Hot July 2022

The headlines have been dominated by heat waves, wildfires, and floods. America is engulfed in a heat wave regardless of region. The heavy rain and floods claimed at least 37 lives in Eastern Kentucky. Eastern Kentucky has a heat wave on top of it. Northern California has been ravaged by wildfires. July 2022 has been the hottest on record for Houston. It eclipses July 1980, in which America was in midst of a heat wave. How does July 2022 compare for Houston and America? Let’s start with Houston.

Here are charts of high, low, and average temperature for Houston, which is at Bush Intercontinental Airport. The data is from Global Historical Climatology Network – Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3. I calculated using JASP and generated graphs with Apache OpenOffice. The average and standard deviation are from 1969 to 2021. The charts have 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 2 Standard Deviations (2 SD) below and above, and actual temperature. Anything that is above or below 2 SD is considered unusual as it is 95% or greater to exceed the average or mean. Here is the high temperature for July 2022.

The hottest day was 105°F on July 10, 2022. It is the hottest July 10th recorded in Houston. It ties as the hottest July day on record in Houston with July 26, 1954. Houston recorded its hottest July 11th and 13th on record. There are days where July 2022 highs exceeded 2 SD. For the most part, the highs were within 2 SD. Certainly hot, but not extremely hot. Here is the low temperature for July 2022.

The low temperatures in July 2022 were likely to exceed 2 SD compared to high temperatures. There were often above average. There are no days where low temperature is below average. There are multiples days where lows exceeded 2 SD. The highest low temperatures recorded in Houston were on July 10-12 and July 18-20. They broke records for warmest low temperature recorded. The warm low temperatures contributed to July 2022 being warmest on record in Houston. Here is the average temperature for July 2022.

The average temperature exceeded 2 SD due to warm nights and days on July 10-12 and July 18-20. Let’s look at July 1980, the previous hottest July on record in Houston. Here is the high temperature for July 1980.

July 1980 highs were more likely to exceed 2 SD compared to July 2022. Many record July highs in Houston were set in July 1980. Texas and America were engulfed in a heat wave. The 1980 heat wave claimed at least 10,000 lives. The 1980 heat wave claimed more lives than 9/11, Hurricane Katrina or Hurricane Maria. July 1980 had more 100°F days than July 2022. July 1980 had 18 100°F days, while July 2022 had 13 100°F days. July 1980 is certainly hotter than July 2022 on that ground. Here is the low temperature for July 1980.

The low temperatures of July 1980 were within 2 SD. They were more likely to be within the average than July 2022. There were no record warm low temperatures set in July 1980, unlike in July 2022. There are some days in July 1980 that are below average. The low temperature is the reason why July 2022 is the warmest on record. If July 1980 had warm low temperatures of July 2022, it would easily exceed July 2022 as the warmest on record. Here is the average temperature for July 1980.

The average temperature exceeded 2 SD in July 1980. However, they are not on the level of July 2022 in terms of average temperature. July 1980 had normal low temperatures, while July 2022 had warm low temperatures, which kept things warm. Here is a 2 meter temperature anomaly of the Northern Hemisphere for July 2022. It includes America. It is from Daily Mean Composites.

It was certainly hot in America. It was also hot in Europe and East Asia. The cold weather are mostly in Russian Far East, Siberia, Central Asia, Alaska, and Northwest Canada. It was certainly hot in July 2022. Now, if you think July 2022 was really hot, try July 1936. Here is a 2 meter temperature anomaly of the Northern Hemisphere for July 1936. It is from 20th Century Reanalysis Daily Composites.

July 1936 was very hot in America. It was in midst of the Dust Bowl as there was the Great Depression. The Dust Bowl likely exacerbated the Great Depression as farmers suffered greatly. Many records were set in July 1936 and August 1936. The Summer of 1936 is the hottest on record for America. They are yet to be broken to this very day.

Texas’s hottest recorded day occurred on August 12, 1936 in Seymour. Seymour reached a high of 120°F. It also reached 120°F in Monahans on June 28, 1994. They are Texas’s highest recorded temperature and yet to be broken to this very day. Oklahoma’s hottest days (not a mistype as it happened more than once) recorded occurred four times in 1936 in Alva (July 18, 1936), Altus (July 19, 1936 and August 12, 1936), and Poteau (August 10, 1936) as they reached 120°F. They are yet to be broken in Oklahoma to this very day. North Dakota’s hottest recorded day occurred on July 6, 1936 in Steele with a high of 121°F. It is North Dakota’s hottest day recorded. It is yet to be broken to this very day for North Dakota. New York City’s hottest recorded day occurred on July 9, 1936 with a high of 106°F. It remains the hottest day recorded in New York City to this very day. The 1936 Annual Heat Wave Index in America is the highest. It easily exceeds 2022.

The death toll from the July 1936 heat wave is at least 5,000 people. There was a jump in mortality in 1936 compared to 1935. It suggests the heat wave claimed more than 5,000 lives directly and indirectly. America had over 128 million people in 1936. If the July 1936 heat wave happened today with the current population, the death toll would exceed at least 12,000 lives and likely higher.

July 2022 was certainly hot, but it does not come nowhere to July 1936. It was really hot back in 1936. People managed to survive as people did not have air conditioning. Few people had air conditioning in their homes. Some people slept outside at night as it was cooler outside than inside. I would not be surprised if there were heat waves comparable to and exceeding 1936 that occurred in the past.

What will August 2022 be like? We shall see.

Beta Storm And Tropics

It is hard to believe that the Atlantic is at the Greek letters. The last time that happened was in 2005. The Greek letters did come into use until October 2005. So many storms have formed in September 2020. Now, there is Beta off the coast of Texas. It is currently a tropical storm with 60 mph winds and is stationary per National Hurricane Center (NHC).

000
WTNT32 KNHC 192100
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

…BETA NOW STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST…

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…26.6N 92.4W
ABOUT 320 MI…510 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI…395 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…994 MB…29.36 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for Port Aransas, Texas to
High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio
Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued for Port Mansfield, Texas
to Baffin Bay, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for
* Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay,
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and
Corpus Christi Bay
* High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana including Sabine Lake
and Lake Calcasieu

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 92.4 West. Beta has
been nearly stationary for the past several hours. A westward
drift is expected tonight, followed by a slow motion toward the
west-northwest that should continue through late Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas
coast Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Beta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the
Texas coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. A ship near
the center of Beta recently reported winds of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Baffin Bay, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi
Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine
Lake, Calcasieu Lake, San Antonio Bay…2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay…1-3 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas…1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX…1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as
tonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area
along the south Texas coast Sunday night or Monday.

RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long duration
rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday,
Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12
inches with isolated totals of 20 inches beginning Saturday across
southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash
and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding.
Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are
possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near
the Texas coast.

SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and
the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a
cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Here is the forecast model for Beta. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is 1800Z. All GIS maps are created from QGIS. The data and intensity forecast are from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance.

The circular shape of the the heat map tells me this is a low confidence forecast. It is all over the place of where Beta will go in the next few days. The forecast adds a lot of uncertainty on top uncertain times due to COVID-19 pandemic. The only consensus is Texas will be impacted by Beta. The forecast model reminds me of Harvey back in 2017. It lingered over Texas for a few days dumping heavy rain over a large area leading to massive flooding. It is going to be hard to say where Beta will go as the forecast model keep changing. Here is the intensity forecast for Beta.

Most of the intensity forecast models keep Beta as a tropical storm. Intensity forecast model is even less reliable than where it will go. There is a lot of lightning in the main central dense overcast (CDO) and outer rainbands. Here is a lightning flash map from GOES-East CONUS – Geostationary Lightning Mapper.

There is a lot of lightning. Lightning on the outer band can be a sign the storm is intensifying. Here is a study that shows that lightning in the outer bands is a sign of intensification titled Tropical Cyclone Lightning and Rapid Intensity Change.

Abstract
A large sample of Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone cases (2005–10) is used to investigate the relationships between lightning activity and intensity changes for storms over water. The lightning data are obtained from the ground-based World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). The results generally confirm those from previous studies: the average lightning density (strikes per unit area and time) decreases with radius from the storm center; tropical storms tend to have more lightning than hurricanes; intensifying storms tend to have greater lightning density than weakening cyclones; and the lightning density for individual cyclones is very episodic. Results also show that Atlantic tropical cyclones tend to have greater lightning density than east Pacific storms. The largest lightning density values are associated with sheared cyclones that do not intensify very much. The results also show that when the lightning density is compared with intensity change in the subsequent 24 h, Atlantic cyclones that rapidly weaken have a larger inner-core (0–100 km) lightning density than those that rapidly intensify. Thus, large inner-core lightning outbreaks are sometimes a signal that an intensification period is coming to an end. Conversely, the lightning density in the rainband regions (200–300 km) is higher for those cyclones that rapidly intensified in the following 24 h in both the Atlantic and east Pacific. When lightning density parameters are used as input to a discriminant analysis technique, results show that lightning information has the potential to improve the short-term prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensity changes.

The large number of lightning in CDO may suggest that slowing intensification. However, the number of lightning on the outer rainbands indicates that Beta could be intensifying. To make things more complicated, there is is a lot of dry air that Beta has to contend with. Dry air tends to inhibit intensification of tropical cyclones. Here is the most recent water vapor imagery at mid-level. It is from GOES-East.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 09 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M6C09_G16_s20202632046161_e20202632048539_c20202632049048.nc

Depending how much dry air is, Beta may not intensify past tropical storm. So much variables come to play. The intensity forecast is even more uncertain than where it goes. I think Beta will be a strong tropical storm to Category 1 hurricane. I would not rule out Category 2 hurricane, but that is unlikely.

Beta is going to a hard storm to forecast for the next few days. Beta adds a lot of uncertainty on top uncertainty with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hurricane Sally, Wildfires, And COVID-19

The Atlantic is heating up with Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, and Vicky. Rene is no more, while Paulette and Sally are hurricanes. Sally is the biggest threat as it is in the Gulf of Mexico, which I will discuss later. There are monster wildfires burning in California, Oregon, and Washington. This is all on top of the COVID-19 pandemic. As of 9/14/2020, there are over 29 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 with more than 932,000 deaths. There are over 7 million who are currently infected with more than 60,000 who are severely ill. It is from Worldometer. If you want to read my analysis on COVID-19, check out my other blog, The Ebola Zone. 2020 has been nothing but a terrible year all around no matter how one spins it. The whole world is of never ending disasters ranging from public health to weather. So much ground the cover.

The whole West is on fire. The whole West is covered in thick and acrid smoke. It is from Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB)

Here is a heat map of active wildfires in the past 7 days. It is from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), which has a resolution of 375 meters or 1,230 feet. It is from NASA Active Fire Data. The heatmap is within 100 mile/160 kilometers radius from the point show.

It is really dire in the Western US. The whole West is on fire. Dire is a severe understatement. The death toll is probably going to be high once it is all over. Here is a Dense Smoke Advisory from NWS Reno.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
218 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-160000-
/O.NEW.KREV.SM.Y.0009.200914T2118Z-200916T0000Z/
Surprise Valley California-Lassen-Eastern Plumas-
Eastern Sierra Counties-Greater Lake Tahoe Area-Mono County-
Mineral and Southern Lyon Counties-Greater Reno-Carson City-
Minden Area-Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake-
Northern Washoe County-
Including the cities of Cedarville, Eagleville, Fort Bidwell,
Portola, Susanville, Westwood, Sierraville, Loyalton,
South Lake Tahoe, Tahoe City, Truckee, Markleeville, Bridgeport,
Coleville, Lee Vining, Mammoth Lakes, Hawthorne, Yerington,
Smith Valley, Mina, Schurz, Stateline, Glenbrook,
Incline Village, Sparks, Verdi, Gardnerville, Virginia City,
Fernley, Fallon, Lovelock, Silver Springs, Nixon, Imlay, Empire,
and Gerlach
218 PM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Light west-southwest winds will continue to push smoke
into the region from several wildfires burning across
California. The near-surface smoke concentration may improve
during the afternoon today and tomorrow but looks to degrade
during the evening and overnight hours through Tuesday.

* WHERE...Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake,
Mineral and Southern Lyon Counties, Mono County, Surprise
Valley California, Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra
Counties, Greater Lake Tahoe Area, Greater Reno-Carson City-
Minden Area and Northern Washoe County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM PDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Poor air quality and reduced visibility below one mile
in areas. Check airnow.gov for updated air quality information.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The areas which will see the highest risk
of dense smoke will be the Eastern Sierra, Carson Valley, Smith
Valley, Hawthorne, and northeastern California.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay indoors as much as possible when smoke is present. Avoid
strenuous activity, especially if you are sensitive to poor air
quality, such as the elderly, children and anyone with chronic
illness or respiratory problems. Consider postponing outdoor
activities. Check airnow.gov for the latest air quality
information.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/rev

People are advised to stay indoor. That is nearly impossible for people who have to evacuate in the fire zone. I do not know when the fires will end. The sooner the better. Anyways, let’s go to Hurricane Sally.

Hurricane Sally is a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. This as of 10:00 PM CDT from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It is close to the coast and moving slowly.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150311 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Corrected Storm Surge Hazards section

...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 87.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana,
has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 87.6 West. Sally is moving
toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is
likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to
northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near
the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make
landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast early Tuesday and Sally is
expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the
north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A buoy south of Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently
reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 69
mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake
Borgne...6-9 ft
Mobile Bay...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay
an Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew
Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-2 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi
through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is
likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread
minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track across
the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern
Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia, southeastern
Tennessee, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban
flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding
on some rivers.

Outer bands of Sally could produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3
inches across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This rainfall
may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and
ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through
early Tuesday in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama.
The threat for tornadoes should increase and slowly spread inland
during the day on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart

How strong will Sally get? Here is an intensity forecast. The data and intensity forecast are from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance.

Most forecast model keep Sally at Category 2. The exception is SHF5, which has it as a Category 3 hurricane. I think Sally will become a Category 3 hurricane and make landfall as one somewhere along the Central Gulf Coast. Many are wondering where Sally will go. Here is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is 0000Z. All GIS maps are created from QGIS.

Most models have Sally making landfall on Mississippi or Alabama on Tuesday night to early Wednesday morning. The slow motion of the hurricane increases chance of higher storm surge and heavier rain. Flooding would be a serious problem for areas affected by Sally. As I am typing, tropical storm force winds are affecting Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana. It should reach Mississippi later tonight.

Hurricane force winds extend up to 45 miles from the center with tropical storm force winds extending up to 125 miles. Sally is not a large hurricane. Smaller hurricanes produce lower storm surge. However, the slow movement is likely to produce higher storm surge. It is also the width and and slope of the ocean bottom that is a factor as well. The area where Sally is has produced monster storm surge from Camille and Katrina. I am not expecting storm surge comparable to Camille or Katrina at this time.

So much weather events going on in America on top of COVID-19 pandemic that is ravaging the world. Hopefully, anyone who needed to evacuate did evacuate.