ENSO Consensus

Revised ENSO Consensus with ERSST v5.

Year January February March April May June July August September October November December
1870 -8.07 -9.60 -8.72 -7.62 -7.66 -9.68 -10.65 -6.61 -8.07 -9.55 -8.93 -8.35
1871 -5.15 -3.43 0.17 0.77 -3.55 -2.71 -1.64 -1.10 0.12 -0.58 -2.21 -6.19
1872 -6.71 -7.64 -7.16 -8.29 -7.80 -7.01 -4.52 -6.80 -5.90 -7.04 -8.81 -11.92
1873 -10.15 -14.68 -16.39 -14.48 -9.78 -6.32 -4.56 -2.78 -4.68 -6.52 -7.30 -6.86
1874 -9.91 -12.73 -12.38 -10.74 -9.69 -9.77 -9.41 -8.34 -8.01 -10.04 -10.54 -8.14
1875 -6.13 -5.65 -7.00 -8.89 -10.39 -11.73 -9.74 -9.18 -7.71 -7.04 -7.53 -7.63
1876 -11.72 -13.92 -11.70 -14.96 -13.92 -11.05 -3.32 -4.92 -2.42 3.47 3.01 4.66
1877 6.97 6.03 5.91 10.48 6.24 12.86 14.94 17.76 20.53 22.02 21.92 21.54
1878 20.36 23.24 14.87 8.51 5.46 2.91 -3.55 -3.49 -6.55 -7.02 -8.34 -8.89
1879 -6.90 -6.79 -6.64 -7.68 -6.94 -8.96 -9.27 -8.40 -7.67 -9.20 -10.20 -7.27
1880 -11.12 -5.81 -5.77 -4.15 -4.01 -2.24 -0.52 -2.75 -1.75 -0.15 0.23 1.38
1881 3.27 2.87 2.57 1.36 1.98 0.50 -1.49 -1.89 -1.51 -0.87 -8.96 -7.31
1882 -3.14 -3.49 -3.95 -4.24 -6.40 -5.82 -2.98 -1.71 -3.99 -5.37 -6.18 -6.61
1883 -5.06 -4.65 2.51 -3.48 -4.95 -3.52 -0.50 -3.06 -0.24 -1.50 -0.89 1.37
1884 2.31 2.01 -0.29 5.35 2.57 -0.91 0.69 2.40 5.12 2.30 3.86 5.62
1885 5.77 0.75 -0.97 -1.16 -0.98 -0.51 -2.24 1.76 3.71 8.99 9.05 3.16
1886 1.71 -2.61 -5.64 -7.53 -11.11 -13.04 -11.93 -12.75 -11.18 -12.43 -12.49 -14.85
1887 -15.23 -13.40 -10.41 -9.76 -6.52 -5.38 -3.21 -2.11 -2.55 -2.58 0.52 -0.12
1888 2.61 4.23 7.11 10.09 8.69 10.00 10.63 10.76 13.75 16.36 17.29 16.08
1889 19.83 13.85 13.44 4.99 1.46 -6.41 -8.46 -10.81 -13.38 -13.61 -15.63 -15.24
1890 -15.04 -14.59 -13.15 -10.91 -9.04 -8.83 -8.68 -8.36 -10.44 -8.93 -8.70 -4.32
1891 -3.63 1.44 3.76 3.82 3.78 4.31 3.71 1.67 1.00 -0.86 0.50 0.37
1892 -1.99 -1.32 -10.71 -10.97 -11.53 -13.92 -12.73 -13.99 -14.80 -15.76 -13.55 -13.80
1893 -14.37 -13.52 -12.19 -12.86 -11.94 -15.12 -15.19 -14.27 -12.68 -12.82 -10.26 -9.11
1894 -12.35 -11.49 -11.49 -7.62 -4.77 -5.22 -6.42 -5.03 -6.28 -6.69 -7.78 -4.93
1895 -5.96 -4.43 -6.49 -3.07 0.32 -0.32 0.13 2.24 2.80 3.19 3.43 1.84
1896 -0.22 -0.64 1.09 2.19 8.25 9.27 10.34 12.92 12.58 13.06 14.43 15.41
1897 13.49 9.24 7.35 5.13 3.24 -1.09 -0.97 -1.89 -2.16 -3.21 -4.62 -6.87
1898 -5.97 -7.67 -11.42 -7.98 -4.67 -5.02 -7.57 -8.87 -7.73 -4.83 -4.70 -5.92
1899 -7.84 -8.06 -3.35 0.63 3.24 4.10 4.98 7.53 7.42 6.79 7.29 9.37
1900 10.58 9.46 11.75 11.17 8.39 0.74 1.61 -0.43 3.32 4.04 1.55 1.99
1901 1.40 -0.21 -3.66 -2.29 -3.22 -8.45 -7.58 -6.40 -0.66 1.49 1.42 -0.14
1902 -3.60 -1.35 -2.04 2.33 5.57 8.38 8.76 11.48 14.35 14.00 12.22 8.94
1903 8.59 6.84 -1.94 -5.31 -5.68 -5.76 -9.08 -9.83 -10.68 -11.01 -11.58 -14.07
1904 -14.16 -13.29 -12.00 -12.19 -4.77 1.03 3.55 2.65 3.37 3.54 6.73 3.41
1905 5.58 7.27 10.59 14.07 15.32 15.23 13.55 10.33 10.40 8.27 9.88 8.42
1906 5.07 3.84 1.90 -1.12 -5.12 -6.22 -9.09 -11.54 -12.17 -9.56 -11.76 -9.68
1907 -7.96 -7.46 -7.79 -8.06 -8.13 -6.71 -2.35 0.43 -1.71 -3.08 -3.49 -6.18
1908 -2.02 -6.06 -7.36 -12.30 -9.29 -7.80 -7.81 -8.81 -11.59 -10.42 -10.27 -9.35
1909 -9.98 -10.66 -9.73 -7.38 -10.14 -14.36 -12.65 -12.81 -12.67 -13.76 -15.10 -13.93
1910 -14.21 -15.74 -18.58 -15.86 -13.49 -15.75 -14.56 -11.90 -13.32 -11.98 -13.93 -13.18
1911 -9.45 -9.16 -10.98 -10.36 -6.58 -1.74 2.21 3.85 3.89 8.06 7.97 8.09
1912 10.23 9.78 7.16 6.40 1.06 -2.70 -4.21 -1.58 -2.33 -2.19 -4.86 -2.92
1913 -1.59 -2.22 -6.61 -6.08 -3.28 -1.37 0.12 2.88 3.24 4.22 7.26 7.82
1914 7.35 2.94 0.71 2.25 0.81 3.43 6.19 7.84 7.32 7.23 8.34 7.59
1915 9.57 5.37 7.60 8.85 7.74 2.18 -1.93 -3.13 -5.33 -7.36 -6.48 -10.17
1916 -8.83 -8.31 -5.19 -9.03 -9.86 -13.55 -18.16 -17.92 -15.26 -18.22 -20.31 -20.99
1917 -18.59 -17.12 -15.54 -13.10 -11.99 -10.14 -11.05 -12.79 -12.56 -13.02 -14.77 -14.72
1918 -11.68 -10.26 -5.61 -7.34 -0.57 6.55 9.33 7.96 8.50 9.44 9.93 12.67
1919 11.82 8.59 6.68 0.63 2.66 2.69 2.58 -0.79 1.16 2.52 0.78 3.12
1920 1.94 3.63 2.96 -0.29 -1.51 -4.25 -4.67 -3.34 -3.76 -3.17 -2.78 -5.50
1921 -6.17 -10.06 -14.11 -9.77 -7.06 -11.11 -5.56 -2.38 -4.63 -1.94 -1.59 -4.13
1922 -5.74 -7.49 -4.76 -5.02 -4.51 -8.67 -8.43 -8.97 -10.97 -10.29 -9.45 -10.68
1923 -8.43 -7.86 -6.03 -4.53 -0.64 1.42 4.15 5.25 5.04 4.10 5.15 2.08
1924 1.83 -1.76 -4.28 -3.62 -10.69 -12.11 -12.89 -13.93 -12.58 -11.60 -12.80 -11.62
1925 -9.99 -9.39 -5.26 -4.16 -1.18 0.78 5.20 7.27 7.81 9.45 10.47 10.44
1926 9.96 10.24 10.35 7.26 4.01 2.86 -0.22 -1.34 -4.68 -6.26 -5.18 -5.01
1927 -3.44 -2.49 -6.83 -6.14 -5.41 -5.69 -4.13 -0.93 -0.66 0.90 1.57 -1.78
1928 1.74 -2.32 -4.14 -4.38 -1.37 -1.31 -2.65 -6.09 -5.84 -5.84 -4.06 -5.59
1929 -7.22 -6.74 -3.40 -2.61 1.44 -0.04 0.40 0.81 1.14 -1.19 -1.57 -0.81
1930 -2.10 -0.08 1.63 3.52 2.43 5.21 6.53 7.32 10.05 9.94 11.82 11.97
1931 10.23 12.39 6.46 4.24 -0.56 -3.32 -2.83 -2.60 -5.41 -3.07 -4.45 -5.10
1932 -2.82 0.25 2.65 4.12 4.30 5.09 3.09 1.17 -0.74 -2.32 -1.94 -4.22
1933 -1.93 -5.00 -4.13 -5.07 -7.27 -6.78 -8.99 -8.88 -9.61 -11.13 -11.39 -11.23
1934 -10.64 -7.60 -5.65 -5.23 -1.76 -3.05 -2.08 2.42 -1.45 -4.44 -6.63 -4.55
1935 -7.26 -5.77 -7.46 -3.67 -1.65 -2.88 -2.51 -1.54 -1.57 -1.94 -1.65 -1.25
1936 -2.76 -1.61 -1.37 -3.06 -1.02 -2.09 -3.83 -1.17 -2.48 -2.84 -0.95 -4.96
1937 -6.83 -2.22 -3.57 -3.39 -3.54 -4.00 -1.34 -1.10 -1.60 -1.65 -2.55 -5.41
1938 -8.10 -8.12 -6.59 -10.29 -10.96 -14.39 -15.77 -13.61 -10.01 -9.42 -8.64 -11.43
1939 -12.23 -10.08 -7.10 -4.00 -0.74 1.28 0.70 4.08 3.25 2.91 1.12 4.12
1940 5.90 6.46 8.68 6.94 8.22 7.92 6.66 8.04 8.49 7.58 8.68 14.73
1941 12.67 14.46 13.14 12.23 11.00 9.53 9.42 8.67 7.24 10.77 9.70 9.12
1942 7.43 2.95 1.87 -0.12 -4.71 -8.21 -9.38 -11.85 -12.72 -13.37 -11.75 -14.76
1943 -12.21 -11.59 -8.26 -6.33 -1.82 1.79 -0.73 -2.47 -4.38 -5.95 -5.59 -3.40
1944 -2.03 -1.87 0.14 2.87 0.72 1.06 1.97 -1.77 -3.18 -4.81 -6.29 -6.30
1945 -5.70 -5.47 -6.99 -2.66 -1.47 -6.35 -4.73 -5.77 -3.16 -5.04 -0.13 -2.07
1946 -0.52 -4.82 -5.43 -2.64 -1.47 -4.29 -4.39 -6.46 -0.79 -0.54 -1.70 2.10
1947 -0.36 -0.30 -3.85 -1.47 0.86 -3.12 -5.80 -6.74 -7.75 -7.18 -9.11 -3.58
1948 0.12 1.80 -0.89 0.70 0.58 -1.76 -5.39 -4.50 -4.40 -7.22 -7.69 -2.55
1949 -1.60 -2.88 -2.63 -1.05 -2.95 -4.46 -7.49 -6.66 -8.55 -11.46 -9.91 -12.63
1950 -13.22 -14.69 -12.66 -13.96 -11.96 -13.91 -11.66 -8.08 -7.57 -11.06 -11.98 -12.51
1951 -10.40 -8.58 -2.55 -0.79 3.84 4.62 8.59 5.68 6.92 6.99 5.74 3.86
1952 3.15 2.35 0.37 -0.06 -3.86 -4.69 -4.84 -2.04 -2.00 -3.69 -3.56 0.24
1953 0.36 3.00 5.36 5.67 9.90 4.37 2.22 5.43 4.18 1.08 2.09 1.24
1954 -2.26 -0.38 -4.50 -12.84 -11.93 -10.44 -12.67 -12.39 -12.28 -11.66 -9.91 -11.27
1955 -5.81 -10.48 -9.88 -9.30 -15.03 -14.23 -14.72 -14.58 -14.94 -18.12 -18.76 -15.04
1956 -11.83 -10.74 -8.41 -9.40 -10.72 -8.93 -8.68 -10.02 -8.95 -11.13 -8.42 -9.25
1957 -6.29 -0.09 2.76 5.56 10.33 8.98 8.91 9.78 9.08 7.31 9.99 10.25
1958 13.09 10.38 7.42 4.83 5.71 3.20 1.32 -1.37 -0.19 0.55 1.97 1.53
1959 3.31 3.88 0.02 -0.06 -1.16 -0.92 -2.14 -2.80 -3.61 -3.16 -4.32 -3.89
1960 -2.28 -1.67 -2.03 -4.38 -3.19 -3.24 -4.28 -4.50 -3.73 -3.86 -5.00 -3.53
1961 -1.61 -1.42 1.86 -4.03 -1.76 -1.14 -4.73 -5.24 -6.89 -5.49 -6.33 -8.19
1962 -8.15 -5.48 -6.48 -7.44 -8.76 -6.32 -4.90 -5.09 -6.35 -7.66 -6.79 -6.86
1963 -7.80 -5.15 -4.42 -3.32 -1.01 2.65 3.65 5.16 5.95 7.23 6.25 7.26
1964 3.68 -1.00 -5.89 -10.19 -10.37 -11.35 -11.07 -12.91 -12.44 -12.42 -9.39 -7.97
1965 -4.97 -3.54 -1.25 4.72 5.74 9.91 12.26 11.67 10.97 11.51 12.62 8.76
1966 9.92 4.99 4.90 0.11 -1.74 -2.60 -1.35 -3.64 -2.56 -2.29 -3.69 -3.51
1967 -8.77 -8.01 -7.64 -4.28 -2.63 -4.61 -3.90 -6.59 -8.59 -6.78 -5.77 -6.47
1968 -8.76 -9.41 -7.83 -7.12 -9.04 -4.74 -1.58 0.99 2.32 2.22 3.52 4.26
1969 7.65 5.44 4.49 6.73 7.46 3.85 2.91 2.59 5.49 7.50 4.65 3.55
1970 5.32 3.47 -1.83 -0.99 -5.98 -10.20 -9.68 -11.98 -12.28 -11.47 -13.48 -13.70
1971 -13.21 -15.41 -14.89 -12.63 -10.21 -9.06 -8.47 -12.00 -11.93 -12.90 -9.30 -7.71
1972 -5.51 -2.97 -0.38 4.07 9.05 12.17 14.81 13.71 14.28 15.24 14.99 17.43
1973 13.12 9.37 1.99 -2.74 -7.13 -10.80 -11.45 -14.61 -14.85 -14.48 -20.17 -17.80
1974 -17.81 -14.94 -13.43 -8.86 -7.00 -6.07 -6.67 -5.02 -8.08 -9.53 -7.06 -6.96
1975 -4.44 -7.11 -8.31 -7.96 -8.84 -12.82 -14.01 -15.11 -17.13 -17.26 -16.47 -17.63
1976 -14.52 -11.22 -9.08 -3.66 0.04 3.39 6.75 7.85 7.86 4.81 3.94 4.94
1977 5.02 0.37 3.38 1.24 1.88 4.62 3.89 2.78 3.52 5.58 5.81 5.21
1978 4.11 6.77 -0.65 -2.69 -8.18 -6.05 -5.15 -6.16 -4.22 -1.54 -0.12 1.39
1979 1.49 -2.03 0.97 2.97 0.49 0.03 2.36 2.87 3.06 3.90 5.09 4.89
1980 2.49 1.88 4.04 4.83 3.10 3.39 0.30 -1.22 0.14 -0.26 0.23 -0.95
1981 -4.17 -2.15 1.64 -1.18 -3.69 -4.10 -4.82 -4.07 -3.32 -0.89 -2.19 -1.95
1982 -1.69 -0.63 -0.88 2.44 6.02 10.69 11.07 13.38 16.89 20.60 24.57 24.65
1983 26.27 24.85 22.09 19.42 14.89 14.86 11.47 5.86 -0.66 -2.68 -3.51 -3.85
1984 -4.20 -2.62 -0.80 -2.27 -4.07 -2.89 -3.53 -2.95 -2.23 -3.17 -6.37 -6.53
1985 -6.04 -7.65 -4.97 -9.77 -6.46 -3.57 -5.06 -6.84 -4.37 -2.47 -3.15 -3.46
1986 -4.22 -0.26 -2.51 -1.24 -0.51 -2.59 1.35 5.31 5.84 4.66 9.85 10.54
1987 9.94 12.38 13.91 14.96 14.27 13.95 14.92 14.07 13.91 11.63 9.80 8.44
1988 5.57 3.12 -0.29 -2.39 -9.29 -10.55 -13.59 -13.76 -13.33 -14.87 -15.71 -13.31
1989 -12.94 -9.69 -7.78 -8.42 -7.22 -5.43 -5.48 -1.80 -3.87 -3.66 -1.25 0.24
1990 0.64 5.61 2.50 1.88 -0.46 0.64 -0.22 2.28 2.18 0.62 1.74 1.92
1991 0.89 1.69 3.49 5.30 8.12 7.12 7.41 6.93 8.47 9.80 10.25 14.39
1992 16.18 13.91 17.10 16.62 11.77 8.91 4.14 1.29 1.42 3.66 2.00 2.16
1993 4.29 5.85 7.73 12.99 10.32 9.33 7.17 6.66 5.78 5.79 2.44 1.70
1994 1.32 0.22 2.04 4.47 3.86 3.77 4.84 5.41 7.71 9.51 9.08 10.77
1995 7.80 5.58 1.59 3.18 0.85 -0.73 -2.72 -3.89 -5.05 -4.98 -5.91 -5.18
1996 -6.76 -4.26 -4.74 -5.86 -3.33 -6.73 -5.22 -4.21 -4.70 -3.92 -4.07 -6.49
1997 -5.37 -4.49 3.27 8.62 16.30 20.88 21.77 25.31 24.20 25.74 25.97 24.57
1998 26.43 23.12 22.24 18.00 10.06 2.49 -3.55 -5.81 -7.69 -9.09 -10.07 -11.29
1999 -12.22 -9.48 -7.34 -9.38 -5.28 -5.72 -6.69 -7.30 -8.08 -10.51 -13.14 -12.89
2000 -11.51 -11.24 -7.01 -5.29 -3.83 -2.00 -2.07 -4.01 -4.86 -6.08 -9.47 -7.03
2001 -6.00 -5.88 -2.21 0.06 0.45 -0.57 0.82 -0.05 -3.20 -2.33 -3.97 -1.42
2002 -2.51 -1.73 3.36 4.90 7.83 6.71 7.08 8.27 8.40 9.48 10.85 11.57
2003 5.89 5.97 3.50 0.51 -2.05 0.34 -0.28 2.64 2.35 3.96 3.84 1.59
2004 4.41 -0.12 0.65 3.98 -2.96 3.32 3.62 4.12 4.29 5.81 7.16 5.69
2005 4.11 7.84 1.47 4.87 5.38 1.21 0.60 1.79 -2.08 -5.03 -5.08 -5.86
2006 -7.17 -3.47 -6.23 -4.97 2.87 3.51 5.16 8.06 7.90 11.40 8.74 8.84
2007 6.92 2.31 -0.63 -1.13 -3.73 -4.65 -3.60 -7.64 -8.61 -11.03 -12.65 -13.46
2008 -12.70 -13.03 -7.82 -3.82 0.32 -0.82 0.76 -0.50 -2.51 -3.59 -5.76 -7.12
2009 -6.25 -7.57 -3.24 -0.16 5.40 6.54 6.64 7.55 6.50 10.48 10.50 11.77
2010 11.94 11.50 8.25 1.29 -1.85 -4.12 -12.08 -14.49 -16.15 -14.87 -14.55 -16.13
2011 -13.46 -11.69 -11.14 -6.93 -1.25 0.11 -3.26 -3.87 -7.68 -8.06 -9.37 -10.91
2012 -6.43 -2.81 -1.50 3.76 4.27 7.74 4.66 4.52 2.36 1.42 0.09 -0.39
2013 -2.05 -1.87 -3.43 -1.89 -4.88 -6.92 -5.86 -3.02 -2.02 -1.03 -2.96 -1.73
2014 -3.97 -2.01 2.30 1.99 5.33 7.00 5.68 6.03 5.65 7.12 8.07 5.96
2015 5.00 3.33 7.20 9.86 14.77 16.72 19.80 21.14 22.16 23.26 21.55 21.85
2016 22.21 19.56 14.84 13.21 5.22 1.88 -0.45 -2.02 -3.87 -1.14 -1.55 -1.04
2017 -0.16 3.62 4.46 8.11 5.48 5.23 0.08 -1.88 -4.56 -4.69 -6.02

 

ENSO Consensus
Strong La Nina = 12.25

ENSO Consensus Explained

ENSO Consensus
ERSST v5 ENSO SST
University of Hawaii-APDRC LAS8 for public
MEI Since 1950
MEI Before 1950
Japan Meteorological Agency SST Index For ENSO
Austrailian Bureau Of Meteorology-Southern Oscillation Index
UCAR-SOI Noise Anomaly (Before 1870)

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