April 2024 Hurricane Season Forecast

2024 has proven to be a turbulent year. Israel, Sudan, and Ukraine are engulfed in war. The 2020s have been a turbulent decade so far. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2024. Here are other forecasts. ACE is short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Colorado State University
23/11/5 ACE: 210

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
25-30 Tropical Storms/14-16 Hurricanes/6-8 Major Hurricanes ACE: 200-240

Tropical Storm Risk
20/9/4 ACE: 160

Accuweather
20-25 Tropical Storms/8-12 Hurricanes/4-7 Major Hurricanes ACE: 175-225

Crown Weather
25/12/6 ACE: 225

The Weather Channel
24/11/6

Weather Tiger
20-24 Tropical Storms/9-12 Hurricanes/4-7 Major Hurricanes ACE: 160-225

University of Arizona
21/11/5 ACE: 156

North Carolina University
15-20 Tropical Storms/10-12 Hurricanes/3-4 Major Hurricanes

The analog years I am using are in which El Nino is fading away and going into La Nina. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain. In this case, I am more looking at Eastern Equatorial El Nino. I also take into account El Nino Modoki. The warmest water is in the Central to Western Pacific.

El Nino is not the only factor. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), New Zealand Warm Pool (NZWP), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR), Dipole Mode Index (DMI), and Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (TPI IPO). Here is the ocean temperature anomaly map. It is from Tropical Tidbits.

Based on this, the analog years are 1897, 1926, 1931, 1958, 1977, 1983, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016, and 2020

Analog Years For 2024 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1897 (6/3/0 55 9.1)
1926 (11/8/6 230 20.9)
1931 (13/3/1 48 3.7)
1958 (12/7/3 110 9.1)
1977 (6/5/1 25 4.2)
1983 (4/3/1 17 4.4)
1995 (19/11/5 227 12.0)
1998 (14/10/3 182 13.0)
2005 (28/15/7 245 8.8)
2007 (15/6/2 74 4.9)
2010 (19/12/5 166 8.7)
2016 (15/7/4 141 9.4)
2020 (30/13/6 180 6.0)

All of the seasons had major hurricane with the exception of 1897. However, this is before satellite era. It is likely before satellites, the seasons were more active than what is recorded. Any season before satellite should be considered suspect. Even in satellite era, some data is rather questionable. The most active are 2005 and 2020. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that goes to 2005 with ACE of 245. 1926 and 1995 are not far behind.

Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.
1897
Hurricane #1
Hurricane #2
Hurricane #5

1926
1926 Nassau Hurricane
Great Miami Hurricane Of 1926
Great Havana-Bermuda Hurricane Of 1926

1931
Tropical Storm #5
1931 British Honduras Hurricane

1958
Alma
Ella
Helene

1977
Anita

1983
Alicia

1995
Dean
Erin
Luis
Marilyn
Opal
Roxanne

1998
Charley
Earl
Francis
Georges
Mitch

2005
Dennis
Emily
Katrina
Rita
Stan
Vince
Wilma
Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta

2007
Dean
Erin
Felix
Humberto
Noel

2010
Alex
Hermine
Igor
Karl
Matthew
Nicole

2016
Earl
Matthew
Nicole
Otto

2020
Hanna
Laura
Sally
Teddy
Alpha
Beta
Delta
Zeta
Eta
Iota

The analog season have some memorable and deadly storms. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 dumped heavy rain over a large area of Central America. It led to massive flooding that claimed at least 12,000 lives. Mitch is the deadliest since the Great Hurricane of 1780. 1926 has the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. It would likely be the costliest if it happened today. 1931 had the British Honduras Hurricane, which claimed over 2,500 lives. 1958 had Alma and Ella impact Texas with heavy rain and flooding. 1977 had Anita, which was a powerful Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf Of Mexico. Alicia ravaged Southeast Texas inn 1983. 1977 and 1983 were less active seasons. 1995 was an active season with Luis, Marilyn, Opal, and Roxanne. Besides Mitch, there was Georges, which was a long lived and dangerous hurricane. Charley and Francis dumped heavy rain on Texas. 2005 was a brutal year. It can be summed up with Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma. New Orleans was flooded from levee failure, while Mississippi was utterly gutted by monster storm surge. Rita caused a scare in Texas before making landfall on Sabine Pass. Stan dumped heavy rain and flooding in Guatemala and Mexico. Wilma rapidly intensified into the most intense Atlantic hurricane known. Dean and Felix ravaged the Caribbean. Noel proved to be a disaster for Dominican Republic and Haiti. Texas had to contend with Erin and Humberto. Humberto formed quickly right before landfall a year to the day before Ike made landfall in 2008. 2010 had many storms form. Alex was a large storm that dumped heavy rain over Mexico and Texas. Igor was a monster hurricane that tracked across the Atlantic. 2016 had Matthew ravaged Haiti, Florida, and North Carolina with strong winds, heavy rain, and flooding. 2020 was active during the COVID pandemic. Laura and Delta ravaged Southwest Louisiana within weeks of each other. Zeta went over New Orleans as a Category 1 hurricane. Eta and Iota were cruel to Nicaragua. They made landfall weeks apart of each other. I am not suggesting 2024 will see another Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, 1931 British Honduras Hurricane, Alicia, Opal, Mitch, Katrina, Wilma, Dean, Alex, Matthew, Laura, or Iota.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms. It was created with QGIS. The hurricane data came from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS).

The Caribbean, Gulf Of Mexico, and Carolina Coasts look to have the most development. I never make landfall predictions. I strongly object to making landfall forecasts this early. I think it is irresponsible to make landfall predictions this early on. Everyone is at equal risk.

Here is a statistical analysis of analog seasons vs all season (1870-2023). It was done with PSPP.

Analog

Tropical Storm	Mean		14.77
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	10.03
		Upper Bound	19.51
	5% Trimmed Mean		14.52
	Median		14
	Variance		61.53
	Std. Deviation		7.84
	Minimum		4
	Maximum		30
	Range		26
	Interquartile Range		10.5
	Skewness		0.68
	Kurtosis		0.1
Hurricane	Mean		7.92
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	5.5
		Upper Bound	10.35
	5% Trimmed Mean		7.8
	Median		7
	Variance		16.08
	Std. Deviation		4.01
	Minimum		3
	Maximum		15
	Range		12
	Interquartile Range		7.5
	Skewness		0.3
	Kurtosis		-1.04
Major Hurricane	Mean		3.38
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	2
		Upper Bound	4.77
	5% Trimmed Mean		3.37
	Median		3
	Variance		5.26
	Std. Deviation		2.29
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		7
	Range		7
	Interquartile Range		4.5
	Skewness		0.08
	Kurtosis		-1.38
ACE	Mean		130.69
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	81.71
		Upper Bound	179.68
	5% Trimmed Mean		130.62
	Median		141.3
	Variance		6570.41
	Std. Deviation		81.06
	Minimum		17.4
	Maximum		245.3
	Range		227.9
	Interquartile Range		153.3
	Skewness		-0.03
	Kurtosis		-1.54
ACE/Storm	Mean		8.78
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	5.94
		Upper Bound	11.61
	5% Trimmed Mean		8.39
	Median		8.76
	Variance		21.98
	Std. Deviation		4.69
	Minimum		3.68
	Maximum		20.87
	Range		17.2
	Interquartile Range		6.05
	Skewness		1.42
	Kurtosis		2.81

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2023.

Tropical Storm	Mean		10.41
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	9.67
		Upper Bound	11.15
	5% Trimmed Mean		10.14
	Median		10
	Variance		21.76
	Std. Deviation		4.66
	Minimum		1
	Maximum		30
	Range		29
	Interquartile Range		6
	Skewness		1.05
	Kurtosis		2.09
Hurricane	Mean		5.66
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	5.24
		Upper Bound	6.09
	5% Trimmed Mean		5.55
	Median		5
	Variance		7.06
	Std. Deviation		2.66
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		15
	Range		15
	Interquartile Range		3
	Skewness		0.69
	Kurtosis		0.54
Major Hurricane	Mean		2.08
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	1.82
		Upper Bound	2.34
	5% Trimmed Mean		1.97
	Median		2
	Variance		2.71
	Std. Deviation		1.65
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		7
	Range		7
	Interquartile Range		2
	Skewness		0.86
	Kurtosis		0.24
ACE	Mean		94.82
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	86.25
		Upper Bound	103.39
	5% Trimmed Mean		91.46
	Median		84.25
	Variance		2897.5
	Std. Deviation		53.83
	Minimum		2.5
	Maximum		258.6
	Range		256.1
	Interquartile Range		74.22
	Skewness		0.88
	Kurtosis		0.37
ACE/Storm	Mean		9.2
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	8.58
		Upper Bound	9.82
	5% Trimmed Mean		9
	Median		8.6
	Variance		15.13
	Std. Deviation		3.89
	Minimum		1.83
	Maximum		21.68
	Range		19.86
	Interquartile Range		5.58
	Skewness		0.8
	Kurtosis		0.56

The 95% Confidence Interval for analog season vs the whole season is wide. Analog seasons are more active. It is largely due to many of the analog years being very active. I can use the statistical analysis to come up with a forecast.

What is my prediction for this season?
20 to 30 named storms, likely 25 named storms
10 to 16 hurricanes, likely 13 hurricanes
3 to 7 major hurricanes with 5 major hurricanes
ACE is 180 to 250 with ACE likely of 190 to 230

Let’s see how my April 2023 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2023 season.

10 to 15 named storms, likely 12 named storms
3 to 6 hurricanes, likely 5 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 70 to 140 with ACE likely of 80 to 100

Colorado State University
13/6/2 ACE: 100

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10-14 Storms/5-7 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 70-110

Tropical Storm Risk
12/6/2 ACE: 84

Accuweather
11-15 Storms/4-8 Hurricanes/1-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 75-105

Crown Weather
12/6/2 ACE: 90

The Weather Channel
15/7/3

Weather Tiger
13-18 Tropical Storms/5-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 65-135

University of Arizona
19/9/5 ACE: 163

North Carolina University
11-15 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes

2023 Actual Number
20 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
146 ACE

Many including myself got the forecast off. The 2023 Hurricane Season was more active than forecasted. Even with a strong El Nino, 2023 was quite an active season. It shows, El Nino is not the only factor. The Atlantic water was quite warm in 2023.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2024 could be an interesting hurricane season. It could be a harry one as I have said in the past. It only takes one to be a devastating season regardless of how inactive or active a season is. I would not be surprised if 2024 is an active season. I predict we could see 2 to 4 Category 5 hurricanes this season.

Intensifying Idalia

Hurricane Idalia over the Gulf of Mexico.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL102023#tab2

Hurricane Franklin is the first major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic Season. It is a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds as of 11:00 PM AST per National Hurricane Center (NHC). It peaked as a Category 4 hurricane. However, it is over the open Atlantic and poses little threat at this time. Right now, my main concern is Hurricane Idalia. It is a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds as of 11:00 PM EDT. However, looking at satellite images, there is a tiny eye and circular shape suggests it is likely intensifying. Here is the intensity forecast model from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

Most forecast models have Idalia as a Category 3 hurricane with one as a Category 4 hurricane. I consider intensity forecast models unreliable. I think Idalia is going to be a Category 4 hurricane by morning. It may even be a Category 5 hurricane. The water is quite warm. Here is a Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity for the Gulf of Mexico. It is courtesy of Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA).

Idalia is over water that could support 880 millibars and winds of over 175 mph (150 knots). It does have the potential to be a Category 5 hurricane if conditions are right. I am most inclined to predict that Idalia will be a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. The most pressing is where Idalia will make landfall. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most forecast models have Idalia heading towards the Big Bend of Florida. Big Bend is prone to storm surge due to large area of shallow water and shape of a funnel. Bays are vulnerable to storm surge as they have shallow water and funnel shape. Think Gavleston or Tampa Bay, which is one of the high risk area for storm surge. New Orleans, Houston, New York City, and Bangladesh are high risk for storm surge. Here is a storm surge map from the NHC. It is a potential storm surge flooding map.

Some areas could see up to 15 feet storm surge, which is quite high. It could flood land areas with over 9 feet of water. That is dangerous storm surge. Anyone in the storm surge area should evacuate. Another factor for storm surge is size of storm and forward speed. Idalia is moving at 18 mph, which is rather fast. The speed could prevent Idalia from becoming a Category 5 hurricane. It is also a smaller hurricane. Here is a map wind radii for Idalia from NHC.

Tropical storm force winds extend up to 160 miles. Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles from the eye. Parts of Florida are already dealing with tropical storm force wind. The smaller size and relative fast speed of Idalia could make it less of a storm surge threat. Regardless, storm surge will be a dangerous threat for Florida.

Hurricane Idalia is going to be a dangerous hurricane. Anyone in storm surge area should of evacuated by now. Anyone inland should hide from the wind. It is going to be a rough ride.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Idalia will likely be Category 4 or 5 hurricane by morning.
-Idalia will likely make landfall on Florida by morning and near peak.
-Mostly will be a storm surge and wind event.

Tropical Depression 9 Or Future Harold?

Tropical Depression 9 over Gulf of Mexico.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=gm

The Atlantic has heated up after it was dormant. Emily, Franklin, and Gert have formed. Only Franklin remains, but is out in the Caribbean. This brings us to Tropical Depression 9 or future Harold. Interestingly, Harold replaces Harvey, which ravaged Texas with heavy rain and flooding in 2017. I do not think this will be a repeat of Harvey by any stretch. Tropical Depression 9 is a tropical depression as of 10:00 PM CDT per National Hurricane Center. It has been hot and dry in Texas, so any rain is welcome. That leads to the question, where does Tropical Depression 9 go?

Here is the most recent forecast model for where Harold will go. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most of the forecast models have Tropical Depression 9 heading towards South Texas. Some go far south as the mouth of Rio Grande River to far north as Corpus Christi. Most models have it going towards South Texas. There is a remote chance it could go towards Southeast Texas, but that is unlikely at this time. It currently remains a tropical depression. Here is the intensity forecast model from NCAR.

Most forecast models keep it as a tropical storm for a short time. One has it as a Category 1 hurricane, which keeps at as one far inland. The Gulf of Mexico is warm and can support Category 5 hurricane if conditions are right. Here is a Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity for the Gulf of Mexico. It is courtesy of Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA).

I would not be surprised if Harold becomes a strong tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane before landfall. A major hurricane is unlikely as it is moving rather quickly. That would keep a lid on any further intensification. Tropical Depression 9 also has to deal with strong wind shear. Here is a wind shear map from CIMSS.

Wind shear and fast motion speed are likely to keep Harold as a tropical storm to Category 1 hurricane before landfall. Tropical cyclones have rapidly intensified right before making landfall on Texas. Something to not rule out with Harold. The satellite image of Tropical Depression 9 suggests it could be intensifying. There is also lightning near the center of future Harold. Here is a lightning flash map from GOES-East CONUS – Geostationary Lightning Mapper.

There was plenty of lightning near the center. It appears to have tapered off in terms of lighting. The circular shape also suggests it could be a tropical storm later tonight. The bandings around the tropical depression is also a sign Harold is about to form soon.

As with tropical systems, they often bring rain. How much rain will fall from future Harold? Here are rainfall forecast totals between August 21, 2023 to August 28, 2023. They are from Weather.US. The forecast models are:
GFS (American)
EURO (European)
ICON (Germany)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)
JMA (Japanese)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)

The Korean has the highest amount of 19.70 inches of rain. The Japanese has the lowest amount of 4.80 inches. Quite a wide range forecast in terms of rainfall. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. I look at rainfall total forecast.

Mean	9.40
Median	7.50
Standard Deviation	5.00
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound	4.78
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound	14.02

The mean rainfall total is 9.40 inches with median of 7.50 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 4.78 inches to 14.02 inches. It is probable the rainfall total will be somewhere between 4 to 14 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be below 4 inches or over 14 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the rainfall total is probably going to be somewhere between 4 to 14 inches of rain. More than likely, it is over 4 inches of rain.

I suspect most areas will see between 1 to 3 inches of rain. Some areas could get over 6 inches. I would not rule out 12 inches or higher once it is all over. All the forecast models do have rain over Southeast Texas. The Japanese has the highest with 4 inches of rain in the next 7 days.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Tropical Depression 9 will be Harold by morning.
-Tropical Depression 9/Harold is likely to make landfall on South Texas.
-Most areas in Texas will see rain.

Historic Hillary

Hurricane Hilary at 19.1°N – 112.4°W
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=EP092023#homePageLink

Hurricane Hillary is a monster hurricane as a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds as of 10:00 PM CST. It is quite large for a East Pacific Hurricane as it it has tropical storm force winds extending up to 255 miles! Most East Pacific hurricanes are small as the basin is smaller than Atlantic or West Pacific. The East Pacific produces many hurricanes due to warm water, less dry air, and North American Monsoon. Monsoon spin up thunderstorm clouds. In fact, it is the second most active basin in the world. Only the West Pacific is most active. Typhoon is for West Pacific, which is west of the International Date Line.

Here is the most recent forecast model for where Hillary will go. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most of the forecast models have Hillary heading northwards towards Baja California. From there, it could remain over Baja California or stay over the ocean and head towards Southern California. How intense will Hillary be by the time it comes close to Southern California? Here is an intensity forecast model from NCAR.

Most forecast models have Hillary weakening in 24 hours. The NVGI has it intensifying further. I would not be surprised if Hillary does intensify further. I think Hillary is most likely to weaken further. Most forecast models have Hillary as a tropical storm before it hits Southern California.

Tropical cyclones have hit Southern California in the past. It last happened in 1939, when it made landfall around Long Beach. It has been dubbed “El Cordonazo” or “The Lash of St Francis”, which is named by Mexican fishermen. The once hurricane dumped heavy rain over large area of Southern California. Some areas saw nearly a foot of rain. The storm claimed nearly 100 lives. San Diego was hit by a hurricane in 1858. The only recorded hurricane to hit California. It is very likely California has been hit by hurricanes prior to 1858. It reportedly dump heavy rain over a large area of Southern California. Both occurred during El Nino. East Pacific is more active during El Nino.

Tropical cyclones rarely hit California because the water is cooler, compared to the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Tropical cyclone remnants have impacted California and the American Southwest. They often provide beneficial rains.

Here are rainfall forecast totals between August 18, 2023 to August 28, 2023. They are from Weather.US. The forecast models are:
GFS (American)
EURO (European)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)
JMA (Japanese)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)

GFS (American)

EURO (European)

GDAPS/UM (South Korea)

JMA (Japanese)

GEM (Canadian)

CMA (China)

The Canadian has the highest amount of 11.00 inches of rain. The Japanese has the lowest amount of 6.00 inches. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. I look at rainfall total forecast.

Mean	8.38
Median	8.15
Standard Deviation	1.82
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound	6.47
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound	10.30

The mean rainfall total is 8.38 inches with median of 8.15 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 6.47 inches to 10.30 inches. It is probable the rainfall total will be somewhere between 7 to 11 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be below 7 inches or over 11 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the rainfall total is probably going to be somewhere between 7 to 11 inches of rain. More than likely, it is over 7 inches of rain.

I would not be surprised if some areas see over a foot rain. It would mostly likely be in the mountainous areas of California and Arizona. Mountainous areas on windward side are very wet. In fact, some of the wettest areas in the world are in mountainous areas.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Hillary is likely to weaken overnight.
-Hillary could make landfall on Baja California.
-Hillary is likely to make landfall as a tropical storm on Southern California.

April 2023 Hurricane Season Forecast

Hurricane Ian just made landfall on Florida on September 28, 2022.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/Sandwich/

2023 is proven to be just a turbulent year, like this decade so far. Sudan and Ukraine are engulfed in war. The 2020s has been a turbulent decade so far. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2023. Here are other forecasts. ACE is short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Colorado State University
13/6/2 ACE: 100

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10-14 Storms/5-7 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 70-110

Tropical Storm Risk
12/6/2 ACE: 84

Accuweather
11-15 Storms/4-8 Hurricanes/1-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 75-105

Crown Weather
12/6/2 ACE: 90

The Weather Channel
15/7/3

Weather Tiger
13-18 Tropical Storms/5-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 65-135

University of Arizona
19/9/5 ACE: 163

North Carolina University
11-15 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/2-3 Major Hurricanes

The analog years I am using are in which La Nina is fading away and going into El Nino. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain with another La Nina, El Nino, or Neutral.

Based on this, the analog years are 1876, 1899, 1957, 1963, 1997, 2006, 2009, and 2018. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), New Zealand Warm Pool (NZWP), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR). Here is the ocean temperature anomaly map. It is from Tropical Tidbits.

Analog Years For 2023 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1876 (5/4/2 57 11.4)
1899 (10/5/2 151 15.1)
1957 (8/3/2 79 9.8)
1963 (10/7/3 112 11.2)
1997 (8/3/1 41 5.1)
2006 (10/5/2 83 8.3)
2009 (9/3/2 53 5.8)
2018 (15/8/2 133 8.8

All of the seasons had major hurricane. The most active is 2018 with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that goes to 1899 with ACE of 151. However, this is before satellite, it is likely 1899 is more active. Any season before satellite should be considered suspect. Even in satellite, some data is rather questionable.

Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.

1876
1876 San Felipe Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Cuba-South Florida Hurricane of 1876 (Hurricane #5)

1899
Tropical Storm #1
1899 Carrabelle Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899 (Hurricane #3)
Hurricane #4
Hurricane #5

1957
Audrey

1963
Cindy
Edith
Flora
Ginny
Helena

1997
Danny
Erika

2006
Alberto
Ernesto

2009
Bill
Ida

2018
Michael

The analog season has some deadly and memorable storms. One of the deadliest hurricanes is Flora, which claimed over 8,000 lives in Cuba. Flora dumped over 150 inches of rain on Cuba, which led to massive flooding. Flora remains one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to this day. San Ciriaco Hurricane is a long lived major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico. It claimed more than 3,800 lives. Flora and San Ciriaco Hurricane remain some of the deadliest Atlantic as of today. The 1899 Tropical Storm #1 dumped heavy rain over a large area in Texas. Hearne got 35 inches of rain. The flooding claimed 284 lives. It was the largest rainfall event prior to Harvey. Hurricane Danny dumped nearly 38 inches of rain in Dauphin Island as it lingered over Alabama. Audrey ravaged East Texas and Southwest Louisiana in June 1957. Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane on the Florida Panhandle. It was at its peak of 160 mph and 919 millibars. I am not suggesting 2023 will see something like Tropical Storm #1 (1899), San Ciriaco Hurricane, Flora, and Michael.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms. It was created with QGIS. The hurricane data came from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS).

The Carolinas, Florida Panhandle, and Windward Islands looks to have the most development. I never make landfall predictions. I strongly object to making landfall forecasts this early. I think it is irresponsible to make landfall predictions this early on. Everyone is at equal risk.

Here is a statistical analysis of analog seasons vs all season. It was done with PSPP.

Analog

Tropical Storm	Mean		9.38
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	7.01
		Upper Bound	11.74
	5% Trimmed Mean		9.31
	Median		9.5
	Variance		7.98
	Std. Deviation		2.83
	Minimum		5
	Maximum		15
	Range		10
	Interquartile Range		2
	Skewness		0.76
	Kurtosis		2.5
Hurricane	Mean		4.75
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	3.15
		Upper Bound	6.35
	5% Trimmed Mean		4.67
	Median		4.5
	Variance		3.64
	Std. Deviation		1.91
	Minimum		3
	Maximum		8
	Range		5
	Interquartile Range		3.5
	Skewness		0.8
	Kurtosis		-0.62
Major Hurricane	Mean		2
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	1.55
		Upper Bound	2.45
	5% Trimmed Mean		2
	Median		2
	Variance		0.29
	Std. Deviation		0.53
	Minimum		1
	Maximum		3
	Range		2
	Interquartile Range		0
	Skewness		0
	Kurtosis		3.5
ACE	Mean		88.54
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	55.29
		Upper Bound	121.79
	5% Trimmed Mean		87.71
	Median		81
	Variance		1581.66
	Std. Deviation		39.77
	Minimum		40.9
	Maximum		151
	Range		110.1
	Interquartile Range		73.75
	Skewness		0.47
	Kurtosis		-1.19

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2022.

Tropical Storm	Mean		10.35
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	9.61
		Upper Bound	11.08
	5% Trimmed Mean		10.08
	Median		10
	Variance		21.29
	Std. Deviation		4.61
	Minimum		1
	Maximum		30
	Range		29
	Interquartile Range		6
	Skewness		1.07
	Kurtosis		2.28
Hurricane	Mean		5.65
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	5.23
		Upper Bound	6.08
	5% Trimmed Mean		5.55
	Median		5
	Variance		7.1
	Std. Deviation		2.66
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		15
	Range		15
	Interquartile Range		3
	Skewness		0.7
	Kurtosis		0.54
Major Hurricane	Mean		2.07
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	1.81
		Upper Bound	2.34
	5% Trimmed Mean		1.96
	Median		2
	Variance		2.73
	Std. Deviation		1.65
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		7
	Range		7
	Interquartile Range		2
	Skewness		0.87
	Kurtosis		0.24
ACE	Mean		94.49
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	85.89
		Upper Bound	103.09
	5% Trimmed Mean		91.09
	Median		84.2
	Variance		2899.49
	Std. Deviation		53.85
	Minimum		2.5
	Maximum		258.6
	Range		256.1
	Interquartile Range		72.45
	Skewness		0.9
	Kurtosis		0.41

The 95% Confidence Interval for analog season vs the whole season is wide. Analog seasons generally to edge towards less active. I can use the statistical analysis to come up with a forecast.

What is my prediction for this season?
10 to 15 named storms, likely 12 named storms
3 to 6 hurricanes, likely 5 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 70 to 140 with ACE likely of 80 to 100

Let’s see how my May 2022 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2022 season.

12 to 22 named storms, likely 17 named storms
6 to 14 hurricanes, likely 10 hurricanes
2 to 6 major hurricanes with 4 major hurricanes
ACE is 120 to 200 with ACE likely of 130 to 190

Colorado State University
19/9/4 ACE: 160

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
18-22 Storms/6-10 Hurricanes/2-4 Major Hurricanes ACE: 140-180

Tropical Storm Risk
18/8/4 ACE: 138

Accuweather
16-20 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 120-150

Crown Weather
21/9/4 ACE: 105-200

The Weather Channel
20/8/4

Weather Tiger
16-23 Tropical Storms/7-11 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 105-200

University of Arizona
14/7/3 ACE: 129

North Carolina University
17-21 Storms/6-9 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes

2022 Actual Number
14 Named Storms
8 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes
95 ACE

The 2022 Hurricane Season was less active than forecasted. The number of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricane were within range. The forecasted ACE was under compared to the actual ACE. There is always room for improvement.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2023 could be an interesting hurricane season. It could be a harry one as I have said in the past. It only takes one to be a devastating season regardless of how inactive or active a season is. 2022 proved well with Fiona and Ian, which is the third costliest season. Only 2017 and 2005 are more costlier than 2022. This is without any adjustment to inflation.

Hurricane Ian, A Sense Of Deja Vu

Hurricane Ian just made landfall on Florida on September 28, 2022.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/Sandwich/

Hurricane Ian made landfall at 3:05 PM EDT on Cayo Costa and near Pirate Harbor at around at 4:35 PM EDT. Hurricane Ian made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds at Cayo Costa. Ian peaked at 155 mph winds and central pressure of 936 millibars. I would not be surprised if Ian gets upgraded to Category 5. Hurricane Ian gives a sense of deja vu with Hurricane Charley. Hurricane Charley made landfall on August 13, 2004.

Hurricane Charley from NOAA.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satmet.2012-Feb-14/modules/wild_weather/charley/charley.html

Hurricane Charley made landfall at the almost same location where Hurricane Ian did. Even the landfall times are almost the same at 3:45 PM and 4:45 PM. Both had frontal boundary that impacted steering motion for them. Talk about eerily similar. However, there are differences between Charley and Ian.

Hurricane Ian is stronger with 155 mph winds and central pressure of 936 millibars at peak. Hurricane Charley peaked at 150 mph and 941 millibars. Charley is much smaller with hurricane force winds extending up to 25 miles from the eye. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles for Charley. Ian has hurricane force winds extending up to 45 miles from the eye. Ian has large tropical storm force winds extending up to 175 miles. Charley moved faster compared to Ian. The storm surge is much higher in Ian than in Charley. In terms of rain amount, Charley dumped 4 to 8 inches of rain. Ian has dumped over 12 inches of rain and still falling as of tonight (September 28, 2022). Charley is not a flood event, while Ian is looking to be a flood event.

Here are rainfall forecast totals between September 28, 2022 to October 6, 2022. They are from Weather.US. The forecast models are:
GFS (American)
EURO (European)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)

GFS (American)

EURO (European)

GDAPS/UM (South Korean)

GEM (Canadian)

CMA (Chinese)

The Canadian has the lowest amount of 16.80 inches of rain. The Korean has the highest at 42.20 inches of rain. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. I look at rainfall total forecast.

Mean	24.92
Median	20.4
Standard Deviation	10.51
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound	11.87
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound	37.97

The mean rainfall total is 24.92 inches with median of 20.40 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 11.87 inches to 37.97 inches. It is probable the rainfall total will be somewhere between 12 to 38 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be below 12 inches or over 50 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the rainfall total is probably going to be somewhere between 12 to 38 inches of rain. More than likely, it is now over 12 inches of rain.

I would not be surprised if some areas in Florida see over 40 inches of rain from Hurricane Ian. If Hurricane Ian was to dump 40 inches or greater, that would be a record for Florida. The highest known 24 hour rainfall total for Florida is 38.70 inches in Yankeetown! The total rainfall from Easy is 45.20 inches, making it Florida’s wettest tropical system. It is probable some areas could of had higher rainfall totals from Easy. Ian could challenge Easy in terms of rainfall.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Ian is likely to weaken overnight.
-Ian is likely to be more of a heavy rain even for inland and East Coast of Florda.
-Storm surge will remain a problem for Florida.

Florida Under The Gun From Hurricane Ian

GOES-East of Southeastern US in Band 13.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=se

Hurricane Ian has passed Cuba. It made landfall at around 4:30 AM Eastern Time in the Pinar del Rio province as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. The highest wind on land is around 106 mph with gusts of 160 to 175 mph. The hurricane overwhelmed the Cuban power grid, which caused it to collapse. All of Cuba is out of power as of tonight. No words on casualties yet in Cuba.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the eye of Hurricane Ian is over Dry Tortuga as of 10:00 PM Eastern Time. It is a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds and central pressure of 947 millibars. Where does Ian go? Here is the forecast model from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most forecast models have a southward trend compared to yesterday’s forecast model. It look like Tampa Bay was in the bull’s eye.

Hurricane Ian could make landfall south of Tampa Bay. That does not mean Tampa Bay is out of the woods yet. Forecast models are subject to change. Ian could make landfall between north to south of Tampa Bay. As Ian remains over the Gulf of Mexico, how strong will Ian be before it makes landfall? It is also from NCAR.

Most forecast models keep Ian as a Category 3 hurricane with one having it as a Category 4 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Ian intensifies again as strong as Category 5 hurricane. I think it will likely be a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph. It will likely make landfall somewhere along the Florida as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.

Here are infrared satellite and Doppler radar simulation of what Hurricane Ian could look like upon landfall. They are from Tropical Tidbits. The first one is simulated infrared from Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) and second one is Doppler radar simulation from Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic (HMON).

The infrared simulation has a large Hurricane Ian that has intensified. It is interacting with the cold front. The Doppler radar simulation has a central pressure of 945 millibars with winds of around 125 mph. Here is a wind speed of Hurricane Ian upon landfall from HMON.

The HMON forecast model has a large Hurricane Ian making landfall. A large hurricane is likely to produce higher storm surge. Large storm surge would be a severe problem for Florida. Many areas in Florida would experience winds ranging from 60 to 90 mph with gusts of 90 mph to 144 mph. Keep in mind, there are just forecast models for Hurricane Ian.

Florida better be prepared for the worst from Hurricane Ian. It is going to be a long few days for Florida.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Ian is likely to undergo rapid intensification to a Category 4 hurricane.
-Ian will make landfall somewhere along the West Coast of Florida on Wednesday evening or night.
-Storm surge will likely very damaging for Florida.

Harvey: 5 Years Later

It is hard to believe, it has been five years since Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Port Aransas as a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds. So much has happened since Harvey from COVID-19 Pandemic to Ukraine War. Harvey is the first major hurricane to make landfall on America since Wilma on October 24, 2005. Harvey made landfall on August 25, 2017. That is 43,23 days apart or 11 years, 10 months, 1 day or 142 months apart!

South Texas is hammered by strong wind, storm surge, and heavy rain. It packs a devastating punch. It is mainly along the coast in the Port Aransas area.

Port Aransas after Hurricane Harvey.
https://www.weather.gov/crp/hurricane_harvey

Once Harvey made landfall, it starts to weaken. Harvey is lingering over Texas. Large thunderstorms form near the center on the afternoon and evening of August 26, 2022. The large area of thunderstorms move toward Houston.

Doppler radar of Hurricane Harvey from National Weather Service.

The thunderstorms go over Houston area dumping heavy rain on the night of August 26, 2017 to the small hours of August 27, 2017. Heavy rain falls over and over on the Houston area.

NWS HGX Radar Showing Heavy Rain Falling Over the Area along with Active Warnings @ 4:07AM on 8/27/17
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/hurricaneharvey

Houston area is flooded. Large areas receive 15 to 35 inches of rain from Harvey! Many houses and buildings are flooded as bayous and rivers are overflowing from heavy rain. Streets and freeways are flooded.

Flooding near Downtown Houston.
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/hurricaneharvey

Heavy rain continues to ravage Southeast Texas as Harvey lingers over Texas. Then Harvey exits Texas and goes over the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain falls over East Texas. Beaumont gets over 31 inches of rain including over 26 inches in a single calendar day on August 29, 2017!

I-10 at Jefferson/Chambers County Line via Dade Phelan
https://www.weather.gov/hgx/hurricaneharvey

Many areas saw over 30 inches of rain from Harvey. The highest recorded is 60.58 inches of rain in Nederland. Some areas likely got over 60 inches of rain. A Personal Weather Station (PWS) in Baytown recorded over 66 inches of rain during Harvey from August 25-31, 2017. The August 2017 total for that station is over 74 inches! I would not be surprised if some areas got up to 80 inches of rain from Harvey.

Once Harvey passed, it did $125 billion in damage, which is comparable to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. 103 people lost their life from Harvey in Texas. It is the deadliest Texas hurricane since 1919. The 1919 Florida Keys hurricane claimed at least 284 lives in Texas. It is likely up to 1,000 people died. It is probable more people died during Harvey, but were not counted.

May 2022 Hurricane Season Forecast

Image credit: European Space Agency

2022 is proven to be just a turbulent year, like 2020 and 2021. Ukraine is engulfed in a war with Russia. COVID-19 remains a problem as it is showing signs of subsiding. The 2020s has been a turbulent decade so far. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2022. Here are other forecasts. ACE is short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Colorado State University
19/9/4 ACE: 160

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
18-22 Storms/6-10 Hurricanes/2-4 Major Hurricanes ACE: 140-180

Tropical Storm Risk
18/8/4 ACE: 138

Accuweather
16-20 Storms/6-8 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 120-150

Crown Weather
21/9/4 ACE: 105-200

The Weather Channel
20/8/4

Weather Tiger
16-23 Tropical Storms/7-11 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 105-200

University of Arizona
14/7/3 ACE: 129

North Carolina University
17-21 Storms/6-9 Hurricanes/3-5 Major Hurricanes

The analog years I am using are in which we are in a second year or greater La Nina year. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain with another La Nina, El Nino, or Neutral.

Based on this, the analog years are 1875, 1876, 1880, 1895, 1899, 1937, 1950, 1956, 1957, 1962, 1963, 1985, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2009, 2012. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), New Zealand Warm Pool (NZWP), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR). Here is the ocean temperature anomaly map. It is from Tropical Tidbits.

Analog Years For 2022 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1875 (6/5/1 73 12.1)
1876 (5/4/2 57 11.4)
1880 (11/9/2 131 11.9)
1895 (6/2/0 69 11.5)
1899 (10/5/2 151 15.1)
1937 (11/4/1 66 6.0)
1950 (16/11/6 211 13.2)
1956 (12/4/1 57 4.7)
1957 (8/3/2 79 9.8)
1962 (7/4/0 51 7.2)
1963 (10/7/3 112 11.2)
1985 (11/7/3 88 8.0)
1997 (8/3/1 41 5.1)
2000 (15/8/3 119 7.9)
2001 (15/9/4 110 7.3)
2009 (9/3/2 53 5.8)
2012 (19/10/2 133 7.0)

All of the seasons had major hurricane, except 1895 and 1962. The most active is 2012 with 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. However, in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), that goes to 1950. The least active is 1895 which only had 2 hurricanes and no major hurricanes. However, 1895 is before satellite. After 1966, the least active is 1997 with 3 hurricane and 1 major hurricane. Any season before satellite should be considered suspect. Even in satellite, some data is rather questionable.

Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.

1875
Indianola Hurricane (Hurricane #3)

1876
1876 San Felipe Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Cuba-South Florida Hurricane of 1876 (Hurricane #5)

1880
Hurricane #2
Hurricane #4

1895
Hurricane #2
Hurricane #5

1899
Tropical Storm #1
1899 Carrabelle Hurricane (Hurricane #2)
Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899 (Hurricane #3)
Hurricane #4
Hurricane #5

1937
Tropical Storm #3

1950
Able
Baker
Dog
Easy
King

1956
Betsy
Flossy
Greta

1957
Audrey

1962
Daisy
Ella

1963
Cindy
Edith
Flora
Ginny
Helena

1985
Elena
Gloria
Juan
Kate

1997
Danny
Erika

2000
Gordon
Keith

2001
Allison
Iris
Michelle

2009
Ida

2012
Isaac
Sandy

The analog season has some deadly and memorable storms. One of the deadliest hurricanes is Flora, which claimed over 8,000 lives in Cuba. Flora dumped over 150 inches of rain on Cuba, which led to massive flooding. San Ciriaco Hurricane is a long lived major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico. It claimed more than 3,800 lives. Flora and San Ciriaco Hurricane remain some of the deadliest Atlantic as of today. Before Indianola was destroyed in 1886 by the 1886 Indianola Hurricane, Indianola was ravaged by Indianola Hurricane in 1875. Some produced heavy rain and flooding from Tropical Storm #1 (1899), Easy, Cindy, and Allison. The 1899 Tropical Storm #1 dumped heavy rain over a large area in Texas. Hearne got 35 inches of rain. The flooding claimed 284 lives. It was the largest rainfall event prior to Harvey. Hurricane Danny dumped nearly 38 inches of rain in Dauphin Island as it lingered over Alabama. Allison dumped 40 inches of rain in a 5 day span including 28 inches in 12 hours in Northeast Houston. The analog seasons were not kind to Texas. It also has Audrey, which ravaged East Texas and Southwest Louisiana in June 1957. It was also not kind with the Eastern US. Gloria and Sandy ravaged the Northeast, including New York City. Sandy produced monster storm surge for New York and New Jersey. I am not suggesting 2022 will see something like 1875 Indianola, Tropical Storm #1 (1899), San Ciriaco Hurricane, Flora, Elena, Juan, Kate, Danny, Allison, and Sandy.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms. It was created with QGIS. The hurricane data came from International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS).

The Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeastern US looks to have the most development. Sames goes with around the Windward Islands and Western Caribbean. I never make landfall predictions. I strongly object to making landfall forecasts this early. I think it is irresponsible to make landfall predictions this early on. Everyone is at equal risk.

Here is a statistical analysis of analog seasons vs all season. It was done with PSPP.

Analog

Tropical Storm		Mean		10.53
		95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	8.52
			Upper Bound	12.54
		5% Trimmed Mean		10.37
		Median		10
		Variance		15.26
		Std. Deviation		3.91
		Minimum		5
		Maximum		19
		Range		14
		Interquartile Range		6
		Skewness		0.62
		Kurtosis		-0.19
Hurricane		Mean		5.76
		95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	4.33
			Upper Bound	7.2
		5% Trimmed Mean		5.68
		Median		5
		Variance		7.82
		Std. Deviation		2.8
		Minimum		2
		Maximum		11
		Range		9
		Interquartile Range		5
		Skewness		0.53
		Kurtosis		-1.07
Major Hurricane		Mean		2.06
		95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	1.3
			Upper Bound	2.82
		5% Trimmed Mean		1.95
		Median		2
		Variance		2.18
		Std. Deviation		1.48
		Minimum		0
		Maximum		6
		Range		6
		Interquartile Range		2
		Skewness		1.07
		Kurtosis		2.05
ACE		Mean		94.06
		95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	70.91
			Upper Bound	117.21
		5% Trimmed Mean		90.5
		Median		78.7
		Variance		2026.7
		Std. Deviation		45.02
		Minimum		40.9
		Maximum		211.3
		Range		170.4
		Interquartile Range		68.2
		Skewness		1.14
		Kurtosis		1.3

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2021.

Tropical Storm	Mean		10.32
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	9.58
		Upper Bound	11.06
	5% Trimmed Mean		10.05
	Median		10
	Variance		21.35
	Std. Deviation		4.62
	Minimum		1
	Maximum		30
	Range		29
	Interquartile Range		6
	Skewness		1.09
	Kurtosis		2.31
Hurricane	Mean		5.64
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	5.21
		Upper Bound	6.07
	5% Trimmed Mean		5.53
	Median		5
	Variance		7.11
	Std. Deviation		2.67
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		15
	Range		15
	Interquartile Range		3
	Skewness		0.71
	Kurtosis		0.56
Major Hurricane	Mean		2.07
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	1.81
		Upper Bound	2.34
	5% Trimmed Mean		1.96
	Median		2
	Variance		2.74
	Std. Deviation		1.66
	Minimum		0
	Maximum		7
	Range		7
	Interquartile Range		2
	Skewness		0.87
	Kurtosis		0.22
ACE	Mean		94.48
	95% Confidence Interval for Mean	Lower Bound	85.83
		Upper Bound	103.14
	5% Trimmed Mean		91.08
	Median		83.85
	Variance		2918.69
	Std. Deviation		54.02
	Minimum		2.5
	Maximum		258.6
	Range		256.1
	Interquartile Range		73.77
	Skewness		0.89
	Kurtosis		0.38

The 95% Confidence Interval for analog season vs the whole season is wide. Analog seasons could either be inactive or active. Analog seasons are above average compared to the whole season.

What is my prediction for this season?
12 to 22 named storms, likely 17 named storms
6 to 14 hurricanes, likely 10 hurricanes
2 to 6 major hurricanes with 4 major hurricanes
ACE is 120 to 200 with ACE likely of 130 to 190

Let’s see how my May 2021 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2021 season.

14 to 22 named storms, likely 17 named storms
6 to 12 hurricanes, likely 9 hurricanes
2 to 6 major hurricanes with 4 major hurricanes
ACE is 120 to 190 with ACE likely of 130 to 180

Colorado State University
17/8/4 ACE: 150

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
16 to 22 Storms/9 to 13 Hurricanes/3 to 6 Major Hurricanes ACE: 150 to 200

Tropical Storm Risk
17/8/3 ACE: 134

Accuweather
16 to 20 Storms/7 to 10 Hurricanes/3 to 5 Major Hurricanes ACE: 120 to 160

Crown Weather
16/8/4

The Weather Channel
18/8/3

Weather Tiger
15/7/3

University of Arizona
18/8/4 ACE: 137

North Carolina University
15 to 18 Storms/7 to 9 Hurricanes/2 to 3 Major Hurricanes

2021 Actual Number
21 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
146 ACE

Many including myself got the forecast off. The 2021 Hurricane Season was more active than forecasted. The ACE was under compared to the actual ACE. I did get the ACE right. There is always room for improvement.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2022 could be an interesting hurricane season. It could be a harry one. It only takes one to be a devastating season regardless of how inactive or active a season is.

Nicholas Getting Closer To Texas

It is hard to believe it has been thirteen years since Hurricane Ike made landfall on this day in Southeast Texas. It has been nearly a year since Tropical Storm Beta made landfall. Now, we have Tropical Storm Nicholas. The National Hurricane Center has Nicholas a near hurricane with 70 mph/110 km/h winds as of 7:00 PM CDT. Where does Nicholas go and will it stall over Texas? Here is the forecast model from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is 1800Z.

The heat map is not as circular, as it is more oval. A more circular heat would suggest that Nicholas could linger over Texas. However, it looks more likely Nicholas will exit Texas. Nicholas is not going to be another Harvey at this time. That is a good thing as Harvey dumped heavy rain over Southeast Texas for nearly a week. The next question is how strong will Nicholas be before landfall.

Most intensity forecast models keep Nicholas as a tropical storm. One has it near hurricane. Intensity forecast models are not reliable. I think Nicholas could further intensify into a hurricane before landfall. I would not be surprised if Nicholas makes landfall with 75 to 80 mph (120 to 128 km/h) winds. The most concerning aspect is the rainfall from Nicholas. Southeast Texas had string of floods from Memorial Day 2015, Tax Day 2016, Memorial Day 2016, Harvey, and Imelda. Here are forecast models of rainfall totals. The forecast models are from Weather.US. They are all seven day rainfall total forecast.

The forecast modes are:
EURO (European)
ICON (German)
GFS (American)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)
UM (South Korea)

EURO

ICON

GFS

GEM

CMA

UM

The Korean forecast model has the highest rainfall total of over 27 inches of rain. The EURO has over 16 inches of rain. Most forecast models have between 10 to 11 inches of rain. The forecast models are all over the place where the heaviest rain will fall. Some have it off shore, while some have it over land. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. The forecast are from highest rainfall totals in the forecast models.

Mean: 14.85
Median: 11.55
Standard Deviation: 6.60
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound: 7.92
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound: 21.78

The mean is 14.85 inches and median is 11.55 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 7.92 to 21.78 inches. It is probable the highest amount is somewhere between 8 to 21 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be less than 8 inches or over 21 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the the highest rainfall total will probably be somewhere between 8 to 22 inches with the mean of 15 inches. I would not be surprised if some areas have nearly 25 inches of rain before it is all over.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Nicholas could further intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before landfall.
-Rainfall amounts could range from 10 to 15 inches/25.4 to 38.1 centimeters of rain with isolated totals approaching 25 inches/63.5 centimeters.
-Some areas could see flooding.