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Tag Archives: 2023
Intensifying Idalia
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL102023#tab2
Hurricane Franklin is the first major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic Season. It is a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds as of 11:00 PM AST per National Hurricane Center (NHC). It peaked as a Category 4 hurricane. However, it is over the open Atlantic and poses little threat at this time. Right now, my main concern is Hurricane Idalia. It is a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds as of 11:00 PM EDT. However, looking at satellite images, there is a tiny eye and circular shape suggests it is likely intensifying. Here is the intensity forecast model from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Most forecast models have Idalia as a Category 3 hurricane with one as a Category 4 hurricane. I consider intensity forecast models unreliable. I think Idalia is going to be a Category 4 hurricane by morning. It may even be a Category 5 hurricane. The water is quite warm. Here is a Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity for the Gulf of Mexico. It is courtesy of Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA).
Idalia is over water that could support 880 millibars and winds of over 175 mph (150 knots). It does have the potential to be a Category 5 hurricane if conditions are right. I am most inclined to predict that Idalia will be a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. The most pressing is where Idalia will make landfall. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.
Most forecast models have Idalia heading towards the Big Bend of Florida. Big Bend is prone to storm surge due to large area of shallow water and shape of a funnel. Bays are vulnerable to storm surge as they have shallow water and funnel shape. Think Gavleston or Tampa Bay, which is one of the high risk area for storm surge. New Orleans, Houston, New York City, and Bangladesh are high risk for storm surge. Here is a storm surge map from the NHC. It is a potential storm surge flooding map.
Some areas could see up to 15 feet storm surge, which is quite high. It could flood land areas with over 9 feet of water. That is dangerous storm surge. Anyone in the storm surge area should evacuate. Another factor for storm surge is size of storm and forward speed. Idalia is moving at 18 mph, which is rather fast. The speed could prevent Idalia from becoming a Category 5 hurricane. It is also a smaller hurricane. Here is a map wind radii for Idalia from NHC.
Tropical storm force winds extend up to 160 miles. Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles from the eye. Parts of Florida are already dealing with tropical storm force wind. The smaller size and relative fast speed of Idalia could make it less of a storm surge threat. Regardless, storm surge will be a dangerous threat for Florida.
Hurricane Idalia is going to be a dangerous hurricane. Anyone in storm surge area should of evacuated by now. Anyone inland should hide from the wind. It is going to be a rough ride.
Here is what I think will happen.
-Idalia will likely be Category 4 or 5 hurricane by morning.
-Idalia will likely make landfall on Florida by morning and near peak.
-Mostly will be a storm surge and wind event.
Tropical Depression 9 Or Future Harold?
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16§or=gm
The Atlantic has heated up after it was dormant. Emily, Franklin, and Gert have formed. Only Franklin remains, but is out in the Caribbean. This brings us to Tropical Depression 9 or future Harold. Interestingly, Harold replaces Harvey, which ravaged Texas with heavy rain and flooding in 2017. I do not think this will be a repeat of Harvey by any stretch. Tropical Depression 9 is a tropical depression as of 10:00 PM CDT per National Hurricane Center. It has been hot and dry in Texas, so any rain is welcome. That leads to the question, where does Tropical Depression 9 go?
Here is the most recent forecast model for where Harold will go. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.
Most of the forecast models have Tropical Depression 9 heading towards South Texas. Some go far south as the mouth of Rio Grande River to far north as Corpus Christi. Most models have it going towards South Texas. There is a remote chance it could go towards Southeast Texas, but that is unlikely at this time. It currently remains a tropical depression. Here is the intensity forecast model from NCAR.
Most forecast models keep it as a tropical storm for a short time. One has it as a Category 1 hurricane, which keeps at as one far inland. The Gulf of Mexico is warm and can support Category 5 hurricane if conditions are right. Here is a Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity for the Gulf of Mexico. It is courtesy of Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA).
I would not be surprised if Harold becomes a strong tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane before landfall. A major hurricane is unlikely as it is moving rather quickly. That would keep a lid on any further intensification. Tropical Depression 9 also has to deal with strong wind shear. Here is a wind shear map from CIMSS.
Wind shear and fast motion speed are likely to keep Harold as a tropical storm to Category 1 hurricane before landfall. Tropical cyclones have rapidly intensified right before making landfall on Texas. Something to not rule out with Harold. The satellite image of Tropical Depression 9 suggests it could be intensifying. There is also lightning near the center of future Harold. Here is a lightning flash map from GOES-East CONUS – Geostationary Lightning Mapper.
There was plenty of lightning near the center. It appears to have tapered off in terms of lighting. The circular shape also suggests it could be a tropical storm later tonight. The bandings around the tropical depression is also a sign Harold is about to form soon.
As with tropical systems, they often bring rain. How much rain will fall from future Harold? Here are rainfall forecast totals between August 21, 2023 to August 28, 2023. They are from Weather.US. The forecast models are:
GFS (American)
EURO (European)
ICON (Germany)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)
JMA (Japanese)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)
The Korean has the highest amount of 19.70 inches of rain. The Japanese has the lowest amount of 4.80 inches. Quite a wide range forecast in terms of rainfall. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. I look at rainfall total forecast.
| Mean | 9.40 |
| Median | 7.50 |
| Standard Deviation | 5.00 |
| 95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound | 4.78 |
| 95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound | 14.02 |
The mean rainfall total is 9.40 inches with median of 7.50 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 4.78 inches to 14.02 inches. It is probable the rainfall total will be somewhere between 4 to 14 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be below 4 inches or over 14 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the rainfall total is probably going to be somewhere between 4 to 14 inches of rain. More than likely, it is over 4 inches of rain.
I suspect most areas will see between 1 to 3 inches of rain. Some areas could get over 6 inches. I would not rule out 12 inches or higher once it is all over. All the forecast models do have rain over Southeast Texas. The Japanese has the highest with 4 inches of rain in the next 7 days.
Here is what I think will happen.
-Tropical Depression 9 will be Harold by morning.
-Tropical Depression 9/Harold is likely to make landfall on South Texas.
-Most areas in Texas will see rain.
Historic Hillary
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=EP092023#homePageLink
Hurricane Hillary is a monster hurricane as a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds as of 10:00 PM CST. It is quite large for a East Pacific Hurricane as it it has tropical storm force winds extending up to 255 miles! Most East Pacific hurricanes are small as the basin is smaller than Atlantic or West Pacific. The East Pacific produces many hurricanes due to warm water, less dry air, and North American Monsoon. Monsoon spin up thunderstorm clouds. In fact, it is the second most active basin in the world. Only the West Pacific is most active. Typhoon is for West Pacific, which is west of the International Date Line.
Here is the most recent forecast model for where Hillary will go. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.
Most of the forecast models have Hillary heading northwards towards Baja California. From there, it could remain over Baja California or stay over the ocean and head towards Southern California. How intense will Hillary be by the time it comes close to Southern California? Here is an intensity forecast model from NCAR.
Most forecast models have Hillary weakening in 24 hours. The NVGI has it intensifying further. I would not be surprised if Hillary does intensify further. I think Hillary is most likely to weaken further. Most forecast models have Hillary as a tropical storm before it hits Southern California.
Tropical cyclones have hit Southern California in the past. It last happened in 1939, when it made landfall around Long Beach. It has been dubbed “El Cordonazo” or “The Lash of St Francis”, which is named by Mexican fishermen. The once hurricane dumped heavy rain over large area of Southern California. Some areas saw nearly a foot of rain. The storm claimed nearly 100 lives. San Diego was hit by a hurricane in 1858. The only recorded hurricane to hit California. It is very likely California has been hit by hurricanes prior to 1858. It reportedly dump heavy rain over a large area of Southern California. Both occurred during El Nino. East Pacific is more active during El Nino.
Tropical cyclones rarely hit California because the water is cooler, compared to the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Tropical cyclone remnants have impacted California and the American Southwest. They often provide beneficial rains.
Here are rainfall forecast totals between August 18, 2023 to August 28, 2023. They are from Weather.US. The forecast models are:
GFS (American)
EURO (European)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)
JMA (Japanese)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)
The Canadian has the highest amount of 11.00 inches of rain. The Japanese has the lowest amount of 6.00 inches. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. I look at rainfall total forecast.
| Mean | 8.38 |
| Median | 8.15 |
| Standard Deviation | 1.82 |
| 95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound | 6.47 |
| 95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound | 10.30 |
The mean rainfall total is 8.38 inches with median of 8.15 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 6.47 inches to 10.30 inches. It is probable the rainfall total will be somewhere between 7 to 11 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be below 7 inches or over 11 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the rainfall total is probably going to be somewhere between 7 to 11 inches of rain. More than likely, it is over 7 inches of rain.
I would not be surprised if some areas see over a foot rain. It would mostly likely be in the mountainous areas of California and Arizona. Mountainous areas on windward side are very wet. In fact, some of the wettest areas in the world are in mountainous areas.
Here is what I think will happen.
-Hillary is likely to weaken overnight.
-Hillary could make landfall on Baja California.
-Hillary is likely to make landfall as a tropical storm on Southern California.
Hurricane Alicia, 40 Years Later
An original post from 2013 that is reposted and changed.
It has been 40 years ago at this very moment that Hurricane Alicia ravaged Southeast Texas, centered in the Houston metropolitan area. Hurricane Alicia came during the Cold War between America and Soviet Union. The Cold War ended in 1991 and underwent change. The world changed with 9/11 and COVID Pandemic.
The winter of 1982-1983 was an extremely strong El Nino. It was the strongest prior to winter of 1997-1998. It is one reason why 1983 Hurricane Season was inactive because the Pacific was coming off of a strong El Nino. There was a tornado outbreak in the early morning hours of May 20, 1983. It would be the last major tornado outbreak in the Houston area until November 21, 1992. Summer of 1983 was a wet one. In early August, an unusual cold front passes Southeast Texas, setting off thunderstorms as warm and moist air clashes with cool and drier air. Once the cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) forms near the coast of Alabama and Mississippi on August 14th. A MCS is a large area of thunderstorms with a center of low pressure.
The area of thunderstorms continues to persist that a low pressure system forms on August 15th. By 7:00 AM CST, the area of thunderstorms became Tropical Depression 3. It is unusual to see a tropical cyclone development from a frontal boundary in August. It is more likely to do so early or late in the season because cold fronts usually do not go into the Gulf of Mexico. Later that day, Tropical Depression 3 became Tropical Storm Alicia with 50 mph winds. It was strengthening due to favorable conditions. Also, Alicia was a relatively small storm and was in an area of higher ambient pressure. Alicia was moving slowly to the west-northwest towards Texas.
On August 17th, Alicia becomes the first hurricane of the 1983 season. It is slowly moving south-southwest of Galveston. Galveston has been hit by hurricanes in the past. It is also where the deadliest hurricane and natural disaster in American history, the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. It made landfall southwest of Galveston on September 8, 1900. It claimed 12,000 lives, which is more lives lost than the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake (6,000), September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks (3,000), and Hurricane Katrina (1,836) combined.
What is Galveston doing to prepare for the onslaught of Alicia? They are ordering people to evacuate and take cover on high ground. They evacuate to avoid storm surge produced by the hurricane. Before hand, when the National Hurricane Center (NHC) were issuing gale warnings and they were not taken seriously. Galveston Mayor E. Gus Manuel ordered an evacuation on storm surge vulnerable areas. Conditions begin to worsen in Galveston. By midnight of August 18th, Mayor Manuel orders a mandatory evacuation, which is by than too late. Bridges are inaccessible due to deteriorating weather condition in Galveston.
Alicia undergoes rapid intensification and becomes the first and only major hurricane of the 1983 season. It is getting ever so closer to Galveston. Waves are getting larger, storm surge is getting higher, wind is getting stronger, and rain is getting heavier. Alicia is getting close to make landfall. People who are trying to evacuate are realizing they made a huge mistake. Their complacency proved to be a decision they would regret. The last time, an evacuation was called was in August 1980 when Hurricane Allen was in the Gulf of Mexico. Allen was a Category 5 hurricane before it made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in South Texas. Galvestonians thought they dodged a bullet again. They were proven very wrong. In some cases, it proved deadly.
A little after 1:00 AM, Alicia made landfall southwest of Galveston as a major hurricane. Galveston was getting hammered with strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surge. At landfall, Alicia was slightly larger than average. It had gale force winds extending up to 125 miles and hurricane force winds extending up to 60 miles from the eye. Alicia was not done with Texas. It was moving to the northwest towards the city of Houston. Everyone in Houston had hunkered down for Alicia. It was a very long night.
As Alicia moved further inland, it was weakening, but it did little to quell the fears of Houstonians. Houston was getting violently lashed by Alicia with heavy rain and strong winds. To make matter worse, tornadoes were spawned by Alicia. An area from Hobby Airport to Galveston were hammered by tornadoes. Power lines and transformers were getting blown away. Power outages were wide spread throughout the Houston area. By the time Alicia was over Downtown Houston, it had weakened to a borderline Tropical Storm/Category 1 hurricane. However, the winds were lashing Downtown Houston. The strong winds turned pebbles into bullets, which were on roofs of these at the time new skyscrapers. The pebbles damaged many windows on those downtown buildings. As Alicia progressed, it was weakening into a tropical storm and dumping heavy rain. There was widespread flooding in Southeast Texas from Alicia’s heavy rain. Many areas in the Houston area saw 6 to 10 inches of rain with isolated totals of 11 inches. This is flooding on top of storm surge that flooded coastal areas.
The next morning, people woke up to widespread damage from Alicia. Trees were knocked down, damaging houses, flooding streets, and no power. People are wondering what to do next, rebuild or not. To make matters worse, 21 people died from Alicia. All in all, Alicia did $2.6 billion dollars in damage, making it at the time, the most costliest hurricane in Texas. The name Alicia would be retired from the hurricane name list and be replaced with the name Allison.
Allison was first used in 1989 and it ravages Southeast Texas in the form of a tropical storm that dumps heavy rain. Also, it would ravage Central Louisiana, giving them record rainfall. However, that would not be the last time, Allison would visit Texas. In June of 2001, Tropical Storm Allison visits again and this time it proved to be catastrophic on June 8-9, 2001. Allison dumps extremely heavy rain over Houston and causes $5.5 billion in damages and claims 22 lives. As a result, Allison was retired and replaced with the name, Andrea.
Alicia would not be the last catastrophic hurricane to visit Houston-Galveston area. On September 13, 2008, Ike made landfall on Galveston. Ike was not as strong as Alicia in terms of wind, but was much larger, on the scale of Carla (1961) or Katrina (2005). Ike was extremely catastrophic for Texas and Louisiana, that it is the third most costliest hurricane, only Katrina and Sandy exceed Ike. 84 people in Texas lost their life from Ike and did a total of $37.5 billion in damages basin wide. Hurricane Harvey paid a visit to Texas in August 2017. Harvey dumped heavy rain over a large area. Many areas in Texas and Louisiana had 30 to 40 inches with amounts as high as 80 inches of rain! Harvey claimed a total of 103 lives and did $125 billion in damages. Harvey ties with Katrina as the costliest hurricane in America as of 2023.
NHC-Hurricane Alicia Preliminary Report
Committee On Natural Disasters Hurricane Alicia
Weather Prediction Center-Hurricane Alicia
April 2023 Hurricane Season Forecast
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/Sandwich/
2023 is proven to be just a turbulent year, like this decade so far. Sudan and Ukraine are engulfed in war. The 2020s has been a turbulent decade so far. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2023. Here are other forecasts. ACE is short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy.
Colorado State University
13/6/2 ACE: 100
Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10-14 Storms/5-7 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 70-110
Tropical Storm Risk
12/6/2 ACE: 84
Accuweather
11-15 Storms/4-8 Hurricanes/1-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 75-105
Crown Weather
12/6/2 ACE: 90
The Weather Channel
15/7/3
Weather Tiger
13-18 Tropical Storms/5-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 65-135
University of Arizona
19/9/5 ACE: 163
North Carolina University
11-15 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes
The analog years I am using are in which La Nina is fading away and going into El Nino. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain with another La Nina, El Nino, or Neutral.
Based on this, the analog years are 1876, 1899, 1957, 1963, 1997, 2006, 2009, and 2018. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), New Zealand Warm Pool (NZWP), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR). Here is the ocean temperature anomaly map. It is from Tropical Tidbits.
Analog Years For 2023 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1876 (5/4/2 57 11.4)
1899 (10/5/2 151 15.1)
1957 (8/3/2 79 9.8)
1963 (10/7/3 112 11.2)
1997 (8/3/1 41 5.1)
2006 (10/5/2 83 8.3)
2009 (9/3/2 53 5.8)
2018 (15/8/2 133 8.8
All of the seasons had major hurricane. The most active is 2018 with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that goes to 1899 with ACE of 151. However, this is before satellite, it is likely 1899 is more active. Any season before satellite should be considered suspect. Even in satellite, some data is rather questionable.
Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.
1876
1876 San Felipe Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Cuba-South Florida Hurricane of 1876 (Hurricane #5)
1899
Tropical Storm #1
1899 Carrabelle Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899 (Hurricane #3)
Hurricane #4
Hurricane #5
1957
Audrey
1963
Cindy
Edith
Flora
Ginny
Helena
1997
Danny
Erika
2006
Alberto
Ernesto
2009
Bill
Ida
2018
Michael
The analog season has some deadly and memorable storms. One of the deadliest hurricanes is Flora, which claimed over 8,000 lives in Cuba. Flora dumped over 150 inches of rain on Cuba, which led to massive flooding. Flora remains one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to this day. San Ciriaco Hurricane is a long lived major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico. It claimed more than 3,800 lives. Flora and San Ciriaco Hurricane remain some of the deadliest Atlantic as of today. The 1899 Tropical Storm #1 dumped heavy rain over a large area in Texas. Hearne got 35 inches of rain. The flooding claimed 284 lives. It was the largest rainfall event prior to Harvey. Hurricane Danny dumped nearly 38 inches of rain in Dauphin Island as it lingered over Alabama. Audrey ravaged East Texas and Southwest Louisiana in June 1957. Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane on the Florida Panhandle. It was at its peak of 160 mph and 919 millibars. I am not suggesting 2023 will see something like Tropical Storm #1 (1899), San Ciriaco Hurricane, Flora, and Michael.
Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms. It was created with QGIS. The hurricane data came from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS).
The Carolinas, Florida Panhandle, and Windward Islands looks to have the most development. I never make landfall predictions. I strongly object to making landfall forecasts this early. I think it is irresponsible to make landfall predictions this early on. Everyone is at equal risk.
Here is a statistical analysis of analog seasons vs all season. It was done with PSPP.
Analog
| Tropical Storm | Mean | 9.38 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 7.01 | |
| Upper Bound | 11.74 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 9.31 | ||
| Median | 9.5 | ||
| Variance | 7.98 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 2.83 | ||
| Minimum | 5 | ||
| Maximum | 15 | ||
| Range | 10 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 2 | ||
| Skewness | 0.76 | ||
| Kurtosis | 2.5 | ||
| Hurricane | Mean | 4.75 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 3.15 | |
| Upper Bound | 6.35 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 4.67 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | ||
| Variance | 3.64 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 1.91 | ||
| Minimum | 3 | ||
| Maximum | 8 | ||
| Range | 5 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 3.5 | ||
| Skewness | 0.8 | ||
| Kurtosis | -0.62 | ||
| Major Hurricane | Mean | 2 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 1.55 | |
| Upper Bound | 2.45 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 2 | ||
| Median | 2 | ||
| Variance | 0.29 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 0.53 | ||
| Minimum | 1 | ||
| Maximum | 3 | ||
| Range | 2 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 0 | ||
| Skewness | 0 | ||
| Kurtosis | 3.5 | ||
| ACE | Mean | 88.54 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 55.29 | |
| Upper Bound | 121.79 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 87.71 | ||
| Median | 81 | ||
| Variance | 1581.66 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 39.77 | ||
| Minimum | 40.9 | ||
| Maximum | 151 | ||
| Range | 110.1 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 73.75 | ||
| Skewness | 0.47 | ||
| Kurtosis | -1.19 |
How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2022.
| Tropical Storm | Mean | 10.35 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 9.61 | |
| Upper Bound | 11.08 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 10.08 | ||
| Median | 10 | ||
| Variance | 21.29 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 4.61 | ||
| Minimum | 1 | ||
| Maximum | 30 | ||
| Range | 29 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 6 | ||
| Skewness | 1.07 | ||
| Kurtosis | 2.28 | ||
| Hurricane | Mean | 5.65 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 5.23 | |
| Upper Bound | 6.08 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 5.55 | ||
| Median | 5 | ||
| Variance | 7.1 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 2.66 | ||
| Minimum | 0 | ||
| Maximum | 15 | ||
| Range | 15 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 3 | ||
| Skewness | 0.7 | ||
| Kurtosis | 0.54 | ||
| Major Hurricane | Mean | 2.07 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 1.81 | |
| Upper Bound | 2.34 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 1.96 | ||
| Median | 2 | ||
| Variance | 2.73 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 1.65 | ||
| Minimum | 0 | ||
| Maximum | 7 | ||
| Range | 7 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 2 | ||
| Skewness | 0.87 | ||
| Kurtosis | 0.24 | ||
| ACE | Mean | 94.49 | |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Mean | Lower Bound | 85.89 | |
| Upper Bound | 103.09 | ||
| 5% Trimmed Mean | 91.09 | ||
| Median | 84.2 | ||
| Variance | 2899.49 | ||
| Std. Deviation | 53.85 | ||
| Minimum | 2.5 | ||
| Maximum | 258.6 | ||
| Range | 256.1 | ||
| Interquartile Range | 72.45 | ||
| Skewness | 0.9 | ||
| Kurtosis | 0.41 |
The 95% Confidence Interval for analog season vs the whole season is wide. Analog seasons generally to edge towards less active. I can use the statistical analysis to come up with a forecast.
What is my prediction for this season?
10 to 15 named storms, likely 12 named storms
3 to 6 hurricanes, likely 5 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 70 to 140 with ACE likely of 80 to 100
Let’s see how my May 2022 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2022 season.
12 to 22 named storms, likely 17 named storms
6 to 14 hurricanes, likely 10 hurricanes
2 to 6 major hurricanes with 4 major hurricanes
ACE is 120 to 200 with ACE likely of 130 to 190
Colorado State University
19/9/4 ACE: 160
Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
18-22 Storms/6-10 Hurricanes/2-4 Major Hurricanes ACE: 140-180
Tropical Storm Risk
18/8/4 ACE: 138
Accuweather
16-20 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 120-150
Crown Weather
21/9/4 ACE: 105-200
The Weather Channel
20/8/4
Weather Tiger
16-23 Tropical Storms/7-11 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 105-200
University of Arizona
14/7/3 ACE: 129
North Carolina University
17-21 Storms/6-9 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes
2022 Actual Number
14 Named Storms
8 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes
95 ACE
The 2022 Hurricane Season was less active than forecasted. The number of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricane were within range. The forecasted ACE was under compared to the actual ACE. There is always room for improvement.
Regardless of forecast, I think 2023 could be an interesting hurricane season. It could be a harry one as I have said in the past. It only takes one to be a devastating season regardless of how inactive or active a season is. 2022 proved well with Fiona and Ian, which is the third costliest season. Only 2017 and 2005 are more costlier than 2022. This is without any adjustment to inflation.
Texas Hurricane 