Future Barry Part 1

Invest 92L is currently an area of thunderstorms over Georgia. It is forecasted to move southwards towards the Gulf Of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives a high chance that Invest 92L developing into something tropical. Conditions are generally favorable due to warm water and less wind shear.

The biggest question is where does Invest 92L goes. It is too early to tell. I created a heat map with mix of the latest forecast, which is 0000Z and 1800Z GFS ensemble track guidance. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

Most of the forecast models have Invest 92L going westward towards Louisiana and Texas. Houston area does have a risk of seeing Invest 92L going over by this weekend. Keep in mind, this is an early forecast model and anything can change between now and later this week. That begs the next question, will Invest 92L become Barry.

Here is an intensity forecast model. It is also from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance.

A number of forecast models have a tropical storm within the next few days. None have hurricane force at this time. Again, it is early to tell if Invest 92L will become a hurricane or not. Anything is possible with Invest 92L.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Invest 92L could become Barry in the next few days.
-Regardless of development, heavy rain will be the main problem for Texas and Louisiana.
-Flooding is likely where heavy rain falls.

Invest 92L bears watching between now to the end of the week. Be weather ready.

Advertisements

Invest 91L As Barry?

Invest 91L is in the Gulf of Mexico. It is a low pressure area with thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center gives it a moderate chance of developing in the next few days. The biggest question is where does Invest 91L go. Here is a heat map generated from forecast models from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is within 300 miles of a forecast track point.

The forecast models have Invest 91L heading northward towards Texas. It could hug the Texas Coast or make landfall somewhere on Texas. Not often a tropical system hugs the Texas Coast like this. The 1837 Racer’s Hurricane hugged the Texas Coast before making landfall in the Southern US. It was a hurricane, unlike Invest 91L. That leads to the next question, how strong will 91L be?

The intensity forecast is from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. The intensity forecast models keep Invest 91L below tropical storm. I do not put a lot of weight on intensity forecast models. They are unreliable. I would not be surprised if 91L becomes a tropical storm, which would be Barry.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Invest 91L could become Barry.
-Regardless of development, heavy rain will be the main problem for Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
-Flooding is likely where heavy rain falls.

Invest 91L bears watching between now to the end of the week.

April 2019 Hurricane Season Forecast

Many areas are still reeling from Harvey, Irma, Maria, and as of late Michael. Michael was updated to a Category 5 at landfall. Not surprised by it. Many people lost their properties and are rebuilding. Some lost their life. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2019.

Colorado State University
13/5/2 ACE: 80

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10 to 15 Storms/4 to 7 Hurricanes/0 to 2 Major Hurricanes ACE: 60 to 110

Tropical Storm Risk
12/5/2 ACE: 81

Accuweather
10/5/3

Crown Weather
10/6/3

The Weather Channel
12/6/2

The analog years I am using are in which El Nino started late and is forecasted to be El Nino for the rest of the year to next year. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain.

Based on this, the analog years are 1940, 1969, 1987, 1992, 1993, and 2015. They are part of a multi-year El Nino or El Nino that is gone for a short time, only to return again later like in 1992 and 1993. 1940, 1969, 1987, and 2015 are multi-year El Nino. El Nino is not the only factor. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), Southern Ocean/Roaring Forties, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)

Analog Years For 2018 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1940 9/6/0 68 7.6
1969 18/12/5 166 9.2
1987 7/3/1 34 4.9
1992 7/4/1 76 10.9
1993 8/4/1 39 4.9
2015 11/4/2 63 5.3

All of the seasons had major hurricane, except 1940. However, I consider that suspect because of no satellite back then. The most active is 1969 with 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Many other forecasts have 1969 as an analog year.

Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.

1940
Hurricane #2 or the 1940 Louisiana Hurricane makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane on Sabine Pass, Texas. The slow movement led to massive rainfall totals of up to 38 inches! Some areas likely saw over 40 inches of rain. 20,000 square miles was affected by heavy rain, which had an average of 12.10 inches! The storm set many state rainfall records for Louisiana, which still stand to this very day. However, some areas in Louisiana may have seen 40 inches of rain from Harvey.

Hurricane #3 or the 1940 South Carolina Hurricane hits South Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane as it made landfall on Beaufort, South Carolina. The storm dumps heavy rain of up to 21 inches triggering deadly mudslides in Appalachia. It is probable some areas saw 30 inches or greater. The widespread heavy rain triggers massive flooding. The storm claims a total of 52 lives.

Hurricane #4 or the 1940 New England Hurricane ravages New England before hitting Nova Scotia. The hurricane moisture and a stationary cold front leads to heavy rain over New Jersey including up to 24 inches, which is the wettest for the Garden State to this very day.

Hurricane #5 or the 1940 Nova Scotia Hurricane hits Nova Scotia just weeks after 1940 New England Hurricane. It hits Nova Scotia as a Category 1 hurricane. The hurricane caused shipping disruption in the North Atlantic. The hurricane causes damage in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. There are three fatalities, in which two are off of America in ships.

1969
Hurricane Camille hit Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane. Than Camille underwent explosive intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Camille had 900 millibars and 175 mph wind prior to making landfall on Mississippi Delta and Mississippi as a Category 5 hurricane. Gusts went high as 250 mph! The remants of Camille and cold front set off core rains over Western Virginia with extremely heavy rains centered over Nelson County, Virginia. Up 27 inches of rain was confirmed with a total as high as 31 inches in a barrel away from the center. It is probable up to 40 to 50 inches of rain fell in eight hours! Camille claimed 259 lives, mostly in Virginia from flooding.

Hurricane Francelia ravages Central America before making landfall on Belize. The slow moving hurricane dumped heavy rain over Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras. The hurricane claims 271 lives, making it the deadliest prior to Mitch in 1998.

1987
Tropical Storm #2, which is the 1987 Gulf Coast Tropical Storm makes landfall on Texas, but most the heavy rain is east of the center. The Gulf Coast saw rain amount as high as 21 inches in Van Cleave, Louisiana.

Hurricane Emily hits Dominican Republic as Category 2 hurricane and emerges as a tropical storm. However, it undergoes rapid intensification to Category 1 hurricane of 90 mph and goes directly over Bermuda. Emily is the strongest hurricane to hit Bermuda since Hurricane #6 (Dog) or the 1948 Bermuda-Newfoundland Hurricane.

1992
Hurricane Andrew ravaged Bahamas and Florida as a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds and 920 millibar pressure. It traversed over the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall on Central Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane. Once it was all done, South Florida was cut off from the world and did $27 billion in damages. Andrew was the costliest hurricane at the time prior to Katrina in 2005 and Harvey in 2017.

1993
Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall on Texas as a large tropical storm on June 19, 1993. It dumped heavy rain over a large area. The highest being over 15 inches of rain in Angleton. The system that became Arlene dumped heavy rain in El Salvador, which claimed 20 lives. There were five lives lost in Mexico. One died in Henderson, Texas. It claimed a total of 26 lives.

Tropical Storm Bret traveled across South America. It first made landfall on Galera Point, Trinidad and then goes over the Caribbean to make landfall on Macuro, Venezuela. It dumps heavy rain and triggers deadly mudslides. The highest measured is over 13 inches in Guanare with higher totals likely. Bret claims 173 lives in Venezuela, which is the deadliest along the 1999 Vargas Tragedy and 1967 Caracas Earthquake. The tropical storm goes over the Caribbean and makes landfall around Bahia Punta Gorda, Nicaragua. The storm dumps heavy rain over Central America, mainly in Nicaragua. The heavy rain leads to flooding and washes away villages. The storm claims 31 lives in Nicaragua. Bret goes over the East Pacific and becomes Hurricane Greg, which is a Category 4 hurricane.

Hurricane Emily is the only major hurricane of the 1993 Atlantic Season. It grazed North Carolina and came within 23 miles of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on August 31, 1993. Emily moved eastward after it grazed North Carolina. The hurricane produced 10 feet storm surge in Buxton and dumped up to 7 inches of rain. Three people died from Emily.

Hurricane Gert made landfall on Bluefields, Nucaragua as it is ravaged from Bret as a tropical storm on September 15, 1993. It goes over Honduras as a tropical depression. Heavy rain falls over Nicaragua and Honduras, which leads to massive flooding. A total of 64 people die in Nicaragua and Honduras from Gert. Nearly 18 inches of rain falls in Corinto. Gert makes landfall as a tropical storm on Belize, affecting the Yucatan Peninsula. Gert emerges into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression. From there, it becomes a Category 2 hurricane as it makes it final landfall north of Tuxpan as a Category 2 hurricane on September 20, 1993. Gert unleashes strong wind and heavy rain over Tamaulipas and Veracruz. The mountains see the heaviest rain with the highest total of over 31 inches in Aquismón with higher totals likely. The widespread rain leads to massive flooding that claims 45 lives in Mexico.

2015
Tropical Storm Bill made landfall on June 16, 2015 on Matagorda Island. Bill dumped heavy rain over Texas with a total of over 15 inches in Ganado, Texas. Bill weakens to a tropical depression and dumps heavy rain over Oklahoma with 8 inches of rain falling in Carter County. Bill claims 8 lives.

Tropical Storm Erika was a tropical storm that dumped heavy rain over Dominca. The mountainous terrain contribute to the heavy rain and deadly flooding and mudslide. Rainfall amount of 33 inches fell over Morne Diablotins. There was high precipitable water over Dominica. It was also north of the island. A total of 30 lives were lost in Dominica, which was the worst since Hurricane David in 1979.

Hurricane Joaquin is the strongest known Atlantic hurricane of non-tropical origin as it came from upper level low and surface low. Joaquin rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph on October 2, 2015. It moved southwestward towards the Bahamas. It first made landfall as a Category 4 on Samana Cay and then Category 3 on Rum Cay and San Salvador Island. Strong winds, high waves, storm surge, and heavy rain pelt Bahamas. A 18 feet storm surge was reported in Long Island. As the Bahamas are being ravaged by Joaquin, the SS El Faro sinks into the abyss claiming all 33 on board. To make matters worse, there is a surface low of the coast of Georgia and Florida, which is drawing in moisture from Joaquin. The setup leads to widespread heavy rain over South Carolina and North Carolina. Nearly 27 inches of rain fell in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. There is widespread flooding in South Carolina as there are 18 dam breaches from the heavy rain. The flood event in part from Joaquin claims 25 lives, including 19 in South Carolina.

Many of these notable storms in analog seasons were prodigious rainmakers. Some remain records yet to be broken. Some were intense like Camille and Andrew, which were Category 5 hurricanes and at landfall. I am not suggesting 2019 will see something like Camille, Andrew, 1940 Louisiana Hurricane, or Joaquin.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms.

The heat map shows the most active spot being off the Eastern US. Other hot spots are the Eastern Gulf Of Mexico, east of the Lesser Antilles, and off of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. However, when you look at the whole basin, everyone is at risk for landfall. I never make landfall predictions as I strongly object to doing landfall forecasts. The reason is everyone is at equal risk.

Analog
Mean
10/5.5/1.67
10/6/2 (Rounded Up)

Median
8.5/4/1
9/4/1 (Rounded Up)

Standard Deviation
4.2/3.33/1.75

ACE
Mean
74.33

Median
65.5

Standard Deviation
47.85

ACE/Storm
Mean
7.1

Median
6.4

Standard Deviation
2.54

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2018.

Mean
9.94/5.55/2.07
10/6/2

Median
10/5/2

Standard Deviation
4.24/2.63/1.68

ACE
Mean
93.34

Median
84

Standard Deviation
54.55

ACE/Storm
Mean
9.40

Median
8.67

Standard Deviation
4.03

The analog seasons are within standard deviation, which indicates this upcoming hurricane season is going to be within average.

What is my prediction for this season?
9 to 15 named storms, likely 12 named storms
5 to 10 hurricanes, likely 7 hurricanes
1 to 4 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 60 to 120 with ACE likely of 70 to 110

Let’s see how my April 2018 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2018 season.

11 to 16 named storms, likely 13 named storms
4 to 10 hurricanes, likely 7 hurricanes
1 to 4 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 80 to 140 with ACE likely of 100 to 125

Colorado State University
14/7/3 ACE: 130

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10 to 12 Storms/4 to 6 Hurricanes/1 to 2 Major Hurricanes ACE: 90 to 110

Tropical Storm Risk
12/6/2 ACE: 84

Accuweather
10/5/3

The Weather Channel
12/6/2

2018 Actual Number
15 Named Storms
8 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes
127 ACE

Many including myself got the forecast close. The 2018 Hurricane Season was forecasted about right, not over or under. There is always room for improvement.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2019 could be an interesting hurricane season.

2018-2019 Winter Forecast

It is this time. Winter is here and Christmas is coming. Christmas comes sooner and sooner every year. We have a warming equatorial Pacific, which suggests El Nino is developing. What will the Winter of 2018-2019 be like? Since we had La Nina last winter and a developing El Nino. Here are El Nino in which the previous winter was La Nina.
1876-1877
1899-1900
1904-1905
1911-1912
1918-1919
1925-1926
1939-1940
1951-1952
1957-1958
1963-1964
1965-1966
1968-1969
1972-1973
1976-1977
1986-1987
1997-1998
2006-2007
2009-2010

Here is a map of sea surface temperature anomaly.

I will also look at the ocean temperature as they are factors besides El Nino, to narrow it down. They are Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (TPI IPO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIOI), Roaring Forties (R40I), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The rest that are not linked, please click on Climate Indices. Not all El Nino winters are the same.

Here is the chart of analogs.

Year ENSO TPI IPO PDO AMO NEPWP EIOI DMI R40I QBO Total Note
1876-1877 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 No QBO Data
1899-1900 1 1 1 1 1 5 No QBO Data
1904-1905 1 1 2 No QBO Data
1911-1912 1 1 1 3 No QBO Data
1918-1919 1 1 1 1 4 No QBO Data
1925-1926 1 1 1 1 4 No QBO Data
1939-1940 1 1 1 1 4 No QBO Data
1951-1952 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
1957-1958 1 1 1 1 1 1 6
1963-1964 1 1 1 1 1 5
1965-1966 1 1 1 3
1968-1969 1 1 1 1 1 5
1972-1973 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
1976-1977 1 1 1 1 1 5
1986-1987 1 1 1 1 1 1 6
1997-1998 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
2006-2007 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8
2009-2010 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7

I narrowed it down.
1876-1877
1899-1900
1951-1952
1957-1958
1963-1964
1968-1969
1972-1973
1976-1977
1986-1987
1997-1998
2006-2007
2009-2010

To further it, I narrow down even further.
1876-1877
1951-1952
1972-1973
1997-1998
2006-2007
2009-2010

I will use this as the analog winter forecast. Let’s look at the upper air pattern at the 500 millibar level or 18,000 feet. All the maps are from 20th Century Reanalysis Monthly Composites.

There is ridging over Northeast Canada and Greenland. That is a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A negative NAO is more favorable for cold winters. Some of the coldest winters have occurred due to negative NAO as cold air from the Arctic region is shunted southward. There is troughing over Gulf Of Alaska and Far East Russia, which are positive East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). They are the North Pacific equivalent of NAO. There have been freezes when NAO is positive while EPO and WPO are negative, which is ridging over Alaska and Far East Russia. December 1983 and February 1989 freeze occurred due to negative EPO despite positive NAO.

What will the temperature be like at the surface?

Most of Russia, Central Asia, Arctic, and Alaska are cold. Same goes with Eastern US and Texas. This suggests this winter could be a cold one. Some of the coldest winters on record occurred in those analog years of 1972-1973 and 2009-2010. It is most warm over Northeastern Canada, Greenland, Korea, Japan, North Africa, and Southern Europe. It is no surprise that Northeastern Canada and Greenland are warm as there is ridging over the area.

Let’s look at temperature at 850 millibars or 5,000 feet.

The air is cold at 5,000 feet over Russia, Central Asia, Arctic, and Alaska. It is also cold mainly over Texas. The reason I am including this is if is freezing cold above the surface, it increases the chance for snow in the winter. One can have freezing cold at the surface, but warm above ground. That leads to freezing rain or sleet. For snow to form, the upper atmosphere needs to be cold. Snowfall occurs if the surface is not cold because the atmosphere is freezing. It is above that counts. Often when it snows, it is not really that cold.

Lastly, let’s look at precipitation rate.

It looks most wettest in Southeastern US, Southwest, and West Coast. It is also wet in Southern China, Korea, and Japan. It is also wet in Northern India, Nepal, Spain and Portugal. Southeast Texas looks to see about average rainfall.

How were winters like in these analog years?

1876-1877
I cannot find any weather records for Texas that winter. England and Wales had their wettest winter on record.

1951-1952
One of the warmest winters on record for Southeast Texas. It is warm throughout the US.

1972-1973
Houston had three 1 inch or higher snowfall on January 11, February 9-10, and February 17-18. It is Houston’s snowiest winter on record since 1895 when 20 inches of snow fell on February 14-15, 1895. New York City records the least amount of snow in winter on record of 2.80 inches. The winter is one of the coldest on record for Southeast Texas.

1997-1998
The world is gripped by an extremely strong El Nino. Western US had record rainfall, while Indonesia has a severe drought. It is one of Texas’s wettest winter on record.

2006-2007
Freezing rain on January 16-17, 2007. It is part of the much larger North American Ice Storm.

2009-2010
Houston records earliest 1 inch snowfall on December 4, 2009. Second snowfall on February 23, 2010. It is one of the coldest winter on record for Southeast Texas.

Does this mean 2018-2019 winter will be record cold like in 1972-1973 or 2009-2010 or warm like 1951-1952? Does this mean we will see a freezing cold or warm winter? Does this mean we will see many snowfall this winter? Not necessarily. It can go either way.

I think this winter could be a cold winter. I would not be surprised to hear of a major cold blast this coming winter or snow falls again. I could see major winter storms happening.

Hurricane Florence Trudges Along

Hurricane Florence is moving slowly towards North Carolina. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is moving at northwest at 6 mph 5.2 knots 9.7 km/h. It has winds of 90 mph 78 knots 145 km/h with gusts as high as 113 mph 98 knots 182 km/h. That makes Florence a Category 1 hurricane. It is a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 80 miles 70 nautical miles 129 kilometers, while tropical storm force winds extend up to 195 miles 170 nautical miles 314 kilometers. A large hurricane is very dangerous as they can produce large storm surge and waves.

Looking at the wind swath map, the entire Coastal North Carolina and parts of South Carolina are experiencing tropical storm force winds. Some areas in Coastal North Carolina are seeing hurricane force winds. If Florence makes landfall with 90 mph winds, the highest wind on land is going to be 77 mph 67 knots 124 km/h with gusts as high as 116 mph 101 knots 187 km/h. Many areas will likely see 50 to 70 mph 44 to 61 knots 80 to 113 km/h with gusts as high as 75 to 105 mph 65 to 91 knots 121 to 169 km/h. The biggest question is where does Florence go ultimately.

It is the latest forecast track from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance for Florence. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. It is more circular, which suggests that Florence could linger for the next several days over land. That is going to be very bad as winds, storm surge, waves, and heavy rain are going to persist. Storm surge is getting much high as Florence gets closer. The Neuse River at Oriental, North Carolina gauge is setting high water of nearly 9 feet/2.7 meters!

It is only getting higher. I would not be surprised to see storm surge approaching 20 feet/6.1 meters or higher. Storm surge is very dangerous. That is why people evacuate from water and hide from the wind. To make matters worse, heavy rain is falling. Heavy rain leads to flooding, which kills like storm surge. It is very destructive. Case in point, Harvey. Let’s take a look at the rainfall total forecast. They are from EURO, GFS, Canadian, and German (ICON). The forecast models are from Weather.US. They are all seven day rainfall total forecast.

The forecast models have 29 to 38 inches/73.7 centimeters to 96.5 centimeters of rain. GFS has the lowest, while EURO has the highest. The NHC is forecasting 40 inches/101.6 centimeters of rain of rain. I would not be surprised if some areas see 50 inches/127 centimeters of rain. Some areas have gotten over 12 inches/30.5 centimeters of rain already! 50 inches does not sound so off.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Florence is making landfall somewhere in North Carolina.
-Landfall time is looking to be Friday morning.
-Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain will be the main problem from Florence.
-Main headline for Florence will likely be massive flooding.
-Record rainfall is likely with Florence.

It is going to be a long night for North Carolina with Florence. It is going to be one brutal hurricane for them.

Furious Florence And Future Kirk?

Hurricane Florence is getting ever so closer to the Southeastern US. Subtropical Storm Joyce recently formed in the Eastern Atlantic. We now have Florence, Helene, Isaac, and Joyce. Invest 95L could become Kirk. If Kirk forms, we would have five storms at once. Before I talk about the latest, ten years ago today, Hurricane Ike was getting closer to the Texas Coast as a large Category 2 hurricane. I will focus on Florence and Invest 95L as they are closest to land.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Florence with 110 mph 96 knots 177 km/h winds with gusts as high as 138 mph 120 knots 222 km/h. It has central pressure of 957 millibars. Just because Florence is no longer a major hurricane does not make it any less dangerous. In some ways, it is more dangerous as it gets larger. People might think that Florence is no longer dangerous as it is no longer a major hurricane. It has hurricane force winds extending up to 80 miles 70 nautical miles 129 kilometers and tropical storm force winds extending up to 195 miles 170 nautical miles 314 kilometers. Hurricane that go further north, tend to get larger. I think Florence could have hurricane force winds extending up to 125 miles 109 nautical miles 201 kilometers and tropical storm force winds extending up to 250 miles 217 nautical miles 402 kilometers before landfall.

Here is the latest forecast track from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance for Florence and Invest 95L. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I have included Ensemble Prediction Systems generated from a previous forecast cycle along with the latest.

The heat map for Florence is getting more circular, which is concerning. Florence could make landfall somewhere in South Carolina or North Carolina. It suggests that Florence is going to slow down after it makes landfall. It looks to linger over the area after landfall. As for landfall time, Florence is probably going to make landfall sometimes on Friday morning. The slower motion of Florence is lower confidence because forecast models cannot predict where Florence will go. In regards to Invest 95L, it looks to be making landfall on South Texas sometimes on Friday. Too early to tell for this one at this time. Since Florence is getting larger and forecasted to slow down, storm surge is going to be a serious problem.

Some areas could see easily 15 feet/4.6 meters storm surge. I would not be surprised if some areas see over 20 feet/6.1 meters storm surge. If anyone is in a storm surge area, they need to evacuate. Storm surge kills! Most people die from storm surge in hurricanes and tropical cyclones. The deadliest tropical cyclone known is the 1970 Bhola Cyclone, which claimed 1.1 million people in present day Bangladesh, then East Pakistan on November 12, 1970. The tropical cyclone produced up to 33 feet/10 meters storm surge on the Ganges Delta. Most of the death were from deadly storm surge and epidemic following the tropical cyclone. Proof that storm surge kills. It also does not have to be a strong major hurricane to produce deadly and monsterous storm surge. Ike and Sandy produce high storm surge despite not being major hurricanes. They produced deadly storm surge because they were large storms and the geography is more conducive to deadly storm surge, which is also the case for Coastal Bangladesh. As Florence getting closer and water rising, many are asking how strong will Florence be.

Most intensity forecast models for Florence show it will be maintaining Category 2. One has it re-intensifying into Category 3 hurricane. I would not be srurprised if Florence does intensify into a Category 3 before landfall. As for Invest 95L, a couple forecast models have it intensifying into a tropical storm. I would not be surprised if 95L becomes Kirk by Thursday.

Rainfall is another concern, especially for Florence. They are from EURO, GFS, Canadian, and German (ICON). The forecast models are from Weather.US. They are all seven day rainfall total forecast.

The EURO has nearly 40 inches/101.6 centimeters of rain. The GFS has 33 inches/83.8 centimeters of rain. The Canadian has nearly 22 inches/55.9 centimeters of rain. The ICON has 28 inches/71.2 centimeters of rain. The EURO has the heaviest rainfall forecast. Previously, the GFS had some high rainfall forecast totals as high as 77 inches/195.6 centimeters in 7 days! The National Hurricane Center forecasts rainfall on par with Mitch and Harvey. They forecasted over 40 inches/101.6 centimeters of rain. That is very chilling to read that. Not often you see that for sure. I would not be surprised if some areas get over 50 inches of rain once it is all over.

The rainfall forecast for Invest 95L is not as high as it has been previously. The EURO has 6 inches/15.2 centimeters of rain. The GFS has 5 inches/12.7 centimeters of rain. The Canadian has nearly 7 inches/17.8 centimeters of rain. The ICON has over 10 inches/25.4 centimeters of rain. The forecast models are all over the place for Invest 95L. The forecast models assume that 95L does not become Kirk. If it became Kirk, I suspect the forecast models are going to change.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Florence could intensify into a Category 3 hurricane.
-Florence is looking to affect South Carolina and North Carolina the most.
-Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain will be the main problem from Florence.
-Main headline for Florence will likely be massive flooding.
-Invest 95L is likely to become Kirk by Thursday.

Furious Florence And Future Joyce?

The tropics are heating up and it is very concerning. Before I look at the tropics, let’s take a moment to reflect what happened on this day. Seventeen years ago today, America was attacked on September 11, 2001. Four airplanes hijacked by Al-Qaeda terrorists flew them into the World Trade Center and Pentagon. A fourth hijacked airplane crashed near Shanksville. Nearly 3,000 people were killed on that tragic day. Many more have become ill and some have died from toxic dust and smoke exposure from the World Trade Center and Pentagon.

Currently, there is Florence and Invest 95L, which maybe Joyce. Florence has 140 mph 122 knots 225 km/h winds with gusts as high as 175 mph 152 knots 282 km/h. It has central pressure of 946 millibars. Florence is a large hurricane and getting larger. It has hurricane force winds extending up to 60 miles 52 nautical miles 97 kilometers and tropical storm force winds extending up to 175 miles 152 nautical miles 282 kilometers. I would not be surprised if Florence is a large hurricane as it gets closer to the US. Hurricane that go further north, tend to get larger.

Here is the latest forecast track from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

For Florence, it is looking more likely to hit either North Carolina or South Carolina. One forecast model has Florence going back to the Atlantic. It is looking more and more that Florence is going to hit North Carolina or South Carolina. The circular pattern over North Carolina is concerning because Florence may stall out. That means that heavy rain and flooding is more likely for North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. The most concerning part is that near the center at night. There could core rain near the center of the low pressure. Core rains dump very heavy rain over a short time at night. Examples of core rain are 1921 Thrall Flood, Camille (1969), Claudette (1979), and Allison (2001).

For Invest 95L, it is looking to hit Texas sometimes this week. One forecast model has it going to Louisiana. It is rather early to tell as it has not developed yet. Regardless if 95L develops or not, heavy rain will be the main problem for Texas. Texas has been getting heavy rain lately, especially along the Upper Texas Coast. The next question is how strong will Florence and 95L be.

Most intensity forecast models keep Florence as a Category 4 hurricane. One has Florence as a Category 5 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Florence becomes a Category 5 hurricane. Most intensity forecast keep Florence as a major hurricane up to landfall.

As for Invest 95L, most forecast models have it intensifying into a tropical storm, especially within a couple of days from now. Since 95L is forecasted to go over the Gulf Of Mexico, I would not be surprised if it becomes a hurricane. Texas has seen tropical storms rapidly intensify into hurricanes like the Freeport Hurricane (1932), Humberto (2007), and Harvey (2017). I am not suggest 95L will become a hurricane, but just pointing out hurricane history is not too kind to Texas.

Rainfall is another concern. They are from EURO, GFS, Canadian, and German (ICON). The forecast models are from Weather.US. They are all seven day rainfall total forecast.

The EURO has 45 inches/114.3 centimeters of rain. The GFS has 62 inches/157.5 centimeters of rain! It is lower, but still very high! North Carolina has 15 to 25 inches/38.1 centimeters to 63.5 centimeters of rain, which is still heavy. The Canadian has 25 inches/63.5 centimeters of rain. Like the GFS, it is over the ocean. The ICON has 41 inches/104.4 centimeters of rain. The trend with these forecast models is heavier. The EURO have heaviest rain along the coast. The GFS has the heaviest rain offshore with heaviest over land in Coastal South Carolina and North Carolina. The Canadian has the heaviest rain over North Carolina and Virginia. The ICON has the heaviest rain along Coastal North Carolina and Virginia. The heavy rain is very concerning and can lead to massive flooding similar to Harvey.

Invest 95L rainfall forecast is all over the place. The EURO has over 9 inches/22.9 centimeters of rain northeast of Corpus Christi. The GFS has 5 inches/12.7 centimeters south of Houston. The Canadian has nearly 7 inches/17.8 centimeters of rain along the Central Coast of Texas. The ICON has over 11 inches/27.9 centimeters of rain south of Houston. The rainfall forecast is all over the place for 95L. When 95L gets closer, the forecast model should be more confident on rainfall amount and where it may fall.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Florence could intensify into a Category 5 hurricane.
-Florence is looking to affect North Carolina the most.
-Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain will be the main problem from Florence.
-Invest 95L is likely to become Joyce later this week.
-Texas could see more heavy rain and possibly flooding from Invest 95L or Joyce.