Hurricane Dorian is over the Atlantic getting better organized. The latest from the National Hurricane Center has it as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph or 169 km/h winds. Looks like Dorian could be a major hurricane soon. Here is the intensity forecast model.
Most have it intensifying into a Category 3 to 4 hurricane gradually. One has it intensifying into a Category 4 in 24 hours. I would not be surprised if Dorian becomes a Category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. I looked at hurricane forecast models at Tropical Tidbits.
HWRF and HWRF-P 915 Millibars and 160 MPH
HMON 925 Millibars and 165 MPH
GFS 958 Millibars and 105 MPH
CMC 980 Millibars and 70 MPH
The HWRF and HWRF-P (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model) have the lowest pressure, while HMON (Hurricanes In A Multi-Scale Ocean) has the highest wind. They have Dorian as a Category 5 hurricane! GFS has it as a Category 2 hurricane, while Canadian as it as a strong tropical storm. If Dorian was a Category 5 hurricane barreling towards Florida, it would be really bad. It would be the second Category 5 hurricane to hit Florida in just barely a year after Hurricane Michael ravaged the Florida Panhandle.
If we average out the lowest pressure, it comes out at 944.5 or 945 millibars with average winds of 125 mph. That would make Dorian a Category 3 hurricane. Intensity forecast models are generally not reliable. So I would take them with a grain of salt. They sometimes do get the intensity correct.
The million dollar question is where does Dorian go? Here is a forecast model I created a heat map with mix of the latest forecast, which is 0000Z and 1800Z GFS ensemble track guidance. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.
Looks like most of Florida and Bahamas are at risk. Also, Georgia should keep an eye on Dorian as well. It also looks like it is slowing down as it gets closer to Florida. A slowing Dorian would be bad as it could dump heavy rain over a prolong period and lead to flooding. The flooding would be very bad on top of the storm surge. This could have shades of Harvey. Again, it is too early to tell where and what will Dorian do.
Here is what I think will happen.
-Major hurricane as early as tomorrow morning.
-Labor Day weekend is likely to see any impact from Dorian.
-Dorian could slow down and lead to heavy rain.
Everyone along the Southeast and Bahamas should keep an eye on Dorian. They should prepare for the worst.
Texas Hurricane 