Hurricane Ian, A Sense Of Deja Vu

Hurricane Ian just made landfall on Florida on September 28, 2022.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL092022/Sandwich/

Hurricane Ian made landfall at 3:05 PM EDT on Cayo Costa and near Pirate Harbor at around at 4:35 PM EDT. Hurricane Ian made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds at Cayo Costa. Ian peaked at 155 mph winds and central pressure of 936 millibars. I would not be surprised if Ian gets upgraded to Category 5. Hurricane Ian gives a sense of deja vu with Hurricane Charley. Hurricane Charley made landfall on August 13, 2004.

Hurricane Charley from NOAA.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satmet.2012-Feb-14/modules/wild_weather/charley/charley.html

Hurricane Charley made landfall at the almost same location where Hurricane Ian did. Even the landfall times are almost the same at 3:45 PM and 4:45 PM. Both had frontal boundary that impacted steering motion for them. Talk about eerily similar. However, there are differences between Charley and Ian.

Hurricane Ian is stronger with 155 mph winds and central pressure of 936 millibars at peak. Hurricane Charley peaked at 150 mph and 941 millibars. Charley is much smaller with hurricane force winds extending up to 25 miles from the eye. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles for Charley. Ian has hurricane force winds extending up to 45 miles from the eye. Ian has large tropical storm force winds extending up to 175 miles. Charley moved faster compared to Ian. The storm surge is much higher in Ian than in Charley. In terms of rain amount, Charley dumped 4 to 8 inches of rain. Ian has dumped over 12 inches of rain and still falling as of tonight (September 28, 2022). Charley is not a flood event, while Ian is looking to be a flood event.

Here are rainfall forecast totals between September 28, 2022 to October 6, 2022. They are from Weather.US. The forecast models are:
GFS (American)
EURO (European)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)
GEM (Canadian)
CMA (China)

GFS (American)

EURO (European)

GDAPS/UM (South Korean)

GEM (Canadian)

CMA (Chinese)

The Canadian has the lowest amount of 16.80 inches of rain. The Korean has the highest at 42.20 inches of rain. I ran a statistical analysis using PSPP. I look at rainfall total forecast.

Mean	24.92
Median	20.4
Standard Deviation	10.51
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound	11.87
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound	37.97

The mean rainfall total is 24.92 inches with median of 20.40 inches. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 11.87 inches to 37.97 inches. It is probable the rainfall total will be somewhere between 12 to 38 inches of rain. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be below 12 inches or over 50 inches. I can say with 95% confidence that the rainfall total is probably going to be somewhere between 12 to 38 inches of rain. More than likely, it is now over 12 inches of rain.

I would not be surprised if some areas in Florida see over 40 inches of rain from Hurricane Ian. If Hurricane Ian was to dump 40 inches or greater, that would be a record for Florida. The highest known 24 hour rainfall total for Florida is 38.70 inches in Yankeetown! The total rainfall from Easy is 45.20 inches, making it Florida’s wettest tropical system. It is probable some areas could of had higher rainfall totals from Easy. Ian could challenge Easy in terms of rainfall.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Ian is likely to weaken overnight.
-Ian is likely to be more of a heavy rain even for inland and East Coast of Florda.
-Storm surge will remain a problem for Florida.

Monsterous Michael Makes Landfall

History was made earlier today. Hurricane Michael made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph 135 knots 249 km/h. The highest wind on land is around 132 mph 115 knots 212 km/h with gusts as high as 198 mph 172 knots 319 km/h! It has a central pressure of 919 millibars and still intensifying! If it had been over water longer, it probably would of been a Category 5 hurricane. No doubt that Michael made history. Here is how Michael compares to past hurricanes.

Michael is the most intense Gulf Of Mexico hurricane since Rita (2005). Rita had a central pressure of 895 millibars with 180 mph 156 knots 290 km/h. Rita is the most intense Gulf Of Mexico hurricane recorded. There is no doubt there are stronger Gulf Of Mexico hurricanes that go unrecorded prior to the 19th century. Rita made landfall on the Texas and Louisiana border not before triggering a massive evacuation due to Katrina ravaging the Gulf Coast a month earlier. Michael is the most intense October Gulf Of Mexico hurricane since Opal (1995). Opal had a central pressure of 916 millibars and 150 mph 130 knots 241 km/h winds. Opal made landfall on Pensacola.

How does Michael stack up in terms of central pressure landfall for America and Atlantic Basin? Michael is the third most intense landfalling hurricane on America. Only the 1935 Labor Day and Camille have lower central pressures.

Rank	Storm	Landfall Pressure
1	Labor Day (1935)	892 mb
2	Camille (1969)	900 mb
3	Michael (2018)	919 mb
4	Katrina (2005)/Maria (2017)	920 mb
5	Andrew (1992)	922 mb
6	Indianola (1886)	925 mb
7	Guam (1900)	926 mb
8	Florida Keys (1919)	927 mb
9	Okeechobee (1928)	929 mb
10	Great Miami (1926)/Donna (1960)	930 mb

Michael has lower pressure than Katrina, Maria, and Andrew. Michael is the most intense Category 4 hurricane to make landfall on America. Katrina is the most intense Category 3 hurricane to make landfall on America. Katrina is much larger than Camille, Andrew, or Michael, which explains the low pressure and Category 3 winds. Texas’s most intense hurricane recorded is the 1886 Indianola Hurricane, which had a central pressure of 925 millibars. It is likely it had lower pressure. The 1900 Guam typhoon is the most intense typhoon recorded to hit Guam. It is very likely there have been more intense typhoons that hit Guam. Typhoons are often intense and often have lower pressure than the Atlantic. Category 5 typhoons happen every year. Let’s look at how Michael compares Atlantic Basin.

Rank	Storm	Landfall pressure
1	Labor Day (1935)	892 mb
2	Camille (1969)/Gilbert (1988)	900 mb
3	Dean (2007)	905 mb
4	Cuba (1924)	910 mb
5	Janet (1955)/Irma (2017)	914 mb
6	Cuba (1932)	918 mb
7	Michael (2018)	919 mb
8	Katrina 2005/Maria (2017)	920 mb
9	Bahamas (1932)	921 mb
10	Andrew (1992)	922 mb

Michael ranks seventh most intense basinwide hurricane landfall! The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane is still the most intense basinwide landfall. Camille (1969) and Gilbert (1988) tie as second most intense landfall basinwide. There is a unconfirmed report that the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane had pressure as low as 880 millibars! If that was true, it would be the most intense Atlantic hurricane, even surpassing Wilma!

Michael is one of the few Category 4 hurricanes to make landfall in October. Here is a list of hurricanes that made landfall on America in October.

1893 “Chenier Caminanda”
1898 Georgia Hurricane
1950 King
1954 Hazel

The last hurricane to make landfall on America as a Category 4 is Hazel in 1954. On top of it, Michael is a major hurricane over Georgia. The last time Georgia saw a major hurricane was in 1898! It is from the Georgia Hurricane.

History and statistics aside, we are going to be hearing and seeing a lot of destruction and likely more deaths from Michael. It could be a very costly hurricane for sure.

Tropical Storm Franklin For 8/9/2017 1900 CDT

The first hurricane of the season, Franklin, is getting ever closer to Mexico. It looks to be that way.

Franklin is a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph 120 km/h 65 knots wind. It has gusts of 94 mph 150.4 km/h 82 knots. Further intensification is possible as shown in the forecast model. Two models keep Franklin as a hurricane despite being over the mountains of Mexico. I am not convinced that will happen as the mountains tend to weaken hurricanes.

I would not be surprised if Franklin becomes a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph 168 km/h 90 knots wind right before landfall as looks to be intensifying further. Franklin is an average sized hurricane. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 140 miles 224 km/h 122 nautical miles. Hurricane force winds extend up to 35 miles 56 km/h 30 nautical miles. from the eye.

Most areas in Mexico will see at most tropical storm force winds with hurricane force winds. Hurricane force winds should be most likely confined to the coast. Here is a probability map of hurricane force winds.

If Franklin makes landfall as a 85 mph 136 km/h 74 knots hurricane, the strongest wind possible is 72 mph 115 km/h 63 knots with gusts as high as 108 mph 173 km/h 94 knots. I determine this by multiplying the strongest winds by 0.85. Land reduces wind by 15 percent. However, due to friction, gusts are higher as I multiply sustained winds by 1.5.

My main concern is heavy rain from Franklin. Franklin is moving as 12 mph, which means it can dump about 8 inches (20.32 centimeters) of rain. Many areas are likely to see 4 to 10 inches (10.16 to 25.4 centimeters) of rain. Mountains areas could see as much as 20 inches (50.8 centimeters) of rain. This amount is certainly going to lead to flooding that can be deadly.

Tropical Storm Franklin For 8/8/2017 2200 CDT

Tropical Storm Franklin has exited the Yucatan Peninsula as a tropical storm. It is over the Gulf of Mexico as I type. It looks to be intensifying. The intensity and where it goes forecast models are always interesting and challenging. There are different outputs from different forecast models.

Most keep Franklin as a tropical storm. Three of them have Franklin becoming a Category 1 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center has Franklin as a hurricane in 24 hours. It would be the first hurricane of the season. I think Franklin will be a hurricane as it is over the Gulf of Mexico. I do not think Franklin will be a major hurricane. At most a strong Category 1 hurricane. The next question is where Franklin will make its next landfall.

Most of the forecast models have Franklin going into Mexico by tomorrow afternoon. One model has it going northwest towards Texas. That looks very unlikely at this point. The general consensus is Franklin is going to make landfall somewhere on Mexico’s Gulf Coast. Franklin is likely to make landfall somewhere on Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane. By tomorrow night, Franklin will be over the mountains of Mexico. Heavy rain will be the main problem as mountainous areas tend to draw more moisture from clouds.

Many areas could see 4 to 8 inches (10.16 to 20.32 centimeters) of rain. Some areas could see as much as 20 inches (50.8 centimeters) of rain, especially in mountainous areas. Looking at Franklin, I think it will be more of a rain and flood event.

Tropical Storm Franklin For 8/7/2017 2200 CDT

Tropical Storm Franklin is about to make landfall on Yucatan Peninsula as I type. Franklin has 60 mph 96 km/h 52 knot winds. Gusts are high as 75 mph 120 km/h 64 knots. The highest wind at landfall should be 51 mph 81.6 km/h 44 knots with gusts as high as 77 mph 123 km/h 67 knots. Many areas will likely see tropical storm force winds and heavy rain. Many areas will see 4 to 7 inches (10.16 to 17.78 centimeters) of rain with isolated totals of 12 inches (30.48 centimeters). Tropical storm force winds extend up to 140 miles 224 km 122 nautical miles.

Where doe Franklin go after it passes Yucatan Peninsula and how strong will it be? Most of the forecast model has Franklin going over Bay of Campeche and into Mexico again. One forecast model has it heading towards the Central Texas Coast. However, I do not think Franklin will have much of an impact on Texas as it is likely to move westward. The heat map is generated from ATCF data file. The cone is from National Hurricane Center.

Looking at the heat map, there is a general consensus that Franklin is likely going to make landfall on Mexico again. Intensity is of most concern. Here is an intensity forecast from National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Most forecast models have Franklin as a tropical storm as it goes over Yucatan Peninsula. Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, some forecast models have Franklin becoming our first hurricane of the season with 75 mph 120 km/h 65 knots winds. I think Franklin will be our first hurricane of the season. I would not be surprised if Franklin intensified into a Category 2 hurricane.

Tropical Storm Cindy For 6/21/2017 2200 CDT

Tropical Storm Cindy is getting closer to land. The latest position from National Hurricane Center is 95 miles or 153 kilometers from Port Arthur, Texas as of 10:00 PM or 2200 CDT. Here is the latest Doppler radar image out of NWS Lake Charles.

It is moving 7 mph or 11 kilometers north-northwest. Cindy could make landfall between 3:00 AM to 5:00 AM or 0300 to 0500 CDT at this rate. The question is where Cindy will make landfall.

The data is from UCAR, to be more specific from ATCF data file. I also included the 5 day cone from National Hurricane Center.Looks to make landfall in East Texas our Southwest Louisiana. Still cannot rule a landfall closer to Houston at this time as tropical cyclones tend to wobble. The area around the center of Cindy has produced heavy rain.

Many areas have seen 1 to 2 inches or 2.54 to 5.08 centimeters of rain per hour. Doppler radar estimates the heaviest rainfall rate is 4 inches or 10.16 centimeters per hour! Some areas could see as much as 5 inch or 12.7 centimeters per hour!

Many areas have seen 3 to 6 inches or 7.62 to 15.24 centimeters of rain based on Doppler radar estimates. The highest is 11 inches or 27.94 centimeters of rain. Again, Doppler radar tends to underestimate rainfall totals. I suspect the highest rainfall total is around 12 to 14 inches or 30.48 to 35.56 centimeters of of rain. I think Houston area could see rain from Cindy, especially later tonight. Rainfall total should be about 1 to 3 inches or 2.54 to 7.62 centimeters with amount as high as 5 inches or 12.7 centimeters of rain. I would not be surprised if thunderstorms form on the west side of Cindy and dumps heavy rain over the Houston area while you sleep.

Once Cindy makes landfall, where does it go? Could it stall out over Texas and dump more heavy rain like Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 did? Or could it just move away from Texas? Here is the next 5 day forecast model.

The cone and heat map has Cindy moving towards Arkansas. No forecast model has Cindy stalling over Texas. It can be possible that Cindy will stall over Texas, but that is unlikely at this point. The forecast models are divided where Cindy will go once inland. It can go to the Midwest and Canada or go all the way to the East Coast. Right now, we should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cindy as it is getting closer to land.