Intensifying Idalia

Hurricane Idalia over the Gulf of Mexico.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL102023#tab2

Hurricane Franklin is the first major hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic Season. It is a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds as of 11:00 PM AST per National Hurricane Center (NHC). It peaked as a Category 4 hurricane. However, it is over the open Atlantic and poses little threat at this time. Right now, my main concern is Hurricane Idalia. It is a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds as of 11:00 PM EDT. However, looking at satellite images, there is a tiny eye and circular shape suggests it is likely intensifying. Here is the intensity forecast model from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

Most forecast models have Idalia as a Category 3 hurricane with one as a Category 4 hurricane. I consider intensity forecast models unreliable. I think Idalia is going to be a Category 4 hurricane by morning. It may even be a Category 5 hurricane. The water is quite warm. Here is a Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity for the Gulf of Mexico. It is courtesy of Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA).

Idalia is over water that could support 880 millibars and winds of over 175 mph (150 knots). It does have the potential to be a Category 5 hurricane if conditions are right. I am most inclined to predict that Idalia will be a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. The most pressing is where Idalia will make landfall. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most forecast models have Idalia heading towards the Big Bend of Florida. Big Bend is prone to storm surge due to large area of shallow water and shape of a funnel. Bays are vulnerable to storm surge as they have shallow water and funnel shape. Think Gavleston or Tampa Bay, which is one of the high risk area for storm surge. New Orleans, Houston, New York City, and Bangladesh are high risk for storm surge. Here is a storm surge map from the NHC. It is a potential storm surge flooding map.

Some areas could see up to 15 feet storm surge, which is quite high. It could flood land areas with over 9 feet of water. That is dangerous storm surge. Anyone in the storm surge area should evacuate. Another factor for storm surge is size of storm and forward speed. Idalia is moving at 18 mph, which is rather fast. The speed could prevent Idalia from becoming a Category 5 hurricane. It is also a smaller hurricane. Here is a map wind radii for Idalia from NHC.

Tropical storm force winds extend up to 160 miles. Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles from the eye. Parts of Florida are already dealing with tropical storm force wind. The smaller size and relative fast speed of Idalia could make it less of a storm surge threat. Regardless, storm surge will be a dangerous threat for Florida.

Hurricane Idalia is going to be a dangerous hurricane. Anyone in storm surge area should of evacuated by now. Anyone inland should hide from the wind. It is going to be a rough ride.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Idalia will likely be Category 4 or 5 hurricane by morning.
-Idalia will likely make landfall on Florida by morning and near peak.
-Mostly will be a storm surge and wind event.

The Aftermath Of Hurricane Ian

Wilfredo Lee – AP Photo

The magnitude of destruction from Hurricane Ian has come to light. The monster storm surge and strong winds ravaged Southwest Florida. It is nothing short of utter devastation for Southwest Florida. Fort Myers is utterly flattened. It looks like a war zone. Houses and buildings are flattened everywhere. The damage total is likely to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Joe Raedle – Getty Images

The death toll is something I do not want to think about at this time. At least 10 people are known to have died. Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno thinks the death toll could be in the hundreds. The full extent is not even known yet. I would not be surprised if the death toll rises from Hurricane Ian.

Hurricane Ian is a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as of 11:15 PM EDT. It is quite a large storm with tropical storm force extending up to 415 miles. Here is the most recent forecast model for where Ian will go. The forecast model is from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most forecast models have Hurricane Ian making landfall in South Carolina. North Carolina should not let their guard down. Currently, South Carolina and North Carolina are experiencing tropical storm force winds. It is going to be a rough night and Friday for them. Could Ian further intensify before it makes landfall? Here is an intensity forecast model from NCAR.

Most forecast models keep Hurricane Ian as a Category 1 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Ian further intensifies. A Category 2 hurricane is not out of question for Ian. Coastal South Carolina is prone to storm surge. Hurricane Hugo ravaged South Carolina with storm surge as high as 20 feet in 1989. Hugo made landfall as a large Category 4 hurricane. I do not think Ian will be a major hurricane at this time.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Ian is likely to further intensify, possibly up to Category 2 hurricane.
-Storm surge will be the main threat for South Carolina.
-Heavy rain and flooding will be another threat.

I am going to leave you with this image. It is a scene that is being repeated all over Southwest Florida. It will likely be the case in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Naples Fire-Rescue Department via AP

Hurricane Ian, A Sense Of Deja Vu

Hurricane Ian just made landfall on Florida on September 28, 2022.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/Sandwich/

Hurricane Ian made landfall at 3:05 PM EDT on Cayo Costa and near Pirate Harbor at around at 4:35 PM EDT. Hurricane Ian made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds at Cayo Costa. Ian peaked at 155 mph winds and central pressure of 936 millibars. I would not be surprised if Ian gets upgraded to Category 5. Hurricane Ian gives a sense of deja vu with Hurricane Charley. Hurricane Charley made landfall on August 13, 2004.

Hurricane Charley from NOAA.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satmet.2012-Feb-14/modules/wild_weather/charley/charley.html

Hurricane Charley made landfall at the almost same location where Hurricane Ian did. Even the landfall times are almost the same at 3:45 PM and 4:45 PM. Both had frontal boundary that impacted steering motion for them. Talk about eerily similar. However, there are differences between Charley and Ian.

Hurricane Ian is stronger with 155 mph winds and central pressure of 936 millibars at peak. Hurricane Charley peaked at 150 mph and 941 millibars. Charley is much smaller with hurricane force winds extending up to 25 miles from the eye. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles for Charley. Ian has hurricane force winds extending up to 45 miles from the eye. Ian has large tropical storm force winds extending up to 175 miles. Charley moved faster compared to Ian. The storm surge is much higher in Ian than in Charley. In terms of rain amount, Charley dumped 4 to 8 inches of rain. Ian has dumped over 12 inches of rain and still falling as of tonight (September 28, 2022). Charley is not a flood event, while Ian is looking to be a flood event.

Here are rainfall forecast totals between September 28, 2022 to October 6, 2022. They are from Weather.US. The forecast models are:
GFS (American)
EURO (European)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)

GFS (American)

EURO (European)

GDAPS/UM (South Korean)

GEM (Canadian)

CMA (Chinese)

The Canadian has the lowest amount of 16.80 inches of rain. The Korean has the highest at 42.20 inches of rain. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. I look at rainfall total forecast.

Mean	24.92
Median	20.4
Standard Deviation	10.51
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound	11.87
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound	37.97

The mean rainfall total is 24.92 inches with median of 20.40 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 11.87 inches to 37.97 inches. It is probable the rainfall total will be somewhere between 12 to 38 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be below 12 inches or over 50 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the rainfall total is probably going to be somewhere between 12 to 38 inches of rain. More than likely, it is now over 12 inches of rain.

I would not be surprised if some areas in Florida see over 40 inches of rain from Hurricane Ian. If Hurricane Ian was to dump 40 inches or greater, that would be a record for Florida. The highest known 24 hour rainfall total for Florida is 38.70 inches in Yankeetown! The total rainfall from Easy is 45.20 inches, making it Florida’s wettest tropical system. It is probable some areas could of had higher rainfall totals from Easy. Ian could challenge Easy in terms of rainfall.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Ian is likely to weaken overnight.
-Ian is likely to be more of a heavy rain even for inland and East Coast of Florda.
-Storm surge will remain a problem for Florida.

Florida Under The Gun From Hurricane Ian

GOES-East of Southeastern US in Band 13.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=se

Hurricane Ian has passed Cuba. It made landfall at around 4:30 AM Eastern Time in the Pinar del Rio province as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. The highest wind on land is around 106 mph with gusts of 160 to 175 mph. The hurricane overwhelmed the Cuban power grid, which caused it to collapse. All of Cuba is out of power as of tonight. No words on casualties yet in Cuba.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has the eye of Hurricane Ian is over Dry Tortuga as of 10:00 PM Eastern Time. It is a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds and central pressure of 947 millibars. Where does Ian go? Here is the forecast model from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most forecast models have a southward trend compared to yesterday’s forecast model. It look like Tampa Bay was in the bull’s eye.

Hurricane Ian could make landfall south of Tampa Bay. That does not mean Tampa Bay is out of the woods yet. Forecast models are subject to change. Ian could make landfall between north to south of Tampa Bay. As Ian remains over the Gulf of Mexico, how strong will Ian be before it makes landfall? It is also from NCAR.

Most forecast models keep Ian as a Category 3 hurricane with one having it as a Category 4 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Ian intensifies again as strong as Category 5 hurricane. I think it will likely be a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph. It will likely make landfall somewhere along the Florida as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.

Here are infrared satellite and Doppler radar simulation of what Hurricane Ian could look like upon landfall. They are from Tropical Tidbits. The first one is simulated infrared from Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) and second one is Doppler radar simulation from Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic (HMON).

The infrared simulation has a large Hurricane Ian that has intensified. It is interacting with the cold front. The Doppler radar simulation has a central pressure of 945 millibars with winds of around 125 mph. Here is a wind speed of Hurricane Ian upon landfall from HMON.

The HMON forecast model has a large Hurricane Ian making landfall. A large hurricane is likely to produce higher storm surge. Large storm surge would be a severe problem for Florida. Many areas in Florida would experience winds ranging from 60 to 90 mph with gusts of 90 mph to 144 mph. Keep in mind, there are just forecast models for Hurricane Ian.

Florida better be prepared for the worst from Hurricane Ian. It is going to be a long few days for Florida.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Ian is likely to undergo rapid intensification to a Category 4 hurricane.
-Ian will make landfall somewhere along the West Coast of Florida on Wednesday evening or night.
-Storm surge will likely very damaging for Florida.

Hurricane Ian And The Next Few Days

GOES-East of Gulf Of Mexico in Band 13.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=gm

Hurricane Ian is currently a Category 2 hurricane as of 11:00 PM from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Ian has 105 mph winds and central pressure of 962 millibars. It is getting closer to Western Cuba. It is going to be a long and rough night for Western Cuba. Once Ian passes Western Cuba, it will enter the warm Gulf Of Mexico. Where does Ian go? Here is the forecast model from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a heat map generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is at 0000Z.

Most of the forecast model have Ian heading towards Florida. One has it going westward towards Louisiana, which is unlikely. Tampa Bay Area looks like it is in the bull’s eye of where Hurricane Ian could make landfall. The other question is how strong will Ian be? It is also from NCAR.

Most intensity forecast have Ian as a major hurricane by tomorrow. Most keep it as Category 3 with one having Ian as a Category 4. I consider intensity forecast models to be unreliable. I think Ian is undergoing rapid intensification. I would not be surprised if Ian becomes a Category 5 hurricane. The waters around Cuba and Eastern Gulf Of Mexico can support a Category 5 hurricane. Here is a Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity for the Gulf of Mexico. It is courtesy of Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere (COLA).

If conditions are right, Ian has the potential to have a central pressure of 880 millibars or lower with winds of over 190 mph. That is if the conditions are near perfect. I do not think Ian will have a central pressure of 880 millibars or lower and have 190 mph winds. North of Ian, there is strong wind shear. Here is a wind shear map from CIMSS.

Wind shear is what tends to prevent hurricanes from reaching their maximum potential. Ian at most is likely to have 160 to 165 mph winds and central pressure of 910 to 930 millibars. There is a stationary cold front, which is producing wind shear. That is likely to make Ian move slower. The slower Ian moves, the higher chance for heavy rain and storm surge. Slower moving hurricanes produce higher storm surge. If Ian was to slow down, the storm surge is going to be a severe problem for the Tampa Bay Area.

The Tampa Bay Area have not had a major hurricane make landfall since 1921. It is the 1921 Tampa Bay or Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921. It was a Category 4 hurricane that made landfall on October 25, 1921 with 120 mph winds. It produced storm surge of 11 feet in Downtown Tampa. It was likely a large hurricane when it made landfall. The hurricane claimed 8 lives. If it happened today, it would be catastrophic for the Tampa Bay Area.

Tampa Bay is one of the most vulnerable to storm surge. The bay is a large area of shallow water. It also a funnel shape. Those combinations are very conducive to high storm surge. One reason why the areas off of Louisiana and Mississippi, Southeast Texas, Big Bend Coast of Florida, New York City, and Bangladesh have high storm surge.

Corelogic did an analysis of most vulnerable for hurricane in terms of property damage. Tampa has a high risk for storm surge and hurricane winds, which makes them vulnerable. New York City is the most vulnerable to storm surge and hurricane winds.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Ian is likely to undergo rapid intensification.
-Ian will make landfall on Western Cuba as an intensifying Category 3 hurricane.
-Ian could be Category 5 hurricane once it is over the Gulf Of Mexico.

Ida Is Now A Hurricane

GOES-16 satellite image from Weathernerds.

The world cannot catch a break in this crazy year of 2021. 2021 is just as crazy as 2020. The terrorist attack in Kabul has claimed a total of 182 lives including 13 American service members. There are now over 216 million confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. America has reported over 190,000 new cases and 1,304 new deaths. This is as of August 27, 2021. As of tonight, Hurricane Ida is exiting Cuba and entering into the Gulf of Mexico.

Here is a heat map from forecast models from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The heat is generated by QGIS. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is 0000Z.

It is looking more likely Ida is going to make landfall somewhere between Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Texas and Florida are less likely to have Ida making landfall. The landfall risk includes New Orleans. New Orleans is mostly below sea level.

New Orleans was flooded out after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast in 2005. New Orleans has pump stations to pump water out of the city. To make matters worse, some pump stations are out of service. Here is map of New Orleans pump stations that are online and offline. It is courtesy of The Times-Picayune and The New Orleans Advocate.

That would be a bad time if Ida is over them and the pumps are not fully online. If the dirty side of Ida is over New Orleans, there could be massive storm surge that floods the city. One area of concern is Lakeview, which is below sea level. Lakeview flooded after the levees failed from Hurricane Katrina. New Orleans area had 60 to 90 mph (96 to 144 km/h) winds with gusts of 90 to 135 mph (144 to 216 km/h) winds during Katrina. New Orleans area could have 100 to 120 mph (160 to 192 k/h) winds with gusts of 150 to 180 mph (240 to 270 km/h) from Ida.

Looking at satellite image, the circular shape of Ida suggests it is starting to intensify. Here is an intensity forecast model for Ida.

Most forecast models have Ida as a Category 3 within 24 hours. A couple have Ida peaking at Category 4 hurricane. Intensity forecast models are not reliable. I would not be surprised if Ida undergoes rapid intensification. Come morning, Ida is likely to be a Category 4 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Ida ends up being a Category 5 hurricane. Here is something that is unsettling. New Orleans is not going to issue mandatory evacuations and contraflows. As mentioned, New Orleans is vulnerable from flooding. Storm surge will certainly flood the city. Here is an excerpt from the article:

Hurricane Ida is approaching New Orleans more rapidly than city officials had initially prepared for, Mayor LaToya Cantrell said in an evening press conference Friday.

The storm, now projected to hit the Gulf Coast as a major Category 4 hurricane on Sunday, is moving so fast that the city will not be able to issue a mandatory evacuation for residents or implement contraflow for those evacuating voluntarily. New Orleans is expected to feel the effects of Ida as early as Saturday night.

“It is vitally important. We want our people to be in their safe spaces by, and no later than midnight tomorrow,” said Cantrell.

That is very unsettling to think about. If Ida was to flood New Orleans, the city is going to be cut off from the world. There maybe no power and water and this is on top of COVID-19 pandemic. Many New Orleans area hospitals have COVID patients and some are on life support. Evacuating them will be a logistical nightmare. Here is a dire warning for Hurricane Katrina on August 28, 2005. It could apply with Ida:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. 

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

$$

Reading that advisory from Katrina sends a chill down my spine. If Ida was to get close to New Orleans, it could be like Katrina again. Hopefully, that will not be the case.

I think Ida will be a major hurricane come morning. I would not be surprised if Ida is a Category 5 hurricane. Everyone along the Gulf Coast needs to be prepared right now. If you need to evacuate, please do so right now. It could be really bad.

Hurricane Sally, Wildfires, And COVID-19

The Atlantic is heating up with Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, and Vicky. Rene is no more, while Paulette and Sally are hurricanes. Sally is the biggest threat as it is in the Gulf of Mexico, which I will discuss later. There are monster wildfires burning in California, Oregon, and Washington. This is all on top of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of 9/14/2020, there are over 29 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 with more than 932,000 deaths. There are over 7 million who are currently infected with more than 60,000 who are severely ill. It is from Worldometer. If you want to read my analysis on COVID-19, check out my other blog, The Ebola Zone. 2020 has been nothing but a terrible year all around no matter how one spins it. The whole world is of never ending disasters ranging from public health to weather. So much ground the cover.

The whole West is on fire. The whole West is covered in thick and acrid smoke. It is from Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB)

Here is a heat map of active wildfires in the past 7 days. It is from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), which has a resolution of 375 meters or 1,230 feet. It is from NASA Active Fire Data. The heatmap is within 100 mile/160 kilometers radius from the point show.

It is really dire in the Western US. The whole West is on fire. Dire is a severe understatement. The death toll is probably going to be high once it is all over. Here is a Dense Smoke Advisory from NWS Reno.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
218 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-160000-
/O.NEW.KREV.SM.Y.0009.200914T2118Z-200916T0000Z/
Surprise Valley California-Lassen-Eastern Plumas-
Eastern Sierra Counties-Greater Lake Tahoe Area-Mono County-
Mineral and Southern Lyon Counties-Greater Reno-Carson City-
Minden Area-Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake-
Northern Washoe County-
Including the cities of Cedarville, Eagleville, Fort Bidwell,
Portola, Susanville, Westwood, Sierraville, Loyalton,
South Lake Tahoe, Tahoe City, Truckee, Markleeville, Bridgeport,
Coleville, Lee Vining, Mammoth Lakes, Hawthorne, Yerington,
Smith Valley, Mina, Schurz, Stateline, Glenbrook,
Incline Village, Sparks, Verdi, Gardnerville, Virginia City,
Fernley, Fallon, Lovelock, Silver Springs, Nixon, Imlay, Empire,
and Gerlach
218 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Light west-southwest winds will continue to push smoke
into the region from several wildfires burning across
California. The near-surface smoke concentration may improve
during the afternoon today and tomorrow but looks to degrade
during the evening and overnight hours through Tuesday.

* WHERE...Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake,
Mineral and Southern Lyon Counties, Mono County, Surprise
Valley California, Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra
Counties, Greater Lake Tahoe Area, Greater Reno-Carson City-
Minden Area and Northern Washoe County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM PDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Poor air quality and reduced visibility below one mile
in areas. Check airnow.gov for updated air quality information.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The areas which will see the highest risk
of dense smoke will be the Eastern Sierra, Carson Valley, Smith
Valley, Hawthorne, and northeastern California.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay indoors as much as possible when smoke is present. Avoid
strenuous activity, especially if you are sensitive to poor air
quality, such as the elderly, children and anyone with chronic
illness or respiratory problems. Consider postponing outdoor
activities. Check airnow.gov for the latest air quality
information.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/rev

People are advised to stay indoor. That is nearly impossible for people who have to evacuate in the fire zone. I do not know when the fires will end. The sooner the better. Anyways, let’s go to Hurricane Sally.

Hurricane Sally is a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. This as of 10:00 PM CDT from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It is close to the coast and moving slowly.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150311 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Corrected Storm Surge Hazards section

...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 87.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana,
has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 87.6 West. Sally is moving
toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is
likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to
northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near
the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make
landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast early Tuesday and Sally is
expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the
north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A buoy south of Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently
reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 69
mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake
Borgne...6-9 ft
Mobile Bay...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay
an Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew
Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-2 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi
through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is
likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread
minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track across
the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern
Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia, southeastern
Tennessee, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban
flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding
on some rivers.

Outer bands of Sally could produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3
inches across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This rainfall
may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and
ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through
early Tuesday in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama.
The threat for tornadoes should increase and slowly spread inland
during the day on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

How strong will Sally get? Here is an intensity forecast. The data and intensity forecast are from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance.

Most forecast model keep Sally at Category 2. The exception is SHF5, which has it as a Category 3 hurricane. I think Sally will become a Category 3 hurricane and make landfall as one somewhere along the Central Gulf Coast. Many are wondering where Sally will go. Here is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is 0000Z. All GIS maps are created from QGIS.

Most models have Sally making landfall on Mississippi or Alabama on Tuesday night to early Wednesday morning. The slow motion of the hurricane increases chance of higher storm surge and heavier rain. Flooding would be a serious problem for areas affected by Sally. As I am typing, tropical storm force winds are affecting Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana. It should reach Mississippi later tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend up to 45 miles from the center with tropical storm force winds extending up to 125 miles. Sally is not a large hurricane. Smaller hurricanes produce lower storm surge. However, the slow movement is likely to produce higher storm surge. It is also the width and and slope of the ocean bottom that is a factor as well. The area where Sally is has produced monster storm surge from Camille and Katrina. I am not expecting storm surge comparable to Camille or Katrina at this time.

So much weather events going on in America on top of COVID-19 pandemic that is ravaging the world. Hopefully, anyone who needed to evacuate did evacuate.

Katrina, Fifteen Years Later

We are in a time of uncertainty from the COVID-19 pandemic as the coronavirus spreads around the world. Hurricane Laura ravaged Southwest Louisiana as a Category 4 monster. Coronavirus and hurricanes add to so much uncertainty in these times in 2020. Let’s look back at Hurricane Katrina. It is hard to believe it has been fifteen years ago that Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005. Katrina ties with Harvey as the most costliest hurricane to this very day. The monsterous storm surge flooded Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama. Monster storm surge that ravaged Mississippi eclipsed Hurricane Camille in 1969. The same storm surge that caused flood walls and levees to fail in New Orleans and St. Bernard Parish. The flooding caused New Orleans area to be uninhabitable for months.

So, how it all begin? Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) form over Central Africa. Than on August 8, 2005, the cluster of thunderstorms emerge over the Atlantic. It travels across the Atlantic Ocean. Than on August 11, 2005, the thunderstorms become better organized. It becomes Tropical Depression 10. Meanwhile, another tropical wave with the same origin as Tropical Depression 10 has emerged. It too started as a MCS over Central Africa. Both tropical waves are spawned by monsoons over Africa.

Tropical Depression 10 had to deal with strong wind shear from a tropospheric trough. The wind shear eventually killed Tropical Depression 10 by August 14. Had Tropical Depression 10 be named, it would have been Jose. The tropical wave that emerged on August 11 continues traveling towards the Bahamas.

Despite the wind shear, thunderstorms continue to persist in what was Tropical Depression 10. The remnant of Tropical Depression 10 dissipates on August 18. What remains of Tropical Depression 10 runs into a tropical wave that left Africa on August 11. The two systems with its origin in Africa begin to merge north of Puerto Rico on August 19. Tropical Depression 10 is being revived albeit without the lower level circulation. The two storms have merged and moving towards Bahamas. Than on August 23rd, the thunderstorms become better organized and becomes Tropical Depression 12.

Tropical Depression 12 becomes better organized and becomes Katrina. Katrina is rapidly intensifying. Had it had more time over the warm Atlantic, Katrina could have been a Category 3 hurricane. Katrina makes it first landfall on South Florida as a small Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds on August 25th at 7:25 PM. It had hurricane force winds extend up to 10 miles. It caught people off guard as Katrina traverses over South Florida with strong winds and heavy rain.

In South Florida, there is flooding and wind damage from Katrina. The highest wind on land from Katrina is 68 mph with gusts as high as 102 mph. Many areas see 10 to 15 inches of rain from Katrina. Katrina exits South Florida into the warm Gulf of Mexico was a tropical storm. The weakness is short lived as it becomes a hurricane again. 14 people lost their life from Katrina as it did $623 million in damages.

Hurricane Katrina is over the warm Gulf of Mexico intensifying and getting larger. The once midget hurricane is getting larger thanks to large area of humid airs and warm Gulf of Mexico. Than Katrina becomes a major hurricane with 115 mph on August 27. Katrina undergoes explosive intensification on the night of August 27 to 28. Waves are building up on the Gulf Coast as Katrina is making its presence felt.

By the morning of August 28, Katrina is a monsterous Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds. It has a central pressure of 902 millibars, making it the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane at the time. It is a very large hurricane and has its sights on the Gulf Coast. Forecast models have it going near New Orleans.

New Orleans is below sea level and vulnerable to high storm surge. People have to evacuate the city to avoid the dangerous storm surge. NWS WFO in Slidell issued this dire weather bulletin as Katrina underwent explosive intensification.

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…

HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH… RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL…LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE…INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY…A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD…AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS…PETS…AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING…BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE…OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE…ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET…DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for people in coastal areas including New Orleans. Some people who cannot evacuate end up at a refuge of last resort, the Superdome. About 14,000 people have taken up shelter at the Superdome. Something that would prove disasterous later on.

Katrina is barreling towards the Gulf Coast as a Category 5 hurricane. It weakens due to eyewall replacement cycle and dry air from America as it is now a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. The outer bands of Katrina are affected Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The outer bands produce squally weather. Each feeder bands get more intense as Katrina gets closer. The Mississippi Delta is experiencing hurricane force winds with heavy rain and storm surge. Conditions are deteriorating throughout the Gulf Coast as Katrina is moving northwards.

Storm surge and waves are getting higher in Louisiana and Mississippi as the weather gets worse. People are hunkered down in hopes they survive. The winds get stronger and rain heavier as Katrina is getting closer and closer by the minute.

Than at 6:10 AM, Katrina makes it first landfall on Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. On land, due to friction, the highest land wind is 106 mph with gust as high as 160 mph. It has a central pressure of 920 millibars, making it the third strongest hurricane to make landfall on America. Only 1935 Labor Day Hurricane and Camille are stronger. Interestingly, Camille made landfall in the same area as Katrina is about to on August 18, 1969. It could be said that Katrina is the cousin of Camille.

Storm surge is getting higher and higher in Louisiana as Katrina moves northward. It goes east of New Orleans a couple hours after it made its first landfall. New Orleans is on the west side of Katrina, which is the so called “clean” side of the storm. Regardless, storm surge is getting higher around New Orleans including Lake Ponchartrain to the north. As Katrina is heading towards Mississippi, the flood walls and levees begin to fail, allowing water to flood New Orleans and surrounding areas.

In St. Bernard Parish, flood waters are reaching up to roof level. The storm surge is from Mississippi River–Gulf Outlet Canal (MRGO) and Industrial Canal. It is the same storm surge that is heading towards Mississippi. The breached levees and flood walls flooding St. Bernard Parish is also flooding New Orleans.

Katrina makes it second landfall on the Gulf Coast at 9:45 AM. Katrina is still a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The highest wind is 102 mph with gusts as high as 153 mph. Katrina’s central pressure rises to 927 millibars, a still very intense hurricane by all measures. It is over Coastal Mississippi, as it takes the full brunt from Katrina. Massive storm surge hammers the coast. Storm surge rises rapidly in Mississippi as anyone at the coast has very little time to escape. Storm surge as high as 35 feet flood the coast. Anyone who did not evacuate are in deep trouble. They could drown and be swept away by the deadly storm surge.

The strong winds and heavy rain are destroying buildings in Mississippi and Louisiana. Most of New Orleans is starting as water comes out of the drains as Katrina is going inland over Mississippi. Flood waters are rapidly rising in New Orleans and surrounding areas. By the evening of of August 29, Katrina is far inland over Mississippi as a Category 1 hurricane. Flood waters are continuing to rise in New Orleans and St Bernard Parish. This is on top of the heavy rain Katrina dumped on the Gulf Coast. Many areas see 8 to 12 inches of rain with amounts as high as 16 inches.

Storm surge has subsided in Mississippi as it reveals the catastrophic damage unleashed by Katrina. It looks like if a powerful nuclear bomb exploded over Mississippi. Meanwhile in Louisiana, the scene is similar in Slidell and Buras, leveled buildings from storm surge. New Orleans and St Bernard Parish are underwater as they lie below sea level from breached levees and flood walls meant to protect the area from storm surge. They failed and allowed the area to be inundated with flood water.

New Orleans became a ghost town as most of the city is rendered uninhabitable from the contaminated flood waters. The Superdome and New Orleans Morial Convention Center become scenes of refugees who lost everything from Katrina. The situation at the Superdome is getting worse and worse as more people come and supplies are almost non-existent. A scene only seen in Third World nations, happening in America. It becomes crowded with people who have nowhere to go.

There are many stranded people on roofs who are being rescued by helicopter or boat. Since, order has been lost, looting and crime become a serious problem in New Orleans. People have to be evacuated from the city to other cities throughout the South and America. Many are evacuated to Houston and many are in the Astrodome. Some go to Baton Rouge, Dallas, and Atlanta.

Katrina is the deadliest hurricane to strike America since the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane. It claimed over 4,000 lives in Florida and Puerto Rico. The deadliest American hurricane is the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. The hurricane claimed 12,000 lives, mostly from storm surge. It remains America’s deadliest disaster to this very day.

Katrina is second disaster to kill over a thousand in America in the same decade of 2000s. The first disaster that claimed over a thousands lives in the 2000s is the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks that claimed 3,000 lives in 2001. Four hijacked airplanes crash into the World Trade Center and Pentagon. A fourth hijacking, United Airlines Flight 93 is thwarted. The attack left the World Trade Center a toxic mess and Pentagon burning. Many people who were exposed to toxic dust and smoke have developed various illnesses and have died. The last time that happened in history is the 1900s, the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 and 1906 San Francisco Earthquake. They are in fact the deadliest disasters to strike America.

Top 10 Deadliest Disasters In America
1.) 1900 Galveston Hurricane September 8, 1900 12,000
2.) 1906 San Francisco Earthquake April 18, 1906 6,000
3.) 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane August 8, 1899 3,389
4.) 9/11 Terrorist Attacks September 11, 2001 3,000
5.) Hurricane Maria September 20, 2017 2,982
6.) 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane September 13 and 16, 1928 +2,823
7.) Pearl Harbor Attack December 7, 1941 2,466
8.) Johnstown Flood May 31, 1889 2,209
9.) 1893 Cheniere Caminada Hurricane October 2, 1893 2,000
10.) Hurricane Katrina August 29, 2005 1,833

It is from Wikipedia. The list excludes droughts, epidemics, and wars.

Hurricane Dorian Part 2

Hurricane Dorian is over the Atlantic getting better organized. The latest from the National Hurricane Center has it as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph or 169 km/h winds. Looks like Dorian could be a major hurricane soon. Here is the intensity forecast model.

Most have it intensifying into a Category 3 to 4 hurricane gradually. One has it intensifying into a Category 4 in 24 hours. I would not be surprised if Dorian becomes a Category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. I looked at hurricane forecast models at Tropical Tidbits.

HWRF and HWRF-P 915 Millibars and 160 MPH

HMON 925 Millibars and 165 MPH

GFS 958 Millibars and 105 MPH

CMC 980 Millibars and 70 MPH

The HWRF and HWRF-P (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model) have the lowest pressure, while HMON (Hurricanes In A Multi-Scale Ocean) has the highest wind. They have Dorian as a Category 5 hurricane! GFS has it as a Category 2 hurricane, while Canadian as it as a strong tropical storm. If Dorian was a Category 5 hurricane barreling towards Florida, it would be really bad. It would be the second Category 5 hurricane to hit Florida in just barely a year after Hurricane Michael ravaged the Florida Panhandle.

If we average out the lowest pressure, it comes out at 944.5 or 945 millibars with average winds of 125 mph. That would make Dorian a Category 3 hurricane. Intensity forecast models are generally not reliable. So I would take them with a grain of salt. They sometimes do get the intensity correct.

The million dollar question is where does Dorian go? Here is a forecast model I created a heat map with mix of the latest forecast, which is 0000Z and 1800Z GFS ensemble track guidance. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

Looks like most of Florida and Bahamas are at risk. Also, Georgia should keep an eye on Dorian as well. It also looks like it is slowing down as it gets closer to Florida. A slowing Dorian would be bad as it could dump heavy rain over a prolong period and lead to flooding. The flooding would be very bad on top of the storm surge. This could have shades of Harvey. Again, it is too early to tell where and what will Dorian do.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Major hurricane as early as tomorrow morning.
-Labor Day weekend is likely to see any impact from Dorian.
-Dorian could slow down and lead to heavy rain.

Everyone along the Southeast and Bahamas should keep an eye on Dorian. They should prepare for the worst.

Hurricane Dorian Part 1

Hurricane Dorian has ravaged the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands with heavy rain and strong winds. There have been massive flooding. It is currently a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds from the National Hurricane Center. It is strengthening as I type. What everyone is asking is where does Dorian go?

I created a heat map with mix of the latest forecast, which is 0000Z and 1800Z GFS ensemble track guidance. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

Most forecast models have it heading towards Bahamas and Florida. Many wonder where Dorian goes after Florida. It appears it could stay over Florida or enter the Gulf Of Mexico and make landfall from Florida Panhandle to as far west as East Texas. Southeast Texas is not at any risk at this time, but that is subject to change. The other question is how strong will Dorian be?

Most forecast model have Dorian as a Category 3 hurricane. One has it as a Category 4 hurricane. I think Dorian could be a major hurricane as early as tomorrow. I would not be surprised if Dorian ends up being a Category 4 hurricane. The Doppler radar out of San Juan shows an eye is forming in Dorian. It is also night and hurricanes tend to intensify at night.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Major hurricane as early as tomorrow despite intensity forecast having Dorian a major hurricane at the end of the week.
-Florida and Bahamas should prepare for Dorian.
-Labor Day weekend is likely to see any impact from Dorian.

Regardless of forecast, everyone should keep an eye on soon to be Dorian.