Future Harvey And Irma?

This is August and the tropics are heating up. We have Gert in the Atlantic, which does not pose a threat. Let’s cut to the chase and focus on Invest 91L and 92L. Let’s start with 91L. Here is a heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

Looking at the forecast model of where 91L will go, most of have it heading into the Caribbean. There is convergence around Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. From there, it enters into the Gulf of Mexico. Another has it going into Georgia or Carolinas. It is too early to tell where 91L will go. Here is an intensity forecast model for 91L.

Most forecast models have 91L becoming a hurricane in the next 4 days. One model keeps it at barely tropical storm. Last night, one forecast model had Invest 91L as a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph 280 km/h 150 knots wind!

That is really bullish right there! Forecast models, especially intensity forecasts are unreliable. We have a long way to go. Let’s now turn our attention to Invest 92L. Here is a heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

92L has a more northwestward trend. The 10 day forecast has it affecting the East Coast to Canadian Maritime Provinces. Again, it is too early to tell where 92L will go. Here is an intensity forecast model for 92L.

Most forecast models have 92L as a tropical storm in two days. None have 92L as a hurricane. Since 92L is newly identified, the intensity forecast model is going to be on the low side.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance.

The tropics are heating up for sure. I think 91L will be Harvey, while 92L will be Irma.

Atlantic Hurricane Season In August

It is now August and the season is heating up. Where do most August tropical storms and hurricanes form and end up going?

Here is a GIS heat map I created. This is all August tropical storms and hurricanes from 1870 to 2015. The heat map is from within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point.

The Main Development Region (MDR) heats up. The Windward Islands see more tropical cyclones making landfall. Interestingly, there is a dead area around Central Caribbean and Cuba. The Gulf of Mexico and Southeast is very active. Many tropical cyclones form near land in August and make landfall. Some of the of most devastating tropical storms and hurricanes made landfall in August:
Sea Islands (1893)
San Ciriaco (1899)
Monterrey (1909)
1945 Texas Hurricane (1945)
Camille (1969)
Amelia (1978)
David (1979)
Alicia (1983)
Bob (1991)
Andrew (1992)
Charley (1998)
Charley (2004)
Katrina (2005)
Dean (2007)
Irene (2011)

Despite Amelia making landfall on July 31, 1978, the worst aspect was heavy rain from August 1-4, 1978 in Central and West Texas, where up to 46 inches (116.84 centimeters) of rain fell. The costliest hurricane occurred in August, Katrina. The previous prior to Katrina was Andrew. August has produced some of the most devastating tropical storms and hurricanes.

Texas does get hurricane landfalls in August, including major hurricanes like Allen and Alicia. Allen was a Category 5 monster and almost made landfall on Port Mansfield as a Category 5 with 180 mph winds. Had that happened, that would of been really devastating. Allen made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Allen was a very large hurricane upon landfall. Alicia made landfall on Galveston as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. It was Texas’s first billion dollar disaster. Alicia was a medium size hurricane, unlike Allen. Had Alicia been Allen, Carla, or Ike size, it would been much worse.

Atlantic Hurricane Season In July

It is now July and it is the halfway mark of the year. Where do most July tropical storms and hurricanes form and end up going?

Here is a GIS heat map I created. This is all July tropical storms and hurricanes from 1870 to 2015. The heat map is from within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point.

Most July tropical cyclones form in the Gulf of Mexico and off the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida. Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama are at most risk to see a tropical cyclone making landfall in July. America’s 24 hour rainfall record is from a July tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Claudette in 1979. Some of the biggest flood events from tropical storms have occurred in July like Alberto in 1994 and Danny in 1997. Alberto did form in late June, but most of its life was in July, so Alberto can be considered a July tropical cyclone.

Atlantic Hurricane Season In June

As we are in June and hurricane season is heating up. Where do most June tropical storms and hurricanes form and end up going?

Here is a GIS heat map I created. This is all June tropical storms and hurricanes from 1870 to 2015. The heat map is from within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point.

Most June tropical storms and hurricanes form in the Gulf of Mexico, Southwest Caribbean, and off the Carolinas. No surprise that Texas and Florida are most vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes in June.

2016 And 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Christmas is sure looming, but the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is not too far away, six months from now. I am going to also look at 2017 Hurricane Season, which would be second year following the strong El Nino of 2015-2016. That is eighteen months from now at the writing of this article.

Analog Years For 2016 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1878 12/10/2 181 15.1
1889 9/6/0 104 11.6
1897 6/3/0 55 9.2
1942 11/4/1 63 5.7
1958 10/7/5 121 12.1
1998 14/10/3 182 13.0

Here is the overall Atlantic Hurricane Season Statistics

1870-2015 Atlantic Hurricane
Mean
9.82/5.49/2.03
10/5/2 (Round Up

Median
9/5/2

Standard Deviation
4.20/2.62/1.66

ACE
Mean
91.82

Median
83.00

Standard Deviation
53.77

ACE/Storm
Mean
9.38

Median
8.70

Standard Deviation
4.06

I came up with the analog for 2016, since we are in El Nino and once El Nino fades, La Nina comes and it can get strong. It is based on past El Nino and warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Here is the statistics for 2016 Analog Season.

2016
Mean
10.33/6.67/1.83
11/7/2 (Round Up)

Median
10.50/6.50/1.50
11/7/2 (Round Up)

Standard Deviation
2.73/2.94/1.94

ACE
Mean
117.67

Median
112.50

Standard Deviation
55.25

ACE/Storm
Mean
11.12

Median
11.85

Standard Deviation
3.28

Looking at it, it is above average ranging from number of storms and hurricanes. Major hurricanes is about the same. However, keep in mind, anything before satellite should taken with a grain of salt. Seasons prior to satellite would of likely had more storms than recorded, but they could be in the middle of the Atlantic or some short lived tropical storm. Seasons like 1889 and 1897 likely had major hurricanes.

So, what is my prediction for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
10 to 16 named storms, likely 14 named storms
6 to 10 hurricanes, likely 8 hurricanes
2 to 5 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 110 to 190 with ACE likely of 130 to 160

Looks to be an active 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Here is a GIS heat map I created for 2016 analog seasons. It is within 300 miles.

2016DecemberAnalogHurricaneHeatMap

Looking at the heat map, there are areas most at risk. Off the Eastern Seaboard with North Carolina most at risk. Haiti and Dominican Republic, Caribbean and Cuba, Southwest Florida, and Gulf of Mexico. Anywhere is at risk, but those areas especially are the ones to keep an eye on. Let’s see what 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast.

Analog Years For 2017 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1879 8/6/2 64 8.0
1890 4/2/1 33 8.3
1898 11/5/1 113 10.3
1943 10/5/2 94 9.4
1959 11/7/2 77 7.0
1999 12/8/5 177 14.8

I came up with the analog for 2017, based on the second year following El Nino. Warm AMO is taken into account. Here is the statistics for 2017 Analog Season.

2017
Mean
9.33/5.50/2.17
10/6/2 (Round Up)

Median
10.50/5.50/2.00
11/6/2 (Round Up)

Standard Deviation
2.94/2.07/1.47

ACE
Mean
93

Median
85.50

Standard Deviation
49.30

ACE/Storm
Mean
9.63

Median
8.85

Standard Deviation
2.78

Looking at it, 2017 is closer to average than 2016. Interestingly, there are more major hurricanes on average than compared to 2016 analog seasons. Still, looking at the actual analog seasons, it is generally less active. Again, keep in mind, anything before satellite should be taken with a grain of salt. There were likely more storms before satellite era that went undetected.

So, what is my prediction for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
9 to 14 named storms, likely 12 named storms
4 to 9 hurricanes, likely 7 hurricanes
2 to 4 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 100 to 180 with ACE likely of 120 to 150

Here is a GIS heat map I created for 2017 analog seasons. It is within 300 miles.

2017DecemberAnalogHurricaneHeatMap

Looking at the hot spots, West Indies, Lesser Antilles, Caribbean and Cuba, Off the Eastern Seaboard, Bahamas, and Western Gulf of Mexico with Texas and Louisiana at most risk. Again, anywhere is at risk, but those areas especially are the ones to keep an eye on.

The 2016 and 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast is all preliminary at this time. It is subject to change. I should have a better idea about the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season in April 2016 and for 2017, April 2017. That would be sixteen months from now of course. This is just a thought because of the strong El Nino we have and what impact a strong El Nino has on the Atlantic. By Summer 2016, it could be still El Nino. It could also be Neutral or La Nina by than. Until than, please check back in April 2016 for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast.

The Tropical Atlantic Is Heating Up For 9/13/2015

We are in mid September and the tropics are heating up. There are three areas of interest in the tropics; Invest 93L, 94L, and 95L.

20150915_GOES-EAST_TATL_AVN_0145Z

Invest 94L is the closest to Texas. 94L has a low chance of development. It is close to land and has to contend with wind shear. Here is the 5 day forecast of where 94L will go.

20150915_Invest94L_0000Z

Most have it going to Mexico. One has it going into Texas, which is an outlier. Another has it going south into the Yucatan Peninsula. I do not think 94L will become tropical. Even the intensity forecast models do not support it.

20150915_94L_Intensity_0000Z

Most forecast models have 94L below tropical depression. A couple of models have it as a tropical storm in the next two days. Two models have 94L as a tropical storm in five days. Forecasting intensity has a long way to go.

Verdict: Invest 94L will not develop into something tropical.

Now, let’s go to Invest 93L. I think this one could develop in the next couple of days if conditions are right. It has to deal with wind shear and dry Saharan air, which has been persistent due to El Nino. The forecast models are hinting it could become a named storm within 24 hours. It would be Ida.

20150915_93L_Intensity_0000Z

I am not too sure if 93L will develop. If so, it will probably develop into a tropical storm at most.

20150915_Invest93L_0000Z

Most forecast models keep 93L out to sea. When a storm intensifies into in the middle of the Atlantic, they tend to be more influenced by upper air patterns. This holds true with hurricanes.

Verdict: Invest 93L could develop, but will not hold my breath for it.

Finally, let’s look at Invest 95L. It just came off of West Africa. 95L has a better chance of developing in the next five days. One thing about Invest 93L, it has to also deal with dry air. That could favor 95L as it can intensify. I think 95L could become Ida or Joaquin, which ever develops first.

20150915_95L_Intensity_0000Z

Some of the forecast models have 95L as a hurricane in the next two to three days. It peaks as a Category 2 hurricane. If Ida was to develop, I would not be surprised if 95L became a Category 3 hurricane. Now, where does it go?

20150915_Invest95L_0000Z

Invest 95L has a more west northwest direction. Even five days later, it is still in the middle of the Atlantic. Could it pose a threat to land? Depending how fast it develops. The slower it develops, the better chance that it could pose a threat to land.

Verdict: Invest 95L is the one to watch this week.

We are in the peak month of hurricane season. So, the tropics are heating up.

April 2013 Hurricane Season Forecast

2013 Hurricane Season is fast approaching. Tropical Storm Risk, ImpactWeather, CrownWeather, and Joe Bastardi have issued their April 2013 forecast. Keep in mind this is very preliminary at this time as things change.

Tropical Storm/Hurricane/Major Hurricane ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy ACE/Storm

Colorado State University
18/9/4 ACE: 165

Tropical Storm Risk
15/8/3 ACE: 134

ImpactWeather
16 to 20 Storms/7 to 9 Hurricanes/Did Not Release Major Hurricane Numbers ACE: None

Joe Bastardi
16/12/5 ACE: 165

North Carolina State University
13 to 17 Storms/7 to 10 Hurricanes/3 to 6 Major Hurricanes ACE: None

Right now, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is in a cool phase, while Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is in a warm phase. We are right now in a Neutral phase of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as this past winter was. Most forecast models have ENSO in a Neutral phase to Fall (Northern Hemisphere) or Spring (Southern Hemisphere) 2013. Forecasting El Nino is very tricky and often comes out incorrect as it happened last year and in 2006.

Mid April 2013 IRI/CPC Plume-Based ENSO Forecast

Mid April 2013 IRI/CPC Plume-Based ENSO Forecast

Mid-April 2013 ENSO Predictions Plume

Mid April 2013 ENSO Predictions Plume

Based on phase of PDO, AMO, and previous winter ENSO, the analog seasons for 2013 are 1952, 1960, 1961, 1966, and 2004. Those years started with a Neutral, Weak El Nino, or Weak La Nina and went Neutral, Weak El Nino, or Weak La Nina by the peak of hurricane season to end of the year. 1966 started with Weak El Nino and went to Weak La Nina by end of that year. 2004 started as Neutral and went to Weak El Nino by end of that year. It shows that ENSO is difficult to predict and left leeway as a result. On the other hand, PDO and AMO does not change much. 1952, 1960, 1961, and 1966 were in cool phase of PDO and warm phase of AMO, while 2004 was in warm phase of PDO and AMO. So, how were the analog seasons like.

Analog Years (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1952 7/6/3 87 12.4
1960 7/4/2 88 12.6
1961 11/8/7 205 18.6
1966 11/7/3 145 13.2
2004 15/9/6 224 14.9

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season analogs.

2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season analogs.

All were devastating seasons. 1952 had Hurricane Fox make landfall on Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, making it one of the strongest to make landfall on the island nation. 1960 had a Unnamed Tropical Storm that dumped heavy rain that led to flooding in Texas after a dry spell. Later that season, Hurricane Donna ravaged the the Caribbeans and Florida. 1961 started late, but went into over drive with Carla ravaging the Texas Coast and Hattie ravaging Belize. 1966 had Alma hitting Cuba and Florida, while Inez was a long lived storm that devastated Caribbean, Cuba, Florida, and Mexico. 2004 had Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne ravaged Florida and Alabama within six weeks.

Let’s look at the statistics of the analog seasons.

Mean
10.2/6.8/4.2 149.8 14.4
10/7/4 149.8 14.4

Median
11/7/3 145 13.2

Standard Deviation
3.3/1.9/2.2 63.9 2.6

Let’s look the overall Atlantic Hurricane Season statistics from 1870 to 2012.

Hurricane Season Average (1870-2012)
Mean
9.5/5.5/2.1 92.1 9.7
10/6/2/ 92.1 9.7

Median
9/5/2 84.0 9.1

Standard Deviation
4.1/2.6/1.7 54.0 4.2

The analog years about average number of storms as it is within standard deviation. However, major hurricane, ACE, and ACE/Storm are above average. The analog years 1961 and 2004 have some of the highest ACE on record for the Atlantic basin. This shows it is not number of storms that makes it active, it is how many long lived, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are in a season.

This season may not see as many named storms from 2010 to 2012, but they could be powerful and long lived. Since some of the analog seasons started late like 1961 and 2004, while 1952 had an early start in February. The 2013 season could start late, but I think it will start in June.

However, since 2010, there have been 19 named storms due to the use of satellites. My thinking is the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season could have more named storms than in the analog years.

What is my prediction for this season?
14 to 20 named storms, likely 16 named storms
7 to 10 hurricanes, likely 9 hurricanes
3 to 6 major hurricanes with 5 major hurricanes
ACE is 170 to 230 with ACE likely of 180 to 220.

I think the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season is going to have 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes with ACE of 200. This could be a very active season ahead. The number is subject to change at a later date. I do not expect any El Nino or La Nina to develop at this time. I think this season will most likely be a Neutral ENSO season because of cool PDO, which inhibits any potential El Nino development. This is on top of a warm AMO phase we are in, which started in 1995. Most forecast models show Neutral ENSO, neither La Nina or El Nino.

Let’s see how my May 2012 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2012 season.

9 to 12 named storms, likely 11 named storms
3 to 6 hurricanes, likely 5 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 75 to 100 with ACE likely of 75 to 90.

2012 Actual Number
19 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes
133 ACE

I was off with the number of storms, hurricanes, and ACE. One can call it a bust. However, I was right with the number of major hurricanes as there were two (Michael and Sandy). The reason I made the lower than normal 2012 hurricane season forecast is that I was expecting El Nino to develop, in which many forecast models forecasted. El Nino never developed in 2012 due to a unusually cool PDO in the Fall of 2012. The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season was largely Neutral phase of ENSO, which allowed a more active season.

Regardless of how many storms form and how late it starts, I think no one is going to be safe and there could be multiple major hurricanes making landfall. This could end the drought of major hurricanes making landfall on America, which started after Wilma in 2005. Again, it only takes one to be a devastating season, like in 1983 with Alicia, 1992 with Andrew, or 2012 with Sandy.