A sense of deja vu in this crazy and tragic year of 2020. Nicaragua got hit by two monster hurricanes 12 days apart in the same area by Eta and Iota. It is eerily similar to Laura and Delta did to Louisiana. It comes at a time when the world is ravaged by COVID-19 pandemic. There are over 56 million confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide as of November 18, 2020 per Worldometer. If you want to read about COVID-19 pandemic, head over to my other blog, The Ebola Zone.
Iota is 2020’s strongest hurricane as a Category 5 hurricane. It is likely other hurricanes prior to Iota were Category 5 in 2020 like Eta. Iota is the second known Category 5 hurricane to occur in November. The other being the 1932 Cuba Hurricane. It is possible that Hurricane Lenny in 1999 was Category 5 in November. It is likely Category 5 hurricanes have occurred in November.
Eta and Iota have hit Central America. Central America has some of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes in history. Mitch comes to mind, which claimed over 11,000 lives. Here is a thematic map of Mitch’s death toll. The GIS map is created from QGIS.
Most of Mitch’s death toll occurred in Honduras and Nicaragua. Mitch is the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane after the Great Hurricane of 1780. The death and destruction are from heavy rain and massive flooding. Some areas in Central America likely saw over 100 inches of rain. This would of been in mountainous areas, where rain is heavier.
What is the current death toll from Eta and Iota? Here is a death toll map as of November 18, 2020.
The death toll from Eta and Iota is 220. If missing are including, the death toll rises to 372. I would not be surprised if the death toll is going to be much higher. I am not going to speculate how high it could be. It is made much worse with COVID-19 ravaging the world.
I will keeping an eye on the Atlantic basin and COVID-19 pandemic.
Monster Hurricane Eta is off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. It is a monster Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. Here is the most recent advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
000
WTNT34 KNHC 030251
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ETA HAS CONTINUED
TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of of the eye of dangerous
Hurricane Eta was located by reconnaissance aircraft and radar from
San Andreas near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. Eta is
moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A
slower westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by
Tuesday afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the
coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area early Tuesday.
The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday night, and then move across central
portions of Honduras on Thursday.
Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta
is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours, and
Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before it makes landfall.
Weakening will begin after the cyclone moves inland. An Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is currently investigating Eta
and will provide more data tonight.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
The minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is
estimated to be 927 mb (27.38 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:
Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).
Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).
Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).
Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.
El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)
This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
000
WTNT44 KNHC 030259
TCDAT4
Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found that Eta has
explosively deepened into a strong category 4 hurricane with maximum
sustained winds of 130 kt and a minimum central pressure of 927 mb.
Eta has maintained a small 10-nmi-wide eye that is evident in
satellite imagery and on the San Andreas, Colombia, weather radar.
The radar data also suggest that concentric eyewalls may be forming,
which would be an indication of the onset of an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) and a capping of Eta's intensity and also an end to the
rapid intensification cycle of the past 36 hours. The initial
intensity of 130 kt kt is based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 137
kt and SFMR surface winds of 130 kt. Some additional strengthening
is expected, and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before
landfall occurs. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it
moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.
Eta has slowed and is now moving southwestward or 245/06 kt. There
is no significant change to previous track forecast reasoning. A
mid-level ridge over the south-central United States should steer
Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua with the
hurricane making landfall early Tuesday. After landfall, Eta should
turn westward and then west-northwestward, and move across Central
America through Thursday. Eta's low-level circulation may not
survive its passage over the mountainous terrain of Central America,
but most of the global models continue to depict a cyclone or its
remnants moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by late-week and
into the weekend. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast continues to
show the system emerging over the northwestern Caribbean late in the
period, although this portion of the track forecast remains
uncertain.
Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat.
Key Messages:
1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early
Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the
coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents
there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm
Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.
2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.
3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely
lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides
in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also
possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern
Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 14.1N 82.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.9N 83.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 13.9N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 13.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 14.3N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z 14.8N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z 15.4N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 16.8N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NHC forecasts a Category 5 hurricane. Looking at the satellite image, I think Eta is already a Category 5 hurricane. Here is a forecast model for Eta from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). All forecasts are from NCAR unless specified.
A couple of forecast models have Eta as a Category 5 hurricane, Most have it weakening. Intensity forecast models are unreliable. I think Eta will be a Category 5 hurricane. Here are my reasoning. I look at the water. Here is the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential from Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential map of the Gulf of Mexico from NOAA.
The water off of Honduras and Nicaragua is warm, which is conducive for rapid intensification. The waters are quite warm as it goes deep. The deep warm water makes it favorable for intensification including rapid intensification. Here is a map of Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity from The Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies.
The Caribbean can support a powerful Category 5 hurricane with winds as high as 180 mph and central pressure of 880 millibars! Warm water is not the only factor to look at. I look at wind shear. Here is a wind shear map from CIMSS.
The wind shear level around Eta is low. That makes it favorable for further intensification into Category 5 hurricane. Low wind shear and warm water is favorable for intensification. Eta has both, which is going to be really problematic for Central America. Where does Eta go? Here is a heat map of forecast models. The heat map use points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. I used the latest forecast, which is 0000Z. The heat is generated by QGIS.
Most forecast models have Eta making landfall on either Nicaragua or Honduras. It looks to make landfall as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. It is going to be really bad on top of the COVID-19 pandemic plaguing the world. Honduras has over 98,000 confirmed cases, while Nicaragua has over 5,500 confirmed cases per Worldometer. I suspect the cases numbers are much higher in Honduras and Nicaragua as COVID-19 has ravaged the Americas. Central America has had deadly history with hurricanes. Some of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes have occurred in Central America. Hurricane Fifi and Mitch are some of the deadliest hurricanes known.
Hurricane Fifi went slowly across Central America in September 1974. The hurricane brought heavy rain over Honduras, which led to deadly flooding and mudslide. Fifi made landfall on Placencia, Belize as a Category 2 hurricane. The death toll from Fifi is up to 10,000 people killed. Most of the deaths occurred in Honduras.
An even deadlier hurricane occurred in late October 1998, Mitch. It is a powerful Category 5 monster that lingered over the Caribbean. It had 180 mph winds and central pressure of 905 millibars. Mitch is the strongest hurricane since Gilbert in 1988. It is also one of the most intense hurricanes on record for the Atlantic as of 2020. Mitch made landfall east of La Ceiba, Honduras as a Category 1 hurricane.
Mitch lingered over Central America dumping heavy rain over a large area. Many areas see rain amounts of over 60 inches with amounts as high as 100 inches or higher! The massive rainfall totals lead to deadly flooding and mudslide. The floods claim at least 19,000 lives, mainly in Honduras and Nicaragua. Mitch is the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane after the Great Hurricane of 1780.
Does this mean Eta will be another Fifi or Mitch? I am not in anyway suggesting Eta will be another Fifi or Mitch. Since Eta is forecasted to linger over Central America, that could be a severe problem. It depends on how long Eta lingers and size of the storm. Eta has tropical storm force winds extending up to 125 miles, while Mitch had tropical storm force winds extending up to 175 miles. Mitch was over Central America for 5 days, while Fifi stayed off the coast for 3 days before making landfall. It is no wonder that Fifi and Mitch were really devastating for Central America. Mitch is much worse as it lingered over land for 5 days and dumped extremely heavy rain over mountainous areas.
It is going to be a horrific disaster for Honduras and Nicaragua. Too much to bear in this horrible year of 2020. This could make COVID-19 worse for Honduras and Nicaragua. They really need to prepare for Eta.
Texas Hurricane 