The Wrath Of Dorian Part 3

Hurricane Dorian does not want to give up for sure. It keeps causing all types of mayhem. It just wants to cause more trouble. Dorian has done at least $7 billion in damage. At least 30 people have died in the Bahamas. I would not be surprised if the death toll is going to be much higher.

Currently, Dorian is a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. It has a central pressure of 958 millibar. Dorian is moving at 13 mph to the northeast. Much faster than it had been previously, especially over the Bahamas. Dorian is a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 60 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 220 miles.

Here is the most recent Doppler radar image from NWS Wilmington.

Wilmington is getting hammered by strong wind, storm surge, and heavy rain from Dorian. It is going to be a long night for North Carolina.

Coastal North Carolina is dealing with hurricane force winds. Tropical force winds covers most of South Carolina and North Carolina. Some may experience hurricane force wind gust, especially near the coast. I got the wind extent from National Hurricane Center.

Where does Dorian go from here? Here is a forecast model I created to make a heat map from the latest forecast, which is 0000Z. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

It is possible that Hurricane Dorian could make landfall along the Outer Banks. It is also likely that Dorian could go out into the Atlantic Ocean without making landfall. I consider the eyewall going over land as a landfall as the eyewall is the strongest part of the hurricane. It happened with Ivan as it ravaged the Caribbean in 2004. The Eastern Seaboard is likely to feel Dorian in the form of strong winds, high waves, and heavy rain. There is going to be dangerous rip current at the beaches. The intensity forecast models are consistent on Hurricane Dorian weakening over time. One has it going back to Category 3 hurricane.

It could happen, but I think it will remain a Category 2 hurricane as it goes along North Carolina and Virginia.

Here is what I think will happen.
-North Carolina and Virginia will be impacted by Dorian during the night.
-High waves, storm surge, strong wind, and heavy rain will impact the East Coast.
-The death toll is likely going to rise, especially in the Bahamas

The Wrath Of Dorian Part 2

Hurricane Dorian is now a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. It is also a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 70 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 195 miles. It is moving at a rather fast 7 mph to the north. That is fast compared to the fact that it lingered over the Bahamas for two days! It only moved 1 to 2 mph!

Since it lingered for a couple of days, one wonders how much rain could of fallen over the Bahamas on top of the deadly storm surge that has claimed at least 20 lives. One rule of thumb to figure out how much rain could fall is 100 divided by the forward motion speed in mph. If a hurricane is moving at 10 mph, you divide 100 by 10 and get 10, which is 10 inches of rain. Dorian moved at 1 to 2 mph, which means 50 to 100 inches of rain has fallen.

Hurricanes that have moved slowly often dump extremely heavy rain. Wilma in 2005 dumped up to 62 inches, while Harvey in 2017 dumped up to 70 inches. The highest rainfall from an Atlantic hurricane is 135 inches from the 1909 Greater Antilles Hurricane. The wettest tropical cyclone known is Tropical Cyclone Hyacinthe, which dumped 253 inches of rain! Here is a list of wettest tropical cyclones. If rain was measured from Dorian, I suspect it would be one of the wettest on record.

Hurricane Dorian is fairly close to land. NWS Jacksonville Doppler radar picks up Dorian. Many are getting squall lines with wind and heavy rain.

It is moving to the north with a wobble to the northwest. Many wonder where Hurricane Dorian will go. Could Dorian also make landfall? Here is a forecast model I created a heat map from the latest forecast, which is 0000Z. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

I do not like using exact path forecasts as I think heat maps give a better idea of where a hurricane could go and/or make landfall. Hurricane Dorian could make landfall on South Carolina and North Carolina. Everyone who needed to evacuate should of evacuated by now. Anyone who stayed behind is going to have to deal with storm surge on top of strong wind and heavy rain. That is regardless of Dorian makes landfall or not. The other concern is since Dorian is now a major hurricane, could it further intensify?

Most forecast models have Dorian as a Category 3 and weakening as it heads further north. Since it is over the Gulf Stream, there is a chance that Dorian could get stronger and become a Category 4 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Dorian becomes a Category 4 hurricane before it gets close to the Carolinas.

As for the Bahamas, I suspect the death toll could be high. A large area has been leveled by Hurricane Dorian. It is going to be a long road to recovery for the people of the Bahamas.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Dorian may become a category 4 hurricane.
-The East Coast will be impacted by Dorian regardless of where it goes.
-High waves, storm surge, strong wind, and heavy rain will impact the East Coast.

The Wrath Of Dorian Part 1

Hurricane Dorian was a monster Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph/298 kmh winds with 910 millibars. Gust are as high as 240 mph/386 kmh! To make matters worse, it slows down to nearly stationary and lingers. It all happened in the Bahamas. They had to deal with howling and deafening winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rain for nearly 48 hours. Let that sink in. The death toll is at least 5 to 50. Last count it is at seven and likely climbing. Sixty percent of Grand Bahama Island is flooded. There are reports of dead bodies floating along with debris. Minister of Agriculture and Marine Resources Michael Pintard’s home in Grand Bahamas has monster storm surge flooding his house. He estimates the storm surge is 20 to 25 feet. That puts in on par with Camille and Ike. I would not be surprised if the death toll is going to be high. I am not going to say how many have died at this point.

Many along the East Coast are wondering where Dorian will go. It had lingered for two days over the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center has Dorian as a large Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph/161 kmh winds. Many are understandably on edge on where Dorian goes. Here is a forecast model I created a heat map from the latest forecast, which is 0000Z. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

There is a chance that Dorian could make landfall from Florida to North Carolina. It could go across the Eastern Seaboard and go over New York City and Boston. The forecast models have not done great in where Dorian went as it lingered over the Bahamas. Slow moving tropical cyclones are notoriously difficult to forecast. Case in point, Harvey. There is also an equal chance that Dorian stays offshore. This leads to the next question, how strong will Dorian be and will it intensify again.

Some forecast model have Dorian becoming a major hurricane again. Most keep Dorian as Category 2 hurricane. The intensity have Dorian weakening as it goes further north. Intensity forecast models are not that reliable. I would not be surprised if Dorian becomes a major hurricane again.

Regardless of where and how strong Dorian is, everyone along the East Coast should prepare for Dorian. It could get really bad.

The tropics are heating up and we now have Fernand and Tropical Depression 8, which could be Gabrielle. I will focus on Fernand as it is in the Gulf Of Mexico. Tropical Depression 8 or future Gabrielle is out in the Atlantic and poses little threat to any land area at this time. Fernand is a tropical storm with 50 mph/80 kmh wind. Here is a forecast model I created a heat map with mix of the latest forecast, which is 0000Z. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

Most forecast models have Fernand making landfall into Mexico. Very small chance it could go further north. It looks to be a Mexican weather event. The intensity forecast model have it as a tropical storm. One has it as a hurricane.

It is possible that Fernand could become a hurricane before it makes landfall on Wednesday. Humberto in 2007 rapidly became a hurricane before it made landfall on Texas in 2007.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Dorian may become a major hurricane again.
-The East Coast will be impacted by Dorian regardless of where it goes.
-High waves, storm surge, strong wind, and heavy rain will impact the East Coast.
-Fernand is likely to dump heavy rain in Mexico.
-Texas likely will get the outer bands.

The hurricane season is heating up. It is going to be a rough one.

Hurricane Dorian Part 2

Hurricane Dorian is over the Atlantic getting better organized. The latest from the National Hurricane Center has it as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph or 169 km/h winds. Looks like Dorian could be a major hurricane soon. Here is the intensity forecast model.

Most have it intensifying into a Category 3 to 4 hurricane gradually. One has it intensifying into a Category 4 in 24 hours. I would not be surprised if Dorian becomes a Category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. I looked at hurricane forecast models at Tropical Tidbits.

HWRF and HWRF-P 915 Millibars and 160 MPH

HMON 925 Millibars and 165 MPH

GFS 958 Millibars and 105 MPH

CMC 980 Millibars and 70 MPH

The HWRF and HWRF-P (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model) have the lowest pressure, while HMON (Hurricanes In A Multi-Scale Ocean) has the highest wind. They have Dorian as a Category 5 hurricane! GFS has it as a Category 2 hurricane, while Canadian as it as a strong tropical storm. If Dorian was a Category 5 hurricane barreling towards Florida, it would be really bad. It would be the second Category 5 hurricane to hit Florida in just barely a year after Hurricane Michael ravaged the Florida Panhandle.

If we average out the lowest pressure, it comes out at 944.5 or 945 millibars with average winds of 125 mph. That would make Dorian a Category 3 hurricane. Intensity forecast models are generally not reliable. So I would take them with a grain of salt. They sometimes do get the intensity correct.

The million dollar question is where does Dorian go? Here is a forecast model I created a heat map with mix of the latest forecast, which is 0000Z and 1800Z GFS ensemble track guidance. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

Looks like most of Florida and Bahamas are at risk. Also, Georgia should keep an eye on Dorian as well. It also looks like it is slowing down as it gets closer to Florida. A slowing Dorian would be bad as it could dump heavy rain over a prolong period and lead to flooding. The flooding would be very bad on top of the storm surge. This could have shades of Harvey. Again, it is too early to tell where and what will Dorian do.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Major hurricane as early as tomorrow morning.
-Labor Day weekend is likely to see any impact from Dorian.
-Dorian could slow down and lead to heavy rain.

Everyone along the Southeast and Bahamas should keep an eye on Dorian. They should prepare for the worst.

Hurricane Dorian Part 1

Hurricane Dorian has ravaged the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands with heavy rain and strong winds. There have been massive flooding. It is currently a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds from the National Hurricane Center. It is strengthening as I type. What everyone is asking is where does Dorian go?

I created a heat map with mix of the latest forecast, which is 0000Z and 1800Z GFS ensemble track guidance. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

Most forecast models have it heading towards Bahamas and Florida. Many wonder where Dorian goes after Florida. It appears it could stay over Florida or enter the Gulf Of Mexico and make landfall from Florida Panhandle to as far west as East Texas. Southeast Texas is not at any risk at this time, but that is subject to change. The other question is how strong will Dorian be?

Most forecast model have Dorian as a Category 3 hurricane. One has it as a Category 4 hurricane. I think Dorian could be a major hurricane as early as tomorrow. I would not be surprised if Dorian ends up being a Category 4 hurricane. The Doppler radar out of San Juan shows an eye is forming in Dorian. It is also night and hurricanes tend to intensify at night.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Major hurricane as early as tomorrow despite intensity forecast having Dorian a major hurricane at the end of the week.
-Florida and Bahamas should prepare for Dorian.
-Labor Day weekend is likely to see any impact from Dorian.

Regardless of forecast, everyone should keep an eye on soon to be Dorian.