This is August and the tropics are heating up. We have Gert in the Atlantic, which does not pose a threat. Let’s cut to the chase and focus on Invest 91L and 92L. Let’s start with 91L. Here is a heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance. The GFS goes up to 10 days.
Looking at the forecast model of where 91L will go, most of have it heading into the Caribbean. There is convergence around Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. From there, it enters into the Gulf of Mexico. Another has it going into Georgia or Carolinas. It is too early to tell where 91L will go. Here is an intensity forecast model for 91L.
Most forecast models have 91L becoming a hurricane in the next 4 days. One model keeps it at barely tropical storm. Last night, one forecast model had Invest 91L as a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph 280 km/h 150 knots wind!
That is really bullish right there! Forecast models, especially intensity forecasts are unreliable. We have a long way to go. Let’s now turn our attention to Invest 92L. Here is a heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance. The GFS goes up to 10 days.
92L has a more northwestward trend. The 10 day forecast has it affecting the East Coast to Canadian Maritime Provinces. Again, it is too early to tell where 92L will go. Here is an intensity forecast model for 92L.
Most forecast models have 92L as a tropical storm in two days. None have 92L as a hurricane. Since 92L is newly identified, the intensity forecast model is going to be on the low side.
The tropics are heating up for sure. I think 91L will be Harvey, while 92L will be Irma.