Hurricane Alicia, 40 Years Later

Posted on August 18, 2023 by texashurricane

An original post from 2013 that is reposted and changed.

It has been 40 years ago at this very moment that Hurricane Alicia ravaged Southeast Texas, centered in the Houston metropolitan area. Hurricane Alicia came during the Cold War between America and Soviet Union. The Cold War ended in 1991 and underwent change. The world changed with 9/11 and COVID Pandemic.

The winter of 1982-1983 was an extremely strong El Nino. It was the strongest prior to winter of 1997-1998. It is one reason why 1983 Hurricane Season was inactive because the Pacific was coming off of a strong El Nino. There was a tornado outbreak in the early morning hours of May 20, 1983. It would be the last major tornado outbreak in the Houston area until November 21, 1992. Summer of 1983 was a wet one. In early August, an unusual cold front passes Southeast Texas, setting off thunderstorms as warm and moist air clashes with cool and drier air. Once the cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) forms near the coast of Alabama and Mississippi on August 14th. A MCS is a large area of thunderstorms with a center of low pressure.

The area of thunderstorms continues to persist that a low pressure system forms on August 15th. By 7:00 AM CST, the area of thunderstorms became Tropical Depression 3. It is unusual to see a tropical cyclone development from a frontal boundary in August. It is more likely to do so early or late in the season because cold fronts usually do not go into the Gulf of Mexico. Later that day, Tropical Depression 3 became Tropical Storm Alicia with 50 mph winds. It was strengthening due to favorable conditions. Also, Alicia was a relatively small storm and was in an area of higher ambient pressure. Alicia was moving slowly to the west-northwest towards Texas.

On August 17th, Alicia becomes the first hurricane of the 1983 season. It is slowly moving south-southwest of Galveston. Galveston has been hit by hurricanes in the past. It is also where the deadliest hurricane and natural disaster in American history, the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. It made landfall southwest of Galveston on September 8, 1900. It claimed 12,000 lives, which is more lives lost than the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake (6,000), September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks (3,000), and Hurricane Katrina (1,836) combined.

What is Galveston doing to prepare for the onslaught of Alicia? They are ordering people to evacuate and take cover on high ground. They evacuate to avoid storm surge produced by the hurricane. Before hand, when the National Hurricane Center (NHC) were issuing gale warnings and they were not taken seriously. Galveston Mayor E. Gus Manuel ordered an evacuation on storm surge vulnerable areas. Conditions begin to worsen in Galveston. By midnight of August 18th, Mayor Manuel orders a mandatory evacuation, which is by than too late. Bridges are inaccessible due to deteriorating weather condition in Galveston.

Alicia undergoes rapid intensification and becomes the first and only major hurricane of the 1983 season. It is getting ever so closer to Galveston. Waves are getting larger, storm surge is getting higher, wind is getting stronger, and rain is getting heavier. Alicia is getting close to make landfall. People who are trying to evacuate are realizing they made a huge mistake. Their complacency proved to be a decision they would regret. The last time, an evacuation was called was in August 1980 when Hurricane Allen was in the Gulf of Mexico. Allen was a Category 5 hurricane before it made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in South Texas. Galvestonians thought they dodged a bullet again. They were proven very wrong. In some cases, it proved deadly.

A little after 1:00 AM, Alicia made landfall southwest of Galveston as a major hurricane. Galveston was getting hammered with strong winds, heavy rain, and storm surge. At landfall, Alicia was slightly larger than average. It had gale force winds extending up to 125 miles and hurricane force winds extending up to 60 miles from the eye. Alicia was not done with Texas. It was moving to the northwest towards the city of Houston. Everyone in Houston had hunkered down for Alicia. It was a very long night.

As Alicia moved further inland, it was weakening, but it did little to quell the fears of Houstonians. Houston was getting violently lashed by Alicia with heavy rain and strong winds. To make matter worse, tornadoes were spawned by Alicia. An area from Hobby Airport to Galveston were hammered by tornadoes. Power lines and transformers were getting blown away. Power outages were wide spread throughout the Houston area. By the time Alicia was over Downtown Houston, it had weakened to a borderline Tropical Storm/Category 1 hurricane. However, the winds were lashing Downtown Houston. The strong winds turned pebbles into bullets, which were on roofs of these at the time new skyscrapers. The pebbles damaged many windows on those downtown buildings. As Alicia progressed, it was weakening into a tropical storm and dumping heavy rain. There was widespread flooding in Southeast Texas from Alicia’s heavy rain. Many areas in the Houston area saw 6 to 10 inches of rain with isolated totals of 11 inches. This is flooding on top of storm surge that flooded coastal areas.

The next morning, people woke up to widespread damage from Alicia. Trees were knocked down, damaging houses, flooding streets, and no power. People are wondering what to do next, rebuild or not. To make matters worse, 21 people died from Alicia. All in all, Alicia did $2.6 billion dollars in damage, making it at the time, the most costliest hurricane in Texas. The name Alicia would be retired from the hurricane name list and be replaced with the name Allison.

Allison was first used in 1989 and it ravages Southeast Texas in the form of a tropical storm that dumps heavy rain. Also, it would ravage Central Louisiana, giving them record rainfall. However, that would not be the last time, Allison would visit Texas. In June of 2001, Tropical Storm Allison visits again and this time it proved to be catastrophic on June 8-9, 2001. Allison dumps extremely heavy rain over Houston and causes $5.5 billion in damages and claims 22 lives. As a result, Allison was retired and replaced with the name, Andrea.

Alicia would not be the last catastrophic hurricane to visit Houston-Galveston area. On September 13, 2008, Ike made landfall on Galveston. Ike was not as strong as Alicia in terms of wind, but was much larger, on the scale of Carla (1961) or Katrina (2005). Ike was extremely catastrophic for Texas and Louisiana, that it is the third most costliest hurricane, only Katrina and Sandy exceed Ike. 84 people in Texas lost their life from Ike and did a total of $37.5 billion in damages basin wide. Hurricane Harvey paid a visit to Texas in August 2017. Harvey dumped heavy rain over a large area. Many areas in Texas and Louisiana had 30 to 40 inches with amounts as high as 80 inches of rain! Harvey claimed a total of 103 lives and did $125 billion in damages. Harvey ties with Katrina as the costliest hurricane in America as of 2023.

NHC-Hurricane Alicia Preliminary Report
Committee On Natural Disasters Hurricane Alicia
Weather Prediction Center-Hurricane Alicia

Incredible Irma

Posted on September 5, 2017 by texashurricane

Hurricane Irma is now a powerful Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph 296 km/h 161 knots hurricane. It has gusts of 235 mph 376 km/h 204 knots. It has a central pressure of 916 millibars. This is a very dangerous hurricane. Here is an infrared satellite up close of Irma.

Very impressive and scary I will say. Here is a wind radii map of Irma.

Hurricane force winds extend up to 50 miles 80 km/h 44 nautical miles. Tropical Storm force winds extend up to 175 miles 280 km/h 152 nautical miles. It is a fairly large hurricane. Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, and St. Kitts Nevis are experiencing tropical storm force winds. They could get hurricane force winds later tonight. It is going to be a very long night for them. If Irma makes landfall at its current strength, it would be one of the strongest tropical cyclones to make landfall in terms of wind. Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, and St. Kitts Nevis could see winds of 180 mph 288 km/h 157 knots with gusts as high as 270 mph 432 km/h 235 knots! The winds are enough to flatten buildings! There is also deadly storm surge and high waves battering the island. It is going to be really rough for them. Let’s hope they are prepared.

The latest Doppler radar shows that there is light rain right now. It is from Meteo-France and out of Guadeloupe and Martinique.

It shows the western eyewall, which could affect them later tonight. The eastern eyewall has the strongest winds and that could come while they sleep. It is going to be a nightmare for them.

Where does Irma go? Here is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

The forecast models have going west-northwest towards Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. From there, Irma could make landfall on Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba. From there, Irma may hit Florida. Where it goes is anyone’s guess. The heat map generally shows once Irma reaches Florida, it goes northward. Keep in mind, this is 5 days away. The heat map shows a low chance that Irma may end up in the Gulf of Mexico. The reason the forecast has Irma going north is a cold front. The cold front is a major factor on where Irma will go. Keep in mind anything can happen and forecast is subject to change.

One wonders how long can Irma be a Category 5 hurricane. Category 5 hurricanes do not last long.

The forecast model keep Irma as a Category 5 hurricane for another 48 hours. If Irma is a Category 5 hurricane for that long, it would be the longest lived Category 5 hurricane. It would be the longest since Ivan in 2004. It may even exceed Ivan and challenge Allen in 1980 or 1932 Cuba Hurricane. That is very telling! Most forecast models have Irma weakening into a Category 4 hurricane, which is still extremely dangerous. However, intensity forecast models are not that reliable. I think Irma could still be a Category 5 hurricane by tomorrow and towards Florida. Again, anything can change.

Antigua, Barbados, Guadeloupe, and St. Kitts Nevis are going to have a long night tonight. Howling winds, heavy rain, high waves, and deadly storm surge are going to be very violent. They could see 8 to 12 inches/20.3 to 30.5 centimeters of rain with amount as high as 20 inches/50.8 centimeters.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Irma will maintain and may get stronger.
-The next morning will be horrible for Antigua, Barbados, Guadeloupe, and St. Kitts Nevis.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, National Hurricane Center, and Meteo-France. Special thanks to all of them.

A New Normal Part 2

Posted on September 1, 2017 by texashurricane

We are living in a new world and reality, a post-Harvey Texas. Just a week ago, a Category 4 monster, Hurricane Harvey was barreling down towards Rockport. Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall on America since Wilma in 2005. I think the National Hurricane Center (NHC) may increase Harvey’s peak to 140 mph 224 km/h 122 knots hurricane. Harvey being the first major hurricane to make landfall since Wilma has been largely overshadowed by the epic flooding that ravaged Houston and Beaumont area. That started on the night of August 26, 2017. A series of core rains that form near the center of Harvey.

One good news, the area of thunderstorms in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico does not pose a threat due to wind shear. It is an area of thunderstorms from a tropical wave. However, a cold front that is passing to Southeast Texas could set off thunderstorms and more rain as it picks up moisture from the tropical wave per NWS Houston.

000 FXUS64 KHGX 020220 AFDHGX


Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

920 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017
.UPDATE...

Forecast for tonight looking on track. Updated temps and

dewpoints for trends.
Beat
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017/
AVIATION...

Sea breeze and outflow boundary are working their way inland with not

a whole lot of wind changes. SHRA activity that did develop late this

afternoon has now moved away from LBX. Look for light and variable

winds overnight with some patchy MVFR fog possible again at CXO. Expect

VFR conditions tomorrow with mainly light and variable winds.  42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT Fri Sep 1 2017/
DISCUSSION...

Current satellite is showing the typical afternoon cumulus field

developing across southeast Texas. There is a little enhanced

cumulus along the coast but the weak seabreeze is having trouble

generating enough lift for anything more than very isolated and

weak showers. This is expected again tomorrow and the dry weather

is greatly appreciated.
Models are still showing an upper level trough dropping into North

Texas tomorrow night though a significant change is a stronger

ridge over the southern Plains pinching the trough off from the

westerly flow and retrograding it back to the southwest earlier

than previous model runs. A more westerly position of this trough

means weaker lift and lower PoPs for Saturday night and Sunday.
Tropical moisture in the southern Gulf of Mexico will move north

early next week giving us our next decent chance for rainfall. At

the same time, a western U.S. ridge will amplify and northerly

upper flow will drive a cold front through the area Tuesday night

and early Wednesday. The tropical moisture already in place will

interact with this cold front producing a line of showers and

storms along the front. Fortunately the cold front will be moving

fairly quickly, especially for this time of year, pushing the rain

south by Wednesday afternoon. Behind the front, cool and dry air

will filter into the area bringing very pleasant temperatures with

highs only in the lower 80s Wed/Thu.

Hennig

There is also a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic that has a good chance of becoming Jose in the next five days. My main concern is Hurricane Irma, which is a Category 3 hurricane out in the Atlantic. Many are wondering where will Irma go. The latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

Most forecast models have Irma moving west southwest direction in the next 5 days. From there, based on GFS ensembles, it could go anywhere. Some have Irma going into the Gulf of Mexico and hitting Louisiana in 10 days. Some have Irma hitting Florida to New York. This is too early too tell and this a low confidence forecast. Anything can happen between now and around September 11, which is the 16th anniversary of horrifying terrorist attacks that killed 3,000 people and destroyed the World Trade Center.

Many on social media may have seen this.

That is bogus. For one, the NHC does not issue forecasts 13 days in advance. They only go up to 5 days in advance. Nobody knows where Irma or any hurricane will go in the next 10 days, let alone 5 days.

The latest intensity forecast are in general agreement that Irma will be a major hurricane. A couple have Irma as a Category 2 fluctuating as Category 3, which happens due to eyewall replacement cycle.

I would not be surprised if Irma becomes a Category 5 hurricane, especially when it gets around the Caribbean. Hurricanes in that part of the Atlantic rarely become Category 5 hurricanes. Irma will have to be watched for September.

A New Normal Part 1

Posted on August 31, 2017 by texashurricane

Texas and Louisiana are slowly recovering from the ravages of Harvey. It is a national tragedy. Harvey is now a tropical depression over Mississippi dumping heavy rain over Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee. They have seen 5 to 8 inches/12.7 to 20.3 centimeters of rain so far. Flooding continues to be a problem for many areas. The Addicks and Barker Reservoir are still bursting at the seams with too much water.

The death toll as of 8/31/2017 is nearly 40. I suspect the death toll is going to be much higher once the flood water recedes. The question is how many. Too early to speculate at this time. If I had to guess, it could be in the hundreds. Katrina claimed more than 1,800 lives, while 9/11 claimed 3,000 lives. 9/11 is a terrorist attack. Harvey could be the deadliest natural disaster since Katrina.

With Harvey no longer a problem, I turn my attention to three areas in the tropics. There are two areas that need to be watched, Hurricane Irma, a low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, and tropical wave emerging from West Africa. Let’s start with Irma.

Irma is now a major hurricane with 115 mph 184 km/h 100 knots with gusts of 145 mph 232 km/h 126 knots. It is moving westward at this time. Many are wondering where will Irma go. Will Irma enter the Gulf of Mexico, make landfall on the East Coast, or become a fish storm? The latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

The forecast models at this point do not have have it getting close to Texas. Some have Irma entering the Gulf of Mexico and hitting the Florida Panhandle. It looks to be a East Coast threat at this point. New York City area is included in the risk area. Again, this is 10 days from now and anything can change between now and next week. Since Irma is a major hurricane, the intensity forecast is interesting.

Most maintain Irma as a Category 3 hurricane. One has it as Category 4 hurricane in two days. Some have Irma as a Category 4 hurricane in three days. I think Irma has the potential to intensify into a Category 5 hurricane, especially when it gets closer to the Caribbean. Irma could be a problem starting next week as it gets closer to land. Irma needs to be watched closely.

Another area of concern is in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. Here is a discussion from National Hurricane Center (NHC)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM


Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  The Weather

Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression

Harvey, located over northern Mississippi.
1. A tropical wave emerging over the far eastern Atlantic is moving

westward at about 15 mph.  Environmental conditions are expected to

become more conducive for development over the weekend and early

next week while the system moves well to the south and southwest of

the Cabo Verde Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. A area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of

Mexico by the weekend, however, environmental conditions are

expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by

that time.  Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coasts are

encouraged to consult products from their local NWS Forecast Office

for more information about impacts from any non-tropical weather

systems.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Public Advisories on Harvey are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KWNH

and under AWIPS header TCPAT4.

Forecaster Zelinsky

I do no think that will develop into something tropical. However, the moisture from it could be a factor for next week as a cold front passes. The cold front could trigger storms in areas that have been flooded. Not a good thing. That will also have to be watched.

Lastly, there is a tropical wave emerging out of West Africa. I think it will be tagged with an Invest in the next couple of days. It has a moderate chance of developing in the next five days. I would not be surprised if this becomes our next named storm, which would be Jose.

Here is what I think will happen.
-The area of thunderstorms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico bears watching, but I do not think it will develop.
-Irma needs to be watched and may pose a threat somewhere.
-Tropical wave emerging from West Africa needs to be watched. Could be Jose.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance and National Hurricane Center. Special thanks to all of them.

This is going to be a long road to recovery. It is a new normal for Texas.

Epic Flood Day 4

Posted on August 30, 2017 by texashurricane

Last night, East Texas and Southwest Louisiana got hit hard by heavy rain. Epic flooding that plagued Houston area is now plaguing East Texas and Southwest Louisiana. Here is a rainfall total map.

Many areas saw over 10 inches/25.4 centimeters of rain. The highest total is over 26 inches/66.04 centimeters of rain! Beaumont/Port Arthur got over 26 inches of rain on August 29 and got 3 inches of rain today. That means they saw at least 29 inches of rain!

000 CXUS54 KLCH 300819 CF6BPT PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6)


                                          STATION:   BEAUMONT PORT ARTHUR

                                          MONTH:     AUGUST

                                          YEAR:      2017

                                          LATITUDE:   29 57 N

                                          LONGITUDE:  94  1 W
  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND

================================================================================

1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18

                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR

================================================================================

1 88 77 83 0 0 18 0.07 0.0 2 86 74 80 -3 0 15 0.29 0.0 3 91 74 83 0 0 18 0.02 0.0 4 90 75 83 0 0 18 0.26 0.0 5 87 74 81 -2 0 16 0.34 0.0 6 92 75 84 1 0 19 0.34 0.0 7 84 74 79 -4 0 14 0.73 0.0 8 87 74 81 -2 0 16 2.42 0.0 9 85 74 80 -3 0 15 0.38 0.0 10 92 75 84 1 0 19 0.00 0.0 11 91 77 84 1 0 19 0.01 0.0 12 92 74 83 0 0 18 0.00 0.0 13 92 74 83 0 0 18 0.00 0.0 14 93 76 85 2 0 20 0.00 0.0 15 89 77 83 0 0 18 1.23 0.0 16 91 78 85 2 0 20 0.02 0.0 17 94 76 85 2 0 20 18 95 76 86 3 0 21 0.00 0.0 19 97 75 86 3 0 21 0.00 0.0 20 92 78 85 2 0 20 0.85 21 92 77 85 2 0 20 0.01 0.0 22 91 75 83 0 0 18 0.23 0.0 23 89 76 83 0 0 18 0.02 0.0 24 92 74 83 0 0 18 0.04 0.0 25 80 73 77 -6 0 12 1.23 0.0 26 81 74 78 -5 0 13 2.74 0.0 27 78 73 76 -7 0 11 8.98 0.0 28 82 72 77 -6 0 12 5.52 0.0 29 74 69 72 -10 0 726.03 0.0 ==================================== SM 2567 2170 0 492 51.76 ==================================== AV 88.5 74.8 ==================================== 0 6.5 15 80 M M 6 19 90 0 6.2 16 130 M M 5 138 21 140 0 5.1 14 30 M M 7 1 17 20 0 3.6 14 160 M M 5 13 17 160 0 4.1 14 150 M M 3 13 20 120 0 7.5 21 290 M M 3 138 30 240 0 4.6 20 280 M M 1 13 26 140 0 5.5 20 190 M M 8 13 25 180 0 4.5 16 140 M M 7 1 21 140 0 4.2 14 250 M M 3 1238 26 210 0 5.8 14 190 M M 1 18 18 180 0 6.1 14 190 M M 1 12 19 180 0 6.3 16 180 M M 2 13 24 250 0 7.7 15 190 M M 2 20 180 0 7.2 22 200 M M 1 138 31 160 0 9.0 20 240 M M 2 8 26 260 T 0.0 0 7.8 14 190 M M 1 19 220 0 4.7 14 100 M M 2 13 17 100 0 3.7 12 180 M M 2 138 15 160 M 0 3.0 8 120 M M 2 13 M M 0 4.3 17 100 M M 3 38 27 330 0 3.4 16 110 M M 2 13X 19 100 0 4.2 17 30 M M 2 13 22 40 0 7.7 23 70 M M 1 3 29 70 0 14.3 23 100 M M 5 13 32 90 0 13.1 26 90 M M 8 13 34 90 0 15.5 30 110 M M 10 13 42 80 0 19.2 28 50 M M 9 13 39 50 0 22.1 35 360 M M 10 13 46 360 ============================================ 0.0 216.9 M 114 ============================================ 7.5 FASTST M M 4 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 35 360 # 46 360 ============================================

The heavy rain that plagued East Texas and Southwest Louisiana happened at night in the form of core rains. The same type of rain that plagued Houston area. Here is the 7 day total.

The rainfall total are from multi-sensor (radar and rain gauge) precipitation estimates obtained from National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) and mosaicked by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There are areas that have gotten over 50 inches/127 centimeters of rain. Some areas have nearly gotten 60 inches/152.4 centimeters of rain! I would not be surprised by the end of the week, some areas get up over 60 inches/152.4 centimeters of rain! The rainfall data is from Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).

As things are drying out and we enter September, the tropics are brewing. You did not misread that. There are two areas of concern. Let’s start with the one in the Gulf of Mexico. There is an area of thunderstorms in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. Yes, that is an area that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching.

The NHC gives that area a low chance of developing in the next 5 days. Here is the discussion from NHC.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM


Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Depression Harvey, located over central Louisiana and on Tropical

Storm Irma, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
1. An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of

Mexico by the weekend.  Development, if any, of this system is

expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.

If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to

portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts.  However, any rainfall

forecast is uncertain at this time range and it is too soon to

determine any specific impacts.  Interests in these areas should

monitor the progress of this system for the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Public Advisories on Irma are issued under WMO header

WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.

Forecast/Advisories on Irma are issued under WMO header

WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Avila

Let’s hope that does not develop into something tropical. If it does, that could mean more rain for flood ravaged Texas and Louisiana. That would be very bad. Regardless, I will keep an eye on that area.

There is also newly developed Tropical Storm Irma. The big question is where Irma goes. Here is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

Looking at the forecast track, it is looking to move more to the northwest. It could affect Bermuda or the East Coast. None of the forecast models have it going into the Gulf of Mexico at this time. Here is the most recent satellite image of Irma.

Looking at Irma, it looks like it is intensifying. The circular pattern and spiral arms suggest that Irma is undergoing rapid intensification. Here is the intensity forecast for Irma.

The forecast models forecasts a Category 1 hurricane in 12 hours. I think Irma could be a major hurricane as early as tomorrow. Frankly, I would not be surprised if Irma becomes a Category 5 hurricane while out in the Atlantic.

Here is what I think will happen.
-The area of thunderstorms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico bears watching.
-Irma will become a major hurricane as early as tomorrow.

The forecast models came from Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS), NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, National Hurricane Center, Naval Research Laboratory Tropical Cyclone Page, Weather.US, Weather Prediction Center (WPC), and National Weather Service. Special thanks to all of them.

Harvey is not just a Houston area disaster. It is a Texas disaster. A disaster that everyone has feared has come true. A disaster of truly epic proportions of a magnitude that one cannot even imagine.

Epic Flood Day 3

Posted on August 29, 2017 by texashurricane

The helicopters flying and boats rescuing people from their flooded out homes. A sight all too common in the Houston area. The Addicks and Barker are bursting with so much water that it has be released to avoid catastrophic and widespread flooding at the cost of flooding neighborhoods. It is on the 12th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina making landfall on Louisiana and Mississippi. I am completely overwhelmed by this disaster as a weather buff. Here is a 7 day rainfall total map from Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS). It is unbelievable amounts I have seen.

Another mind boggling aspect is the large area that received heavy rains.

The green is where at least 10 inches/25.4 centimeters of rain fell. A large area received at least 10 inches/25.4 centimeters or greater! This has to go down as one of the largest rain events in America. We should know once Harvey passes. In the meantime, East Texas and Southwest Louisiana is getting hit by heavy rain. The latest Doppler radar out of NWS Lake Charles shows heavy rain as the storm is over the Gulf of Mexico.

Here is the 24 hour rainfall forecast from GFS, Canadian, EURO, and Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

The forecast models have the heaviest rains east of Houston. This time it is over East Texas and Southwest Louisiana. They have been getting plenty of heavy rain as well.

GFS: 11 inches/27.94 centimeters
Canadian: 10 inches/25.40 centimeters
EURO: 15 inches/38.10 centimeters
WPC: 10.74 inches/27.28 centimeters

As for Houston area, they could see still see rain, including occasional heavy rain. Looking at more moderate rain for Houston. The heavy rain has shifted to East Texas and Southwest Louisiana. Even New Orleans area is getting heavy rain and there is concern for flooding. Some of the pumps are not working, which could flood again like what happened with Katrina.

The million dollar question is where Harvey goes. Here is a heat map from various forecast models.

There is now a consensus among forecast models that Harvey will go northeast after making landfall on Southwest Louisiana as a tropical storm. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center. It is as of 10:00 PM or 2200 CDT:
Location: 29.0°N 93.6°W
Moving: NE at 6 mph 9 km/h 5.2 knots
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph 80 km/h 44 knots

I do not think Harvey will intensify as it makes landfall again as a tropical storm. The reason is the core is a swirl of clouds with no thunderstorms. All the thunderstorms are north and east of the center. Once it makes landfall, Harvey moves quickly to the northeast. I say good riddance to Harvey.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Heavy rain at night, especially near and east of the center, which is East Texas and Southwest Louisiana.
-Not ruling out Houston area getting rain again tonight. Looking not as heavy. More like moderate rain.
-Rainfall amounts could range from 10 to 15 inches/25.4 to 38.1 centimeters of rain with isolated totals approaching and exceeding 20 inches/50.8 centimeters.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, Weather.US, National Hurricane Center, and National Weather Service. Special thanks to all of them.

I am at total loss of words of with Harvey. I cannot imagine what people are going through. This a disaster that I cannot comprehend. It defies any description.

Epic Flood Day 2

Posted on August 28, 2017 by texashurricane

Houston and the surrounding area is under water from the heavy rains of Harvey. So many people are being rescued from their flooded out homes as I type. I am so utterly stunned and horrified at what has been going on. Here is a 7 day rainfall total map from Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS). It is unbelievable amounts I have seen.

The highest is total is over 45 inches/114.3 centimeters! That is over Liberty County. The area of heavy rain is much larger than Allison. Heavy rain from South, Central, and East Texas. This is easily one of the largest flood events in Texas and possibly in American history. Let that all sink in. With more rain forecasted tonight and tomorrow, the total is most certainly going to rise. The forecast of 50 to 60 inches/127 to 152.4 centimeters of rain is not so far-fetched. Let’s look at the ever important rainfall forecast totals up to Friday. They are from GFS, Canadian, EURO, and Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

All of them have more rain coming. The location and amount varies.
GFS: 31 inches/78.74 centimeters
Canadian: 18 inches/45.72 centimeters
EURO: 21 inches/53.34 centimeters
WPC: 17.80 inches/45.21 centimeters

The GFS has the highest, while WPC has the lowest. The GFS and WPC have heaviest rain over Houston area. Canadian has two areas of heavy rain over Houston area and East Texas. The EURO has the heaviest over East Texas. Looks like more heavy rain will fall in the next few days from Harvey. Just the amount and where is the problem.

The million dollar question is where Harvey goes. Here is a heat map from various forecast models.

If there is some good news, the forecast models are on consensus that Harvey is eventually going to move out of Texas. The previous forecast models were low confidences as they were all over the place on where Harvey would go. This time looks Harvey is heading northeastward. However, Harvey is over the Gulf of Mexico, which allows the core to redevelop, which could mean more rain for Houston area. That is a very bad thing. Also, it could allow Harvey to reintensify and head back to land as a tropical storm. Another million dollar question, how strong will Harvey be?

Most forecast models keep Harvey as a tropical storm. Harvey has strengthened somewhat to 45 mph 72 km/h 40 knots. Some have Harvey intensifying, while a couple have Harvey becoming a strong tropical storm. I do no think Harvey will be a hurricane again despite being over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Let’s hope not.

What will tonight be like? Let’s look at High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), Regional Model (RGEM), and Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMM). They are at 0800Z or 3:00 AM CDT. The RGEM has it at 0900Z or 4:00 AM.

All the forecast models agree that there will be thunderstorms firing up near the center of Harvey. The locations vary by forecast model. HRRR has the heaviest rain over Beaumont area and East Texas. NAM has it over Houston area. RGEM has heaviest rain over Houston and Beaumont area. WRF-ARW has heaviest rain over Texas and Louisiana border. WRF-NMM has heaviest rain northeast of Houston. The WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM have the center of Harvey over land, which is not the case as of right now. Heavy rain is possible again tonight, but the forecast models are split on where it will happen. Like I mentioned before with tropical systems, the thunderstorms flare up at night due to the warm core and cooler surrounding temperature.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Heavy rain at night, especially near and east of the center.
-Not ruling out Houston area getting more heavy rain again tonight.
-Rainfall amounts could range from 5 to 10 inches/12.7 to 25.4 centimeters of rain with isolated totals approaching and exceeding 15 inches/38.1 centimeters.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, Tropical Tidbits, National Hurricane Center, Weather.US, and National Weather Service. Special thanks to all of them.

I am at total loss of words of with Harvey. I cannot imagine what people are going through. This a disaster that I cannot comprehend. It defies any description.

Epic Flooding

Posted on August 27, 2017 by texashurricane

The heavy rain that struck Houston area has been nothing short of epic. I am at total loss of words. This is an event that we all so feared and has come to reality. So much rain fell over a large area in a short time. Here is a rainfall total map.

Many areas got over 10 inches of rain since last night. The highest total is over 26 inches of rain. However, NWS Houston has reported 30 inches of rain has fallen, which is no surprise.

000 FXUS64 KHGX 271101 AFDHGX


Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

601 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017
...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR LIFE-THREATENING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING...
.DISCUSSION...

Epic and catastrophic flooding has occurred in and around the

Houston and Galveston areas and surrounding communities overnight,

and very heavy rains continue falling across these areas early

this morning. Rainfall totals between Saturday evening and early

this morning have totaled 15 to 30 inches. Tropical Storm Harvey

is approximately 50 miles east southeast of San Antonio and has

remained nearly stationary all night long. Showers and thunderstorms

along Harvey`s feeder bands have spread 4 to 6 inch per hour producing

rainfall rates resulting in this historic event. Activity continues

spreading across already devastated areas with hourly rainfall

rates averaging around 4 to 5 inches in the Matagorda-Brazoria

County storms and around 6 to 7 inches in the Galveston-Harris

County area storms. We might get a break from the rain some time

later today, but additional storm development is likely overnight.

It is possible that these new storms could become concentrated a

little further westward than this morning`s activity. However,

with Harvey expected to remain in the same general area between

its current location and the coast over the next several days,

additional life-threatening rainfall totals of 15 to 25 inches

with isolated higher amounts are possible across the Flash Flood

Watch area over the next several days, and results could be

devastating if any of these rains fall where catastrophic flooding

has already occurred.  42

&&
.HYDROLOGY...

There have been record crests across numerous bayous across southern

Harris County overnight. Due to the heavy rain, we are expecting

record crests during the week ahead. 43

&&
.MARINE...

Tropical Storm Harvey will move very little in the coming days and

this will maintain a tight enough northeast to east pressure

gradient across the local waters to keep small craft advisory flags

up through at least mid week. Bands of heavy rainfall with embedded

thunderstorms will periodically track across the waters...moving in

from the south and west. Gale force wind gusts and quickly agitated

seas will occur in and around any passing strong thunderstorm cell.

Waterspouts will also be a threat within Harvey`s outer bands. East

to southeast winds will range between 20 to 30 knots with average

wave heights of between 5 to 7 feet with occasional 8 to 9 foot

heights.
Extreme to strong rip currents will continue for a few more days.

Currents and river(s) discharge(s) into the bays will also remain

problematic for navigation for at least a few days (possibly into

next weekend) given this record setting rainfall that has led to

the extreme inland flooding. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)      79  71  81  70  82 /  90  80  70  60  60

Houston (IAH)              79  73  79  72  82 /  90  80  80  70  60

Galveston (GLS)            80  76  82  77  84 /  90  80  80  70  70

&&

The forecast models of where Harvey is going has been nothing but an adventure in frustration. It is depicted in this heat map from various forecast models.

It could either linger over Texas for the next several days. Some models have Harvey going over the Gulf of Mexico and going over Houston area. This is nothing short of frustrating. I am most concern is will it rain again like last night. Let’s look at High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), Regional Model (RGEM), and Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMM). They are at 0800Z or 3:00 AM CDT.

HRRR and NAM have the heaviest rain east of Houston, mostly around Beaumont area. The RGEM, WRF-AWW, and WRF-NMM have the heaviest rains over Houston again. It is not unanimous like last night on where it will happen. However, the forecast models are unanimous on that more heavy rain could fall again tonight. The forecast models got it right last night. I am not ruling out another core rain event again.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Heavy rain at night, especially east of the center.
-Rainfall amounts could range from 10 to 15 inches/25.4 to 38.1 centimeters of rain with isolated totals approaching and exceeding 20 inches/50.8 centimeters.
-Not ruling out Houston area getting more heavy rain again tonight.

This is a very concerning event. As long as Houston area is on the northeast side of Harvey, heavy rain will be a severe problem. Also, if Harvey moves closer to the coast, it can pull in more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Harvey’s core can get more moisture as there is dry air. Regardless of what happens, any more rain is going to make flooding worse.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, Tropical Tidbits, National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS). Special thanks to all of them.

Weather In Review And Forecast For May 31, 2015

Posted on June 1, 2015 by texashurricane

Last week was quite a weather week no one will forget in Texas. Wave after wave of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms plagued Texas. Memorial Day had heavy rain in Central and Southeast Texas. The rain over Houston area proved to be catastrophic as many areas saw 8 to 12 inches of rain on Memorial Day night into the small hours of May 26th. A lot of rain and thunder from that storm. It led to flooding in the Houston area as streets are overloaded with water and bayous are above flood stage. As of June 1, 2015, 31 people have died from flooding in Texas. Here is a rainfall total from the Memorial Day event.

Many areas in the Austin area saw 3 to 7 inches of rain. Areas southeast of Austin got the heaviest rain in Central Texas, up to 8 inches fell in Bastrop County. Southeast Texas took the brunt of the storm as they stalled out and dumped heavy rain on Memorial Day night into the early morning of May 26th. Many areas in Southeast Texas saw 8 to 12 inches of rain. Many people are comparing the Memorial Day storm to 2001 Tropical Storm Allison. Allison dumped 40 inches on Southeast Texas, including over 28 inches of rain in 12 hours on June 8-9, 2001! That storm claimed 23 lives in the Houston area. Allison went on to ravage the entire Gulf Coast and East Coast of America. Allison claimed 41 lives. Many areas from New Orleans, Mobile, Charlotte, Washington, DC, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston saw heavy rain from Allison.

So, how was Spring like for Texas? Here is a 90 day rainfall total from March 1 to May 31.

Many areas in Texas saw over 20 inches of rain! Some saw as high as over 45 inches in North Texas! A weather station in Gainesville, Texas, recorded 28.90 inches of rain for May! Talk about wet! That is almost equivalent to 1 year’s worth of rain for Houston! Houston area saw 20 to 40 inches of rain in Spring! As they say, everything is bigger in Texas! All the rainfall total data is from Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).

Now, why was it wet this past spring? It must be El Nino and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Yup, that is right.

El Nino is the warm water off the west coast of South America in the Pacific Ocean. It is very warm right now. PDO is the area of warm water off the West Coast of America. When both are in warm phases, that means there is more moisture from the Pacific on top of the abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico. A warm Gulf of Mexico produces more moisture for Texas. Also, jet stream goes further south than usual. That means storms tend track over Texas during El Nino. It would explain the west Spring Texas had.

If El Nino can keep up like this, come Fall and Winter, California and Western US is going to get heavy rain like what Texas had. I would not be surprised if California sees a very wet Winter.

This now leads me to the next thing today. It is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. We already had one named storm, Ana. Here is the remaining names for 2015.

Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

With El Nino in place, I forecast a less active season for 2015. However, I am not ruling out a landfall of a Category 3 or above on the US coast. It has been 10 years since the last Category 3 hurricane made landfall, which was Wilma on October 24, 2005. You can read more about my forecast.

Hurricane Alicia

Posted on August 18, 2013 by texashurricane

It has been 30 years ago at this very moment that Hurricane Alicia ravaged Southeast Texas, centered in the Houston metropolitan area. Things have changed a lot in the past 3 decades since Alicia came.

On August 17th, Alicia becomes the first hurricane of the 1983 season. It is slowly moving south-southwest of Galveston. Galveston has been hit by hurricanes in the past. It is also where the deadliest hurricane and natural disaster in American history, the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. It made landfall southwest of Galveston on September 8, 1900. It claimed 12,000 lives, which is more lives lost in the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake (6,000), September 11, 2001 Terrorist Attacks (3,000), and Hurricane Katrina (2,000) combined.

NHC-Hurricane Alicia Preliminary Report
Time-Coping With Nature
USA Today-Hurricane Alicia, 1983

Texas Hurricane

Tag Archives: Allison