Tropical Storm Cindy For 6/21/2017 2200 CDT

Tropical Storm Cindy is getting closer to land. The latest position from National Hurricane Center is 95 miles or 153 kilometers from Port Arthur, Texas as of 10:00 PM or 2200 CDT. Here is the latest Doppler radar image out of NWS Lake Charles.

It is moving 7 mph or 11 kilometers north-northwest. Cindy could make landfall between 3:00 AM to 5:00 AM or 0300 to 0500 CDT at this rate. The question is where Cindy will make landfall.

The data is from UCAR, to be more specific from ATCF data file. I also included the 5 day cone from National Hurricane Center.Looks to make landfall in East Texas our Southwest Louisiana. Still cannot rule a landfall closer to Houston at this time as tropical cyclones tend to wobble. The area around the center of Cindy has produced heavy rain.

Many areas have seen 1 to 2 inches or 2.54 to 5.08 centimeters of rain per hour. Doppler radar estimates the heaviest rainfall rate is 4 inches or 10.16 centimeters per hour! Some areas could see as much as 5 inch or 12.7 centimeters per hour!

Many areas have seen 3 to 6 inches or 7.62 to 15.24 centimeters of rain based on Doppler radar estimates. The highest is 11 inches or 27.94 centimeters of rain. Again, Doppler radar tends to underestimate rainfall totals. I suspect the highest rainfall total is around 12 to 14 inches or 30.48 to 35.56 centimeters of of rain. I think Houston area could see rain from Cindy, especially later tonight. Rainfall total should be about 1 to 3 inches or 2.54 to 7.62 centimeters with amount as high as 5 inches or 12.7 centimeters of rain. I would not be surprised if thunderstorms form on the west side of Cindy and dumps heavy rain over the Houston area while you sleep.

Once Cindy makes landfall, where does it go? Could it stall out over Texas and dump more heavy rain like Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 did? Or could it just move away from Texas? Here is the next 5 day forecast model.

The cone and heat map has Cindy moving towards Arkansas. No forecast model has Cindy stalling over Texas. It can be possible that Cindy will stall over Texas, but that is unlikely at this point. The forecast models are divided where Cindy will go once inland. It can go to the Midwest and Canada or go all the way to the East Coast. Right now, we should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cindy as it is getting closer to land.

Tropical Storm Cindy For 6/20/2017 2200 CDT

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 is now Tropical Storm Cindy. Well, I think, it was Cindy since yesterday. Anyways, let’s cut to the chase. As of 10:00 PM CDT, Cindy is stationary. It has not moved much lately. This complicates forecasting where Cindy will go.

Here is a heat map forecast. It is from ATCF data file. The intensity forecast is also from the same link at UCAR. I also included the 5 day cone from National Hurricane Center.

The heat map is from various ensemble member run within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point. From there, a heat map is generated. There is an eastward trend. However, Texas is not out of any landfall risk. The 5 day cone encompass Southeast Texas. The National Hurricane Center states that tropical cyclones are within the cone 67 percent of the time, which means 33 percent of the time they deviate outside the cone. The heat map shows that it can deviate easily from the cone.

In terms of intensity it has increased to 60 mph with central pressure of 997 millibars. The forecast models keep Cindy as a tropical storm. I do not expect a hurricane. The intensity forecast is from

On top of it, Tropical Storm Cindy is a large tropical storm. It has tropical storm force winds extending up to 275 miles! The western half has tropical storm force winds extending up to 140 miles. Tropical storm force winds are 415 miles across! The east side has larger tropical storm force winds.

The main concern is rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has a seven day total of up to 17 inches around Alabama. Southeast Texas could see to 3 to 7 inches of rain. I would not be surprised if areas see higher totals of 20 inches in some areas. Tropical Storm Cindy is more of a rain event if any. I would be most concerned with heavy rain than wind despite the large area of tropical storm force wind.

Where Cindy goes is anyone’s guess at this point. Forecast models are all over the place. We should know more by tomorrow.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 For 6/19/2017 2100 CDT

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, which in my opinion should be named as Cindy as Bret is already taken and traversing across South America. A Bret once paid a visit to South Texas as a Category 3 hurricane on August 22, 1999. A Cindy also paid a visit to Southeast Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on September 17, 1963. Cindy was a rainmaker as it dumped nearly 24 inches of rain (61 centimeters) of rain in Deweyville, Texas. Just in 24 hours, 20.60 inches (52.3 centimeters) fell!

Here is a heat map forecast. It is from from , to be more specific from ATCF data file. The intensity forecast is also from the same link at UCAR.

spite the forecast models having go towards Louisiana.

In terms of intensity, it is already a tropical storm.

Most intensity forecast models keep it as a tropical storm. None have Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 as a hurricane at this time. I do not think it will be a hurricane at this time. It will be a messy tropical storm. Most of the heavy rain is east of the center. Even if Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 made landfall over Galveston, most of the rain would be east. If Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 made landfall around Matagorda County, Houston area could get some heavy rain.

Depending on where Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 goes, Southeast Texas could see tropical storm force winds as early as Tuesday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center-Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 I would not be surprised if it is breezy by tomorrow afternoon.

The forecast is subject to change for Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, so please keep an eye on the weather.

April 2017 Hurricane Season Forecast

It is almost this time of year. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2017. Last year was quite an active hurricane season with Matthew, Nicole and Otto. Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the Northeast Atlantic.

Colorado State University
11/4/2 ACE: 75

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10 to 12 Storms/4 to 6 Hurricanes/1 to 2 Major Hurricanes ACE: 75 to 95

Tropical Storm Risk
11/4/2 ACE: 67

Accuweather
10/5/3

The Weather Channel
12/6/2

The analog years I am using are in which previous winter is La Nina or Neutral and second year after El Nino. The forecast is uncertain is El Nino will develop later in 2017 despite the water showing warming in the Equatorial Pacific, especially off the coast of South America.

2017
2015-2016 El Nino
2016-2017 La Nina
2017/2017-2018 El Nino/Neutral?

Based on this, the analog years are 1901, 1913, 1972, 1989, 2004, 2006, and 2009. They happened two years after El Nino and came off of a La Nina. Of course, there are other factors in play besides El Nino. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), Southern Ocean/Roaring Forties, and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR).

Analog Years For 2017 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1901 13/6/0 99 7.6
1972 7/3/0 36 5.1
1989 11/7/2 135 12.3
2004 15/9/6 227 15.1
2006 10/5/2 79 7.9
2009 9/3/2 53 5.9

So, what affect did those analog seasons have?
1901
Tropical Storm #2 made landfall on Matagorda, Texas on July 10, 1901 with 50 mph winds. This comes 10 months after the devastating Galveston Hurricane on September 8-9, 1900, which claimed 12,000 lives.

Hurricane #4 is known as the 1901 Louisiana Hurricane. The hurricane formed southwest of Azores on August 2, 1901. It traversed the Atlantic before making landfall on Florida on August 11, 1901. It emerges into the Gulf of Mexico and intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane due to the Loop Current on August 12, 1901. The hurricane makes landfall on Buras, Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph wind and that makes a second landfall on Ocean Springs, Mississippi on August 15, 1901. Buras reports 4 feet of water, while New Orleans sees the Mississippi River rise by 7 feet. Up to 15 people are known to have died and inflicted $1 million of damages.

1972
1972 was a largely quiet season, but will be most remembered for Hurricane Agnes. It was a hurricane of non-tropical origin that formed over Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico on June 14, 1972. The tropical depression exits Yucatan into the Yucatan Channel. Agnes brushes Western Cuba as it heads towards Gulf of Mexico. Agnes becomes a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on June 18, 1972 as it is moving northwards towards Florida. Agnes weakens slightly as it makes landfall on Cape San Blas, Florida as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph, but likely a tropical storm as there was no sustained hurricane force winds reported. Agnes produced 7 foot storm surge and heavy rain in Florida. There is also a tornado outbreak in Florida from Agnes, which claimed 7 lives. A total of 9 people died in Florida from Agnes. Agnes is responsible for the deadliest tornado outbreak from a tropical cyclone. Agnes continues to weaken as it moves further inland. Agnes goes over the Atlantic on June 22, 1972 as a tropical storm, which developed over North Carolina. Agnes intensifies into a 70 mph tropical storm and makes landfall in Suffolk County east of New York City on June 22, 1972 with 65 mph winds. Once inland, Agnes becomes an extratropical storm. From there, Agnes starts dumping heavy rain throughout a large area of the Northeast from June 23 to 25, 1972. Many areas see 10 to 15 inches of rain including 19 inches of rain in Pennsylvia. Some areas likely saw higher amounts of rain. Pennsylvania took the brunt of Agnes from the heavy rain and massive flooding. Many other states were hit hard from Virginia, Maryland, New York, Ohio, and West Virginia. At least 119 people died in America from flooding, including 50 in Pennsylvania. On top of it, Agnes did $2.1 billion in damages, the most at the time. Agnes was not a major hurricane and will be remembered as an epic flood event in the Northeast, particularly in Pennsylvania.

1989
Before 2001 Tropical Storm Allison, there was 1989 Tropical Storm Allison, which formed from remnant of East Pacific Hurricane Cosme. Cosme made landfall east of Acapulco as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Allison paid a visit to the Upper Texas Coast on June 27, 1989 with 50 mph wind. Many areas in Texas saw 10 to 20 inches of rain. Like 2001 Allison, 1989 Allison loops over Texas, which dumps heavy rain over Northern and Central Louisiana. Many areas saw 15 to 20 inches including 30 inches at Winnfield, Louisiana. Eleven people lost their life in Texas Louisiana, and Mississippi.

Hurricane Chantal is the first hurricane to strike the Upper Texas Coast in 1989. Chantal is a small hurricane that made landfall on High Island, Texas on August 1, 1989 as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds and central pressure of 984 millibars. The highest winds is 70 mph with gusts as high as 105 mph. Many areas see 50 to 65 mph winds. Chantal produced three feet storm surge at Galveston. An area from Southern Harris County, Fort Bend, and Galveston County saw 8 to 12 inches of rain with amounts as high as 20 inches in Friendswood. One interesting aspect is that the “dirty” side of Chantal was on the southwest side of the hurricane, which produced most of the heavy rain. Thirteen people die, including 11 offshore.

Hurricane Hugo is the most intense hurricane of 1989, which peaked at 160 mph and central pressure of 918 millibars. Hugo was a Cape Verde storm as it formed from a tropical wave that came off of West Africa on September 9, 1989. Hugo became a tropical depression once the tropical wave left Africa. Hugo undergoes rapid intensification over the Atlantic. Hugo first encounter with land as it crosses between Guadeloupe and Montserrat on September 17, 1989 as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Gusts are as high as 210 mph! Guadeloupe is ravaged by strong winds and 8 feet storm surge as many homes are destroyed on top of 10 lives lost. A gust of 184 mph is recorded from a French research ship. Montserrat is ravaged by 20 feet storm surge as almost every house is damaged! Almost everyone are left homeless as a result. 21 people die in Montserrat. Hugo than makes its first landfall on St. Croix. A slowing Hugo puts St. Croix under prolonged hurricane force winds as high wave pelt the island. 90 percent of buildings are leveled and the infrastructure is destroyed by Hugo. The damage is a staggering $1 billion for St. Croix. Later that day, Hugo makes landfall on Vieques and Fajardo, Puerto Rico as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The highest sustained winds are 102 mph with gusts as high as 153 mph. Hugo ravages eastern Puerto Rico and decimates the crops. Hugo goes northward as a Category 2 hurricane. Hugo undergoes intensification to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph and central pressure of 944 millibars. Hugo is heading towards America. On the night of September 21, 1989, Hugo makes landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph and central pressure of 934 millibars. The highest wind is 119 mph with gusts of 179 mph! Many areas see 80 to 120 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 180 mph. Hugo produces monster storm surge in the Charleston area due to its large size. Twenty feet storm surge are reported as it floods the coastal area. The fast motion of Hugo does not lead to massive flooding. 35 people lost their life in America and costliest hurricane at the time prior to Andrew in 1992.

Hurricane Jerry is the second hurricane to hit the Upper Texas Coast in 1989. It formed in the Bay of Campeche on October 12, 1989. Jerry became a Category 1 hurricane on October 15, 1989. As Jerry approaches the Upper Texas Coast, it continues to intensify. By the time it is getting closer to the Upper Texas Coast on October 16, 1989, it has 85 mph winds. Later that day, Jerry makes landfall on Jamaica Beach. Galveston sees 75 mph winds with gusts as high as 100 mph. The storm surge destroys a section of State Highway 87. Houston does not feel much impact from Jerry due to it small size. Many areas saw 2 to 4 inches with highest amount of over 6 inches in Silsbee. Three people died from Jerry all in Galveston as they were driving on the Galveston Sea Wall.

2004
Hurricane Charley is first of the four hurricanes to ravage Florida in the 2004 season. Charley formed over Barbados on August 9, 2004. Two days later, Charley becomes a hurricane south of Jamaica. As Charley heads towards Cayman, intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane and continues to intensify into Category 3 as it heads closer to Cuba. Charley makes landfall close to Punta Cayamas with 120 mph. The highest winds is 120 mph with gusts of 180 mph over Cuba. Over 13 feet storm is measured in Cuba. Charley continues traverses over Cuba and is west of Havana. Charley emerges from Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph and its first landfall on Florida is Dry Tortuga. A cold front is steering Charley towards Southwest Florida. Forecast models have Charley hitting Tampa Bay as a Category 3 hurricane. As it gets closer to the mainland, Charley undergoes rapid intensification into a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and 941 millibars. Charley first struck Cayo Costa and than Punta Gorda as a Category 4 hurricane. Charley produce up to 13 feet storm surge in Florida. The highest sustain winds is 128 mph with gusts of 192 mph! The highest measure gust is 172 mph out of Charlotte Regional Medical Center which was before anemometer failed. Charley travels along Interstate 4 and ravages Orlando as a Category 1 hurricane. Many areas see 5 to 8 inches of rain from Charley. Charley emerges into the Atlantic as a Category 1 hurricane. Than it makes landfall Cape Romain and North Myrtle Beach as a Category 1 hurricane. The highest wind is 63 mph with gusts of 96 mph. Charley is the first hurricane to hit South Carolina since Hugo in 1989. Charley dumps 3 to 7 inches of rain and produces 4 to 6 feet storm surge. Once Charley is gone, it claims 15 lives, mostly in Florida. There are 20 indirect deaths, which brings total to 35. Charley also does $16.3 billion in damages.

As Florida is recovering from Hurricane Charley, another storm forms off the Cape Verde Islands, Frances. Frances forms off the Cape Verde on August 24, 2004 and becomes a tropical storm the next day. Frances gains intensity is it traverses over the Atlantic, it undergoes rapid intensification and becomes a hurricane on August 26. Frances intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Frances undergoes eyewall replacement cycle, causing it to weaken to Category 3 hurricane. AS Frances travels westward and intensifies into a Category 4 with 145 mph winds on September 2, 2004 as it begins to ravage Bahama. Frances weakens into a Category 3 hurricane due to wind shear as it is over Bahamas. Frances maintains Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph as it gets closer to Florida. Frances is a large hurricane with a large eye. To make matters worse, France is moving slowly as it gets closer to Florida. Frances makes landfall on Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds on September 5, 2004. Frances ravages Florida with strong winds and heavy rain. Many areas in Florida see 10 to 20 inches of rain, which leads to flooding. As Frances is leaving Florida, it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall on Aucilla River, Florida as a tropical storm. As Frances weakens, it becomes a huge rainmaker for the Southeast. The Appalachian Mountains draw more moisture out of the storm leading the heavy rain. Many areas in North Carolina see over 20 inches of rain including nearly 24 inches of rain in Mount Mitchell. The flooding causes Asheville to have no water for several days. There are 7 people killed and 43 indirect deaths, which brings the total of 50.

If things got worse, it does, as a tropical wave emerges from Africa on August 31, 2004, which becomes a tropical depression on September 2, 2004. The next day it is Tropical Storm Ivan. Ivan is a tropical storm for two days and on September 5, 2004, it becomes a hurricane and rapidly intensifies into a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Ivan first hits Granada as a Category 3 hurricane. Many areas see 80 to 100 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 150 mph. Ivan unleashes devastating winds and destroys numerous buildings including a prison, which allows prisoners to escape causing more trouble. Most of the island is leveled by Ivan as it claims 39 lives. Ivan enters the Caribbean and rapidly intensifies into a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph. Ivan comes approaches Jamaica on September 11, 2004 and pelts the nation with hurricane force wind and heavy rain. 17,000 people are left homeless from flooding and strong winds of Ivan. Ivan dumped heavy rain on Jamaica as much as 28 inches of rain! It is very likely the amount are higher. 17 people died in Jamaica. As Ivan moves away from Jamaica, it re-intensifies into a Category 5 hurricane. As Ivan comes closer to Grand Cayman, Ivan peaks at 165 mph and central pressure of 910 millibars. Ivan is the tenth most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic as of 2017. The strong winds of Ivan damage many buildings despite strict building codes. Grand Cayman has winds of 157 mph with gusts as high as 236 mph! Ivan goes between Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba as a Category 5 hurricane. Cuba is being ravaged by full force Category 5 winds and heavy rain. Despite it, there are no reports of casualties in Cuba from Ivan. Ivan enters the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane and maintains it. As Ivan inches closer to the Gulf Coast, people are order to evacuate. The Superdome in New Orleans becomes a “shelter of last resort”, which had been used with Hurricane Georges in 1998. Many evacuate New Orleans as it most of the city is below sea level and would be very vulnerable to storm surge. However, Ivan goes east of New Orleans and makes landfall on Gulf Shore, Alabama as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds in the small hours of September 16, 2004. Alabama and Florida are hammered by strong winds of 80 to 100 mph with gusts of 120 to 150 mph on top of 15 foot storm surge. Ivan spawned numerous tornadoes, a total of 117, which is the most from a hurricane. On top of it, there is heavy rain of 10 to 15 inches as causes widespread flooding. Ivan moves further inland and weakens into a tropical storm. Appalachian Mountains are getting more heavy rain as it has been flooded by Hurricane Frances several weeks earlier. Part of Ivan break away and moves eastward back into the Atlantic and loops towards Florida. That piece of Ivan enters the Gulf of Mexico and begins to reorganize. By the time it is near Texas/Louisiana, Ivan becomes a tropical depression and tropical storm on September 22, 2004. Ivan makes landfall on Holly Beach, Louisiana as a tropical depression. Some areas in Louisiana and Texas had up to 8 inches of rain. Ivan claimed 92 lives and including 32 indirect deaths, which brings the total to 124 lives.

As Ivan is entering the Gulf of Mexico, a tropical depression develops east of Guadaloupe on September 13, 2004, which made landfall on the island nation. Many areas in Guadaloupe see 8 to 12 inches of rain. The next day it becomes Tropical Storm Jeanne as moves westward towards the Virgin Islands. On September 15, 2004, Jeanne makes landfall on Yabucoa, Puerto Rico as a tropical storm and travels over the island. Many areas see 5 to 10 inches of rain with the highest amount of nearly 24 inches in Vieques. Eight people have died from Jeanne in Puerto Rico. Jeanne exits Puerto Rico and becomes a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds before it makes landfall on the eastern tip of Dominican Republic September 16, 2004. Jeanne traverses on the north side of Hispanola and weakening due to interaction with the mountains. Despite weakening, Jeanne is dumping heavy rain over Haiti and Dominican Republic for 30 hours. The prolonged heavy rain triggers widespread flooding and deadly mudslide in Haiti and Dominican Republic. The highest reported total is 13 inches with totals possibly going as much as 40 inches of rain in the mountains. The coastal city of Gonaives is hardest hit by flooding from Jeanne. At least 2,900 people are known to have died in the city. Throughout Haiti, at least 3,000 people have died from Jeanne. In Dominican Republic, 18 people have died from Jeanne from deadly flooding. Jeanne is now a tropical depression as it exits Hispanola on September 17, 2004. Jeanne lingers east of Bahamas and becomes a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on September 20, 2004. Jeanne loops around the Atlantic as a hurricane and moves westward towards the Bahamas. Jeanne continues to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph as it hits Abaco Island, Bahamas on September 25, 2004. Jeanne continues westward towards hurricane ravaged Florida. On the night of September 25, 2004, Jeanne makes landfall just two miles away from where Frances made landfall on Hutchinson Island as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds and 950 millibars, which is the peak of Jeanne. Jeanne produces 6 foot storm surge in Florida. Many areas see 60 to 90 mph winds with gusts of 90 to 135 mph. Many areas see 5 to 8 inches of rain with totals as high as nearly 13 inches of rain. Jeanne weakens as it is over Florida and moves northward dumping heavy rain throughout the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region. It is unclear how much of the damage is from Charley, Frances or Jeanne. Regardless, Jeanne did a total of $7.66 billion in damages. Jeanne claims over 3,000 lives and exceeds Katrina and Stan in 2005. Jeanne is the deadliest hurricane of the 2000s.

2006
Tropical Storm Alberto formed between Cuba and Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The storm peaks at 70 mph west of Tampa Bay on June 12, 2006 over the Loop Current. Alberto makes landfall on Taylor County, Florida on June 13, 2006 with 45 mph winds. Many areas in the Southeastern US see 3 to 7 inches of rain, which leads to flooding. Grand Cayman records up 22.72 inches of rain in 24 hours. Many areas in Cuba see 7 to 12 inches of rain, including 17.52 inches in Pinar del Rio province, Cuba. Two people died in Florida, and one died in North Carolina. Four sailors off the coast of Newfoundland Canada went missing when Alberto is an extratropical storm.

Hurricane Ernesto formed west of Grenada on August 24, 2006. It becomes a hurricane southwest of Haiti on August 27, 2006 with 75 mph winds. Ernesto weakens as it interacts with the mountains of Haiti and Dominican Republic. Ernesto brushes the western tip of Haiti on August 28, 2006 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Than Ernesto makes landfall near Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. Ernesto continues northwestward towards Cuba, first hitting Plantation Key, Florida, and than Miami-Dade County as a tropical storm. Ernesto traverses over Florida be emerging over the Atlantic, which intensifies to 70 mph and possibly a Category 1 hurricane. Ernesto makes landfall on Oak Island, North Carolina on August 31, 2006. Haiti sees up to 11 inches of rain and strong winds. Cuba sees rain amounts of 2 to 5 inches of rain with highest of 7.46 inches in Nuevitas, Camagüey. Florida sees 3 to 6 inches of rain with highest of 8.72 inches at South Golden Gate, Florida. The Carolina sees 4 to 8 inches of rain with 14.61 inches being the highest at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. Five people died in Haiti, while two died in Virginia when Ernesto is extratropical storm.

2009
Hurricane Bill is the most intense hurricane for 2009 as it was a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds and central pressure of 943 millibars. On August 22-23, 2009, the outerbands of Bill affect the Eastern Seaboard, particularly Massachusetts. Bill dumps heavy rain and produces numerous high waves on the East Coast. Hurricane Bill makes landfall on Point Rosie, Newfoundland as a 70 mph tropical storm. Many areas in Newfoundland and Canadian Maritime provinces experience strong winds and heavy rain. The coastal areas are pelted by high waves that a buoy recorded 87 feet waves!

Hurricane Ida was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds and central pressure of 975 millibars. However, it is better remembered as a powerful Nor’easter dubbed Nor’Ida. The storm would hammer the East Coast from November 11 to 17, 2009 with heavy rain and strong winds. The highest rainfall total is 18 inches of rain in Virginia. The storm also produce over 7 foot storm surge, which is on par with Hurricane Isabel in 2003.

Some of the analog seasons are inactive like 1972, but are very memorable. It shows it only takes just one to make a huge difference. Some are very active and deadly like 1989 and 2004. There were also Category 5 hurricanes in 1989 and 2004.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms.

The high risk areas are Cuba, Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Panhandle, South Florda, Carolinas, Bahamas, and Upper Texas Coast. However, when you look at the whole basin, everyone is at risk for landfall, which is why I never make landfall predictions. Everyone is at equal risk as I always say!

Analog
Mean
10.83/5.5/2.00
11/6/2 (Rounded Up)

Median
10.50/5.50/2.00
11/6/2 (Rounded Up)

Standard Deviation
2.86/2.35/2.19

ACE
Mean
104.83

Median
89

Standard Deviation
69.23

ACE/Storm
Mean
8.99

Median
7.76

Standard Deviation
3.90

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2016.

Mean
9.86/5.50/2.04
10/6/2

Median
9/5/2

Standard Deviation
4.21/2.61/1.66

ACE
Mean
92.18

Median
83

Standard Deviation
53.73

ACE/Storm
Mean
9.38

Median
8.67

Standard Deviation
4.04

The analog seasons are within standard deviation, which indicates this upcoming hurricane season is going to be within average.

What is my prediction for this season?
6 to 12 named storms, likely 10 named storms
3 to 8 hurricanes, likely 6 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 65 to 110 with ACE likely of 70 to 100

This excludes Arlene, which formed earlier in April, which would be 11 named storms. I do not think this season will be as active as last year. Of course, it only takes one to be bad like in 1972 with Agnes.

Let’s see how my April 2016 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2016 season.

7 to 13 named storms, likely 11 named storms
4 to 8 hurricanes, likely 6 hurricanes
2 to 4 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 90 to 150 with ACE likely of 100 to 130

2016 Actual Number
15 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
141 ACE

I was off with named storms. I was close with hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE. There is always room for improvement either way.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2017 could be an interesting hurricane season. It is the same Atlantic name list used in the devastating 2005 season, which produced Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Of course some of the names are not there with the exception of Emily.

2016-2017 Winter Forecast

Wow, time flies fast. Every year, time flies faster and it is almost Christmas. Winter is upon us again. Last winter we had a strong El Nino. This time around, we have Neutral conditions, neither La Nina or El Nino. Usually when there is a strong El Nino, La Nina follow. Not this time around. Other factors to consider are Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Roaring Forties, Equatorial Indian Ocean, and Tropical South Atlantic. However, since this El Nino is large and strong and has significant impact, it will weigh in more than other factors listed. Since, we have a strong El Nino, here are my analog winters. Here are the analog winters I came up with.

1878-1879
1897-1898
1900-1901
1912-1913
1919-1920
1926-1927
1931-1932
1958-1959
1983-1984
2003-2004

I chose these winters because the previous winter was El Nino as they are mostly strong El Nino’s. Those analog had weak La Nina or Neutral. Here is a table I created to identify strongest analogs.

Year ENSO Strong AMO PDO NEPWP EIOI TSAI R40I Total
1878-1879 1 1   1 1   1 5
1897-1898 1 1 1 1       4
1900-1901 1 1 1 3
1912-1913 1 1
1919-1920 1 1
1926-1927 1 1 1 3
1931-1932 1 1 1 1       4
1958-1959 1 1 1 1 1 1   6
1983-1984 1   1 1 1 1 1 6
2003-2004   1 1 1 1 1 1 6

I look at seven ocean patterns based on November averages. The cutoff for further analysis is four. We can eliminate these winters.
1900-1901
1912-1913
1919-1920
1926-1927

The analogs I will be looking at are
1878-1879
1897-1898
1931-1932
1958-1959
1983-1984
2003-2004

Let’s start with the ever important temperature. All divisional temperatures and rainfall were plotted with NOAA/NCDC Climate Division data: Mapping and Analysis Web Tool. All maps were generated with 20th Century Reanalysis Monthly Composites.

2016-2017_analog_divisional_temperature_standardizedanomaly-strongest-analog

This is a climate division map of the Lower 48. It does not have 1878-1879. Most of America saw cooler than normal winter, especially in Utah and Colorado. It is also colder in Texas. This would suggest a cooler than normal winter for most of America. The exception is in the Southeast where it is either normal or slightly warmer. What effects does it have around the world?

2016-2017_analog_wintertemperatureanomaly_world-strongest-analog

This one has 1878-1879. Alaska, Kamchatka Peninsula, Southeast Asia, India, Central Asia, and Arctic look to be cooler than normal. The Eastern Tip of Russia, Southeast US, Northeast Canada, North Central Siberia, Sudan, and Chad are warmer than normal. If one is wondering what the winter of 1878-1879 was like, here it is.

djf-1878-1879_wintertemperatureanomaly

It was cooler winter for North America with the exception of Northeast Canada and Greenland. It was also cooler throughout Siberia and Arctic. The NWS New York City has data from 1869 from Central Park. The first one is Normals and Extremes Central Park, NY (1869 to Present) and Average Monthly & Annual Temperatures at Central Park. The winter of 1878-1879 was a cold one with an average of 29.2°F. The average winter temperature in New York City is 35.1°F, which is 6 degrees below normal. The NWS Chicago shows a cooler than normal winter in 1878-1879, but not super cold. The previous winter of 1877-1878 is the warmest on record. It remains the warmest winter to this day. Chicago’s warmest winters occur in El Nino winters. No surprise there as the jet stream goes further south than usual. All Columbus, Ohio Data has the worst winters and 1878-1879 is considered one of the worst winters for Columbus. This would suggest that 1878-1879 was a cold winter for America including Texas.

The reason for 1878-1879 winter to be cold is due to negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which is ridging over Northeast Canada and Greenland. A positive NAO and AO is troughing over Greenland and Northteast Canada.

djf-1878-1879_winter500mbgeopotentialanomalynh

What does the upper level look like in analog winters?

2016-2017winter500mbgeopotentialanomalynh-strongest-analog

There is ridging south of Iceland, South of Bering Sea, and North Central Siberia. There is troughing over Eastern Russia, off the Eastern Seaboard of US, and Western Canada. This would suggest that cold blasts will be from the NAO rather than East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). It shows that if EPO and WPO are positive, while NAO is negative, there can be cold blasts. Keep in mind, EPO, WPO, and NAO can change quickly.

Wonder what winter will be like in the rain department?

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From Texas to Maine, it looks to be wetter than normal. Same goes with part of the Midwest and Western US. California looks to be somewhat drier than normal. Again, this does not include 1878-1879, which I have included.

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Florida, California, Scandinavia, Iceland, Iran, Korea, Japan, and Western Canada were drier than normal in 1878-1879. It was very wet in Texas, Hawaii, Southwestern US, Caribbean, Spain, Portugal, France, Mediterranean region of Europe and Southwest Asia, and India in 1878-1879. Here is a worldwide map with the analogs.

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It is the same general areas that are wet and dry. Interestingly, Western Canada is wetter, while Southwest is drier in analog winters. Texas has an average rainfall in analog winters.

How were winters like in these analog years? Were there cold blasts? Cold events are either in America or Texas. Rankings are temperature average since 1895.

1878-1879
Many areas in Northern US experience colder than normal winters.
1878 was a cold year for Europe, especially for United Kingdom.
The previous winter of 1877-1878 was very warm. In fact it is known as the year without winter in 1877.

Ranking
N/A

1897-1898
Reports of sleet fell on December 3-4, 1897 in Houston.
Cold blasts hits Houston in early January 1898. A low of 27°F on January 2, 1898.

Ranking
America’s 58th coldest winter on record.
Texas’s 63rd coldest winter on record.
Upper Texas Coast’s 47th coldest winter on record.

1931-1932
Houston was struck by a cold blast in March. Snow fell on March 10-11, 1932 in Houston. It remains the latest measurable snowfall to fall in Houston. A low of 27°F occurred on March 9, 10, and 13, 1932.

Ranking
America’s 104th coldest winter on record.
Texas’s 87th coldest winter on record.
Upper Texas Coast’s 89th coldest winter on record.

1958-1959
A cold blasts hits Texas in early January 1959. A low of 21°F was recorded on January 4, 1959 in Houston. Another cold blasts hits two weeks later with low of 25°F on January 22, 2016.

Ranking
America’s 38th coldest winter on record.
Texas’s 24th coldest winter on record.
Upper Texas Coast’s 20th coldest winter on record.

1983-1984
December 1983 had a huge cold blasts that set many records throughout America. Many areas experienced their coldest Christmas on record.

Ranking
America’s 19th coldest winter on record.
Texas’s 8th coldest winter on record.
Upper Texas Coast’s 10th coldest winter on record.

2003-2004
Northeast US was hit by cold blasts in January 2004. Boston had their coldest January since 1893. Many areas saw over 100 inches of snow, especially in Northern New York.
Snow fell in San Antonio and Austin on Valentine’s Day 2004.

Ranking
America’s 78th coldest winter on record.
Texas’s 88th coldest winter on record.
Upper Texas Coast’s 51st coldest winter on record.

I am not suggesting we will see a cold blast on par with December 1983 or January 2004. It is possible this winter could see a cold blast. Interesting to note that 1958-1959 and 1983-1984 were cold winters for America and Texas.

I think this winter could be a cooler winter. I would not be surprised to hear of a major cold blast this coming winter. It should be an interesting one for sure.

Latest On Typhoon Haima As Of 10:00 PM CST October 19, 2016

Typhoon Haima made landfall as a Category 4 typhoon on Baguio Point in the Cagayan Province with 140 mph winds. The highest wind on land is 119 mph with gusts of 179 mph. The highest measured gust was 124 mph, which is no picnic. One weather station recorded 7 inches of rain in one hour! That would cause a flood for sure. 7 inches of rain in one hour has happened in Southeast Texas during Tropical Storm Allison on June 8-9, 2001. That resulted in 28 inches of rain in 12 hours! As of right now, Haima is a Category 2 typhoon with 110 mph winds. Haima is moving at 14 mph west northwest.

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Where, Typhoon Haima go next after it ravaged the Philippines? Most have Haima making landfall on the Southern China coast. Hong Kong and Macau are also at risk for landfall. That part of China is heavily populated. Everyone China should prepare for Haima as it can be a dangerous storm for them. Interestingly, some models have Haima lopping back towards the Philippines again, like Hurricane Matthew with Florida. That never happened by the way.

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How intense will Haima be by the time it is on China’s door step? Despite being a Category 2 typhoon, Haima is forecast to weaken. It could still maintain its intensity and get stronger. Intensity forecast is not an exact science. One factor is when Haima gets closer to China, it will draw in dry air, which can weaken Haima further. Most forecast have Haima making landfall as a Category 1 typhoon with 92 mph winds. That means most areas will see 50 to 75 mph winds with gusts of 75 to 85 mph.

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Haima is going to be more of a rain maker. Many areas could see 8 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals of 20 inches. Even if Haima makes landfall as a Category 1 typhoon, it should not be taken lightly. Heavy rain and flooding will be the main issue for China.

Latest On Typhoon Haima As Of 10:00 PM CST October 18, 2016

Super Typhoon Haima is now a Category 5 typhoon with 160 mph winds and central pressure of somewhere between 904 to 930 millibars. This is not measured directly. Hurricane force winds extend up to 60 miles, while tropical storm force winds extend up to 210 miles. It has grown as it has intensified. Where it does is very concerning. Haima is moving 16 mph to the west northwest. It looks to affect the Philippines in the next day.

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Looks to be making landfall on the Northern Philippines as a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds. The size forecast is also worrying. Haima is getting larger. By the time it is over the Philippines, hurricane force winds could extend up to 75 miles with tropical storm force winds extending up to 260 miles. Once it crosses over and weakens, but tropical storm force wind field gets larger.

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Once Haima passes Philippines, it is likely to weaken. The forecast models do not have Haima intensifying into a Category 3 storm once it passes Philippines. I think it has the potential to intensify into a Category 3 typhoon before it makes landfall on China.

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Another concerning aspect of Haima is heavy rain. Many areas could see 6 to 12 inches of rain. Mountainous areas could see 20 to 30 inches of rain. This can lead to deadly flooding on top heavy rain that has fallen from Typhoon Sarika. The heavy rain from Haima will make things worse. On top of the heavy rain and flooding, Philipines could likely see sustained winds of 80 to 120 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 180 mph! The highest sustained winds are in a small area and very few will experience it. The gusts is more dangerous as it can knock things over quickly! The Philippines better prepare for Haima. It will get very rough for them.