Many areas are still reeling from Harvey, Irma, Maria, and as of late Michael. Michael was updated to a Category 5 at landfall. Not surprised by it. Many people lost their properties and are rebuilding. Some lost their life. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2019.
Colorado State University
13/5/2 ACE: 80
Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10 to 15 Storms/4 to 7 Hurricanes/0 to 2 Major Hurricanes ACE: 60 to 110
Tropical Storm Risk
12/5/2 ACE: 81
The Weather Channel
The analog years I am using are in which El Nino started late and is forecasted to be El Nino for the rest of the year to next year. Obviously, the forecast is uncertain.
Based on this, the analog years are 1940, 1969, 1987, 1992, 1993, and 2015. They are part of a multi-year El Nino or El Nino that is gone for a short time, only to return again later like in 1992 and 1993. 1940, 1969, 1987, and 2015 are multi-year El Nino. El Nino is not the only factor. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), Southern Ocean/Roaring Forties, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)
Analog Years For 2018 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1940 9/6/0 68 7.6
1969 18/12/5 166 9.2
1987 7/3/1 34 4.9
1992 7/4/1 76 10.9
1993 8/4/1 39 4.9
2015 11/4/2 63 5.3
All of the seasons had major hurricane, except 1940. However, I consider that suspect because of no satellite back then. The most active is 1969 with 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Many other forecasts have 1969 as an analog year.
Here are notable storms in the analog seasons.
Hurricane #2 or the 1940 Louisiana Hurricane makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane on Sabine Pass, Texas. The slow movement led to massive rainfall totals of up to 38 inches! Some areas likely saw over 40 inches of rain. 20,000 square miles was affected by heavy rain, which had an average of 12.10 inches! The storm set many state rainfall records for Louisiana, which still stand to this very day. However, some areas in Louisiana may have seen 40 inches of rain from Harvey.
Hurricane #3 or the 1940 South Carolina Hurricane hits South Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane as it made landfall on Beaufort, South Carolina. The storm dumps heavy rain of up to 21 inches triggering deadly mudslides in Appalachia. It is probable some areas saw 30 inches or greater. The widespread heavy rain triggers massive flooding. The storm claims a total of 52 lives.
Hurricane #4 or the 1940 New England Hurricane ravages New England before hitting Nova Scotia. The hurricane moisture and a stationary cold front leads to heavy rain over New Jersey including up to 24 inches, which is the wettest for the Garden State to this very day.
Hurricane #5 or the 1940 Nova Scotia Hurricane hits Nova Scotia just weeks after 1940 New England Hurricane. It hits Nova Scotia as a Category 1 hurricane. The hurricane caused shipping disruption in the North Atlantic. The hurricane causes damage in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. There are three fatalities, in which two are off of America in ships.
Hurricane Camille hit Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane. Than Camille underwent explosive intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Camille had 900 millibars and 175 mph wind prior to making landfall on Mississippi Delta and Mississippi as a Category 5 hurricane. Gusts went high as 250 mph! The remants of Camille and cold front set off core rains over Western Virginia with extremely heavy rains centered over Nelson County, Virginia. Up 27 inches of rain was confirmed with a total as high as 31 inches in a barrel away from the center. It is probable up to 40 to 50 inches of rain fell in eight hours! Camille claimed 259 lives, mostly in Virginia from flooding.
Hurricane Francelia ravages Central America before making landfall on Belize. The slow moving hurricane dumped heavy rain over Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras. The hurricane claims 271 lives, making it the deadliest prior to Mitch in 1998.
Tropical Storm #2, which is the 1987 Gulf Coast Tropical Storm makes landfall on Texas, but most the heavy rain is east of the center. The Gulf Coast saw rain amount as high as 21 inches in Van Cleave, Louisiana.
Hurricane Emily hits Dominican Republic as Category 2 hurricane and emerges as a tropical storm. However, it undergoes rapid intensification to Category 1 hurricane of 90 mph and goes directly over Bermuda. Emily is the strongest hurricane to hit Bermuda since Hurricane #6 (Dog) or the 1948 Bermuda-Newfoundland Hurricane.
Hurricane Andrew ravaged Bahamas and Florida as a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds and 920 millibar pressure. It traversed over the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall on Central Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane. Once it was all done, South Florida was cut off from the world and did $27 billion in damages. Andrew was the costliest hurricane at the time prior to Katrina in 2005 and Harvey in 2017.
Tropical Storm Arlene made landfall on Texas as a large tropical storm on June 19, 1993. It dumped heavy rain over a large area. The highest being over 15 inches of rain in Angleton. The system that became Arlene dumped heavy rain in El Salvador, which claimed 20 lives. There were five lives lost in Mexico. One died in Henderson, Texas. It claimed a total of 26 lives.
Tropical Storm Bret traveled across South America. It first made landfall on Galera Point, Trinidad and then goes over the Caribbean to make landfall on Macuro, Venezuela. It dumps heavy rain and triggers deadly mudslides. The highest measured is over 13 inches in Guanare with higher totals likely. Bret claims 173 lives in Venezuela, which is the deadliest along the 1999 Vargas Tragedy and 1967 Caracas Earthquake. The tropical storm goes over the Caribbean and makes landfall around Bahia Punta Gorda, Nicaragua. The storm dumps heavy rain over Central America, mainly in Nicaragua. The heavy rain leads to flooding and washes away villages. The storm claims 31 lives in Nicaragua. Bret goes over the East Pacific and becomes Hurricane Greg, which is a Category 4 hurricane.
Hurricane Emily is the only major hurricane of the 1993 Atlantic Season. It grazed North Carolina and came within 23 miles of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on August 31, 1993. Emily moved eastward after it grazed North Carolina. The hurricane produced 10 feet storm surge in Buxton and dumped up to 7 inches of rain. Three people died from Emily.
Hurricane Gert made landfall on Bluefields, Nucaragua as it is ravaged from Bret as a tropical storm on September 15, 1993. It goes over Honduras as a tropical depression. Heavy rain falls over Nicaragua and Honduras, which leads to massive flooding. A total of 64 people die in Nicaragua and Honduras from Gert. Nearly 18 inches of rain falls in Corinto. Gert makes landfall as a tropical storm on Belize, affecting the Yucatan Peninsula. Gert emerges into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression. From there, it becomes a Category 2 hurricane as it makes it final landfall north of Tuxpan as a Category 2 hurricane on September 20, 1993. Gert unleashes strong wind and heavy rain over Tamaulipas and Veracruz. The mountains see the heaviest rain with the highest total of over 31 inches in Aquismón with higher totals likely. The widespread rain leads to massive flooding that claims 45 lives in Mexico.
Tropical Storm Bill made landfall on June 16, 2015 on Matagorda Island. Bill dumped heavy rain over Texas with a total of over 15 inches in Ganado, Texas. Bill weakens to a tropical depression and dumps heavy rain over Oklahoma with 8 inches of rain falling in Carter County. Bill claims 8 lives.
Tropical Storm Erika was a tropical storm that dumped heavy rain over Dominca. The mountainous terrain contribute to the heavy rain and deadly flooding and mudslide. Rainfall amount of 33 inches fell over Morne Diablotins. There was high precipitable water over Dominica. It was also north of the island. A total of 30 lives were lost in Dominica, which was the worst since Hurricane David in 1979.
Hurricane Joaquin is the strongest known Atlantic hurricane of non-tropical origin as it came from upper level low and surface low. Joaquin rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph on October 2, 2015. It moved southwestward towards the Bahamas. It first made landfall as a Category 4 on Samana Cay and then Category 3 on Rum Cay and San Salvador Island. Strong winds, high waves, storm surge, and heavy rain pelt Bahamas. A 18 feet storm surge was reported in Long Island. As the Bahamas are being ravaged by Joaquin, the SS El Faro sinks into the abyss claiming all 33 on board. To make matters worse, there is a surface low of the coast of Georgia and Florida, which is drawing in moisture from Joaquin. The setup leads to widespread heavy rain over South Carolina and North Carolina. Nearly 27 inches of rain fell in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. There is widespread flooding in South Carolina as there are 18 dam breaches from the heavy rain. The flood event in part from Joaquin claims 25 lives, including 19 in South Carolina.
Many of these notable storms in analog seasons were prodigious rainmakers. Some remain records yet to be broken. Some were intense like Camille and Andrew, which were Category 5 hurricanes and at landfall. I am not suggesting 2019 will see something like Camille, Andrew, 1940 Louisiana Hurricane, or Joaquin.
Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms.
The heat map shows the most active spot being off the Eastern US. Other hot spots are the Eastern Gulf Of Mexico, east of the Lesser Antilles, and off of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. However, when you look at the whole basin, everyone is at risk for landfall. I never make landfall predictions as I strongly object to doing landfall forecasts. The reason is everyone is at equal risk.
10/6/2 (Rounded Up)
9/4/1 (Rounded Up)
How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2018.
The analog seasons are within standard deviation, which indicates this upcoming hurricane season is going to be within average.
What is my prediction for this season?
9 to 15 named storms, likely 12 named storms
5 to 10 hurricanes, likely 7 hurricanes
1 to 4 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 60 to 120 with ACE likely of 70 to 110
Let’s see how my April 2018 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2018 season.
11 to 16 named storms, likely 13 named storms
4 to 10 hurricanes, likely 7 hurricanes
1 to 4 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 80 to 140 with ACE likely of 100 to 125
Colorado State University
14/7/3 ACE: 130
Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10 to 12 Storms/4 to 6 Hurricanes/1 to 2 Major Hurricanes ACE: 90 to 110
Tropical Storm Risk
12/6/2 ACE: 84
The Weather Channel
2018 Actual Number
15 Named Storms
2 Major Hurricanes
Many including myself got the forecast close. The 2018 Hurricane Season was forecasted about right, not over or under. There is always room for improvement.
Regardless of forecast, I think 2019 could be an interesting hurricane season.