A Weakening Bud And Invest 91L

Oh how the mighty have fallen! Yesterday, Bud was a hurricane. Today it is a tropical storm with 50 mph 44 knots 80 km/h winds. It was once a formidable Category 3 hurricane. All the forecast models have Bud weakening.

With Bud running into cooler water and closer to land, it is most likely to weaken. The next important question is where Bud goes.

The forecast models are having Bud moving towards Baja California and the Southwestern US as a low pressure system. The moisture from Bud is certainly welcomed in the Southwest as they are very dry.

Almost the entire Four Corners is engulfed in a severe drought. It centers around where the Four Corners meet. There is also a severe drought in the Texas Panhandle region. Any rain is welcomed regardless. This leads to Invest 91L in the Caribbean. Many are asking where 91L will go.

Most of the forecast models have Invest 91L heading towards either Mexico or Deep South Texas. Some have it heading towards Southeast Texas. Regardless of where 91L goes, rain will be the main issue. Since Invest 91L is over an area of warm water, does it have a chance of developing?

Most forecast models have 91L at tropical wave or tropical depression. One has it as a tropical storm. Again, it is too early to tell if it will develop. Tropical waves or low pressure areas in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico can form suddenly into a tropical storm or even hurricane. It has happened many times in the past. I am not suggesting it will happen with 91L. It is something to consider.

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product does give Invest 91L a chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Again, that is only a small chance of developing.

Since, we are on the topic of tropical weather trouble, it brings rain. Various forecast models have different rain amounts, which are from GFS, Canadian, EURO, and Weather Prediction Center (WPC). They are from Weather.US and Weather Prediction Center (WPC)-Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF). These are 7 day rainfall totals.

The GFS has less rain for Texas and the Southwest. Southeast Texas has 2 to 4 inches of rain. The Southwest sees 0.50 to 2 inches of rain with 6 inches in the mountains.

The Canadian is not particularly generous for the Southwest. However for Southeast, Texas it has up to 8 inches of rain.

The EURO is generous for Southwest and Texas. The mountains of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado have up 8 inches of rain. Most of Arizona is wet as well compared to GFS and Canadian.

The WPC has 2 to 4 inches of rain over Southeast Texas. The Southwest has 0.50 to 1 inches of rain with isolated areas seeing 2 inches of rain.

The forecast models are unanimous on that rain will fall in Texas and the Southwest. They diverge on rain amount. Some forecast lesser amounts, while others forecast higher amounts. We should have a better idea of rain amounts later on.

My take on this. Invest 91L is more likely going to be a rain event. I do not expect 91L will develop at this point, but of course anything can happen. I do not think we will see another Harvey event from 91L. It is not forecasted to linger over Texas, like what Harvey or Allison did. As for Bud, the Southwestern US should welcome the rain with open arms. They will need it for sure.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. The GIS drought map is from United States Drought Monitor.

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Hurricane Bud And Invest 91L

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 11 OR_ABI-L1b-RadF-M3C11_G16_s20181640230401_e20181640241168_c20181640241232.nc

It is June and the tropics are heating up. We have two areas of interests, Hurricane Bud in the East Pacific and Invest 91L in the Caribbean. Let’s start with Bud.

Hurricane Bud was a powerful Category 3 hurricane that weakened into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph 85 knots 161 km/h winds. It is due to cooler water Bud is encountering. Cooler water tends to weaken hurricanes even if there is not a whole of wind shear.

The area of warm water in the East Pacific is not that great. However, two major hurricanes have formed so far, which are Aletta and Bud. East Pacific is one of the most active basins despite its small size. As Bud weakens, where does it go? Here is a heat map forecast for Bud.

Most forecast models have Bud heading towards Baja California later by the end of the week. Where it goes after looks to be heading towards the Southwest. They can certainly use the rainfall as they are in a severe drought. The next question is how strong will Bud be?

Most forecast models have Bud as a tropical storm with one as a Category 1 hurricane around the time it us close to Baja California. From there, it is forecasted to weaken to a tropical depression.

The next problem is closer to home, Invest 91L. It is located off the coast of Honduras in the Caribbean. It is right now just a tropical wave with a cluster of thunderstorms. Many are wondering where will 91L will go? Here is a heat map forecast for 91L.

Most of the forecast models have 91L heading towards the Western Gulf of Mexico. One has it heading towards Florida looping around. It is just one forecast model. The forecast models at this time are heading towards Texas. Since this is a tropical wave, the forecast model is subject to change. The $64,000 question is will 91L become a tropical storm or hurricane, which would be Beryl.

Most forecast models keep 91L at tropical depression. Only one has a tropical storm at this time. Intensity forecast models are unreliable, especially if nothing has developed yet. Some factors do favor development. Let’s look at the water around Invest 91L.

The depth of warm water in Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is great and over a large area. The heat potential is fairly high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Warm water is certainly a factor in tropical development, but not the only one.

Wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico is within average and looks to be trending downward. Less wind shear is more favorable for tropical development. If there is strong wind shear over warm water, tropical development is greatly reduced as they blow tops of thunderstorm clouds that forming into something tropical.

At this time, I do not think Invest 91L will develop. It looks to be more of a rainmaker. However, anything can change between now and the end of the week.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. The tropical heat came from A href=http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html>Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP). Wind shear map came from Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Is Here

Subtropical Storm Alberto formed earlier today, which was Invest 90L. It is clearly a subtropical storm based on satellite image.

A subtropical storm has thunderstorms away from the center, mostly to the east in the Northern Hemisphere or west in the Southern Hemisphere. They look more like extratropical cyclones than tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones have the most intense thunderstorms near the center.

Tropical storm force winds in Subtropical Storm Alberto are are up to 253 miles 407 kilometers 220 nautical miles across from northeast to southeast quadrant. The winds are east of the center. That is typical of a subtropical storm. The biggest question is where will Alberto go?

This is a heat map from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. The heat map is within 300 miles (480 kilometers) from the center. The forecast models have a consensus that Alberto will go somewhere between Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or Florida Panhandle. There is a small chance it go could deviate. The next question is how strong will Alberto be?

Most forecast model keeps Alberto as a tropical storm. However, one intensifies Alberto into a Category 1 to near Category 2 hurricane. I think Alberto will be a tropical storm at most. A hurricane is very remote at this time. I do not think Alberto will become a hurricane. It will more then likely become a full fledge tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. I would be more concerned of heavy rain and flooding from Alberto than wind.

Future Alberto Part 2?

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on Invest 90L. They think in the next 5 days it has a high chance of developing into something tropical.

Interestingly, the intensity forecast keep Invest 90L as a tropical depression. One has it as a tropical storm in 36 hours.

This is not the latest intensity forecast model. It should come out later tonight. The biggest question is where does Invest 90L go?

This is a heat map from data from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. The general consensus is it will linger over the Caribbean and possibly move into Mexico or Belize. From there, it goes north. The forecast models tend to congregate around Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. There is a small risk that Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas could get hit by Invest 90L. This is still a rather low confidence forecast of where future Alberto will probably go in the next 5 days.

I would not be surprised we see Tropical Storm Alberto this weekend. The question is where does it go. Everyone in the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on Invest 90L. It can go anywhere it wants.

Future Alberto?

The first Invest for the 2018 hurricane season has been tagged as Invest 90L. It is in the Caribbean off the coast of Belize. It is an area of low pressure that is producing a lot of heavy rain. The question is where does it go in the next 5 days.

This is a heat map from data from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It looks like a low confidence forecast as it is all over the place. Some forecast models have it heading towards Alabama. Some have it towards Texas or Florida. It is low confidence because no surface low has formed yet. If a surface low was to form, than we could have a better idea including intensity.

Most forecast models want to keep Invest 90L as a tropical depression. Some want to intensify it to a tropical storm. If 90L is to become a tropical storm, it would be Alberto. I consider the intensity forecast low confidence. Truth is, intensity forecasts are not high confidence for the most part. Forecasting intensity is difficult despite better forecasting technology. I think 90L could become Alberto. Here are my reasons.

Let’s start with the Gulf of Mexico water. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is greatest in the Caribbean, but not so in the Gulf of Mexico. It is May, so the Gulf of Mexico is not going to be this warm.

However, the depth of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico is fairly deep. If the water is very warm at the surface, but not so deep, then that can help weaken tropical cyclone development. If the water is warm, but not super warm, but deep, that is more favorable for tropical development. I would look at depth of warm water more so than surface temperature.

Another factor to look at is wind shear from Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product.

Wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico is below average. More wind shear tends to put a lid on tropical development. Less wind shear is more conducive to tropical development. A tropical wave over very warm and deep warm water with plenty of wind shear is less likely to develop. If it is over not so warm water with low wind shear, it is more conducive to develop into something tropical. Wind shear blows thunderstorm tops off, which inhibits tropical development.

I think Invest 90L could develop this weekend. It bears watching.

Tropical Depression 16 (Future Nate)

Tropical Depression 16 just formed. It could be Nate soon. It is October and it can be active. October has produce some very intense hurricanes like Great Hurricane Of 1780, 1924 Cuba Hurricane, Hattie, Opal, Mitch, Wilma, and Matthew. In fact some of the most intense tropical cyclones known have occurred in October like Tip, Patricia, Wilma, and 1999 Odisha Cyclone. They are the most intense tropical cyclones in their basin in the Northern Hemisphere! Here is the heat map forecast from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Tropical Depression 16. The heat map is from within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point.

Most of the forecast models suggest that Tropical Depression 16 may go over Central America and then go over the Caribbean. From there, it enters the Gulf of Mexico. This is what concerns me.

The Northwest Caribbean off the coast of Belize and Yucatan Peninsula is very warm. If conditions are right in the atmosphere, Tropical Depression 16 or future Nate could undergo rapid intensification. Warm water is not the only factor that allows hurricanes to rapidly intensify. If the upper air is favorable like more humidity and less wind shear combined with warm water, it could allow rapid intensification. This is the same area where Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Here is the intensity forecast.

Only one forecast model has future Nate as a major hurricane. Forecasting strength and intensity is notoriously difficult. I would not be surprised if Tropical Depression 16 or future Nate becomes a major hurricane.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Nate will form as early as Thursday.
-Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico needs to watch.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential. Special thanks to all of them.

Puerto Rico In Trouble

Hurricane Maria is a very dangerous Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph 280 km/h 152 knots. It has a central pressure of 909 millibars (mb). This is more intense than Hurricane Irma in terms of central pressure. Maria is now the top 10 most intense Atlantic hurricane known. I mean known as records go back to 1851.

Top 10 Most Intense Hurricane By Central Pressure
1.) Wilma 2005 882 mb
2.) Gilbert 1988 888mb
3.) Labor Day 1935 892 mb
4.) Rita 2005 895 mb
5.) Allen 1980 899 mb
6.) Camille 1969 900 mb
7.) Katrina 2005 902 mb
8.) Mitch 1998/Dean 2007 905 mb
9.) Maria 2017 909 mb
10.) Cuba 1932/Ivan 2004 910 mb

Wilma is the most intense hurricane to date. It ravaged Yucatan Peninsula and Florida. Gilbert and Rita caused a huge scare for Texas. Gilbert hit Jamaica, Yucatan Peninsula, and Mexico’s Gulf Coast. Rita hit east of Houston area in East Texas and Southwest Louisiana. Labor Day 1935 Hurricane likely had low central pressure. Allen made landfall on South Texas. Camille and Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast in the same area. Katrina was larger as it produced higher storm surge in Mississippi and flooded out New Orleans. Mitch killed 22,000 from heavy rain and massive flooding in Central America. Mitch is the deadliest hurricane after the Great Hurricane of 1780, which claimed 30,000 lives. Dean hit Yucatan Peninsula and Mexico. Cuba 1932 is Cuba’s deadliest hurricane to this day. Ivan ravaged the the Caribbean before making landfall on Alabama and Florida. Ivan came back again and made landfall as a tropical storm on Texas/Louisiana border. That being said, Maria is getting ever so closer to St. Croix and Puerto Rico.

Doppler radar image out of Puerto Rico shows a formidable Hurricane Maria. Not often we see a Category 5 hurricane on ground based Doppler radar. It has a near prefect circular eye. The infrared satellite image of Hurricane Maria is very impressive and scary. It is going to be a rough night for St. Croix.

St. Croix is experiencing tropical storm force winds. Hurricane force winds should be later tonight for St.Croix. Puerto Rico should feel tropical storm force winds later tonight. Hurricane force wind comes early tomorrow morning. Hurricane force winds are up to 104 miles 166 km 90 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are are up to 276 miles 442 km 240 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. It has gotten larger from yesterday. The speed Maria is moving at, 10 mph 16 km/h 8.7 knots, tropical storm force winds could last up to nearly 28 hours, while hurricane force winds could last up to 10 hours. This prolonged wind could do a lot of damage for Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

Here is the heat map forecast from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Maria up close with Puerto Rico.

It does not look good for Puerto Rico. Most of the forecast models have Maria making landfall and going over Puerto Rico. The intensity as it is is very concerning. I would not be surprised if Maria intensifies further right before it gets close to Puerto Rico later tonight. This is a very bad for Puerto Rico. If Hurricane Maria makes landfall as a Category 5 on Puerto Rico, it will be the first since 1928, the Okeechobee Hurricane. On September 13, 1928, the Okeechobee Hurricane made landfall on Puerto Rico as a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph 256 km/h 139 knots. The gusts are as high as 240 mph 384 km/h 209 knots. It had a central pressure of 929 millibars. It was very likely the central pressure was lower and stronger. The hurricane was large as it ravaged Puerto Rico. The hurricane claimed 312 lives in Puerto Rico, while 1,200 lives were lost at Guadeloupe. The Okeechobee Hurricane made landfall near West Palm Beach as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph 232 km/h 126 knots on September 17, 1928. The highest wind on land would be around 123 mph 200 km/h 107 knots with gusts as high as 185 mph 296 km/h 161 knots. The hurricane stayed over Florida and claimed at least 2,500 lives and likely more. The Okeechobee Hurricane claimed more than 4,000 lives. The death toll is likely much higher. It is America’s deadliest hurricane since 1900 Galveston Hurricane that claimed 12,000 lives. In fact, Okeechobee Hurricane is the deadliest American disaster prior to 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina.

Once Maria passes Puerto Rico, where does it go?. This is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Maria. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

The forecast models have a westward trend from 24 hours ago. Dominican Republic and Bahamas could feel the impact of Maria. There is also a possibility that Maria could affect North Carolina and the Eastern Seaboard. That would be too early to tell at this time. This is on top of how strong Maria will be.

Most of the forecast models have Maria weakening after it passes Puerto Rico. One model has Maria intensifying back to a Category 5 hurricane in three days. Intensity forecast are notoriously difficult to forecast. All the forecast models are subject to change.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Maria could pose a major threat to Puerto Rico.
-Maria will likely impact Dominican Republic.

This is going to be very bad for Puerto Rico and St. Croix. I fear the damage will be epic and the death toll could be high. This comes at a bad time as Puerto Rico is mired in a serious financial crisis. This could make recovery difficult for Puerto Rico. I cannot imagine what it will be like during Hurricane Maria.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, NOAA Tropical Cyclone Imagery – Storm Floaters, National Hurricane Center, and National Weather Service. Special thanks to all of them.