Hurricane Dorian has ravaged the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands with heavy rain and strong winds. There have been massive flooding. It is currently a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds from the National Hurricane Center. It is strengthening as I type. What everyone is asking is where does Dorian go?
I created a heat map with mix of the latest forecast, which is 0000Z and 1800Z GFS ensemble track guidance. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.
Most forecast models have it heading towards Bahamas and Florida. Many wonder where Dorian goes after Florida. It appears it could stay over Florida or enter the Gulf Of Mexico and make landfall from Florida Panhandle to as far west as East Texas. Southeast Texas is not at any risk at this time, but that is subject to change. The other question is how strong will Dorian be?
Most forecast model have Dorian as a Category 3 hurricane. One has it as a Category 4 hurricane. I think Dorian could be a major hurricane as early as tomorrow. I would not be surprised if Dorian ends up being a Category 4 hurricane. The Doppler radar out of San Juan shows an eye is forming in Dorian. It is also night and hurricanes tend to intensify at night.
Here is what I think will happen.
-Major hurricane as early as tomorrow despite intensity forecast having Dorian a major hurricane at the end of the week.
-Florida and Bahamas should prepare for Dorian.
-Labor Day weekend is likely to see any impact from Dorian.
Regardless of forecast, everyone should keep an eye on soon to be Dorian.
Texas Hurricane 