Tropical Storm Cindy For 6/21/2017 2200 CDT

Tropical Storm Cindy is getting closer to land. The latest position from National Hurricane Center is 95 miles or 153 kilometers from Port Arthur, Texas as of 10:00 PM or 2200 CDT. Here is the latest Doppler radar image out of NWS Lake Charles.

It is moving 7 mph or 11 kilometers north-northwest. Cindy could make landfall between 3:00 AM to 5:00 AM or 0300 to 0500 CDT at this rate. The question is where Cindy will make landfall.

The data is from UCAR, to be more specific from ATCF data file. I also included the 5 day cone from National Hurricane Center.Looks to make landfall in East Texas our Southwest Louisiana. Still cannot rule a landfall closer to Houston at this time as tropical cyclones tend to wobble. The area around the center of Cindy has produced heavy rain.

Many areas have seen 1 to 2 inches or 2.54 to 5.08 centimeters of rain per hour. Doppler radar estimates the heaviest rainfall rate is 4 inches or 10.16 centimeters per hour! Some areas could see as much as 5 inch or 12.7 centimeters per hour!

Many areas have seen 3 to 6 inches or 7.62 to 15.24 centimeters of rain based on Doppler radar estimates. The highest is 11 inches or 27.94 centimeters of rain. Again, Doppler radar tends to underestimate rainfall totals. I suspect the highest rainfall total is around 12 to 14 inches or 30.48 to 35.56 centimeters of of rain. I think Houston area could see rain from Cindy, especially later tonight. Rainfall total should be about 1 to 3 inches or 2.54 to 7.62 centimeters with amount as high as 5 inches or 12.7 centimeters of rain. I would not be surprised if thunderstorms form on the west side of Cindy and dumps heavy rain over the Houston area while you sleep.

Once Cindy makes landfall, where does it go? Could it stall out over Texas and dump more heavy rain like Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 did? Or could it just move away from Texas? Here is the next 5 day forecast model.

The cone and heat map has Cindy moving towards Arkansas. No forecast model has Cindy stalling over Texas. It can be possible that Cindy will stall over Texas, but that is unlikely at this point. The forecast models are divided where Cindy will go once inland. It can go to the Midwest and Canada or go all the way to the East Coast. Right now, we should keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cindy as it is getting closer to land.

Latest On Hurricane Matthew As Of 11:00 AM EDT October 8, 2016

Hurricane Matthew made landfall on McClellanville, South Carolina with 75 mph winds and central pressure of 967 millibars. The highest wind on land is 64 mph with gusts of 96 mph. Many areas are seeing 40 to 60 mph winds with gusts of 70 to 90 mph.

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Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles, while tropical storm force extend up to 185 miles. Matthew is weakening and could be a tropical storm later today. Intensity forecast have Matthew weakening in the next few days.

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Doppler radar out of Wilmington, shows that Matthew is inland. Being close to land has weakened Matthew from a major hurricane.

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Despite it weakening, Matthew is dumping flooding rain. Flooding will be the major problem for the Southeast, especially for South Carolina and North Carolina. Doppler radar estimate has much as 15 inches of rain near the South Carolina and Georgia border. Areas where South Carolina and North Carolina meet, 6 to 8 inches of rain has fallen so far. More rain is expected to fall in South Carolina and North Carolina.

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South Carolina could see an additional 4 to 6 inches of rain, which means the total could be 10 to 15 inches of rain. North Carolina could see ab additional 10 inches of rain. North Carolina could see as much as 10 to 15 inches of rain. Some areas could see as much 20 inches of rain.

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On top of the heavy rain, there is dangerous storm surge. Many areas could see 5 to 7 feet storm surge with isolated areas seeing 10 feet storm surge. Storm surge is more related to size of storm, shallowness of water, and geography. A large Category 1 or 2 hurricane over large area of shallow water with funnel shape area will produce higher storm surge than a small Category 4 or 5 hurricane with deeper waters off the coast. Ike and Sandy produced high storm surge despite being under Category 3 because of their large size and geography of affected areas. Storm surge is the biggest killer in hurricanes. The storm surge will make flooding worse as flood waters cannot drain quickly enough.

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Forecast models are all over where Matthew goes. Most have it going eastwards into the Atlantic. Where it goes becomes more complicated. Some have Matthew looping southward towards the Bahamas and even entering the Gulf of Mexico. Some models have it going near Canada. Another fly in the ointment is Tropical Storm Nicole. I do not think it will have much influences due to the small size of the storm.

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Hurricane Matthew is going to be a huge problem for South Carolina and North Carolina. The southern part of Haiti is largely flattened by Matthew. 90 percent of some areas are leveled. The death toll is certainly going to rise. One district, Grand-Anse, at least 470 people have died. I suspect the death toll will be in the thousands. This could be Haiti’s worst hurricane since Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. Jeanne claimed 3,006 people in Haiti. Most of the death was from deadly flooding from heavy rain in the amount of 12 to 15 inches. Most of the death occurred in Gonaïves. Gonaïves had 2,826 of its residence die. Jeanne did not even make landfall as it was a tropical storm.

Hurricane Glasscock (Updated)

It has come to my attention from Sandy Delgado’s thesis that Hurricane Glasscock is not a hurricane at all. It was listed a suspected storm. Glasscock is a product of two troughs that circled around Hurricane Gladys and merged together. It resulted in severe weather of heavy rain and strong winds over Texas. Even two reconnaissance missions did not find a tropical storm, which would have a low pressure at the surface. Glasscock is more of a trough than a circular storm.

As Hurricane Gladys made landfall in Mexico, on September 5, 1955, another circular storm made landfall south of Baffin Bay on September 7, 1955. The storm was dubbed by residence as “Hurricane Glasscock”. Glasscock was named after the nearest oil platform from shore, which was 15 miles east of Port Aransas. The storm dumped heavy rain, up to 17.02 inches fell in 24 hours in Flour Bluff. Nearby Corpus Christi got over 7 inches of rain. The storm produced 60 mph winds with gusts as high as 83 mph were recorded. Storm surge was recorded as high as 4.5 feet. Thankfully damage was confined to the coastal areas. Was Hurricane Glasscock part of another circulation of Gladys or a separate tropical system? The storm was seen on radar as cyclonic in nature with a low pressure system, which could support a separate storm. The National Weather Service does not recognize Hurricane Glasscock to this day. I am going to show that Glasscock was indeed a separate storm from Gladys.

Let’s look at this map generated by NOAA’s Daily Mean Composites.

Sea Level Pressure 1000 mb Level

Sea Level Pressure 850 mb Level

It shows nothing.

Now, let’s look at the pressure map. They are from NOAA Daily Mean Composites.

Pressure 1000 mb Level

Pressure 850 mb Level

Again, it shows nothing. There is a disclaimer that the NOAA’s Daily Mean Composites is beta and henceforth the maps shown are still in development. So, we should look at a weather map from the past.

Here is a pressure map from the September 8, 1955 edition of US Weather Bureau map. They are from NOAA Central Library U.S. Daily Weather Maps Project.

It shows a low pressure system around Baffin Bay, Texas. It is moving to the north-northwest towards Texas. Could this storm be a separate tropical cyclone from Hurricane Gladys or just an area of squall from Gladys? Hurricane Gladys made landfall two days before Glasscock, it is very likely that Glasscock was a separate storm from Gladys. Gladys made landfall 245 miles south of Brownsville or about 385 south of Baffin Bay.

Now, when I look at the September 5, 1955 edition of US Weather Bureau map.

It depicts Gladys as a rather large hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. It could be possible that there was an area of thunderstorms within the out edges of Gladys and somehow it spun up into a small tropical system, which the US Weather Bureau map depicts. That area of thunderstorm was either there before Gladys or formed when Gladys made landfall. The September 8, 1955 edition depicts the low pressure around Baffin Bay as a small area of low pressure. This would indicate that it was a separate storm from Gladys. It could be very likely that Glasscock was indeed a separate storm from Gladys.

Here is a 500 mb level pressure map. One from US Weather Bureau and Daily Mean Composites.

September 5, 1955
Daily Mean Composites

US Weather Bureau

The Daily Mean Composites shows an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. The US Weather Bureau maps shows an actual low pressure system, which is Gladys.

September 7, 1955
Daily Mean Composites

US Weather Bureau

The Daily Mean Composites shows nothing in the Gulf of Mexico and Baffin Bay. The US Weather Bureau maps shows an actual low pressure system, which is Glasscock in the Baffin Bay. Why the discrepancies between the two? I do not know. As mentioned, the Daily Mean Composites is still beta and likely once it is fully developed, it should show less to almost no discrepancies.

I looked at September 1955 weather records for Corpus Christi, which is closest to Baffin Bay available. Here are the records from September 4-9, 1955. They are from IPS-COOP Select State.
9/4/1955 88/79 0.85
9/5/1955 83/76 0.36
9/6/1955 74/70 1.00
9/7/1955 78/73 7.73
9/8/1955 84/74 0.51
9/9/1955 88/77 0

During the period of September 4-9, 1955, 10.45 inches of rain fell in Corpus Christi. Rain was measured before Gladys made landfall in Mexico, likely from the outer bands of the hurricane. That would show that Gladys was a large hurricane. However, the rain amount from the outer bands of Gladys was 2.21 inches, while the total from Glassock was 8.24 inches of rain. Fluor Bluff got 17.02 inches of rain from Glasscock. In addition, there is no report of storm surge in Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi from Gladys. There was report of storm surge from Hurricane Glassock.

There are no satellite images and pressure reports from 1955, so we may never know if Hurricane Glasscock was part of Gladys or a separate system. I cannot find the actual pressure report for Hurricane Glasscock. Now, if I did, I would certainly update that. I personally think that Hurricane Glasscock was a completely separate tropical cyclone, a small one.

More Reading on Hurricane Glasscock.
Hydrological Prediction Center-Hurricane Gladys/Hurricane Glasscock
Hydrological Prediction Center-Texas Hurricane History-Must Read!
Monthly Weather Review-Hurricanes of 1955-See page 320 or page 6 of article.