Tropical Storm Cindy For 6/20/2017 2200 CDT

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 is now Tropical Storm Cindy. Well, I think, it was Cindy since yesterday. Anyways, let’s cut to the chase. As of 10:00 PM CDT, Cindy is stationary. It has not moved much lately. This complicates forecasting where Cindy will go.

Here is a heat map forecast. It is from ATCF data file. The intensity forecast is also from the same link at UCAR. I also included the 5 day cone from National Hurricane Center.

The heat map is from various ensemble member run within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point. From there, a heat map is generated. There is an eastward trend. However, Texas is not out of any landfall risk. The 5 day cone encompass Southeast Texas. The National Hurricane Center states that tropical cyclones are within the cone 67 percent of the time, which means 33 percent of the time they deviate outside the cone. The heat map shows that it can deviate easily from the cone.

In terms of intensity it has increased to 60 mph with central pressure of 997 millibars. The forecast models keep Cindy as a tropical storm. I do not expect a hurricane. The intensity forecast is from

On top of it, Tropical Storm Cindy is a large tropical storm. It has tropical storm force winds extending up to 275 miles! The western half has tropical storm force winds extending up to 140 miles. Tropical storm force winds are 415 miles across! The east side has larger tropical storm force winds.

The main concern is rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has a seven day total of up to 17 inches around Alabama. Southeast Texas could see to 3 to 7 inches of rain. I would not be surprised if areas see higher totals of 20 inches in some areas. Tropical Storm Cindy is more of a rain event if any. I would be most concerned with heavy rain than wind despite the large area of tropical storm force wind.

Where Cindy goes is anyone’s guess at this point. Forecast models are all over the place. We should know more by tomorrow.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 For 6/19/2017 2100 CDT

Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, which in my opinion should be named as Cindy as Bret is already taken and traversing across South America. A Bret once paid a visit to South Texas as a Category 3 hurricane on August 22, 1999. A Cindy also paid a visit to Southeast Texas as a Category 1 hurricane on September 17, 1963. Cindy was a rainmaker as it dumped nearly 24 inches of rain (61 centimeters) of rain in Deweyville, Texas. Just in 24 hours, 20.60 inches (52.3 centimeters) fell!

Here is a heat map forecast. It is from from , to be more specific from ATCF data file. The intensity forecast is also from the same link at UCAR.

spite the forecast models having go towards Louisiana.

In terms of intensity, it is already a tropical storm.

Most intensity forecast models keep it as a tropical storm. None have Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 as a hurricane at this time. I do not think it will be a hurricane at this time. It will be a messy tropical storm. Most of the heavy rain is east of the center. Even if Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 made landfall over Galveston, most of the rain would be east. If Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 made landfall around Matagorda County, Houston area could get some heavy rain.

Depending on where Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 goes, Southeast Texas could see tropical storm force winds as early as Tuesday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center-Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 I would not be surprised if it is breezy by tomorrow afternoon.

The forecast is subject to change for Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, so please keep an eye on the weather.

Atlantic Hurricane Season In June

As we are in June and hurricane season is heating up. Where do most June tropical storms and hurricanes form and end up going?

Here is a GIS heat map I created. This is all June tropical storms and hurricanes from 1870 to 2015.

Most June tropical storms and hurricanes form in the Gulf of Mexico, Southwest Caribbean, and off the Carolinas. No surprise that Texas and Florida are most vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes in June.

April 2017 Hurricane Season Forecast

It is almost this time of year. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2017. Last year was quite an active hurricane season with Matthew, Nicole and Otto. Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the Northeast Atlantic.

Colorado State University
11/4/2 ACE: 75

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10 to 12 Storms/4 to 6 Hurricanes/1 to 2 Major Hurricanes ACE: 75 to 95

Tropical Storm Risk
11/4/2 ACE: 67

Accuweather
10/5/3

The Weather Channel
12/6/2

The analog years I am using are in which previous winter is La Nina or Neutral and second year after El Nino. The forecast is uncertain is El Nino will develop later in 2017 despite the water showing warming in the Equatorial Pacific, especially off the coast of South America.

2017
2015-2016 El Nino
2016-2017 La Nina
2017/2017-2018 El Nino/Neutral?

Based on this, the analog years are 1901, 1913, 1972, 1989, 2004, 2006, and 2009. They happened two years after El Nino and came off of a La Nina. Of course, there are other factors in play besides El Nino. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), Southern Ocean/Roaring Forties, and Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR).

Analog Years For 2017 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1901 13/6/0 99 7.6
1972 7/3/0 36 5.1
1989 11/7/2 135 12.3
2004 15/9/6 227 15.1
2006 10/5/2 79 7.9
2009 9/3/2 53 5.9

So, what affect did those analog seasons have?
1901
Tropical Storm #2 made landfall on Matagorda, Texas on July 10, 1901 with 50 mph winds. This comes 10 months after the devastating Galveston Hurricane on September 8-9, 1900, which claimed 12,000 lives.

Hurricane #4 is known as the 1901 Louisiana Hurricane. The hurricane formed southwest of Azores on August 2, 1901. It traversed the Atlantic before making landfall on Florida on August 11, 1901. It emerges into the Gulf of Mexico and intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane due to the Loop Current on August 12, 1901. The hurricane makes landfall on Buras, Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph wind and that makes a second landfall on Ocean Springs, Mississippi on August 15, 1901. Buras reports 4 feet of water, while New Orleans sees the Mississippi River rise by 7 feet. Up to 15 people are known to have died and inflicted $1 million of damages.

1972
1972 was a largely quiet season, but will be most remembered for Hurricane Agnes. It was a hurricane of non-tropical origin that formed over Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico on June 14, 1972. The tropical depression exits Yucatan into the Yucatan Channel. Agnes brushes Western Cuba as it heads towards Gulf of Mexico. Agnes becomes a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on June 18, 1972 as it is moving northwards towards Florida. Agnes weakens slightly as it makes landfall on Cape San Blas, Florida as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph, but likely a tropical storm as there was no sustained hurricane force winds reported. Agnes produced 7 foot storm surge and heavy rain in Florida. There is also a tornado outbreak in Florida from Agnes, which claimed 7 lives. A total of 9 people died in Florida from Agnes. Agnes is responsible for the deadliest tornado outbreak from a tropical cyclone. Agnes continues to weaken as it moves further inland. Agnes goes over the Atlantic on June 22, 1972 as a tropical storm, which developed over North Carolina. Agnes intensifies into a 70 mph tropical storm and makes landfall in Suffolk County east of New York City on June 22, 1972 with 65 mph winds. Once inland, Agnes becomes an extratropical storm. From there, Agnes starts dumping heavy rain throughout a large area of the Northeast from June 23 to 25, 1972. Many areas see 10 to 15 inches of rain including 19 inches of rain in Pennsylvia. Some areas likely saw higher amounts of rain. Pennsylvania took the brunt of Agnes from the heavy rain and massive flooding. Many other states were hit hard from Virginia, Maryland, New York, Ohio, and West Virginia. At least 119 people died in America from flooding, including 50 in Pennsylvania. On top of it, Agnes did $2.1 billion in damages, the most at the time. Agnes was not a major hurricane and will be remembered as an epic flood event in the Northeast, particularly in Pennsylvania.

1989
Before 2001 Tropical Storm Allison, there was 1989 Tropical Storm Allison, which formed from remnant of East Pacific Hurricane Cosme. Cosme made landfall east of Acapulco as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Allison paid a visit to the Upper Texas Coast on June 27, 1989 with 50 mph wind. Many areas in Texas saw 10 to 20 inches of rain. Like 2001 Allison, 1989 Allison loops over Texas, which dumps heavy rain over Northern and Central Louisiana. Many areas saw 15 to 20 inches including 30 inches at Winnfield, Louisiana. Eleven people lost their life in Texas Louisiana, and Mississippi.

Hurricane Chantal is the first hurricane to strike the Upper Texas Coast in 1989. Chantal is a small hurricane that made landfall on High Island, Texas on August 1, 1989 as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds and central pressure of 984 millibars. The highest winds is 70 mph with gusts as high as 105 mph. Many areas see 50 to 65 mph winds. Chantal produced three feet storm surge at Galveston. An area from Southern Harris County, Fort Bend, and Galveston County saw 8 to 12 inches of rain with amounts as high as 20 inches in Friendswood. One interesting aspect is that the “dirty” side of Chantal was on the southwest side of the hurricane, which produced most of the heavy rain. Thirteen people die, including 11 offshore.

Hurricane Hugo is the most intense hurricane of 1989, which peaked at 160 mph and central pressure of 918 millibars. Hugo was a Cape Verde storm as it formed from a tropical wave that came off of West Africa on September 9, 1989. Hugo became a tropical depression once the tropical wave left Africa. Hugo undergoes rapid intensification over the Atlantic. Hugo first encounter with land as it crosses between Guadeloupe and Montserrat on September 17, 1989 as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds. Gusts are as high as 210 mph! Guadeloupe is ravaged by strong winds and 8 feet storm surge as many homes are destroyed on top of 10 lives lost. A gust of 184 mph is recorded from a French research ship. Montserrat is ravaged by 20 feet storm surge as almost every house is damaged! Almost everyone are left homeless as a result. 21 people die in Montserrat. Hugo than makes its first landfall on St. Croix. A slowing Hugo puts St. Croix under prolonged hurricane force winds as high wave pelt the island. 90 percent of buildings are leveled and the infrastructure is destroyed by Hugo. The damage is a staggering $1 billion for St. Croix. Later that day, Hugo makes landfall on Vieques and Fajardo, Puerto Rico as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. The highest sustained winds are 102 mph with gusts as high as 153 mph. Hugo ravages eastern Puerto Rico and decimates the crops. Hugo goes northward as a Category 2 hurricane. Hugo undergoes intensification to a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph and central pressure of 944 millibars. Hugo is heading towards America. On the night of September 21, 1989, Hugo makes landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph and central pressure of 934 millibars. The highest wind is 119 mph with gusts of 179 mph! Many areas see 80 to 120 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 180 mph. Hugo produces monster storm surge in the Charleston area due to its large size. Twenty feet storm surge are reported as it floods the coastal area. The fast motion of Hugo does not lead to massive flooding. 35 people lost their life in America and costliest hurricane at the time prior to Andrew in 1992.

Hurricane Jerry is the second hurricane to hit the Upper Texas Coast in 1989. It formed in the Bay of Campeche on October 12, 1989. Jerry became a Category 1 hurricane on October 15, 1989. As Jerry approaches the Upper Texas Coast, it continues to intensify. By the time it is getting closer to the Upper Texas Coast on October 16, 1989, it has 85 mph winds. Later that day, Jerry makes landfall on Jamaica Beach. Galveston sees 75 mph winds with gusts as high as 100 mph. The storm surge destroys a section of State Highway 87. Houston does not feel much impact from Jerry due to it small size. Many areas saw 2 to 4 inches with highest amount of over 6 inches in Silsbee. Three people died from Jerry all in Galveston as they were driving on the Galveston Sea Wall.

2004
Hurricane Charley is first of the four hurricanes to ravage Florida in the 2004 season. Charley formed over Barbados on August 9, 2004. Two days later, Charley becomes a hurricane south of Jamaica. As Charley heads towards Cayman, intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane and continues to intensify into Category 3 as it heads closer to Cuba. Charley makes landfall close to Punta Cayamas with 120 mph. The highest winds is 120 mph with gusts of 180 mph over Cuba. Over 13 feet storm is measured in Cuba. Charley continues traverses over Cuba and is west of Havana. Charley emerges from Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph and its first landfall on Florida is Dry Tortuga. A cold front is steering Charley towards Southwest Florida. Forecast models have Charley hitting Tampa Bay as a Category 3 hurricane. As it gets closer to the mainland, Charley undergoes rapid intensification into a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds and 941 millibars. Charley first struck Cayo Costa and than Punta Gorda as a Category 4 hurricane. Charley produce up to 13 feet storm surge in Florida. The highest sustain winds is 128 mph with gusts of 192 mph! The highest measure gust is 172 mph out of Charlotte Regional Medical Center which was before anemometer failed. Charley travels along Interstate 4 and ravages Orlando as a Category 1 hurricane. Many areas see 5 to 8 inches of rain from Charley. Charley emerges into the Atlantic as a Category 1 hurricane. Than it makes landfall Cape Romain and North Myrtle Beach as a Category 1 hurricane. The highest wind is 63 mph with gusts of 96 mph. Charley is the first hurricane to hit South Carolina since Hugo in 1989. Charley dumps 3 to 7 inches of rain and produces 4 to 6 feet storm surge. Once Charley is gone, it claims 15 lives, mostly in Florida. There are 20 indirect deaths, which brings total to 35. Charley also does $16.3 billion in damages.

As Florida is recovering from Hurricane Charley, another storm forms off the Cape Verde Islands, Frances. Frances forms off the Cape Verde on August 24, 2004 and becomes a tropical storm the next day. Frances gains intensity is it traverses over the Atlantic, it undergoes rapid intensification and becomes a hurricane on August 26. Frances intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds. Frances undergoes eyewall replacement cycle, causing it to weaken to Category 3 hurricane. AS Frances travels westward and intensifies into a Category 4 with 145 mph winds on September 2, 2004 as it begins to ravage Bahama. Frances weakens into a Category 3 hurricane due to wind shear as it is over Bahamas. Frances maintains Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph as it gets closer to Florida. Frances is a large hurricane with a large eye. To make matters worse, France is moving slowly as it gets closer to Florida. Frances makes landfall on Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds on September 5, 2004. Frances ravages Florida with strong winds and heavy rain. Many areas in Florida see 10 to 20 inches of rain, which leads to flooding. As Frances is leaving Florida, it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall on Aucilla River, Florida as a tropical storm. As Frances weakens, it becomes a huge rainmaker for the Southeast. The Appalachian Mountains draw more moisture out of the storm leading the heavy rain. Many areas in North Carolina see over 20 inches of rain including nearly 24 inches of rain in Mount Mitchell. The flooding causes Asheville to have no water for several days. There are 7 people killed and 43 indirect deaths, which brings the total of 50.

If things got worse, it does, as a tropical wave emerges from Africa on August 31, 2004, which becomes a tropical depression on September 2, 2004. The next day it is Tropical Storm Ivan. Ivan is a tropical storm for two days and on September 5, 2004, it becomes a hurricane and rapidly intensifies into a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Ivan first hits Granada as a Category 3 hurricane. Many areas see 80 to 100 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 150 mph. Ivan unleashes devastating winds and destroys numerous buildings including a prison, which allows prisoners to escape causing more trouble. Most of the island is leveled by Ivan as it claims 39 lives. Ivan enters the Caribbean and rapidly intensifies into a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph. Ivan comes approaches Jamaica on September 11, 2004 and pelts the nation with hurricane force wind and heavy rain. 17,000 people are left homeless from flooding and strong winds of Ivan. Ivan dumped heavy rain on Jamaica as much as 28 inches of rain! It is very likely the amount are higher. 17 people died in Jamaica. As Ivan moves away from Jamaica, it re-intensifies into a Category 5 hurricane. As Ivan comes closer to Grand Cayman, Ivan peaks at 165 mph and central pressure of 910 millibars. Ivan is the tenth most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic as of 2017. The strong winds of Ivan damage many buildings despite strict building codes. Grand Cayman has winds of 157 mph with gusts as high as 236 mph! Ivan goes between Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba as a Category 5 hurricane. Cuba is being ravaged by full force Category 5 winds and heavy rain. Despite it, there are no reports of casualties in Cuba from Ivan. Ivan enters the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane and maintains it. As Ivan inches closer to the Gulf Coast, people are order to evacuate. The Superdome in New Orleans becomes a “shelter of last resort”, which had been used with Hurricane Georges in 1998. Many evacuate New Orleans as it most of the city is below sea level and would be very vulnerable to storm surge. However, Ivan goes east of New Orleans and makes landfall on Gulf Shore, Alabama as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds in the small hours of September 16, 2004. Alabama and Florida are hammered by strong winds of 80 to 100 mph with gusts of 120 to 150 mph on top of 15 foot storm surge. Ivan spawned numerous tornadoes, a total of 117, which is the most from a hurricane. On top of it, there is heavy rain of 10 to 15 inches as causes widespread flooding. Ivan moves further inland and weakens into a tropical storm. Appalachian Mountains are getting more heavy rain as it has been flooded by Hurricane Frances several weeks earlier. Part of Ivan break away and moves eastward back into the Atlantic and loops towards Florida. That piece of Ivan enters the Gulf of Mexico and begins to reorganize. By the time it is near Texas/Louisiana, Ivan becomes a tropical depression and tropical storm on September 22, 2004. Ivan makes landfall on Holly Beach, Louisiana as a tropical depression. Some areas in Louisiana and Texas had up to 8 inches of rain. Ivan claimed 92 lives and including 32 indirect deaths, which brings the total to 124 lives.

As Ivan is entering the Gulf of Mexico, a tropical depression develops east of Guadaloupe on September 13, 2004, which made landfall on the island nation. Many areas in Guadaloupe see 8 to 12 inches of rain. The next day it becomes Tropical Storm Jeanne as moves westward towards the Virgin Islands. On September 15, 2004, Jeanne makes landfall on Yabucoa, Puerto Rico as a tropical storm and travels over the island. Many areas see 5 to 10 inches of rain with the highest amount of nearly 24 inches in Vieques. Eight people have died from Jeanne in Puerto Rico. Jeanne exits Puerto Rico and becomes a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds before it makes landfall on the eastern tip of Dominican Republic September 16, 2004. Jeanne traverses on the north side of Hispanola and weakening due to interaction with the mountains. Despite weakening, Jeanne is dumping heavy rain over Haiti and Dominican Republic for 30 hours. The prolonged heavy rain triggers widespread flooding and deadly mudslide in Haiti and Dominican Republic. The highest reported total is 13 inches with totals possibly going as much as 40 inches of rain in the mountains. The coastal city of Gonaives is hardest hit by flooding from Jeanne. At least 2,900 people are known to have died in the city. Throughout Haiti, at least 3,000 people have died from Jeanne. In Dominican Republic, 18 people have died from Jeanne from deadly flooding. Jeanne is now a tropical depression as it exits Hispanola on September 17, 2004. Jeanne lingers east of Bahamas and becomes a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds on September 20, 2004. Jeanne loops around the Atlantic as a hurricane and moves westward towards the Bahamas. Jeanne continues to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph as it hits Abaco Island, Bahamas on September 25, 2004. Jeanne continues westward towards hurricane ravaged Florida. On the night of September 25, 2004, Jeanne makes landfall just two miles away from where Frances made landfall on Hutchinson Island as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds and 950 millibars, which is the peak of Jeanne. Jeanne produces 6 foot storm surge in Florida. Many areas see 60 to 90 mph winds with gusts of 90 to 135 mph. Many areas see 5 to 8 inches of rain with totals as high as nearly 13 inches of rain. Jeanne weakens as it is over Florida and moves northward dumping heavy rain throughout the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region. It is unclear how much of the damage is from Charley, Frances or Jeanne. Regardless, Jeanne did a total of $7.66 billion in damages. Jeanne claims over 3,000 lives and exceeds Katrina and Stan in 2005. Jeanne is the deadliest hurricane of the 2000s.

2006
Tropical Storm Alberto formed between Cuba and Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The storm peaks at 70 mph west of Tampa Bay on June 12, 2006 over the Loop Current. Alberto makes landfall on Taylor County, Florida on June 13, 2006 with 45 mph winds. Many areas in the Southeastern US see 3 to 7 inches of rain, which leads to flooding. Grand Cayman records up 22.72 inches of rain in 24 hours. Many areas in Cuba see 7 to 12 inches of rain, including 17.52 inches in Pinar del Rio province, Cuba. Two people died in Florida, and one died in North Carolina. Four sailors off the coast of Newfoundland Canada went missing when Alberto is an extratropical storm.

Hurricane Ernesto formed west of Grenada on August 24, 2006. It becomes a hurricane southwest of Haiti on August 27, 2006 with 75 mph winds. Ernesto weakens as it interacts with the mountains of Haiti and Dominican Republic. Ernesto brushes the western tip of Haiti on August 28, 2006 as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Than Ernesto makes landfall near Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. Ernesto continues northwestward towards Cuba, first hitting Plantation Key, Florida, and than Miami-Dade County as a tropical storm. Ernesto traverses over Florida be emerging over the Atlantic, which intensifies to 70 mph and possibly a Category 1 hurricane. Ernesto makes landfall on Oak Island, North Carolina on August 31, 2006. Haiti sees up to 11 inches of rain and strong winds. Cuba sees rain amounts of 2 to 5 inches of rain with highest of 7.46 inches in Nuevitas, Camagüey. Florida sees 3 to 6 inches of rain with highest of 8.72 inches at South Golden Gate, Florida. The Carolina sees 4 to 8 inches of rain with 14.61 inches being the highest at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. Five people died in Haiti, while two died in Virginia when Ernesto is extratropical storm.

2009
Hurricane Bill is the most intense hurricane for 2009 as it was a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds and central pressure of 943 millibars. On August 22-23, 2009, the outerbands of Bill affect the Eastern Seaboard, particularly Massachusetts. Bill dumps heavy rain and produces numerous high waves on the East Coast. Hurricane Bill makes landfall on Point Rosie, Newfoundland as a 70 mph tropical storm. Many areas in Newfoundland and Canadian Maritime provinces experience strong winds and heavy rain. The coastal areas are pelted by high waves that a buoy recorded 87 feet waves!

Hurricane Ida was a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds and central pressure of 975 millibars. However, it is better remembered as a powerful Nor’easter dubbed Nor’Ida. The storm would hammer the East Coast from November 11 to 17, 2009 with heavy rain and strong winds. The highest rainfall total is 18 inches of rain in Virginia. The storm also produce over 7 foot storm surge, which is on par with Hurricane Isabel in 2003.

Some of the analog seasons are inactive like 1972, but are very memorable. It shows it only takes just one to make a huge difference. Some are very active and deadly like 1989 and 2004. There were also Category 5 hurricanes in 1989 and 2004.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms.

The high risk areas are Cuba, Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Panhandle, South Florda, Carolinas, Bahamas, and Upper Texas Coast. However, when you look at the whole basin, everyone is at risk for landfall, which is why I never make landfall predictions. Everyone is at equal risk as I always say!

Analog
Mean
10.83/5.5/2.00
11/6/2 (Rounded Up)

Median
10.50/5.50/2.00
11/6/2 (Rounded Up)

Standard Deviation
2.86/2.35/2.19

ACE
Mean
104.83

Median
89

Standard Deviation
69.23

ACE/Storm
Mean
8.99

Median
7.76

Standard Deviation
3.90

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2016.

Mean
9.86/5.50/2.04
10/6/2

Median
9/5/2

Standard Deviation
4.21/2.61/1.66

ACE
Mean
92.18

Median
83

Standard Deviation
53.73

ACE/Storm
Mean
9.38

Median
8.67

Standard Deviation
4.04

The analog seasons are within standard deviation, which indicates this upcoming hurricane season is going to be within average.

What is my prediction for this season?
6 to 12 named storms, likely 10 named storms
3 to 8 hurricanes, likely 6 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 65 to 110 with ACE likely of 70 to 100

This excludes Arlene, which formed earlier in April, which would be 11 named storms. I do not think this season will be as active as last year. Of course, it only takes one to be bad like in 1972 with Agnes.

Let’s see how my April 2016 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2016 season.

7 to 13 named storms, likely 11 named storms
4 to 8 hurricanes, likely 6 hurricanes
2 to 4 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 90 to 150 with ACE likely of 100 to 130

2016 Actual Number
15 Named Storms
7 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
141 ACE

I was off with named storms. I was close with hurricanes, major hurricanes, and ACE. There is always room for improvement either way.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2017 could be an interesting hurricane season. It is the same Atlantic name list used in the devastating 2005 season, which produced Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Of course some of the names are not there with the exception of Emily.

Latest On Hurricane Matthew As Of 11:00 AM EDT October 8, 2016

Hurricane Matthew made landfall on McClellanville, South Carolina with 75 mph winds and central pressure of 967 millibars. The highest wind on land is 64 mph with gusts of 96 mph. Many areas are seeing 40 to 60 mph winds with gusts of 70 to 90 mph.

20161008_14l_windradii_1100edt

Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles, while tropical storm force extend up to 185 miles. Matthew is weakening and could be a tropical storm later today. Intensity forecast have Matthew weakening in the next few days.

20161008_14l_intensity_1200z

Doppler radar out of Wilmington, shows that Matthew is inland. Being close to land has weakened Matthew from a major hurricane.

20161008_kltx_dopplerradar_1114edt

Despite it weakening, Matthew is dumping flooding rain. Flooding will be the major problem for the Southeast, especially for South Carolina and North Carolina. Doppler radar estimate has much as 15 inches of rain near the South Carolina and Georgia border. Areas where South Carolina and North Carolina meet, 6 to 8 inches of rain has fallen so far. More rain is expected to fall in South Carolina and North Carolina.

20161008_kltx_dopplerradar_rainfalltotal_1114edt

20161008_kclx_dopplerradar_rainfalltotal_1123edt

South Carolina could see an additional 4 to 6 inches of rain, which means the total could be 10 to 15 inches of rain. North Carolina could see ab additional 10 inches of rain. North Carolina could see as much as 10 to 15 inches of rain. Some areas could see as much 20 inches of rain.

20161008_14l_72hourrainfalltotal_0504edt

On top of the heavy rain, there is dangerous storm surge. Many areas could see 5 to 7 feet storm surge with isolated areas seeing 10 feet storm surge. Storm surge is more related to size of storm, shallowness of water, and geography. A large Category 1 or 2 hurricane over large area of shallow water with funnel shape area will produce higher storm surge than a small Category 4 or 5 hurricane with deeper waters off the coast. Ike and Sandy produced high storm surge despite being under Category 3 because of their large size and geography of affected areas. Storm surge is the biggest killer in hurricanes. The storm surge will make flooding worse as flood waters cannot drain quickly enough.

20161008_stormsurgefloodingmap_1100edt

Forecast models are all over where Matthew goes. Most have it going eastwards into the Atlantic. Where it goes becomes more complicated. Some have Matthew looping southward towards the Bahamas and even entering the Gulf of Mexico. Some models have it going near Canada. Another fly in the ointment is Tropical Storm Nicole. I do not think it will have much influences due to the small size of the storm.

20161008_14l_1200z_heatmap

Hurricane Matthew is going to be a huge problem for South Carolina and North Carolina. The southern part of Haiti is largely flattened by Matthew. 90 percent of some areas are leveled. The death toll is certainly going to rise. One district, Grand-Anse, at least 470 people have died. I suspect the death toll will be in the thousands. This could be Haiti’s worst hurricane since Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. Jeanne claimed 3,006 people in Haiti. Most of the death was from deadly flooding from heavy rain in the amount of 12 to 15 inches. Most of the death occurred in Gonaïves. Gonaïves had 2,826 of its residence die. Jeanne did not even make landfall as it was a tropical storm.

Latest On Hurricane Matthew As Of 8:00 PM EDT

Hurricane Matthew is getting ever so closer to Florida. It has 130 mph winds and central pressure of 939 millibars as of 8:00 PM EDT. Here is the most recent Doppler radar image.

20161006_kamx_dopplerradar_2016edt

Freeport, Bahamas got hammered by the inner eyewall of Matthew. They experienced 140 mph winds! That means gust as high as 210 mph! I can imagine a lot of damage in Freetown. The latest forecast where Matthew will go is looking less encouraging.

20161006_14l_1800z_heatmap

Looks more likely a Florida landfall as the heat map shows whites over the state. The heat map is within 300 miles radius of forecast point. I created this heat map to make it visually easier to understand. Here is the most recent wind radii map. Once it goes past Florida, it could go over Jacksonville and it could be really bad. Hurricanes very rarely affect that part of Florida. It can go into Georgia, which also rarely sees major hurricanes. The last time Jacksonville area saw a major hurricane was Hurricane Dora in 1964. The last time Georgia saw a major hurricane was in 1898, the 1898 Georgia Hurricane. Both were devastating for that area. South Carolina could also get hit by Matthew. The last time a major hurricane hit South Carolina was Hugo in 1989. Matthew may make landfall on North Carolina. The last major hurricane to hit North Carolina was Fran in 1996.

20161006_14l_windradiiforecast_2000edt

It is quite a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 60 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 185 miles. It is quite a large hurricane. The intensity forecast maintains Category 4 right before it hits Florida.

20161006_14l_intensity_1800z

Despite it weakening, I think there could be last minute intensification, possibly up to Category 5. That would be a horrible prospect. To make matters worse, there is storm surge. Storm surge kills more people than anything in a tropical cyclone. It is what killed most people in Katrina, 1970 Bhola Cyclone, and Tropical Cyclone Nargis. Here is a storm surge map.

20161006_stormsurgefloodingmap_2000edt

Some areas could see storm surge as high as 15 feet. As they say, hide from wind run from water. No need to evacuate from wind unless one lives in a trailer park. People evacuate because of storm surge. Storm surge is very dangerous and can rise quickly. That large amount of water will exert a lot of force.

This is going to be a very horrible weather event for Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. This could be a huge disaster unfolding. As for Haiti, many lives have been lost. At least 283 lives have been lost in Haiti. I expect the death toll to rise. Haiti is the worst place to get hit by hurricanes as they are still reeling from the January 12, 2010 Earthquake that claimed 100,000 lives. It could be very bad for Florida as many chose not to evacuate.

April 2016 Hurricane Season Forecast

20050829_GOES-12_IR_Enhanced_0045Z

Already, Hurricane Alex formed in the Eastern Atlantic in January. It overcame hostile conditions on top of a strong El Nino. What does this mean? It this a harbinger of things to come? Hurricane season is looming as usual as it starts on June 1, 2016.

Tropical Storm/Hurricane/Major Hurricane ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy

Colorado State University
12/5/2 ACE: 90

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
11 to 14 Storms/6 to 8 Hurricanes/2 to 4 Major Hurricanes ACE:105 to 135

Crown Weather Services
11/7/2 ACE: 90

Tropical Storm Risk
12/6/2 ACE: 80

Accuweather
14/8/4

The Weather Channel
14/8/3

Crown Weather Services
11/7/2 ACE: 90

Analog Years For 2016 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1878 12/10/2 15.1
1889 9/6/0 104 11.6
1897 6/3/0 55 9.2
1900 7/3/2 83 11.9
1931 13/3/1 48 3.7
1941 6/4/3 52 8.7
1958 10/7/5 121 12.1
1988 12/5/3 103 8.6
1998 14/10/3 182 13.0

I chose those years because they are coming off of a strong El Nino on top of a warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Any data before satellite should be taken with a grain of salt. It is likely those seasons are more active than reported.

So, what affect did those analog seasons have?

1878
Hurricane #7 formed south of Haiti as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. An American brigantine was wrecked on Tiburon Peninsula with everyone killed. It intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds as it went over Eastern Bahamas. It intensified into Category 3 on September 30 and Category 4 on October 2, which peaked at 140 mph. The hurricane was a major hurricane at a high latitude up to October 8. It likely became an extratropical storm and affected Europe.

Gale of 1878, which is the eleventh storm of the season. A tropical storm formed west of Jamaica on October 18, 1878. Two days later, it became a hurricane made landfall on Cuba the next day as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. It moves northward and makes landfall on Swansboro, North Carolina on the night of October 23, 1878 as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph. Hurricane force winds can be felt throughout the Eastern Seaboard. It merged with an extratropical low over New England. Once it was all over, 71 people lost their life from the storm.

1889
Hurricane #4 formed on September 1 east of Barbados. It made landfall on Puerto Rico as an intensifying Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. The hurricane stalls off the Northeast from September 9 to 12 causing flooding from heavy rain and storm surge. The hurricane claims 40 lives.

1897
Hurricane #2 was first spotted in Straits of Florida on September 10. It is probable it formed further east. It makes landfall as a tropical storm around Marquesas Keys, Florida. Once it exits for the Gulf of Mexico, it intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. It makes landfall on Cameron Parish, Louisiana as a hurricane on September 13. It weakens over Texas. The hurricane claims at least 29 lives in Texas.

Hurricane #5 forms south of Windward Islands on October 9. It is probable it formed further east. The hurricane travels over the Caribbean and turns northwest on October 14 towards Cuba. The hurricane makes landfall on Cuba on October 18 as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph. Most of the deaths are from the sinking of Triton near Pinar del Rio province. The sinking claims 188 lives and 42 people are rescued. The captain committed suicide. The hurricane weakens to a tropical storm and heads to the northwest and makes landfall around Cape Hatteras, North Carolina with 65 mph winds. The storm produce strong winds and heavy rain throughout the Eastern Seaboard. The storm moves eastward into the Atlantic and becomes extratropical.

1900
Great Galveston Hurricane. It made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. It had a central pressure of 936 millibars. The hurricane produced 15 foot storm surge, which proved deadly. Once it past, 12,000 people died, making it one of the deadliest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. Only Great Hurricane of 1780 and Mitch are deadlier. It remains the deadliest disaster in American history, exceeding 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and 9/11. Even with the death toll combine of 9,000, the Great Galveston Hurricane claimed way more lives.

1941
Tropical Storm #1 made landfall between Galveston and Port Arthur as a tropical depression after it peaked as a 60 mph tropical storm.

The 1941 Texas Hurricane is Hurricane #2, which comes a week after Tropical Storm #1. The storm lingers over the Gulf of Mexico before intensifying into a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and central pressure of 942 millibars. The hurricane made landfall late on September 23 as a large 115 mph Category 3 hurricane around Bay City. The hurricane went west of Houston, putting the city on the “dirty” side of the hurricane. Houston received considerable damage from the hurricane. The hurricane claimed 7 lives as it weakened and became extratropical. The extratropical storm would be a problem for Ontario and Quebec, Canada.

Hurricane #4 traverses across the Caribbean. It peaked at 130 mph Category 4 hurricane before making landfall on Cape Gracias a Dios, Honduras on September 27. It went over Central America and hits Belize with 85 mph winds. Once the hurricane exits into Bay of Campeche on September 29 and fizzles. The hurricane claims 43 lives.

The 1941 Florida Hurricane is Hurricane #5, which peaked as a compact Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It formed north of the Virgin Islands. The hurricane rapidly intensifies before it ravages Bahamas. The hurricane makes landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. It is a very small hurricane that dumps light rain. The highest rain is 0.35 inches, which is unusual. The hurricane goes over Gulf of Mexico as a small hurricane before making landfall on Carrabelle, Florida as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. The hurricane went over Georgia causing damage. The hurricane claimed at least 10 lives and was not a rainmaker.

Tropical Storm #6 travereses across the Florida Straits before making landfall at Cedar Key. It stalls over and dumps up to 35 inches of rain in four days between October 17 to 22!

1988
Hurricane Gilbert is the most intense hurricane prior to Wilma. It had a central pressure of 888 millibars and 185 mph winds. It is on top of being one of the largest hurricanes known. It directly hit Jamaica as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Jamaica is ravaged by Gilbert from 19 foot storm surge and heavy rains that claim 49 lives. Once it exits Jamaica. Gilbert undergoes explosive intensification over the Caribbean. Than it hits Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico as a Category 5 hurricane with 165 mph winds. It is the first time since Camille hit the Gulf Coast in 1969 as a Category 5 hurricane. The Yucatan Peninsula is ravaged by strong winds, storm surge, and flooding. Once it exits Yucatan Peninsula, Gilbert goes over Gulf of Mexico. There is concerns that Texas could be hit by Gilbert, prompting evacuations.

1998
Hurricane Bonnie formed east of the Lesser Antilles. As Bonnie moved through the Atlantic, it intensified into a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Bonnie made landfall as a large 110 mph Category 2 hurricane around Wilmington, North Carolina. Many areas saw 6 to 10 inches of rain from Bonnie. Once Bonnie left, it left 5 people dead and $1 billion in damages.

Tropical Storm Charley forms in the Gulf of Mexico and peaked at 70 mph. Not too long after, Charley made landfall around Port Aransas. On August 24, core rains form around the center of Charley, dumping 17 inches of rain on Del Rio and Ciudad Acuña. 26 people lost their life from Charley, mostly from flooding.

Hurricane Earl formed in the Gulf of Mexico from a tropical wave that left Africa on August 17, 1998. Earl intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. It had no discernable eye or eyewall, which is unusual. Earl made landfall around Panama City, Florida as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph. As it traversed the Southeastern US, Earl became extratropical. Once it entered the Atlantic, Earl rapidly intensified as an extratropical storm in the Atlantic with central pressure of 957 millibars. Earl made landfall on eastern Newfoundland.

Tropical Storm Frances formed from a monsoonal low in the Caribbean. It slowly moved into the Gulf of Mexico. The large area of thunderstroms became a tropical depression east of Brownsville, Texas. The lack of sheer and warm water, allowed Frances to strengthen into a large tropical storm as it made landfall around Corpus Christi, Texas as a strong tropical storm. Frances dumped heavy rain over Texas and Louisiana. Many areas saw 10 to 20 inches of rain. 44 inches of rain was reported in Escuintla, Chiapas, Mexico. Frances produced 8 foot storm surge, which is high for a tropical storm. It is due to its very large size.

Hurricane Georges is a long lived and very intense hurricane. A classic Cape Verde storm, which formed from a tropical wave. Georges rapidly intensified into a large Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds as it travesed the Atlantic heading towards Lesser Antilles. It weakened to Category 3 with 115 mph winds as it first made landfall on Antigua. It weakens to a Category 2 before it intensifies to a Category 3 with 115 mph winds before making landfall around Faljardo, Puerto Rico on September 21. It dumps extremely heavy rain over Puerto Rico of up to 30 inches. It exits Puerto Rico and heads for Dominican Republic and Haiti and makes landfall on September 22 as a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane. The mountainous terrain weakens Georges, while dumping extremely heavy rain of 39 inches over Dominican Republic and Haiti. Once Georges left, 589 people die in Hispanola, mostly from flooding. Than Georges heads to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba on September 23. Georges traverses over Cuba dumping heavy rain of up to 24 inches. Georges claims 6 lives in Cuba before heading towards Straits of Florida as an intensifying Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Georges made landfall on Key West with 105 mph winds on September 25. Georges heads to the Gulf of Mexico and makes final landfall on Biloxi, Mississippi as a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane on September 28. Georges stalls and moves slowly east dumping heavy rain of over 38 inches of rain! The Louisiana Superdome is used as a “shelter of last resort”, a first. The Superdome would be used for Ivan in 2004 and lastly with Katrina in 2005 which proved disasterous. Georges long reign of terror claimed 604 lives.

Hurricane Mitch is the most intense since Gilbert in 1988. Mtich formd from a tropical wave that intensified over the Caribbean. It underwent explosive intenisfication On October 25-26. Mitch had a central pressure of 905 millibars and 180 mph winds over the Western Caribbean. Mitch goes over Swan Island during its peak and a schooner, Fantome, gets destroyed, claiming 31 lives on October 27. Guanaja Island is hammered with 120 mph winds for two days, destroying every vegetation on the island. Mitch was forecasted to go north towards Yucatan Peninsula, but went southwards due to upper level ridging. Mitch makes landfall as a 80 mph Category 1 hurricane east of La Ceiba, Honduras on October 29. It lingers over Central America as it dumps extremely heavy rain as it draws moisture from Pacific and Caribbean due to its large circulation. The heavy rain causes deadly mudslides and massive flooding. Some areas record up to 75 inches of rain in the mountains. Very likely that some areas see over 100 inches of rain during its reign. Some rain gauges recorded 25 inches of rain in 6 hours before it got washed away! Mitch moves slowly over Central America dumping heavy rain nonstop, mainly at night. The heavy rain causes massive and deadly mudslides in the mountainous regions. Many areas are flooded greatly. Mitch than goes over the Gulf of Mexico and intensifies into a 60 mph tropical storm before making landfall near Naples, Florida. Many areas see 6 to 10 inches of rain as it spawns 5 tornadoes. Mitch becomes an extratropical storm as it heads to the Atlantic. What was Mitch ravages Ireland and United Kingdom with heavy rain, strong winds, and high waves. Once Mitch is gone for good, at least 19,325 people have died from deadly floods and mudslides. Hurricane Mitch is the deadliest hurricane since the Great Hurricane of 1780, which claimed 28,000 lives! Mitch is one of the deadliest disaster in the Western Hemisphere besides 2010 Haitian Earthquake and Great Hurricane of 1780.

Interesting those analog seasons have two of the deadliest hurricanes, Great Galveston Hurricane and Mitch. Does this mean that 2016 will be a deadly year? No, but anything is possible. Also, interesting to note, many hurricanes made landfall on the East Coast like in 1878 and 1998.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radiusm from the storms.

2016AprilAnalogHurricaneMap

Looking at the heat map, the highest risk areas are Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, Southwest Caribbean, Hispanola, Lesser Antilles, and Eastern Atlantic. However, when you look at the whole basin, everyone is at risk for landfall, which is why I never make landfall predictions. Everyone is at equal risk!

It only takes one to be a bad year, no matter how inactive the season is. Case in point, 1983, a very quiet season. It is best known as Hurricane Alicia ravaging Southeast Texas on Augus 18, 1983. Let’s go to analog statistics.

Analog
Mean
9.89/5.67/2.11
10/6/2 (Rounded up)

Median
10/5/2

Standard Deviation
3.06/2.83/1.62

ACE
Mean
103.22

Median
103

Standard Deviation
51.21

ACE/Storm
Mean
10.43

Median
11.60

Standard Deviation
3.31

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2015.

Mean
9.82/5.49/2.03
10/6/2

Median
9/5/2

Standard Deviation
4.20/2.62/1.66

ACE
Mean
91.85

Median
83

Standard Deviation
53.76

ACE/Storm
Mean
9.38

Median
8.70

Standard Deviation
4.06

The analog seasons are within standard deviation, which indicates this upcoming hurricane season is going to be within averages.

What is my prediction for this season?
7 to 13 named storms, likely 11 named storms
4 to 8 hurricanes, likely 6 hurricanes
2 to 4 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 90 to 150 with ACE likely of 100 to 130

This includes Hurricane Alex that formed in January. Excluding Alex, it would be 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Some of the analog seasons had high ACE/storm, like 1878, 1958, and 1998. Interesting to note they all have 8 at the end.

Let’s see how my April 2015 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2015 season.

6 to 10 named storms, likely 8 named storms
4 to 6 hurricanes, likely 4 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 40 to 90 with ACE likely of 50 to 80

2015 Actual Number
11 Named Storms
4 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes
63 ACE

I was off with named storms. I got it right with hurricanes and major hurricanes. I was withing range for ACE.

Regardless, I think 2016 will be an interesting season. So fasten your seatbelt and prepare for a bumpy ride.