Lane go.

Some of the forecast models have Lane going over Oahu, Moloka’i, and Lana’i. That could be really bad, especially for Oahu where Honolulu is located. They would be pelted by strong winds, heavy rain, high waves, and storm surge. If Lane was to make landfall as a hurricane on Hawaii, it would be the first for this century. The last time a hurricane made landfall on Hawaii was Hurricane Iniki in 1992. Iniki made landfall on Kauaʻi on September 11, 1992. It is the most intense hurricane recorded to make landfall on Hawaii as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph 125 knots 233 km/h wind and central pressure of 938 millibars. It produced gust as high as 227 mph 197 knots 365 km/h! 1992 had three major hurricanes make landfall on American states and territories. First was Andrew that struck on August 24, 1992 on South Florida, Super Typhoom Omar on Guam on August 28, 1992, and Iniki on September 11, 1992 on Hawaii.

The next question is how strong will Lane be in the next couple of days.

Most intensity forecast models have Lane weakening to a Category 1 hurricane to tropical storm by the time it gets closer to Hawaii. Intensity forecast models are not reliable. I would not be surprised if Lane is still major hurricane by the time it is closer to Hawaii. Here is the most recent NWS Honolulu Doppler radar as of 5:26 PM Hawaii Standard Time.

Doppler radar is picking up the outer bands of Hurricane Lane. It is getting ever so closer to Hawaii. Here is a live camera from Waikiki Beach. It looks so peaceful and serene, yet a powerful hurricane is lurking and getting ever so closer to Hawaii. I can imagine in the next couple of days, it will look very different.

Here is my take.
-Lane is likely to be a hurricane as it approaches Hawaii, possibly a major hurricane.
-Oahu, Maui, and Kauai could be impacted by Lane.
-Strong winds, heavy rain, high waves, and storm surge will be a major problem.

The forecast model came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. Special thanks to all of them.

Volcano And Hurricane Lane

Powerful Hurricane Lane has 155 mph 135 knots 249 km/h with gusts approaching 190 mph 165 knots 306 km/h. It is about 400 miles 348 nautical miles 640 km south of Hawaii. This is from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. I would not be surprised if Lane is already a Category 5 hurricane. The UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based-Dvorak Technique, which uses satellite to determine intensity suggests that Lane is a Category 5 hurricane with at least 160 mph 140 knots 257 km/h. I usually tend to weigh Dvorak Technique less because the intensity is not measured directly and is based on satellite presentation. It also does not handle pinhole eyes well. More about Dvorak Technique. Regardless, I think Lane is a Category 5 hurricane already.

The biggest question is where does Lane go? The most recent forecast model have Lane turning northward towards Hawaii.

Some of the forecast models have Lane going over the Big Island of Hawaii and some have it going over Oahu, where Honolulu is located. The Big Island has had to deal with volcanic eruption from Kīlauea. I would not be surprised if Lane does make landfall on the Big Island. From there, Lane is forecasted to head towards Maui, Oahu, and Kauai. The next question is how strong will Lane be by the time it gets close to Hawaii?

Lane is forecasted to be near the Big Island within a couple of days. The intensity forecast model has Lane as a Category 2 to 3 hurricane. That means the Big Island will have to deal with strong winds and heavy rain. This is on top of large waves and storm surge. Once it approaches the Big Island, Lane would weaken due to increased wind shear and interaction with Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. Once Lane goes passed the Big Island and heads towards Oahu, the forecast models have Lane as a Category 1 or tropical storm strength. Intensity forecasting has a long way to go. Lane could still be a major hurricane by the time it heads towards Maui or Oahu.

Another concern is rainfall. Mountainous terrains tend to have higher rainfall totals, especially on the windward side. Waipa in the island of Kauai had nearly 50 inches/127 centimeters of rainfall on April 14-15, 2018. It happened in a 24 hour period! That eclipses Tropical Storm Claudette that dumped 43 inches/109 centimeters of rain near Alvin on July 25-26, 1979. Hurricane Harvey dumped that amount over a five day period. It was also over a more populated area with large area of heavy rain.

The rainfall forecast models are from GFS, Canadian, EURO, and ICON. They are all 7 day rainfall total forecast.

The rainfall amount forecast is all over the place. Most have the Big Island and Kauai getting the heaviest rain from Lane. The amounts forecasted is generally 10 to 15 inches/25.4 to 381. centimeters of rain. The GFS has the highest with over 38 inches/96.5 centimeters of rain. It falls around Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. Regardless of where the rain falls, flooding and mudslides will be the main problem. They can be dangerous and deadly!

Here is my take.
-Lane is likely a Category 5 hurricane.
-Big Island Of Hawaii will impact from Lane in a couple of days.
-Oahu, Maui, and Kauai could be impacted by Lane.

The forecast models came from Weather.US and NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. Special thanks to all of them.

First Major Hurricane Of 2018?

Hurricane Chris is now a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph 169 km/h 90 knots winds. It looks quite impressive on satellite from the National Hurricane Center. It looks almost like a major hurricane to me. Some of the intensity forecast models have Chris as the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Season.

Quite frankly, I would not be surprised if Chris becomes a Category 3 hurricane. It could very well be Category 3 by tomorrow morning. A major hurricane in July is rare, but not unheard of. The last time there was a major hurricane in July was Bertha in 2008. We also have two hurricanes so far, Beryl and Chris. The last time we had two hurricanes in July was 2005, which were Dennis and Emily. Emily is the earliest know Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. Both 2005 and 2008 were devastating seasons. Both affected Texas in the form of Rita in 2005 and Dolly and Ike in 2008.

The next question is where does Chris go?

The consensus is that Chris is moving away from the US coast and moving rapidly due to a cool front. Rough seas will be the main problem for the Eastern Seaboard. Some of the forecast models have it making landfall on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada as an extratropical storm. That will be a major problem for them. Some have Chris making landfall on Iceland, United Kingdom, and Norway.

Irma Ravages Florida Part 2

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Hurricane Irma is near Tampa and it is a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph 160 km/h 87 knot winds, which is on land 85 mph 136 km/h 74 knots. Gusts are as high as 128 mph 205 km/h 111 knots. Hurricane force winds are up to 150 miles 240 km 130 nautical miles across from northeast to southeast quadrant. Tropical force winds are up to 690 miles 1,104 km 600 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. It is a large hurricane!

Tropical storm force winds are engulfing a large portion of Florida. It is even felt in Georgia and South Carolina! That is how large Irma is. Irma got large because it is over land, which disrupts the core. There is also a cold front. Those two make Irma larger as energy is spread out. The same reason why Ike got larger before making landfall on Texas in 2008.

Irma continues to get closer to Tampa. Here is the forecast model of where Irma will go. This is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Irma. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

Interesting to note there is not much of a consensus of where Irma will go. Interestingly, there appears to be some cluster where Irma will go in the next five days. Looks like Irma may end up over Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, and Illinois.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Tampa Bay Area will be ravaged by Irma.
-Storm surge and strong winds will be the main issue.
-Flooding from storm surge and heavy rain will be widespread.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance and National Hurricane Center, . Special thanks to all of them.

Irma Ravages Florida

Hurricane Irma made landfall made landfall on Cudjoe Key, Florida as a Category 4 hurricane with 929 millibars. It is moving north at 9 mph. Irma is a very large hurricane.

The Southeast Doppler mosaic has Irma engulfing a large portion of Florida. Many areas are getting heavy rain and strong winds. Hurricane force winds are up to 138 miles 221 km 120 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant and northeast to southeast quadrant. Tropical force winds are up to 437 miles 699 km 380 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. Irma has gotten larger, which is a bad thing.

Hurricane force winds are felt in Southern Florida from Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Collier County. Many areas are reporting hurricane force winds. A crane had collapsed in Miami and storm surge is higher than forecasted. This is despite the fact that Irma is west of the area. This puts Miami over the dirty side. This leads to the next question, where does Irma go? Here is the forecast model of where Irma will go. This is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Irma. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

The first one I will show is for Florida. It has Irma going on the western wide of Florida. It could go over the Gulf of Mexico and west or east of Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is one of the high risk area for storm surge due to its geography. Storm surge ravaging Tampa Bay would be worse than Katrina ravaging New Orleans and Mississippi or Sandy ravaging New York City area. You did not misread it. Tampa Bay is the worst for storm surge. Irma could go near Tampa Bay and this would be very bad.

The second one is where Irma goes once inland. There is a hot spot over Tennessee and Kentucky. This suggest that Irma may end up over that region. From there, it could east or northeast. Heavy rain will be the main problem inland depending on how fast Irma moves. The slower Irma moves, more chance for heavy rain.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Irma is going to ravage Florida.
-Storm surge and high waves will be a problem on the coast.
-Tampa Bay Area could get the brunt of Irma.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, National Hurricane Center, , and National Weather Service. Special thanks to all of them.