Tropical Depression 16 (Future Nate)

Tropical Depression 16 just formed. It could be Nate soon. It is October and it can be active. October has produce some very intense hurricanes like Great Hurricane Of 1780, 1924 Cuba Hurricane, Hattie, Opal, Mitch, Wilma, and Matthew. In fact some of the most intense tropical cyclones known have occurred in October like Tip, Patricia, Wilma, and 1999 Odisha Cyclone. They are the most intense tropical cyclones in their basin in the Northern Hemisphere! Here is the heat map forecast from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Tropical Depression 16. The heat map is from within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point.

Most of the forecast models suggest that Tropical Depression 16 may go over Central America and then go over the Caribbean. From there, it enters the Gulf of Mexico. This is what concerns me.

The Northwest Caribbean off the coast of Belize and Yucatan Peninsula is very warm. If conditions are right in the atmosphere, Tropical Depression 16 or future Nate could undergo rapid intensification. Warm water is not the only factor that allows hurricanes to rapidly intensify. If the upper air is favorable like more humidity and less wind shear combined with warm water, it could allow rapid intensification. This is the same area where Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Here is the intensity forecast.

Only one forecast model has future Nate as a major hurricane. Forecasting strength and intensity is notoriously difficult. I would not be surprised if Tropical Depression 16 or future Nate becomes a major hurricane.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Nate will form as early as Thursday.
-Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico needs to watch.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential. Special thanks to all of them.

Advertisements

Puerto Rico In Trouble

Hurricane Maria is a very dangerous Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph 280 km/h 152 knots. It has a central pressure of 909 millibars (mb). This is more intense than Hurricane Irma in terms of central pressure. Maria is now the top 10 most intense Atlantic hurricane known. I mean known as records go back to 1851.

Top 10 Most Intense Hurricane By Central Pressure
1.) Wilma 2005 882 mb
2.) Gilbert 1988 888mb
3.) Labor Day 1935 892 mb
4.) Rita 2005 895 mb
5.) Allen 1980 899 mb
6.) Camille 1969 900 mb
7.) Katrina 2005 902 mb
8.) Mitch 1998/Dean 2007 905 mb
9.) Maria 2017 909 mb
10.) Cuba 1932/Ivan 2004 910 mb

Wilma is the most intense hurricane to date. It ravaged Yucatan Peninsula and Florida. Gilbert and Rita caused a huge scare for Texas. Gilbert hit Jamaica, Yucatan Peninsula, and Mexico’s Gulf Coast. Rita hit east of Houston area in East Texas and Southwest Louisiana. Labor Day 1935 Hurricane likely had low central pressure. Allen made landfall on South Texas. Camille and Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast in the same area. Katrina was larger as it produced higher storm surge in Mississippi and flooded out New Orleans. Mitch killed 22,000 from heavy rain and massive flooding in Central America. Mitch is the deadliest hurricane after the Great Hurricane of 1780, which claimed 30,000 lives. Dean hit Yucatan Peninsula and Mexico. Cuba 1932 is Cuba’s deadliest hurricane to this day. Ivan ravaged the the Caribbean before making landfall on Alabama and Florida. Ivan came back again and made landfall as a tropical storm on Texas/Louisiana border. That being said, Maria is getting ever so closer to St. Croix and Puerto Rico.

Doppler radar image out of Puerto Rico shows a formidable Hurricane Maria. Not often we see a Category 5 hurricane on ground based Doppler radar. It has a near prefect circular eye. The infrared satellite image of Hurricane Maria is very impressive and scary. It is going to be a rough night for St. Croix.

St. Croix is experiencing tropical storm force winds. Hurricane force winds should be later tonight for St.Croix. Puerto Rico should feel tropical storm force winds later tonight. Hurricane force wind comes early tomorrow morning. Hurricane force winds are up to 104 miles 166 km 90 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are are up to 276 miles 442 km 240 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. It has gotten larger from yesterday. The speed Maria is moving at, 10 mph 16 km/h 8.7 knots, tropical storm force winds could last up to nearly 28 hours, while hurricane force winds could last up to 10 hours. This prolonged wind could do a lot of damage for Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

Here is the heat map forecast from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Maria up close with Puerto Rico.

It does not look good for Puerto Rico. Most of the forecast models have Maria making landfall and going over Puerto Rico. The intensity as it is is very concerning. I would not be surprised if Maria intensifies further right before it gets close to Puerto Rico later tonight. This is a very bad for Puerto Rico. If Hurricane Maria makes landfall as a Category 5 on Puerto Rico, it will be the first since 1928, the Okeechobee Hurricane. On September 13, 1928, the Okeechobee Hurricane made landfall on Puerto Rico as a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph 256 km/h 139 knots. The gusts are as high as 240 mph 384 km/h 209 knots. It had a central pressure of 929 millibars. It was very likely the central pressure was lower and stronger. The hurricane was large as it ravaged Puerto Rico. The hurricane claimed 312 lives in Puerto Rico, while 1,200 lives were lost at Guadeloupe. The Okeechobee Hurricane made landfall near West Palm Beach as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph 232 km/h 126 knots on September 17, 1928. The highest wind on land would be around 123 mph 200 km/h 107 knots with gusts as high as 185 mph 296 km/h 161 knots. The hurricane stayed over Florida and claimed at least 2,500 lives and likely more. The Okeechobee Hurricane claimed more than 4,000 lives. The death toll is likely much higher. It is America’s deadliest hurricane since 1900 Galveston Hurricane that claimed 12,000 lives. In fact, Okeechobee Hurricane is the deadliest American disaster prior to 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina.

Once Maria passes Puerto Rico, where does it go?. This is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Maria. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

The forecast models have a westward trend from 24 hours ago. Dominican Republic and Bahamas could feel the impact of Maria. There is also a possibility that Maria could affect North Carolina and the Eastern Seaboard. That would be too early to tell at this time. This is on top of how strong Maria will be.

Most of the forecast models have Maria weakening after it passes Puerto Rico. One model has Maria intensifying back to a Category 5 hurricane in three days. Intensity forecast are notoriously difficult to forecast. All the forecast models are subject to change.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Maria could pose a major threat to Puerto Rico.
-Maria will likely impact Dominican Republic.

This is going to be very bad for Puerto Rico and St. Croix. I fear the damage will be epic and the death toll could be high. This comes at a bad time as Puerto Rico is mired in a serious financial crisis. This could make recovery difficult for Puerto Rico. I cannot imagine what it will be like during Hurricane Maria.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, NOAA Tropical Cyclone Imagery – Storm Floaters, National Hurricane Center, and National Weather Service. Special thanks to all of them.

Double Trouble!

The Natonal Hurricane Center (NHC) has confirmed that Hurricane Maria made landfall as a formidable Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph 256 km/h 139 knots wind. Gusts can go as high as 240 mph 384 km/h 209 knots! It has a central pressure 924 millibars. Maria is the second Category 5 hurricane of 2017 for the Atlantic. The last time there were more than one Category 5 hurricane was in 2007 with Dean and Felix. 2005 had four Category 5 hurricanes; Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. This is going to be a very long night for the people of Dominica. I cannot imagine what it is like to be under a Category 5 monster. Strong and howling winds and buildings getting destroyed.

The hurricane force winds is going to engulf most if not all of Dominica.

Hurricane force winds are up to 58 miles 93 km 50 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. It is moving at 9 mph 14 km/h 7.8 knots, which means they will have to endure hurricane force winds for about 6 hours! That is a very prolonged, which increases chance for great carnage in Dominica. At that speed, Hurricane Maria will dump between 8 to 12 inches/20.3 to 30.5 centimeters of rain. Some areas could see as much as 20 inches/50.8 centimeters of rain.

The big question is where the Maria go after ravaging Dominica. This is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Maria. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

Once Maria passes Dominica, Maria may go over St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Those areas have been ravaged by Hurricane Irma. They do not need another monster hurricane ravaging them again. Some of the forecast models put it over Puerto Rico sometimes by this Wednesday. If Maria goes over Puerto Rico, it would be a very bad disaster for the island, which is mired in a financial crisis. That will make things much worse than it is. After Puerto Rico, most forecast models have Maria going northwestward. Some have it going to the Bahamas. At this point, Maria should not be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico. That can change of course. Not something we need after Harvey and Irma. The next question is how strong will Maria be.

Most forecast models show Maria weakening to Category 4 within 36 hours. Intensity forecast is notoriously difficult. It is possible Maria could be a Category 5 hurricane by the time it hits Puerto Rico. That will make things much worse as it is. Most forecast model a weakening trend as it turns northwest. The waters north of Puerto Rico are cooler due to Hurricane Irma.

Hurricane Irma became a Category 5 in warm waters, not the warmest. The warmest waters are in the Western Caribbean between Cuba, Central America, and Yucatan Peninsula. If Maria went over that water, it would probably be more intense than Wilma in 2005.

Another hurricane I am watching is Jose. It is off the Eastern Seaboard of America. Where it goes is rather complicated. This also complicates on where Hurricane Maria ultimately goes. This is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Jose. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

The forecast models are all over where Hurricane Jose goes. Looks like Jose is likely to linger over the Atlantic. Some have it going towards Florida or New Jersey. The heat map suggests this is a low confidence forecast. Since Jose is at a more northern latitude away from the tropics, it has gotten larger as energy is spread out more.

Hurricane force winds are up to 115 miles 184 km 100 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. There is no hurricane force winds on the southern half of Jose. Tropical storm force winds are up to 449 miles 718 km 390 nautical miles from northeast to southeast quadrant. This a lop sided hurricane. Here is the most recent intensity forecast for Jose.

Most forecast models have Jose weakening into a tropical storm in the next five days. Jose will likely become extratropical in the several days. Hurricane Jose does not look like a hurricane from satellite.

Looks more like an extratropical storm than a hurricane to me.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Maria could pose a major threat to Puerto Rico.
-Jose is likely to linger over the Atlantic.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, NOAA Tropical Cyclone Imagery – Storm Floaters, National Hurricane Center, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, and Meteo-France. Special thanks to all of them.

Irma Ravages Florida Part 2

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Hurricane Irma is near Tampa and it is a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph 160 km/h 87 knot winds, which is on land 85 mph 136 km/h 74 knots. Gusts are as high as 128 mph 205 km/h 111 knots. Hurricane force winds are up to 150 miles 240 km 130 nautical miles across from northeast to southeast quadrant. Tropical force winds are up to 690 miles 1,104 km 600 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. It is a large hurricane!

Tropical storm force winds are engulfing a large portion of Florida. It is even felt in Georgia and South Carolina! That is how large Irma is. Irma got large because it is over land, which disrupts the core. There is also a cold front. Those two make Irma larger as energy is spread out. The same reason why Ike got larger before making landfall on Texas in 2008.

Irma continues to get closer to Tampa. Here is the forecast model of where Irma will go. This is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Irma. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

Interesting to note there is not much of a consensus of where Irma will go. Interestingly, there appears to be some cluster where Irma will go in the next five days. Looks like Irma may end up over Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, and Illinois.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Tampa Bay Area will be ravaged by Irma.
-Storm surge and strong winds will be the main issue.
-Flooding from storm surge and heavy rain will be widespread.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance and National Hurricane Center, . Special thanks to all of them.

Tres Huracanes

It is going to be a long night for Grand Inagua in the Bahamas. They are getting pelted by strong winds, heavy rain, high waves, and deadly storm surge. Irma has maximum sustained winds of 165 mph 264 km/h 144 knots with gusts as high as 235 mph 376 km/h 204 knots.

The central pressure is 920 millibars, which has risen. This is due to eyewall replacement cycle. Once it is done, Irma would get larger and stronger, which is worse. The update is from National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Irma is quite a large hurricane. The whole Bahamas is going to be ravaged by Hurricane Irma. The Bahamas could see storm surge of up to 20 feet/6.1 meters or greater. Bahamas is mostly flat. So anyone there should seek higher ground now!

The satellite image is quite impressive. I would not want to be caught under Irma right now. The question now is where does Irma go. Here is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Irma. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

The forecast models have Irma going west-northwest. It could make landfall or not on Cuba and than turn north into Florida. The question is where would Irma make landfall. If it makes landfall around Florida Keys or near Miami, it will be really bad. If Irma traverses over Florida, it would ravage Florida with strong winds, heavy rain, high waves, and deadly storm surge. That would be really bad. Another scenario is Irma stays offshore of Florida and makes landfall on Georgia or South Carolina. These are all just scenarios for Florida. The forecasts models are in consensus that Florida could be affected by Irma over the weekend. Anyone who is living in evacuation zones need to evacuate now! This is no game! Unfortunately, many cannot escape as gasoline has ran out at many gas stations. They would have to go another gas station and that is no picnic for sure. Waiting in long lines to get gasoline.

Since Irma has been a Category 5 hurricane since Tuesday, will Irma be still a Category 5 hurricane by this weekend?

Most forecast model keep Irma as a Category 5 by tomorrow. Some weaken it to Category 4 in 24 hours. Most keep Irma as a Category 5 for 36 hours. I think Irma will remain a Category 5 hurricane as it gets closer to Cuba and Florida. Here is why I think this.

The waters ahead of Hurricane Irma are very warm and deep. They have lots of energy for Irma to feed off of. The deep warm water is more favorable for maintaining and intensifying Irma. We have a long way to go when it comes to intensity forecast. Even if Irma weakens to Category 4, the NHC forecasts Irma becomes a much larger hurricane, which makes it more dangerous.

The warm waters can make Irma larger as it undergoes eyewall replacement cycle. A larger Hurricane Irma, even as Category 3 or 4 is very dangerous because it can produce higher storm surge and waves. Case in point, Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Katrina made landfall as Category 3 on Louisiana and Mississippi. It produced storm surge as high as 35 feet/10.7 meters! Hurricane Camille made landfall in the same area as a Category 5 hurricane, but produced storm surge of 25 feet/7.6 meters. Camille was smaller than Katrina. Hurricane Ike is another example of a large hurricane, which made landfall on Texas as a Category 2 hurricane in 2008. Ike produce storm surge as high as 25 feet/7.6 meters, which is highest outside of Mississippi! Hurricane Sandy made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on New Jersey in 2012. It produced storm surge as high as 15 feet/4.6 meters.

If Irma is the only threat in the Atlantic, there is also Jose and Katia. Let’s start with Jose. Jose is now a major hurricane with 120 mph 192 km/h 105 knots with gusts as high as 150 mph 240 km/h 130 knots.

The forecast model is concerning as that Jose could affect the same areas ravaged by Irma. There is a Hurricane Watch for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Sint Maarten, and St. Martin. They have been utterly leveled by Irma. Jose would make things worse as they already are. Here is the intensity forecast model for Jose.

Some of the forecast models have Jose becoming a Category 4 hurricane. I think Jose has a chance at being a Category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. It is far away from Irma to not be affected.

Closer to Texas, there is Hurricane Katia in the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Katia is a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph 136 km/h 74 knots winds with gusts as high as 106 mph 170 km/h 92 knots. Here is a forecast model for Katia.

Most of the forecast models have Katia going towards Mexico. It is unlikely that Katia will turn northwards towards flood ravaged Texas. That is a good thing for sure. The next question is how strong will Katia get?

Only one forecast model has Katia as a Category 3 hurricane, which would be the fourth major hurricane in 2017. Most have Katia peaking at Category 2. I think it has a chance of being a Category 3 hurricane. The area where Katia is over is warm, so it could further intensify. It is also a small hurricane, so it can intensify more quickly.

This is an ever changing event. The forecast is subject to change. Regardless, be prepared!

Here is what I think will happen.
-Irma could affect Florida this weekend
-Jose could pose a threat to Irma ravaged Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Sint Maarten, and St. Martin.
-Katia will make landfall on Mexico.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, National Hurricane Center, and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential. Special thanks to all of them.

The Three Hurricanes

Irma is a very formidable hurricane that is ravaging the Windward Islands and Lesser Antilles. Many buildings are destroyed and areas are flooded from the monster hurricane. Barbuda and Barbados are utterly leveled. Jose and Katia are now hurricanes. We have three hurricanes in the Atlantic at once. The last time that happened was in September 2010 with Igor, Julia, and Karl in September 2010. There were four hurricanes at once in September 1998; Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl. In August 1893, there were four hurricanes active. This is a really active pattern we are in.

That infrared satellite image is over Barbuda, which has been really devastated by Irma. I can imagine the death toll could be quite horrendous.

Here is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Irma, Katia, and Jose. The GFS goes up to 10 days. Let’s start with Irma as it is the most dangerous.

The forecast has Irma moving west-northwest. across the Atlantic. It looks more likely Irma is going to hit Florida. An area of major concern is the Miami area. It is a large urban area with many buildings and buildings under construction. If Irma hit Miami area directly, it is going to be really bad. It could be more damaging that Katrina or even Harvey! It looks like Irma may go towards Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, which is too early to tell.

Irma remains a dangerous Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph 296 km/h 161 knots hurricane. It has gusts of 235 mph 376 km/h 204 knots. The central pressure has dropped to 914 millibars. No hurricane in the Atlantic has maintained 180 mph 288 km/h 157 knots for that long! This is really telling!

The intensity forecast model keeps Irma as a Category 5 hurricane and weakens within 36 hours. Intensity forecasting is not that accurate as we have a long way to go. I would not be surprised if Irma becomes stronger with 190 mph 304 km/h 165 knot winds or greater! The central pressure is at its lowest as of right now.

Here is Hurricane Jose.

Jose looks to be a fish storm. However, I could not rule out another landfall after Irma, but that is too early to tell right now. Looking at Jose, I think it has a chance of being our next major hurricane.

Some of the forecast models have Jose as a major hurricane in the next 2 days. I think it could be a major hurricane as early as tomorrow.

Lastly, there is Katia.

The current forecast models have Katia making landfall on Mexico. The chance of Katia going northward towards Texas is low at this time. That is a good thing as they are still reeling from Harvey.

Most forecast models have Katia intensifying. A couple of them have Katia becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours. Again, I would not be surprised if Katia became a major hurricane as well. The Bay of Campeche is favorable for hurricanes to undergo rapid intensification.

Let’s go back to Irma. Currently, Irma is north of Puerto Rico. Here is the most recent Doppler radar from San Juan.

This is what a Category 5 monster looks like on Doppler radar. Despite being north of the island, the weather is really bad right now. Puerto Rico is experiencing tropical storm force winds with occasional hurricane force gusts.

The one hour rainfall totals are nothing short of impressive.

The southern eyewall have extremely heavy rain. Doppler radar estimates up to 8 inches/20.3 centimeters per hour! That is some intense stuff right there!

All forecast models are subject to change.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Irma will maintain and may get stronger.
-Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba could be effected. Would not rule out a landfall.
-Bahamas could be next before Florida.
-Florida better prepare for Irma.

Everyone in Irma’s path better be super prepared for this. Irma is one vicious hurricane.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, National Hurricane Center, and NWS San Juan. Special thanks to all of them.

Incredible Irma

Hurricane Irma is now a powerful Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph 296 km/h 161 knots hurricane. It has gusts of 235 mph 376 km/h 204 knots. It has a central pressure of 916 millibars. This is a very dangerous hurricane. Here is an infrared satellite up close of Irma.

Very impressive and scary I will say. Here is a wind radii map of Irma.

Hurricane force winds extend up to 50 miles 80 km/h 44 nautical miles. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 175 miles 280 km/h 152 nautical miles. It is a fairly large hurricane. Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, and St. Kitts Nevis are experiencing tropical storm force winds. They could get hurricane force winds later tonight. It is going to be a very long night for them. If Irma makes landfall at its current strength, it would be one of the strongest tropical cyclones to make landfall in terms of wind. Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, and St. Kitts Nevis could see winds of 180 mph 288 km/h 157 knots with gusts as high as 270 mph 432 km/h 235 knots! The winds are enough to flatten buildings! There is also deadly storm surge and high waves battering the island. It is going to be really rough for them. Let’s hope they are prepared.

The latest Doppler radar shows that there is light rain right now. It is from Meteo-France and out of Guadeloupe and Martinique.

It shows the western eyewall, which could affect them later tonight. The eastern eyewall has the strongest winds and that could come while they sleep. It is going to be a nightmare for them.

Where does Irma go? Here is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

The forecast models have going west-northwest towards Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. From there, Irma could make landfall on Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba. From there, Irma may hit Florida. Where it goes is anyone’s guess. The heat map generally shows once Irma reaches Florida, it goes northward. Keep in mind, this is 5 days away. The heat map shows a low chance that Irma may end up in the Gulf of Mexico. The reason the forecast has Irma going north is a cold front. The cold front is a major factor on where Irma will go. Keep in mind anything can happen and forecast is subject to change.

One wonders how long can Irma be a Category 5 hurricane. Category 5 hurricanes do not last long.

The forecast model keep Irma as a Category 5 hurricane for another 48 hours. If Irma is a Category 5 hurricane for that long, it would be the longest lived Category 5 hurricane. It would be the longest since Ivan in 2004. It may even exceed Ivan and challenge Allen in 1980 or 1932 Cuba Hurricane. That is very telling! Most forecast models have Irma weakening into a Category 4 hurricane, which is still extremely dangerous. However, intensity forecast models are not that reliable. I think Irma could still be a Category 5 hurricane by tomorrow and towards Florida. Again, anything can change.

Antigua, Barbados, Guadeloupe, and St. Kitts Nevis are going to have a long night tonight. Howling winds, heavy rain, high waves, and deadly storm surge are going to be very violent. They could see 8 to 12 inches/20.3 to 30.5 centimeters of rain with amount as high as 20 inches/50.8 centimeters.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Irma will maintain and may get stronger.
-The next morning will be horrible for Antigua, Barbados, Guadeloupe, and St. Kitts Nevis.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, National Hurricane Center, and Meteo-France. Special thanks to all of them.