Hurricane Ike 10 Years Later

Before Harvey flooded out Southeast Texas, there was Ike. It is hard to believe it has been 10 years since Hurricane Ike made landfall on Southeast Texas as a monsterous Category 2 hurricane in the early morning hours of September 13, 2008. Especially the fact this comes in light of Harvey. Ike pelted Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana with hurricane force winds and heavy rain. Ike was the last hurricane to hit Texas prior to Harvey. Almost a nine year gap of no hurricanes hitting Texas, let alone a major hurricane. The last major hurricane to hit Texas prior to Harvey was Bret in 1999, which is 18 years.

Thunderstorms over Sudan that later became Ike.

What is the origin of Hurricane Ike? Ike started as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that formed over Sudan on August 19th. Most tropical waves come from thunderstorms that form in the Northeast part of Africa. They are set off by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) or monsoon. The ITCZ is where there is thunderstorms from the clash of trade winds. These thunderstorms often provide beneficial rains in tropical and subtropical areas. The thunderstorms in ITCZ can break away and travel away. One of those thunderstorms from the ITCZ managed to do that. The MCS traveled over Africa and entered the Atlantic Ocean as a tropical wave on August 29th. The tropical wave traveled across with multiple vortices competing. One of them would win out as the thunderstorms in the tropical wave get better organized on September 1, 2008. It is upgraded to Tropical Depression #9. Later that day, it is named Ike as it travels over the open Atlantic. Tropical Storm Ike has to deal with wind shear in the upper level early in its life. The wind shear blows tops of thunderstorms, especially westerly wind shear. Since 2008 season is Neutral to La Nina, conditions are more favorable as there is less westerly wind shear. If 2008 was El Nino, there would be more westerly wind shear, which is why generally El Nino Atlantic Hurricane seasons see less storms. Wind shear generally kills tropical development. The higher the storm clouds are, the cooler it is. Higher storm clouds also mean they are more intense.

However, Ike gets a reprieve as the wind shear weakens and encounter warmer waters on September 3rd. This allows Ike to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane. By the next day, Ike becomes 2008’s strongest hurricane with 145 mph 126 knots 233 km/h winds and central pressure of 935 millibars. Ike’s strength did not last as it encountered wind shear on September 5th. The wind shear weaken Ike to Category 2 strength.

Hurricane Ike around its peak.

Ike is pushed southwards into more favorable areas due to upper level ridge to the north. Ike becomes a Category 4 hurricane as conditions are more favorable. As it goes westward, Ike made its first landfall on Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 4 hurricane on the early morning hours of September 7th. The Turks and Caicos Islands are the first to feel Ike’s violent wrath in the form of strong winds, heavy rain, storm surge, and high waves. The South Caicos and Grand Turk take the brunt of Ike. Despite Ike’s fury, there are no reports of fatalities.

Damage in Grand Turk.

While Ike is ravaging the Turks and Caicos Islands, the outer bands of Ike are dumping heavy rain on Haiti and Dominican Republic, which have been ravaged by Fay, Gustav, and Hanna. The flooding from Ike claims 74 lives in Haiti and 2 in Dominican Republic. Prior to Ike, Tropical Storm Hanna ravaged Haiti and Dominican Republic with heavy rain that led to massive flooding. The flooding claims 529 lives in Haiti, while just one dies in Dominican Republic. Why did Haiti see more fatalities than Dominican Republic? The lack of trees in Haiti makes it even more vulnerable to mudslides from the mountains. The heavy rain causes deadly mudslides that destroys houses and kill people.

Stranded Cubans following Ike.

Once Ike passes Turks and Caicos Island, Ike heads for Cuba. The hurricane makes landfall on Cabo Lucrecia, Holguín Province, Cuba. Cuba is in a very rough ride with Ike as it traverses over the entire island nation. Cuba is being pelted by heavy rain, strong wind, high waves, and storm surge. Briefly, Ike goes over the water only to make a second landfall on Punta La Capitana, Pinar del Río, Cuba on September 8th as a Category 1 hurricane. Ike claims 7 lives in Cuba.

Ike near its secondary peak in Gulf of Mexico.

Once Ike exits Cuba, it is a large Category 1 hurricane. Ike traveling over all of Cuba caused the storm to expand as energy is spread out from land interaction. It also disrupted Ike’s core. Ike enters large area of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and is getting close to the Loop Current, which is one of the warmest spot. Ike rapidly deepen from 963 to 944 millibars on the night of September 10th as it was over the Loop Current. However, the wind did not strengthen much, only from 80 to 100 mph 70 knots to 87 knots 128 km/h to 161 km/h. The reason is Ike is a very large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 125 miles 109 nautical miles 201 kilometers from the eye. The pressure gradient is not tight due to its large size. Normally, an Atlantic hurricane with central pressure of 944 millibars is a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.

On September 11th, as America remembers and reflects the seventh anniversary of the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks, Southeast Texas is sunny and dry. The west side of a hurricane in the Northern Hemisphere is usually the “clean” side. It blows in dry and sinking air from the north. The nice sunny day is very deceptive as Ike is ever inching closer. Meanwhile in the Gulf of Mexico, Ike is generating massive waves that are heading towards the Texas and Louisiana. Ike continues across the Gulf of Mexico as a large Category 2 hurricane. Waves are coming ahead of Ike in coastal Texas. People are evacuating from coastal areas including Galveston. Some choose to stay behind. The outer cloud banks of Ike are over Southeast Texas as winds start to pick up. By the afternoon of September 12th, some coastal areas are getting squally weather from the feeder bands entering Texas.

By the night of September 12th, conditions have gotten much worse. Meanwhile in Houston area, it is still windy with occasionally light rain. As the night progresses, Ike is getting closer to landfall. The hurricane force winds enter Texas around the late hours of September 12th. Ike is getting stronger and developing a more organized eyewall. Ike now has a central pressure of 951 millibars and 110 mph 96 knots 177 km/h winds. Ike is a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 125 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 260 miles 226 nautical miles 418 kilometers.

Ike at landfall on Southeast Texas.

Highest wind gust possible based on multiplying by factor of 1.5.

By the early morning hours of September 13th, Houston area is seeing stronger winds and heavier rain. Power starts to go out throughout Southeast Texas as power lines are being knocked by the strong wind. The coastal areas are seeing storm surge getting higher and higher. Anyone who stayed behind in Galveston or Bolivar Peninsula are doomed by the massive storm surge. Ike makes landfall on the eastern end of Galveston Island at 2:10 AM Central Time. People who are staying behind in the coastal areas are wishing they had evacuated as they are surrounded by rising storm surge. Ike travels to the northwest towards Houston. By 4:00 AM, Ike is over Baytown, which is flooded by storm surge. A large area of Southeast Texas is getting hurricane force winds including all of Houston.

Highest sustained winds during Hurricane Ike.

Bolivar Peninsula following Ike.

By the time the Sun rises, Ike is still ravaging Southeast Texas despite the fact it has weakened to Category 1 hurricane. Ike remains a monsterous and very dangerous hurricane. Many areas are still seeing heavy rain and strong winds. The wind blow down numerous trees and damage many buildings and houses. There is widespread flooding reported throughout Southeast Texas. Bayous and rivers are overflowing from widespread heavy rain. Coastal areas had storm surge as high as 25 feet/7.6 meters. It is one of the highest storm surge recorded in America and highest in Texas. It exceeds Camille, but below Katrina. Bolivar Peninsula saw the highest storm surge as the whole area looked like if a nuclear bomb had exploded. Once it is all over, many buildings and houses are damaged or destroyed, while many trees are uprooted. Coastal areas are utterly gutted from the massive storm surge. Millions of people are out of power for days. A large area saw 6 to 12 inches/15.2 to 30.5 centimeters of rain from Ike.

The damage is not just limited to Texas. Louisiana also felt the brunt of Ike, especially in Southwestern Louisiana. It is the same area that had been ravaged by Hurricane Rita in 2005. Many areas are flooded by Ike. There is even flooding in New Iberia, which is in Central Louisiana. It shows that Ike’s massive size had a huge impact over a large area from Texas to Louisiana. This is despite the fact that they only got tropical storm force winds. It shows that large, but not so strong hurricane is very dangerous as it produces massive storm surge and high waves.

Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front in the early morning hours of September 14, 2008.

The following night, a cold front passes, which allows thunderstorms to form from moisture left by Ike. The storms dumped 5 to 8 inches/12.7 to 20.3 centimeters of rain. The heavy rain causes more flooding on top of what Ike dumped in Southeast Texas. Once the rain ended, many areas saw a two day total ranging from 10 to 20 inches/25.4 to 50.8 centimeters of rain. Meanwhile, the remnants of Ike continue to wreak havoc in the Midwest. Ohio see hurricane force gusts, which causes more power outages. The remains of Ike continue into Canada and dump heavy rain in Ontario and Quebec. A total of 112 people lost their life with 34 unaccounted for in America. Most of the deaths are in Texas, where 84 people died.

Rainfall total from September 12, 2008 to September 15, 2008.

So, how was 2008 like prior to Ike. The winter of 2007-2008 is La Nina, so it is warmer and drier. Despite the La Nina, there are storms. Spring of 2008 is mostly dry. There were days of pleasant weather in Spring 2008. Summer of 2008 is average in terms of temperature and rainfall. Texas first brush with a hurricane is Dolly, which affected South Texas. The outer bands of Dolly dump heavy rain in the Houston area. Not too long after Dolly came, Tropical Storm Edouard pays a visit to Houston area. It is a rather unremarkable tropical storm that dumps up to 6 inches of rain. Edouard moves inland and gives beneficial rains to drought ridden Central Texas.

NHC Hurricane Ike Report
NHC Hurricane Ike Advisory Report
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)

Advertisements

Hurricane Ike 5 Years Later

hurricaneike2008texas

It is hard to believe it has been 5 years since Hurricane Ike made landfall on Southeast Texas as a monsterous Category 2 hurricane in the early morning hours of September 13, 2008. Ike pelted Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana with hurricane force winds and heavy rain.

Thunderstorms over Sudan that later became Ike.

Thunderstorms over Sudan that later became Ike.

What was the origin of Hurricane Ike? Ike started as a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that formed over Sudan on August 19th. Most tropical waves come from thunderstorms that form in the Northeast part of Africa. They are set off by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ITCZ is where there is thunderstorms from the clash of trade winds. These thunderstorms often provide beneficial rains in tropical and subtropical areas. The thunderstorms in ITCZ can break away and travel away. One of those thunderstorms from the ITCZ managed to do that. The MCS traveled over Africa and entered the Atlantic Ocean as a tropical wave on August 29th. The tropical wave traveled across with multiple vortices competing. One of them would win out as the thunderstorms in the tropical wave got better organized that on September 1, they were upgraded to Tropical Depression #9. Later that day, it was named Ike as it traveled over the open Atlantic. Tropical Storm Ike had to deal with wind shear in the upper level early in its life. The wind shear blows tops of thunderstorms, especially westerly wind shear. Since 2008 season was Neutral to La Nina, conditions were more favorable as there is less westerly wind shear. If 2008 was El Nino, there would be more westerly wind shear, which is why generally El Nino Atlantic Hurricane seasons see less storms. Wind shear generally kills tropical development. The higher the storm clouds are, the cooler it is. Higher storm clouds also mean they are more intense.

Hurricane Ike around its peak.

Hurricane Ike around its peak.

However, Ike gets a reprieve as the wind shear weakens and encounter warmer waters on September 3rd. This allowed Ike to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane. By the next day, Ike had become 2008’s strongest hurricane with 145 mph winds and central pressure of 935 millibars. Ike’s strength did not last as it encountered wind shear on September 5th. The wind shear weakened Ike to Category 2 strength. However, Ike was pushed southwards into more favorable areas due to upper level ridge to the north. Ike became a Category 4 hurricane as conditions were favorable. As it went westward, Ike made its first landfall on Turks and Caicos Islands as a Category 4 hurricane on the early morning hours of September 7th. The Turks and Caicos Islands were the first to feel Ike’s violent wrath in the form of strong winds, heavy rain, storm surge, and high waves. The South Caicos and Grand Turk took the brunt of Ike. Despite Ike’s fury, there were no reports of fatalities.

Damage in Grand Turk.

Damage in Grand Turk.

While Ike is ravaging the Turks and Caicos Islands, the outer bands of Ike were dumping heavy rain on Haiti and Dominican Republic, which had been ravaged by Fay, Gustav, and Hanna. The flooding from Ike claimed 74 lives in Haiti and 2 in Dominican Republic. Prior to Ike, Tropical Storm Hanna ravaged Haiti and Dominican Republic with heavy rain that led to massive flooding. The flooding claims 529 lives in Haiti, while just one died in Dominican Republic. Why did Haiti see more fatalities than Dominican Republic? The lack of trees in Haiti makes it even more vulnerable to mudslides from the mountains. The heavy rain causes deadly mudslides that destroys houses and killed people.

Stranded Cubans following Ike.

Stranded Cubans following Ike.

Once Ike passed Turks and Caicos Island, Ike headed for Cuba. The hurricane made landfall on Cabo Lucrecia, Holguín Province, Cuba. Cuba has in a very rough ride with Ike as traversed over the entire island nation. Cuba was being pelted by heavy rain, strong wind, high waves, and storm surge. Briefly, Ike went over the water only to make a second landfall on Punta La Capitana, Pinar del Río, Cuba on September 8th as a Category 1 hurricane. Ike claimed 7 lives in Cuba.

Ike near its secondary peak in Gulf of Mexico.

Ike near its secondary peak in Gulf of Mexico.

Once Ike exited Cuba, it was a large Category 1 hurricane. Ike traveling over all of Cuba caused the storm to expand as energy is spread out from land interaction. Ike had large area of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and was getting close to the Loop Current, which is one of the warmest spot. Ike rapidly deepen from 963 to 944 millibars on the night of September 10th as it was over the Loop Current. However, the wind did not strengthen much, only from 80 to 100 mph. The reason was Ike was a very large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 125 miles from the eye. The pressure gradient was not tight due to its large size. Normally, an Atlantic hurricane with central pressure of 944 millibars is a Category 3 or 4 hurricane.

On September 11th, Southeast Texas is sunny and dry because on the west side of a hurricane in Northern Hemisphere, the west side is usually the clean side. It blows in dry and sinking air from the north. The nice sunny day is very deceptive as Ike is ever inching closer. Meanwhile in the Gulf of Mexico, Ike is generating massive waves that are heading towards the Texas and Louisiana. Ike continued across the Gulf of Mexico as a large Category 2 hurricane. Waves are coming ahead of Ike in coastal Texas. People are evacuating from coastal areas including Galveston. Some choose to stay behind. The outer cloud banks of Ike are over Southeast Texas as winds start to pick up. By the afternoon of September 12th, some coastal areas are getting squally weather from the feeder bands entering Texas.

By the night of September 12th, conditions have gotten much worse. Winds and rain is picking up more in Cuba. Meanwhile in Houston area, it is still windy with occasionally light rain. As the night progress, Ike is getting closer to landfall. The hurricane force winds enter Texas around the late hours of September 12th. Ike is getting stronger and developing a more organized eyewall. Ike now has a central pressure of 951 millibars and 110 mph winds. Ike still remains a large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 125 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 260 miles.

Ike at landfall on Southeast Texas.

Ike at landfall on Southeast Texas.

By the early morning hours of September 13th, Houston area is seeing stronger winds and heavier rain. Power starts to go out throughout Southeast Texas as power lines are being knocked by the strong wind. The coastal areas are seeing storm surge getting higher and higher. Anyone who stayed behind in Galveston or Bolivar Peninsula are doomed by the massive storm surge. Ike makes landfall on the eastern end of Galveston Island at 2:10 AM Central Time. People who are staying behind in the coastal areas are wishing they had evacuated as they are surrounded by rising storm surge. Ike travel to the northwest towards Houston. By 4:00 AM, Ike went over Baytown, which is flooded by storm surge. A large area of Southeast Texas is getting hurricane force winds including all of Houston.

Bolivar Peninsula following Ike.

Bolivar Peninsula following Ike.

Bolivar Peninsula following Ike.[/caption]By the time the Sun rises, Ike is still ravaging Southeast Texas despite the fact it has weakened to Category 1 hurricane. Ike remained a monsterous and very dangerous hurricane. Many areas are still seeing heavy rain and strong winds. The wind blew down numerous trees and damage many buildings and houses. There is widespread flooding reported throughout Southeast Texas. Bayous and rivers are overflowing from widespread heavy rain. Coastal areas had storm surge as high as 25 feet. Bolivar Peninsula saw the higher storm surge as the whole area looked like if a nuclear bomb had exploded. Once it was all over, many buildings and houses were damaged or destroyed while many trees were uprooted. Coastal areas were gutted from the massive storm surge. Millions of people were out of power for days. A large area saw 6 to 12 inches of rain from Ike.

The damage was not just limited to Texas. Louisiana also felt the brunt of Ike, especially in Southwestern Louisiana. It is the same area that had been ravaged by Hurricane Rita in 2005. Many areas were flooded by Ike. There was even flooding in New Iberia, which is in Central Louisiana. It shows that Ike’s massive size had a huge impact over a large area from Texas to Louisiana. This is despite the fact that they only got tropical storm force winds. It shows that large, but not so strong hurricane is very dangerous as it produces massive storm surge and high waves.

Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front in the early morning hours of September 14, 2008.

Thunderstorms ahead of a cold front in the early morning hours of September 14, 2008.

The following night, a cold front came, which allowed thunderstorms to form from moisture left by Ike. The storms dumped 5 to 8 inches of rain. The heavy rain causes more flooding on top of what Ike dumped in Southeast Texas. Once the rain ended, many areas saw a two day total ranging from 10 to 20 inches of rain. Meanwhile, the remnants of Ike continued to wreak havoc in the Midwest. Ohio saw hurricane force gusts, which caused more power outages. The remains of Ike continued into Canada and dumped heavy rain in Ontario and Quebec. A total of 112 people lost their life with 34 unaccounted for in America. Most of the deaths were in Texas, where 84 people died.

So, how was 2008 like prior to Ike. The winter of 2007-2008 was La Nina, so it was warmer and drier. Despite the La Nina, there were storms. Spring of 2008 was mostly dry. There were days of pleasant weather in spring 2008. Summer of 2008 was average in terms of temperature and rainfall. Texas first brush with a hurricane was Dolly, which affected South Texas. The outer bands of Dolly dumped heavy rain in the Houston area. Not too long after Dolly came, Tropical Storm Edouard paid a visit to Houston area. It was a rather unremarkable tropical storm that dumped up to 6 inches of rain. Edouard moved inland and gave beneficial rains to drought ridden Central Texas.

More photos of Ike.

Haiti following Ike.

Haiti following Ike.

Galveson flooded following Ike.

Galveson flooded following Ike.

New Iberia flooded following Ike.

New Iberia flooded following Ike.

Hurricane Ike rainfall total for America.

Hurricane Ike rainfall total for America.

NHC Hurricane Ike Report
NHC Hurricane Ike Advisory Report
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)

Hurricane Sandy

The East Coast is cleaning up from Hurricane Sandy, which has so far have so far claimed 160 lives in America and Caribbean. I expect the death toll to rise, especially in the Northeast. Why was Hurricane Sandy so bad despite only being a Category 1 storm? I will look at Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane Sandy formed from a tropical wave that moved out of Africa in early October. It entered the Caribbean on October 19 and was tagged as Invest 99L. The Caribbean for the 2012 season is largely not favorable due to wind shear from a weak El Nino that died (indications are that El Nino is returning). The lack of wind shear in the Caribbean and warm water made it favorable for development. The disturbance becomes Tropical Depression 18 and than Tropical Storm Sandy on October 22. Two days later, Sandy becomes a hurricane and heads north towards Jamaica. Sandy makes a direct landfall on Jamaica, near Kingston. Jamaica has not had a landfall since 1988 with Hurricane Gilbert. Than Sandy passes Jamaica and undergoes rapid intensification to 110 mph and makes landfall west of Santiago de Cuba. Satellite presentation suggests that Sandy was most likely a major hurricane and likely will be upgraded.

NAO during Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy heads towards the Bahamas and starts to “weaken”. Actually, Sandy is becoming more extratropical and getting larger. The wind shear has little effect on Sandy as it becomes larger and more intense as the pressure drops. The reason for this is that Sandy is influenced by a trough to the west and maintaining a warm core. Sandy also had the Gulf Stream, which allowed it to intensify further. One would think that Sandy would keep going to the northeast as most storms typically do especially in October due to jet stream. There was a strong high pressure around Greenland and the jet stream around it steered Sandy to the west towards the East Coast. A strong high pressure over Greenland is a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since that high pressure over Greenland blocked Sandy from going northeast and had no choice but to go westward. A negative NAO also generally means cooler and stormier winters as cold air from the north is pushed southwards.

Infrared image of Hurricane Sandy.

Sandy makes landfall 5 miles southwest of Atlantic City on the afternoon of October 30. By than Sandy is the largest hurricane on record for the Atlantic. It would be like if Super Typhoon Tip hit the East Coast, but not as intense. Most of the heavy rain was near the center, while the strongest winds and storm surge were to the northeast, which puts it over the New York City area. New York area did not get most of the rain from Sandy despite being on the “dirty” side of the storm. Instead they got the highest storm surge of nearly 14 feet at The Battery in Manhattan. The storm surge ravaged New York, Long Island, New Jersey, and Connecticut. It even ravaged areas north of New York along the Hudson River. Flooding was extensive in Lower Manhattan and Northern New Jersey. By the time Sandy passed, about 8 million people lost power, the second most after the 1993 Super Storm.

Let’s look at how Sandy stacks up.

Central Pressure: 945.5 Millibars
Sustained Winds At Landfall: 90 mph
Highest Rainfall: 12.55″ Easton, Maryland
Highest Snowfall: 36″ Richwood, West Virginia

Sandy is the most intense hurricane to hit north of Cape Hatteras. It beats the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane, which ravaged the East Coast and claimed 600 lives. Sandy was a large rainmaker for areas east of Washington, DC. Not only Sandy dumped heavy rain, it dumped heavy snow in Appalachian Mountains. West Virginia got their first snow of the season in the form of a blizzard. Another interesting thing about Sandy is, it is one of the few hurricanes to make landfall on New Jersey from a westerly direction. Most storms that hit New Jersey are coming from the south, like Hurricane Irene did in 2011. The last storm to hit New Jersey like Sandy did was in 1903 and dubbed Vagabond Hurricane. The Vagabond Hurricane hit in September as a Category 1 hurricane and made landfall near Atlantic City.