Beryl, Soon To Be Chris, And Yes Maria

Croatia won in another nail biter against Russia, the host nation of the 2018 World Cup. It is a major upset for sure. Who would of thought Croatia would go this far in the World Cup? Anyways, let’s cut to the chase with the tropics. It is heating up in July. We have Beryl, soon to be Chris (Tropical Depression 3), and Typhoon Maria. Yes, Maria, the same name that ravaged Puerto Rico. I would of thought that name was retired for good. Let’s start with Beryl.

The first hurricane of the 2018 season has weakened back to a tropical storm due to a combination of wind shear and dry air. The wind shear map is from CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group and GOES-16 satellite image is from GOES-East Imagery-Latest Full Disk Images.

Beryl is forecasted to go west-northwestward as it weakens. Some of the forecast model have Beryl going over hurricane ravaged Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.

The intensity forecast has Beryl weakening to a tropical depression. It is very likely a tropical depression by now. By the time it is over the Caribbean, it is probably going to be a tropical depression or tropical wave.

There is Tropical Depression 3, which is going to be Chris soon. The forecast models have Chris as a Category 1 hurricane within a couple of days.

Most forecast models keep Chris away from the Eastern US. A couple of them have Chris making landfall. However, the slow movement of Chris makes it difficult to forecast. Also, the forecast heat map is more circular, which suggests this is a rather low confident forecast. I saw this pattern with Harvey, which lingered over Texas. North Carolina and Virginia should keep an eye on Chris.

Lastly, there is yes, Typhoon Maria. It is in the West Pacific. It was once a power Category 5 Super Typhoon. It is currently a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph 225 km/h 120 knots winds. I am surprised that Maria is used in the West Pacific as it has been retired due to it ravaging Puerto Rico. Anyways, most forecast models have Maria heading west northwest towards Taiwan and than onto China.

Here is the intensity forecast model for Typhoon Maria.

Looks rather spurious as it is all over the place. I think Typhoon Maria will hit Taiwan as a Category 3 or 4 typhoon in about several days from now. The mountains of Taiwan tend to weaken typhoons. Taiwan would have to deal with strong winds and heavy rains, especially in the mountains. Some areas could see up to 50 inches/127 centimeters of rain once it is all over. Maria is likely to make landfall on China as a Category 1 or 2 typhoon in about a few days from now.

Here is my take.
-Beryl is most likely to weaken into a tropical depression
-Chris will form and likely have an impact on North Carolina and Virginia
-Maria could make landfall on Taiwan as a Category 3 or 4 typhoon and then on China as a Category 1 or 2 typhoon.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance.

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Soon To Be Hurricane Beryl

Tropical Storm Beryl formed just today from Invest 95L. It is a rather small tropical storm with tropical storm force winds extending up to 35 miles from the center. That is a small tropical storm with 65 mph winds as of 9:00 PM CST. A small sized storm can intensify rapidly. Some intensity forecast models have Beryl as a hurricane within 24 hours.

However, I think Beryl will be a hurricane sooner. In fact I would not be surprised if it becomes a Category 2 or even 3 hurricane come morning. Like I have said, intensity forecast models are not that reliable. The next question is where does Beryl go.

Most of the forecast models have Beryl heading into the Caribbean. Some have it heading towards Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti. It would be bad for Puerto Rico as they are still reeling from the ravages from Hurricane Maria. It is too early to tell where Beryl will go at this time.

Interesting to note that forecast models have Beryl weakening five days from now. Why is that?

There is wind shear over the Caribbean. Wind shear blows tops of thunderstorms, which can weaken or inhibit tropical development. Smaller tropical cyclones are more affected by wind shear than larger tropical cyclones.

Tropical Storm Beryl bears watching as it could be a problem for the Caribbean.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Is Here

Subtropical Storm Alberto formed earlier today, which was Invest 90L. It is clearly a subtropical storm based on satellite image.

A subtropical storm has thunderstorms away from the center, mostly to the east in the Northern Hemisphere or west in the Southern Hemisphere. They look more like extratropical cyclones than tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones have the most intense thunderstorms near the center.

Tropical storm force winds in Subtropical Storm Alberto are are up to 253 miles 407 kilometers 220 nautical miles across from northeast to southeast quadrant. The winds are east of the center. That is typical of a subtropical storm. The biggest question is where will Alberto go?

This is a heat map from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. The heat map is within 300 miles (480 kilometers) from the center. The forecast models have a consensus that Alberto will go somewhere between Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, or Florida Panhandle. There is a small chance it go could deviate. The next question is how strong will Alberto be?

Most forecast model keeps Alberto as a tropical storm. However, one intensifies Alberto into a Category 1 to near Category 2 hurricane. I think Alberto will be a tropical storm at most. A hurricane is very remote at this time. I do not think Alberto will become a hurricane. It will more then likely become a full fledge tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. I would be more concerned of heavy rain and flooding from Alberto than wind.

Future Alberto Part 2?

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on Invest 90L. They think in the next 5 days it has a high chance of developing into something tropical.

Interestingly, the intensity forecast keep Invest 90L as a tropical depression. One has it as a tropical storm in 36 hours.

This is not the latest intensity forecast model. It should come out later tonight. The biggest question is where does Invest 90L go?

This is a heat map from data from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. The general consensus is it will linger over the Caribbean and possibly move into Mexico or Belize. From there, it goes north. The forecast models tend to congregate around Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. There is a small risk that Southwest Louisiana and Southeast Texas could get hit by Invest 90L. This is still a rather low confidence forecast of where future Alberto will probably go in the next 5 days.

I would not be surprised we see Tropical Storm Alberto this weekend. The question is where does it go. Everyone in the Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on Invest 90L. It can go anywhere it wants.

Future Alberto?

The first Invest for the 2018 hurricane season has been tagged as Invest 90L. It is in the Caribbean off the coast of Belize. It is an area of low pressure that is producing a lot of heavy rain. The question is where does it go in the next 5 days.

This is a heat map from data from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It looks like a low confidence forecast as it is all over the place. Some forecast models have it heading towards Alabama. Some have it towards Texas or Florida. It is low confidence because no surface low has formed yet. If a surface low was to form, than we could have a better idea including intensity.

Most forecast models want to keep Invest 90L as a tropical depression. Some want to intensify it to a tropical storm. If 90L is to become a tropical storm, it would be Alberto. I consider the intensity forecast low confidence. Truth is, intensity forecasts are not high confidence for the most part. Forecasting intensity is difficult despite better forecasting technology. I think 90L could become Alberto. Here are my reasons.

Let’s start with the Gulf of Mexico water. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is greatest in the Caribbean, but not so in the Gulf of Mexico. It is May, so the Gulf of Mexico is not going to be this warm.

However, the depth of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico is fairly deep. If the water is very warm at the surface, but not so deep, then that can help weaken tropical cyclone development. If the water is warm, but not super warm, but deep, that is more favorable for tropical development. I would look at depth of warm water more so than surface temperature.

Another factor to look at is wind shear from Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product.

Wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico is below average. More wind shear tends to put a lid on tropical development. Less wind shear is more conducive to tropical development. A tropical wave over very warm and deep warm water with plenty of wind shear is less likely to develop. If it is over not so warm water with low wind shear, it is more conducive to develop into something tropical. Wind shear blows thunderstorm tops off, which inhibits tropical development.

I think Invest 90L could develop this weekend. It bears watching.

Nate Is Edging Closer To The Gulf Coast

Nate is now a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph 144 km/h 78 knots wind. Further strengthening is possible with Nate. The question is how strong will Nate be by landfall.

Most forecast models have Nate intensifying into Category 2 with one intensifying into Category 3 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Nate becomes a Category 3 hurricane upon landfall. Category 4 or 5 is highly unlikely as it is moving quickly at 26 mph 42 km/h 22.6 knots. Here is a forecast model of where Nate will possibly make landfall. The heat map is from within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point.

There is a consensus that Nate could make landfall southwest of New Orleans to Pensacola area. It is unlikely Nate could deviate and hit Harvey ravaged Texas Coast. At this rate, Nate could make landfall later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Tropical storm force winds could start later this afternoon to evening.

Nate is not a large hurricane. Here is a wind radii map of Nate.

Hurricane force winds are only on the east side of Nate. Hurricane force winds are up to 69 miles 110.4 km 60 nautical miles across from northeast to southeast quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are are up to 230 miles 368 km 200 nautical miles across from northeast to southeast quadrant. However, since Nate is moving quickly, hurricane force winds maybe felt up to nearly three hours on the eastern side of Nate. Tropical storm force winds maybe felt up to nine hours.

The motion Nate is moving at, many areas could see 4 to 8 inches/10.2 to 20.3 centimeters of rain with isolated totals as high as 12 inches/30.5 centimeters. The forward motion should keep inland flooding risk low at this time.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Nate will make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast.
-Coastal flooding will be the main problem.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance and National Hurricane Center. Special thanks to all of them.

Tropical Depression 16 (Future Nate)

Tropical Depression 16 just formed. It could be Nate soon. It is October and it can be active. October has produce some very intense hurricanes like Great Hurricane Of 1780, 1924 Cuba Hurricane, Hattie, Opal, Mitch, Wilma, and Matthew. In fact some of the most intense tropical cyclones known have occurred in October like Tip, Patricia, Wilma, and 1999 Odisha Cyclone. They are the most intense tropical cyclones in their basin in the Northern Hemisphere! Here is the heat map forecast from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Tropical Depression 16. The heat map is from within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point.

Most of the forecast models suggest that Tropical Depression 16 may go over Central America and then go over the Caribbean. From there, it enters the Gulf of Mexico. This is what concerns me.

The Northwest Caribbean off the coast of Belize and Yucatan Peninsula is very warm. If conditions are right in the atmosphere, Tropical Depression 16 or future Nate could undergo rapid intensification. Warm water is not the only factor that allows hurricanes to rapidly intensify. If the upper air is favorable like more humidity and less wind shear combined with warm water, it could allow rapid intensification. This is the same area where Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Here is the intensity forecast.

Only one forecast model has future Nate as a major hurricane. Forecasting strength and intensity is notoriously difficult. I would not be surprised if Tropical Depression 16 or future Nate becomes a major hurricane.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Nate will form as early as Thursday.
-Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico needs to watch.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential. Special thanks to all of them.