ENSO Consensus

Revised ENSO Consensus with ERSST v4.

Year January February March April May June July August September October November December
1870 -5.38 -6.15 -7.06 -6.32 -8.93 -10.76 -12.04 -10.38 -9.93 -8.81 -8.72 -8.47
1871 -4.66 -2.20 0.90 1.39 -2.83 -3.32 -3.48 -2.47 -1.18 -1.59 -1.83 -7.30
1872 -7.11 -7.79 -7.38 -8.87 -8.07 -6.43 -5.88 -5.83 -6.21 -6.65 -7.35 -8.34
1873 -9.20 -12.93 -19.59 -17.36 -14.15 -7.87 -5.79 -4.71 -6.19 -6.92 -7.30 -7.20
1874 -9.50 -11.39 -12.30 -11.28 -9.07 -7.85 -9.01 -8.84 -8.03 -9.10 -11.15 -6.22
1875 -6.20 -5.76 -8.32 -8.74 -10.95 -10.71 -9.00 -9.37 -6.31 -5.66 -8.70 -9.23
1876 -13.33 -14.24 -11.66 -13.95 -11.81 -9.37 -5.20 -6.49 -4.88 1.83 1.67 2.41
1877 2.20 3.57 3.03 3.04 0.82 6.75 9.32 17.21 20.17 20.86 20.22 20.17
1878 19.37 21.15 12.51 9.38 5.84 3.57 -2.77 -3.44 -6.18 -5.87 -7.55 -8.71
1879 -7.32 -8.74 -7.63 -8.78 -6.77 -7.43 -8.28 -9.00 -9.74 -9.44 -10.42 -7.71
1880 -10.31 -5.77 -6.13 -3.81 -5.91 -4.30 -1.20 -2.23 -0.69 2.48 4.16 3.12
1881 4.99 2.84 -0.98 -1.67 -0.38 -0.64 -1.81 -1.40 -0.76 -0.78 -7.58 -7.35
1882 -2.73 -5.00 -6.27 -5.35 -6.26 -5.28 -3.01 -1.47 -3.48 -4.95 -5.50 -4.74
1883 -5.16 -6.30 -1.15 -8.67 -7.70 -2.21 0.03 -2.52 -0.02 -2.32 -1.72 0.60
1884 1.37 0.54 -1.11 5.72 2.21 -0.85 0.65 2.34 4.69 1.64 3.14 5.20
1885 5.67 0.37 -2.63 -2.13 -1.62 -1.31 -2.42 1.31 3.48 8.61 8.21 2.34
1886 1.21 -2.71 -5.94 -7.52 -10.79 -12.51 -11.89 -13.06 -11.33 -12.14 -12.21 -14.23
1887 -14.01 -11.58 -9.81 -9.60 -6.23 -4.84 -3.30 -2.50 -3.02 -3.18 -0.10 -0.20
1888 2.48 4.70 7.59 8.88 7.78 9.54 10.66 11.36 13.91 16.02 16.68 14.87
1889 19.01 12.81 12.11 4.50 1.39 -5.97 -8.27 -9.79 -12.88 -12.92 -15.28 -14.26
1890 -14.74 -13.70 -12.86 -11.13 -9.46 -8.32 -7.30 -8.25 -10.22 -8.65 -8.18 -5.20
1891 -5.07 0.75 4.90 3.63 2.95 3.71 2.97 1.83 1.14 -1.00 0.10 -1.28
1892 -3.04 -1.76 -9.34 -10.48 -10.48 -13.58 -12.93 -14.14 -15.50 -16.45 -14.01 -14.35
1893 -13.97 -13.62 -13.22 -14.75 -13.53 -15.90 -15.27 -14.21 -12.67 -12.75 -10.09 -9.39
1894 -12.25 -11.36 -9.59 -6.88 -4.19 -5.64 -7.17 -5.17 -4.61 -5.34 -6.92 -5.83
1895 -5.75 -3.41 -4.38 -3.09 -1.27 -1.73 -1.68 0.92 3.11 2.03 1.71 0.47
1896 -0.53 -1.17 0.94 1.75 7.89 7.69 8.79 11.26 12.10 12.52 13.07 14.24
1897 12.70 8.46 8.37 5.39 3.56 -0.73 -1.00 -1.97 -2.32 -3.72 -4.00 -6.67
1898 -6.09 -7.65 -11.55 -8.46 -5.20 -4.99 -6.59 -7.28 -7.33 -5.37 -5.43 -6.23
1899 -8.46 -8.25 -4.40 0.07 2.80 4.13 5.18 7.85 7.88 6.78 7.29 8.77
1900 8.41 4.75 12.04 11.40 8.74 -1.36 1.72 0.24 3.74 3.44 0.34 2.59
1901 0.97 -1.43 -3.49 -2.79 -3.64 -8.00 -6.90 -5.42 -1.24 0.20 0.06 -1.26
1902 -4.90 -1.35 -1.13 2.32 6.11 9.27 9.39 11.86 13.56 12.95 10.88 8.02
1903 7.76 5.63 -2.81 -5.97 -5.74 -5.31 -9.00 -10.31 -11.08 -10.26 -10.60 -13.59
1904 -12.34 -11.47 -9.83 -11.51 -4.88 0.52 3.84 3.40 3.99 3.52 6.67 3.42
1905 5.87 7.76 10.97 13.73 14.61 15.08 13.68 11.03 10.75 7.82 9.53 8.44
1906 4.72 3.40 0.16 -0.98 -4.25 -5.27 -8.32 -11.02 -12.35 -9.32 -11.13 -8.63
1907 -7.62 -7.75 -7.43 -7.94 -7.79 -6.84 -2.02 0.29 -1.49 -2.97 -3.49 -6.48
1908 -2.41 -6.30 -7.69 -11.91 -9.01 -7.39 -7.28 -8.10 -11.20 -10.22 -10.31 -9.65
1909 -9.86 -9.90 -9.26 -6.93 -9.99 -14.11 -12.28 -12.16 -12.68 -13.41 -14.81 -13.79
1910 -14.35 -16.22 -19.70 -16.10 -13.43 -15.67 -14.79 -12.33 -15.26 -12.11 -14.27 -13.48
1911 -9.10 -9.42 -11.58 -11.49 -7.65 -2.43 1.00 1.82 2.57 6.43 6.90 8.06
1912 10.53 10.12 6.17 6.39 1.28 -2.31 -3.91 -1.57 -2.99 -2.29 -4.18 -2.82
1913 -1.64 -2.04 -6.76 -5.29 -3.07 -1.27 0.15 3.06 3.94 4.72 7.57 8.14
1914 7.34 2.77 -0.78 2.14 0.57 4.17 6.08 8.01 7.99 6.49 7.41 6.27
1915 9.77 6.31 7.28 8.32 8.87 2.81 -1.62 -2.34 -4.22 -7.39 -6.01 -10.71
1916 -9.70 -9.61 -8.15 -9.06 -9.26 -12.90 -17.91 -17.21 -13.85 -16.89 -19.46 -20.35
1917 -18.51 -17.61 -15.33 -13.47 -11.97 -10.87 -11.48 -13.06 -12.50 -12.10 -14.28 -15.37
1918 -11.05 -9.93 -5.49 -7.48 -1.35 6.04 9.84 7.81 8.90 9.10 7.13 9.35
1919 10.30 7.87 2.60 -3.46 2.52 3.66 3.26 1.76 2.25 2.18 0.83 2.17
1920 0.50 2.10 1.72 -0.16 -0.69 -3.23 -3.98 -2.17 -1.41 -2.76 -2.92 -5.45
1921 -6.30 -10.28 -15.28 -10.58 -7.08 -10.71 -5.82 -2.05 -4.47 -3.07 -3.38 -5.51
1922 -6.48 -6.71 -5.59 -4.79 -5.84 -9.02 -8.62 -8.56 -10.17 -8.50 -8.91 -10.69
1923 -8.34 -7.97 -6.17 -5.01 -1.44 1.18 4.21 5.34 4.87 3.37 4.02 0.83
1924 1.30 -2.21 -5.09 -4.42 -11.23 -12.06 -12.48 -13.66 -12.78 -11.67 -12.76 -11.43
1925 -9.20 -9.05 -5.69 -4.12 -1.26 1.40 5.51 7.29 7.86 9.43 9.91 9.33
1926 8.81 9.40 8.82 6.27 3.72 2.96 0.82 -0.34 -3.69 -5.40 -4.59 -4.97
1927 -3.85 -2.46 -6.96 -5.78 -5.40 -5.61 -4.04 -0.37 -0.12 0.87 1.19 -2.48
1928 1.01 -3.06 -4.41 -4.76 -1.53 -0.73 -2.68 -6.10 -5.44 -5.71 -4.29 -6.01
1929 -7.42 -7.19 -3.96 -2.93 1.07 -0.27 0.35 1.25 1.39 -1.02 -1.59 -1.29
1930 -2.43 -0.57 1.78 2.79 1.96 4.70 6.34 6.99 9.59 9.72 11.32 11.35
1931 9.38 11.81 6.08 3.71 -0.92 -3.32 -2.25 -2.17 -5.16 -2.34 -3.60 -4.77
1932 -2.65 0.55 3.52 4.38 4.24 4.87 3.06 1.42 -0.78 -2.27 -2.14 -4.07
1933 -1.60 -4.49 -4.29 -5.41 -7.16 -6.28 -8.88 -8.79 -9.67 -10.12 -10.91 -11.26
1934 -11.37 -7.96 -5.93 -5.49 -2.55 -3.03 -2.19 2.60 -1.22 -4.16 -6.43 -4.39
1935 -6.99 -5.66 -5.95 -3.87 -2.23 -3.31 -2.57 -1.19 -1.09 -1.75 -2.25 -1.28
1936 -2.02 -0.97 -0.27 -3.64 -1.30 -1.48 -3.25 -0.87 -2.46 -2.61 -0.92 -5.00
1937 -6.82 -2.17 -3.52 -3.68 -3.94 -4.15 -1.37 -1.25 -1.83 -2.07 -2.91 -5.71
1938 -7.81 -7.74 -7.62 -10.20 -11.22 -14.06 -14.94 -12.69 -9.63 -9.32 -8.63 -11.72
1939 -12.47 -10.42 -6.92 -4.91 -1.56 1.10 0.86 3.63 3.64 3.19 0.45 3.50
1940 5.86 6.07 9.22 6.52 7.78 7.57 6.25 7.84 8.61 7.60 8.36 13.21
1941 12.10 12.93 12.68 11.57 10.04 9.82 9.20 8.33 6.75 10.18 9.22 8.91
1942 7.62 3.89 1.19 -0.04 -3.77 -7.20 -8.27 -10.98 -12.44 -12.40 -10.60 -13.61
1943 -11.46 -11.05 -7.16 -6.31 -2.04 1.91 -0.31 -2.06 -3.67 -5.45 -5.04 -3.13
1944 -2.07 -2.24 -0.03 2.67 0.97 2.12 1.70 -2.21 -4.25 -4.38 -5.55 -6.58
1945 -5.52 -5.98 -6.86 -2.40 -0.44 -4.18 -3.74 -5.45 -2.31 -0.86 1.66 -1.22
1946 -2.12 -4.67 -2.37 -0.91 -0.23 -2.37 -3.17 -3.95 0.60 -0.31 -1.00 0.16
1947 -0.74 -1.04 -5.43 -1.94 -1.26 -1.83 -4.73 -5.88 -8.36 -6.55 -7.77 -4.25
1948 -2.17 -0.30 -2.13 -0.30 0.16 -0.52 -3.61 -4.61 -3.84 -7.06 -3.80 -3.24
1949 -2.35 -3.16 -2.44 -0.98 -3.54 -4.47 -6.95 -5.63 -7.31 -10.32 -9.69 -12.70
1950 -12.72 -15.43 -11.56 -13.78 -12.57 -14.13 -10.95 -7.95 -7.74 -10.52 -12.43 -12.95
1951 -10.13 -8.70 -2.42 -1.34 2.90 3.18 8.98 5.77 5.97 6.43 5.39 3.15
1952 2.55 2.06 -0.19 1.15 -2.93 -4.56 -3.71 -1.46 -1.74 -2.96 -2.83 0.16
1953 0.51 3.17 5.47 6.45 9.14 3.83 2.62 5.28 4.88 0.84 2.01 1.18
1954 -2.90 0.05 -5.50 -13.89 -11.64 -10.21 -11.03 -12.36 -11.94 -10.22 -9.08 -11.70
1955 -5.28 -10.41 -9.49 -9.16 -15.19 -13.97 -13.64 -12.44 -15.25 -17.65 -19.25 -14.26
1956 -11.98 -9.57 -8.62 -9.91 -10.96 -8.59 -8.56 -9.52 -8.62 -11.37 -8.32 -9.96
1957 -7.26 -0.84 2.93 4.92 8.87 7.85 8.70 10.18 7.73 6.45 10.26 9.89
1958 12.51 9.91 6.77 4.34 5.52 3.60 1.46 -1.13 -0.13 0.58 2.91 1.60
1959 2.88 3.53 -0.99 -0.12 -1.47 -1.59 -2.31 -2.80 -3.82 -3.07 -4.38 -4.21
1960 -2.34 -2.86 -3.49 -4.02 -3.86 -4.12 -4.51 -3.90 -3.77 -4.17 -5.08 -4.49
1961 -2.04 -1.79 1.53 -4.08 -2.22 -0.52 -4.53 -5.01 -7.62 -5.64 -5.92 -7.91
1962 -7.82 -5.32 -6.85 -7.49 -8.61 -6.18 -4.61 -5.15 -6.82 -7.26 -7.00 -7.61
1963 -7.60 -5.38 -5.45 -3.61 -1.85 2.24 4.18 5.10 5.10 6.78 6.02 6.68
1964 3.09 -1.34 -5.59 -10.26 -10.79 -11.84 -10.74 -12.97 -12.22 -12.03 -9.56 -8.67
1965 -5.25 -3.26 -0.59 4.18 5.21 9.39 11.95 11.04 10.24 10.65 11.85 8.41
1966 9.49 4.52 4.08 0.12 -2.72 -2.41 -0.94 -3.40 -3.46 -2.00 -3.59 -4.39
1967 -8.56 -7.34 -8.20 -4.99 -2.40 -3.83 -3.75 -6.23 -9.31 -7.07 -5.83 -6.61
1968 -8.89 -10.34 -8.54 -6.70 -9.57 -4.55 -0.89 0.71 1.62 1.39 2.77 3.58
1969 7.43 4.57 4.72 5.95 7.54 3.82 2.28 2.47 5.33 7.09 4.32 3.64
1970 5.55 3.10 -1.12 0.21 -5.64 -10.02 -10.18 -11.74 -12.45 -11.04 -13.87 -14.46
1971 -12.87 -15.70 -14.05 -12.14 -10.02 -9.16 -7.95 -11.64 -12.44 -12.99 -8.79 -8.79
1972 -5.75 -3.18 -0.73 3.68 8.38 11.13 14.60 14.16 13.18 14.67 14.96 16.70
1973 12.35 8.83 1.55 -2.52 -6.41 -10.04 -11.41 -14.03 -15.03 -14.57 -20.44 -17.88
1974 -18.02 -14.89 -12.89 -8.57 -7.17 -5.65 -6.96 -4.88 -7.89 -9.79 -7.17 -6.96
1975 -4.26 -7.24 -8.11 -7.24 -8.71 -13.17 -13.15 -14.35 -17.04 -17.35 -16.01 -18.16
1976 -15.18 -11.67 -7.99 -3.70 -0.73 2.93 6.62 6.99 7.58 4.26 3.30 4.63
1977 4.76 0.26 3.67 0.56 2.27 5.57 4.52 1.86 2.87 4.98 5.87 5.07
1978 4.15 6.72 -0.18 -3.25 -8.21 -6.04 -5.37 -6.14 -4.50 -2.08 -0.01 1.19
1979 0.98 -2.15 1.68 2.45 0.73 0.27 1.78 2.51 3.83 3.35 4.44 4.40
1980 1.26 1.96 3.31 4.55 3.53 4.01 0.64 -1.22 -0.25 -0.69 0.60 -0.30
1981 -4.81 -2.95 1.63 -1.51 -3.10 -3.42 -4.88 -4.46 -2.97 -0.31 -3.05 -1.63
1982 -1.06 -0.56 -0.54 2.13 6.32 10.69 10.32 12.90 16.34 20.05 23.75 24.91
1983 26.28 24.08 22.12 18.47 14.97 15.32 10.57 6.15 0.51 -2.75 -3.51 -3.99
1984 -4.57 -1.60 0.28 -1.59 -3.67 -3.53 -3.39 -2.17 -1.65 -3.40 -6.60 -6.46
1985 -6.22 -6.83 -5.07 -9.63 -6.32 -3.60 -4.13 -6.72 -4.03 -2.92 -2.99 -3.34
1986 -4.71 -0.27 -2.41 -0.86 -0.67 -2.63 1.48 4.81 6.10 4.11 9.59 9.89
1987 9.17 11.92 13.86 14.85 14.03 13.24 14.35 13.98 13.99 11.34 9.66 8.58
1988 5.14 2.17 0.51 -1.76 -8.75 -11.05 -13.79 -13.28 -12.55 -15.21 -15.87 -13.61
1989 -13.14 -9.66 -7.78 -9.02 -6.99 -5.38 -4.85 -2.01 -3.85 -3.78 -1.56 -0.19
1990 0.12 6.00 1.69 1.57 -0.62 0.22 -0.60 2.36 1.79 0.39 1.51 1.85
1991 0.74 1.67 2.99 4.88 8.04 6.88 7.65 6.87 7.79 9.40 10.23 13.79
1992 15.90 13.57 16.67 15.80 11.89 8.90 4.39 1.25 1.37 4.00 2.49 2.58
1993 4.22 5.55 7.66 13.02 10.74 9.33 6.72 5.91 5.09 5.86 2.84 1.81
1994 1.60 -0.02 1.90 4.54 4.31 4.05 4.59 5.24 6.57 9.07 9.27 10.79
1995 7.78 5.48 0.41 3.25 0.82 -0.25 -2.22 -3.69 -5.31 -5.18 -5.65 -5.23
1996 -6.69 -4.38 -5.83 -5.19 -3.10 -6.20 -4.35 -4.12 -4.42 -3.53 -3.71 -6.90
1997 -5.77 -4.45 3.07 7.64 15.40 20.32 21.16 25.00 23.11 25.18 25.67 24.39
1998 25.88 22.62 21.50 17.96 10.86 1.41 -3.38 -4.96 -7.59 -8.87 -8.90 -11.06
1999 -12.66 -9.22 -7.68 -9.19 -4.87 -6.06 -6.32 -7.00 -7.73 -10.19 -13.17 -13.04
2000 -12.40 -11.30 -6.54 -4.84 -3.62 -2.70 -2.25 -4.25 -4.78 -6.39 -9.48 -6.94
2001 -6.47 -5.94 -1.44 0.18 0.67 -0.14 0.98 0.28 -3.11 -2.43 -3.76 -1.64
2002 -2.69 -1.37 3.00 4.19 7.58 6.85 6.65 7.56 7.75 9.27 10.95 11.14
2003 5.74 5.82 2.67 0.46 -2.50 0.45 0.50 2.40 2.01 3.91 3.82 1.37
2004 4.75 -0.22 1.08 4.27 -2.50 3.42 3.35 4.38 3.98 5.57 7.51 6.03
2005 4.33 7.54 2.57 5.38 5.67 1.49 1.02 2.31 -2.23 -4.40 -4.51 -5.76
2006 -6.69 -2.87 -7.43 -4.27 3.49 3.24 4.68 8.03 7.91 11.15 8.80 9.26
2007 7.37 2.00 -1.03 -0.68 -2.92 -4.06 -2.74 -6.72 -7.79 -10.40 -11.70 -12.37
2008 -12.34 -13.18 -7.90 -3.88 -0.25 -1.67 0.79 -0.70 -3.16 -4.00 -5.18 -6.78
2009 -6.20 -7.19 -1.74 0.17 5.73 6.65 7.07 7.40 5.85 9.61 10.22 10.78
2010 10.90 10.63 8.28 2.48 -1.28 -4.59 -11.55 -13.54 -15.79 -14.29 -13.76 -15.41
2011 -13.16 -11.06 -10.19 -6.52 -1.00 0.67 -2.60 -3.83 -7.87 -7.77 -9.47 -11.18
2012 -6.61 -2.71 -0.82 3.15 3.96 7.25 4.92 4.97 2.79 1.48 0.66 -0.28
2013 -2.46 -1.88 -3.83 -1.27 -4.37 -6.82 -5.39 -2.30 -1.55 -0.81 -2.52 -1.25
2014 -4.41 -3.36 1.65 1.33 4.16 5.64 5.57 5.54 4.74 6.70 8.21 6.20
2015 4.75 2.58 6.73 9.11 14.04 15.38 18.51 20.30 20.69 22.02

ENSO Consensus with ERSST v3b.

Year January February March April May June July August September October November December
1870 -4.33 -4.24 -5.12 -4.78 -4.41 -3.85 -3.73 -3.91 -4.48 -5.16 -4.50 -4.68
1871 -3.13 -2.07 0.29 -0.13 -2.87 -3.80 -3.47 -3.19 -2.52 -2.65 -4.26 -7.35
1872 -7.96 -8.11 -8.69 -10.05 -8.98 -7.33 -7.86 -6.86 -7.33 -7.48 -10.03 -9.21
1873 -9.50 -11.08 -11.71 -9.72 -8.93 -8.82 -7.74 -6.07 -6.98 -7.17 -8.15 -8.20
1874 -11.41 -13.19 -12.55 -10.23 -8.32 -8.04 -8.55 -9.37 -9.16 -8.90 -9.91 -7.47
1875 -7.59 -5.63 -7.37 -8.98 -9.96 -11.50 -9.14 -8.81 -7.03 -5.58 -6.33 -8.20
1876 -12.59 -12.53 -9.43 -11.89 -10.05 -10.51 -4.95 -6.68 -4.02 2.79 3.21 3.02
1877 4.33 3.85 3.29 4.09 1.80 7.39 7.03 7.76 10.00 10.45 9.14 10.51
1878 13.40 16.33 12.30 6.21 1.38 1.97 -3.00 -3.56 -5.98 -5.53 -7.27 -7.87
1879 -7.01 -6.83 -6.60 -7.83 -7.06 -8.41 -8.47 -8.01 -7.85 -8.80 -8.69 -7.15
1880 -11.07 -9.49 -8.41 -5.66 -6.46 -3.80 -1.16 -3.28 -1.84 -0.44 -0.63 0.88
1881 2.94 2.76 2.16 1.47 3.09 0.83 -0.65 -1.19 -1.19 -1.38 -8.46 -8.93
1882 -4.11 -5.53 -6.74 -5.79 -6.92 -5.91 -3.06 -1.80 -3.07 -5.23 -6.44 -8.05
1883 -6.70 -5.71 1.47 -5.87 -6.51 -2.65 0.08 -2.77 -0.01 -1.96 -1.96 0.58
1884 1.02 0.48 0.32 6.55 1.19 -1.85 0.26 2.44 3.46 1.38 3.49 6.05
1885 5.35 -0.71 -1.46 -1.05 -1.09 -2.20 -2.84 1.06 2.86 8.38 8.73 2.71
1886 -0.90 -4.22 -5.61 -7.52 -11.87 -11.66 -11.42 -13.23 -11.30 -12.41 -12.27 -13.54
1887 -12.77 -10.53 -8.06 -8.65 -5.35 -4.48 -2.87 -2.00 -3.05 -3.33 -0.23 -0.61
1888 2.04 4.73 7.44 9.96 8.35 9.95 11.12 11.73 13.78 16.08 17.20 15.63
1889 20.10 12.89 13.51 4.48 0.91 -6.83 -7.91 -9.76 -12.32 -11.74 -14.07 -14.01
1890 -13.37 -11.90 -13.25 -10.63 -9.72 -8.50 -8.29 -8.28 -10.31 -9.14 -8.18 -5.14
1891 -5.16 0.96 3.18 2.66 3.17 3.89 3.67 1.79 0.81 -1.65 0.22 0.02
1892 -2.18 -1.34 -9.57 -10.34 -11.60 -15.39 -13.00 -13.20 -14.52 -15.65 -13.75 -14.34
1893 -14.80 -14.06 -10.68 -12.34 -12.18 -15.55 -15.31 -14.33 -13.11 -13.38 -10.31 -9.11
1894 -12.41 -10.99 -10.63 -6.85 -4.56 -5.01 -5.41 -4.86 -5.68 -6.53 -7.37 -5.30
1895 -6.23 -5.71 -6.08 -3.20 -1.73 -0.71 0.40 3.23 2.89 3.04 3.62 1.83
1896 -0.24 -1.19 1.24 1.89 8.56 8.82 10.23 13.41 12.96 13.21 14.64 16.03
1897 13.74 9.97 8.89 5.80 3.19 -1.10 -1.18 -1.96 -2.58 -3.16 -3.27 -7.24
1898 -6.55 -7.82 -10.95 -8.73 -5.58 -5.29 -6.67 -7.72 -6.97 -3.75 -4.06 -5.71
1899 -8.23 -6.78 -4.60 -0.87 3.72 4.68 6.14 8.59 8.51 8.24 8.10 9.90
1900 9.67 9.54 13.24 11.79 8.17 0.40 1.68 -0.10 3.61 4.22 1.61 1.45
1901 0.13 -1.57 -4.48 -3.04 -3.36 -7.97 -6.87 -6.08 -0.98 0.65 0.23 -0.32
1902 -4.06 -0.93 -2.31 2.22 6.13 8.93 9.37 11.23 13.45 12.22 11.37 8.48
1903 8.24 6.34 -2.01 -5.65 -6.19 -5.70 -7.98 -7.73 -9.41 -10.59 -10.51 -13.94
1904 -12.68 -11.87 -9.72 -12.62 -4.77 1.49 4.49 4.07 5.21 4.21 7.36 3.53
1905 6.02 7.40 10.29 14.46 16.10 16.05 14.53 11.23 10.87 8.89 10.71 8.36
1906 4.47 4.59 2.38 -0.11 -4.38 -5.09 -8.07 -10.55 -12.28 -10.14 -12.19 -9.59
1907 -8.07 -7.01 -7.49 -8.36 -9.01 -7.44 -1.76 0.71 -1.76 -3.47 -3.49 -6.54
1908 -2.32 -7.26 -8.47 -13.24 -9.86 -8.58 -8.15 -9.26 -11.49 -10.13 -10.14 -9.34
1909 -10.16 -10.52 -10.05 -7.16 -10.17 -14.97 -13.28 -13.42 -12.73 -14.14 -16.66 -15.29
1910 -14.13 -15.63 -18.56 -17.05 -14.63 -16.99 -15.22 -12.32 -13.29 -12.75 -15.21 -13.70
1911 -10.02 -9.41 -11.31 -11.45 -7.09 -1.37 1.87 3.59 4.83 8.00 8.22 8.03
1912 9.79 9.94 6.34 6.03 0.34 -3.16 -4.71 -2.23 -2.54 -2.47 -5.35 -3.41
1913 -2.22 -1.87 -5.42 -4.61 -2.84 -1.50 -0.24 2.83 2.95 3.30 5.86 6.46
1914 6.67 2.63 -0.21 2.00 -1.35 3.03 5.81 7.19 6.60 6.35 7.93 6.66
1915 8.40 4.52 7.46 8.13 7.62 2.52 -3.65 -3.02 -4.23 -6.15 -4.49 -10.04
1916 -7.86 -7.07 -5.59 -7.89 -9.18 -13.35 -18.97 -18.54 -14.45 -16.54 -19.18 -19.39
1917 -16.05 -15.33 -13.36 -14.04 -12.67 -10.43 -10.61 -12.18 -13.33 -12.43 -15.03 -16.23
1918 -11.71 -10.38 -6.10 -7.90 -2.03 5.99 9.52 7.95 8.61 9.01 8.76 9.35
1919 9.79 8.01 6.93 4.18 4.13 3.16 4.16 1.20 0.98 1.80 1.98 2.43
1920 0.72 2.68 1.87 0.37 -1.27 -3.03 -5.01 -3.34 -4.95 -4.25 -4.66 -6.40
1921 -6.96 -9.08 -12.73 -9.99 -8.39 -10.93 -4.91 -1.30 -3.88 -3.42 -5.38 -7.77
1922 -8.71 -8.10 -5.99 -4.28 -4.25 -8.14 -7.36 -7.62 -10.03 -10.36 -10.60 -12.01
1923 -9.07 -8.04 -6.44 -3.79 -0.84 1.23 4.34 5.72 5.19 3.67 5.10 1.03
1924 1.29 -2.23 -5.11 -3.43 -10.76 -12.15 -12.36 -13.34 -11.76 -10.89 -12.24 -11.04
1925 -9.61 -8.99 -5.49 -4.17 -1.17 1.31 6.20 7.62 7.74 9.65 9.91 9.83
1926 9.23 10.40 9.94 7.40 4.24 3.00 0.06 -0.78 -3.99 -5.67 -5.07 -4.54
1927 -2.75 -1.70 -7.10 -5.90 -5.17 -5.61 -3.91 -0.40 -0.36 0.67 1.82 -1.92
1928 2.03 -2.14 -3.93 -4.21 -1.62 -1.47 -2.94 -6.16 -6.08 -6.18 -4.00 -5.89
1929 -7.81 -7.13 -3.43 -2.59 1.46 0.10 0.65 1.53 1.48 -1.43 -1.46 -0.84
1930 -2.61 -0.66 1.51 3.83 2.24 5.23 7.08 7.69 10.12 9.23 11.85 12.03
1931 9.95 12.59 6.78 4.59 -0.64 -3.40 -2.73 -1.95 -4.41 -2.00 -3.80 -4.64
1932 -2.27 0.93 3.19 4.67 4.30 4.82 3.38 1.52 0.01 -1.17 -1.35 -3.84
1933 -1.48 -4.31 -3.58 -4.73 -6.97 -6.62 -8.58 -8.18 -8.99 -10.21 -10.49 -10.84
1934 -10.66 -7.67 -5.33 -4.97 -1.50 -2.31 -1.25 3.60 -0.67 -4.11 -6.77 -4.69
1935 -7.23 -5.94 -7.62 -2.98 -0.84 -2.25 -1.49 -0.69 -1.00 -1.27 -1.48 -1.28
1936 -2.23 -0.73 -0.74 -3.03 -1.12 -1.83 -3.03 -0.37 -2.39 -2.55 -0.28 -4.95
1937 -6.47 -1.25 -3.10 -2.38 -2.71 -3.33 -0.65 -0.59 -1.09 -1.17 -2.40 -4.90
1938 -6.79 -6.92 -5.80 -9.52 -10.50 -13.36 -13.02 -11.28 -8.69 -9.25 -7.80 -10.91
1939 -12.11 -9.27 -7.60 -3.75 0.31 2.24 1.49 4.02 5.23 4.96 3.47 5.22
1940 5.61 5.98 8.02 6.95 8.10 7.88 6.14 6.35 7.01 7.11 7.57 14.00
1941 11.51 13.32 12.10 12.24 9.63 8.47 8.50 7.75 6.46 10.07 8.86 8.70
1942 7.32 3.15 1.87 -0.04 -4.71 -8.61 -8.96 -11.00 -12.30 -12.94 -11.17 -14.17
1943 -11.59 -10.91 -7.63 -5.63 -1.12 2.91 0.15 -2.45 -4.46 -6.15 -5.18 -3.40
1944 -2.40 -2.68 0.06 2.96 0.07 0.76 2.40 -1.34 -3.92 -4.59 -5.77 -7.89
1945 -6.01 -5.99 -7.80 -2.93 -2.36 -5.58 -4.28 -4.96 -3.55 -1.84 -0.77 -4.24
1946 -2.02 -3.99 -3.38 -1.05 -1.75 -3.87 -3.43 -4.67 0.46 -0.20 -1.96 0.07
1947 -0.72 -0.42 -4.12 -1.42 -0.55 -3.39 -6.09 -7.26 -8.11 -5.08 -8.34 -4.41
1948 -1.25 0.84 2.34 0.66 -0.36 -2.60 -4.75 -3.87 -4.55 -8.68 -7.35 -2.05
1949 -0.90 -2.63 -2.59 -0.88 -2.31 -3.21 -6.96 -5.75 -8.64 -11.44 -9.57 -12.41
1950 -12.98 -14.83 -11.94 -13.81 -12.25 -14.34 -11.30 -7.71 -7.23 -10.57 -11.68 -12.37
1951 -10.14 -8.58 -3.23 -1.64 3.00 3.44 8.70 6.11 7.03 7.26 6.05 3.82
1952 3.07 2.22 0.49 -0.27 -4.19 -4.86 -4.90 -1.83 -1.67 -3.55 -3.27 0.69
1953 0.09 3.15 5.47 5.59 9.48 3.32 2.01 5.90 4.20 0.57 1.80 0.86
1954 -2.63 -0.30 -4.08 -12.94 -12.86 -10.70 -12.12 -12.06 -12.16 -11.12 -10.15 -11.71
1955 -6.13 -10.93 -9.91 -9.88 -16.49 -15.27 -15.31 -14.92 -15.01 -18.34 -19.24 -15.57
1956 -12.31 -10.66 -7.93 -8.90 -11.11 -9.18 -9.22 -9.72 -8.54 -11.72 -8.79 -10.00
1957 -6.25 0.06 3.46 5.94 9.87 8.35 8.86 9.93 9.20 7.07 10.38 10.51
1958 12.94 10.41 7.01 4.39 5.48 3.01 1.57 -1.78 -0.35 0.48 2.21 1.59
1959 3.47 4.29 -0.06 -0.11 -1.26 -1.37 -2.08 -2.39 -3.31 -3.23 -4.02 -3.95
1960 -2.54 -2.22 -2.94 -4.81 -3.88 -3.58 -4.05 -4.34 -3.76 -4.10 -5.85 -3.69
1961 -1.87 -1.76 2.10 -3.69 -1.84 -0.99 -4.70 -5.04 -7.00 -5.26 -6.56 -8.44
1962 -8.30 -5.65 -7.07 -7.65 -9.06 -6.66 -4.88 -5.10 -6.47 -7.68 -6.69 -7.19
1963 -7.94 -5.03 -4.39 -3.06 -1.07 3.13 3.99 5.39 5.71 7.36 6.54 7.24
1964 3.47 -1.04 -5.95 -10.44 -10.95 -11.69 -11.07 -12.83 -11.93 -11.95 -8.69 -7.21
1965 -4.19 -2.83 -0.57 5.79 6.04 10.52 13.08 11.90 10.83 11.19 12.84 8.69
1966 9.91 4.90 4.39 -0.17 -2.24 -2.98 -1.64 -3.63 -2.64 -2.46 -3.75 -3.83
1967 -8.76 -7.84 -7.85 -4.54 -2.75 -4.90 -3.79 -6.64 -8.65 -6.88 -5.64 -6.51
1968 -8.98 -9.71 -8.03 -7.54 -10.03 -6.02 -1.86 1.05 2.40 2.49 3.14 3.95
1969 7.46 4.72 4.32 6.89 7.78 4.50 3.22 2.47 5.49 7.24 4.54 3.83
1970 5.52 3.03 -1.77 -1.16 -6.41 -11.01 -9.44 -11.58 -11.81 -11.25 -13.55 -13.57
1971 -12.63 -15.41 -14.90 -12.84 -10.51 -9.33 -8.25 -11.91 -11.68 -13.02 -9.49 -7.81
1972 -5.09 -3.14 -0.50 4.01 9.20 12.55 15.45 14.29 14.62 15.47 15.01 17.51
1973 13.04 9.24 2.15 -2.52 -7.40 -10.83 -11.33 -14.35 -14.52 -14.21 -20.09 -17.77
1974 -17.89 -15.09 -13.66 -8.45 -6.65 -5.66 -6.43 -4.94 -8.17 -9.74 -7.36 -6.95
1975 -4.20 -7.31 -8.29 -7.88 -8.63 -13.02 -14.08 -14.89 -17.01 -17.28 -16.30 -17.61
1976 -14.32 -11.44 -9.43 -3.69 0.12 3.61 7.13 8.00 8.29 4.60 3.35 5.00
1977 4.89 0.29 3.67 1.44 2.67 5.33 4.27 2.78 3.49 5.41 5.90 4.97
1978 3.95 7.18 -0.62 -2.90 -9.01 -6.28 -5.22 -5.92 -3.86 -0.96 0.14 1.15
1979 0.98 -2.44 1.11 2.58 0.56 -0.02 2.60 3.15 3.37 4.15 5.31 4.79
1980 2.01 1.59 3.85 4.77 3.00 3.35 0.29 -1.14 0.21 -0.96 -0.09 -1.57
1981 -4.96 -2.38 2.03 -1.19 -3.77 -4.17 -4.97 -4.30 -3.45 -0.75 -2.35 -2.49
1982 -2.23 -0.51 -1.57 1.72 5.79 11.07 11.26 13.93 17.11 20.65 25.05 25.28
1983 27.11 25.65 22.91 19.82 15.14 15.32 11.61 5.77 -0.67 -2.33 -3.29 -3.39
1984 -3.72 -2.35 0.32 -1.74 -3.96 -2.82 -3.62 -2.68 -2.17 -3.09 -6.17 -6.32
1985 -5.83 -7.69 -4.92 -9.42 -6.22 -3.38 -5.02 -7.38 -4.57 -2.70 -3.49 -4.04
1986 -4.91 0.07 -2.46 -0.94 -0.12 -2.77 1.88 5.68 6.06 4.45 9.74 10.48
1987 9.82 12.54 14.43 15.94 14.76 13.83 14.66 14.05 13.83 11.18 9.55 8.11
1988 5.09 2.37 -0.70 -2.35 -9.44 -10.39 -14.10 -14.16 -13.87 -15.02 -15.53 -13.26
1989 -12.88 -9.46 -7.89 -8.43 -7.21 -5.04 -5.43 -1.48 -4.06 -4.12 -1.48 0.24
1990 0.28 5.82 2.14 1.67 -0.93 0.11 -0.52 2.39 2.07 0.09 1.42 0.98
1991 0.00 1.02 3.23 4.91 8.71 7.19 7.23 6.86 8.62 9.39 9.79 13.97
1992 15.84 13.05 16.97 16.68 11.55 8.77 3.79 1.08 1.23 3.64 2.31 2.25
1993 4.67 6.04 7.75 13.75 10.39 9.16 7.28 7.05 5.61 6.33 2.48 1.00
1994 1.07 0.18 2.12 4.26 3.55 3.69 4.81 5.11 7.48 9.51 8.92 10.40
1995 7.59 5.29 1.04 2.82 0.44 -0.60 -2.64 -4.29 -5.08 -4.78 -5.64 -4.83
1996 -6.89 -4.24 -4.79 -5.86 -3.40 -6.35 -5.31 -4.35 -4.46 -3.74 -4.00 -7.02
1997 -6.18 -5.05 3.30 8.43 16.74 21.52 22.04 25.62 24.20 25.74 25.80 24.97
1998 26.84 23.29 22.91 19.14 10.39 2.40 -3.10 -4.66 -7.31 -9.07 -9.47 -10.83
1999 -12.09 -9.01 -7.05 -9.39 -5.16 -5.80 -6.97 -7.21 -7.60 -10.28 -12.98 -12.64
2000 -11.40 -11.39 -7.25 -4.94 -3.52 -1.72 -2.16 -4.39 -4.67 -6.08 -9.72 -6.61
2001 -5.96 -5.03 -1.78 0.42 0.70 -0.40 0.68 0.00 -3.53 -2.62 -4.52 -1.74
2002 -2.98 -2.18 3.77 4.86 8.19 5.86 6.12 7.91 8.03 9.05 10.37 11.60
2003 7.03 6.44 4.06 0.57 -1.83 0.65 0.52 3.34 2.77 4.52 4.46 2.03
2004 5.37 0.04 0.91 4.35 -2.96 3.98 3.55 4.48 4.20 5.97 7.50 5.41
2005 3.55 7.59 0.63 4.47 5.56 1.55 1.30 2.26 -2.39 -5.47 -5.59 -6.04
2006 -7.45 -3.38 -6.27 -5.46 2.82 3.29 5.10 8.34 7.66 11.68 8.70 9.57
2007 7.59 2.71 -0.60 -1.30 -3.98 -4.89 -3.50 -8.51 -8.31 -10.72 -12.37 -13.09
2008 -12.34 -13.05 -7.69 -3.66 0.10 -1.20 0.90 -0.83 -2.61 -3.07 -5.83 -6.84
2009 -6.41 -7.29 -3.13 -0.39 5.58 6.68 6.66 7.44 6.24 10.17 9.82 10.83
2010 11.37 11.21 7.98 1.61 -2.00 -4.29 -12.38 -14.99 -16.42 -14.67 -14.36 -15.69
2011 -13.81 -12.28 -11.98 -7.24 -1.31 0.39 -3.26 -3.63 -7.82 -8.31 -9.62 -11.62
2012 -6.66 -2.87 -0.72 4.46 4.83 7.94 3.84 3.74 2.68 1.12 -0.44 -1.39
2013 -3.17 -2.35 -4.23 -1.84 -4.90 -7.69 -6.46 -3.15 -2.49 -1.15 -3.35 -2.52
2014 -4.71 -2.80 0.80 0.76 4.10 5.73 7.06 6.06 4.89

ENSO Consensus
Strong La Nina <= -12.45
Moderate La nina -7.45 to -12.44
Weak La Nina -2.45 to -7.44
Neutral -2.44 to 2.44
Weak El Nino 2.45 to 7.44
Mild El Nino 7.45 to 12.44
Strong El Nino >= 12.45

ENSO Consensus Explained

ENSO Consensus
ERSST v4 ENSO SST
University of Hawaii-APDRC LAS8 for public
MEI Since 1950
MEI Before 1950
Japan Meteorological Agency SST Index For ENSO
Austrailian Bureau Of Meteorology-Southern Oscillation Index
UCAR-SOI Noise Anomaly (Before 1870)

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