NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 14 OR_ABI-L1b-RadF-M6C14_G16_s20202352000214_e20202352009522_c20202352010008.nc
Or more like triple trouble with the COVID-19 pandemic raging the world. There are two tropical threats as the tropics are heating up, Laura and Marco. This comes as 2020 has already produced 13 storms. It is ahead of the active 2005 season. One difference is that 2005 had 2 major hurricanes by August, Dennis and Emily. We have no major hurricanes so far in 2020. There have been two hurricanes, Hanna and Isaias. It comes at a time with the coronavirus spreading in America and around the world. If you want to get more information about the COVID-19 pandemic, check out my other blog, The Ebola Zone.
Having two tropical cyclones close together makes a complicated forecast. Here are heat map forecast for Laura and Marco. I used the latest forecast, which is 1800Z, including the GFS ensemble from 1200Z, and 1200Z forecast to create the heat map. I got them from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is also where I get the intensity forecast model. They are heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius. They are created with QGIS.
Laura
Marco
Both have Laura and Marco heading to Louisiana by next week. I consider this a low confidence and complex forecast. It is going to depend on how strong Marco is going to be as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico. It also depends on where Laura goes. If Laura goes over Cuba, it will reduce any chance of intensifying until enters the Gulf of Mexico. A weakened Laura is more likely to go westward. I expect the forecast models to change again due to the complex nature of Laura and Marco being close and other weather related factors. Having two tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico is a rarity. It has occurred in 1933 and 1959. I am pretty sure the Gulf of Mexico has had two tropical cyclones at the same time prior to the 20th century.
An even more complicated factor is intensity. How strong will Laura and Marco get?
Laura
Marco
The intensity forecast for Laura has it as a Category 2 hurricane. Some have it as a Category 3 and one has it as a Category 4 hurricane. The intensity for Marco have it as a strong tropical storm to Category 1 hurricane. Two of them have Category 2 hurricane. Intensity forecast models are unreliable. I am not going to put much stock in them. I would not be surprised if Laura and Marco undergo rapid intensification as they are in the Gulf of Mexico.
As to where Laura and Marco go, that is going to be yet determined. I think it will change again. I consider the forecast low confidence regardless of what forecast model it is be it GFS, EURO, ICON, or Canadian. Until then, we all need to keep an eye on Laura and Marco. The tropics are just starting to heat up.
Texas Hurricane 