It is getting cold across America including Texas. It comes at a time when the world is ravaged by the coronavirus. If you want to read more about the pandemic, head over to my other blog, The Ebola Zone.
The forecast models are all over the place of how low it will go. The consensus is the lowest temperature will be on Tuesday. Here are forecast models from Weather.US. They diverge on how low it will go at 6:00 AM on February 16, 2021.
The forecast modes are:
EURO (European)
ICON (German)
GFS (American)
GEM (Canadian)
ACCESS-G (Australia)
UK (United Kingdom)
ARPEGE (France)
CMA (China)
GDAPS/UM (South Korea)
The ICON, Canadian, and UK have the coldest temperature. They forecast single digit lows in Houston! ICON has parts of Oklahoma hitting a low of -29°F! The CMA has a relatively balmy 20s as lows. That is the highest forecast low.
I ran a statistical analysis using JASP. The forecast lows are from forecast models for Houston.
| EURO (European) | 16 |
| ICON (German) | 8 |
| GFS (American) | 13 |
| GEM (Canadian) | 7 |
| ACCESS-G (Australia) | 19 |
| UK (United Kingdom) | 6 |
| ARPEGE (France) | 19 |
| CMA (China) | 23 |
| GDAPS/UM (South Korea) | 18 |
Mean: 14.333°F
Median: 16°F
Standard Deviation: 6.124
95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound: 9.626°F
95% Confidence Interval Upper Bound: 19.040°F
The mean low is around 14°F and median low is 16°F. The 95% Confidence Interval range are from 9.6°F to 19.04°F. It is probable the low will be somewhere between 9°F to 19°F. There is a five percent chance that it is not in the true mean. It means it could be close to 0°F or above freezing. I can say with 95% confidence that the low is probably going to be somewhere between 9°F to 19°F with the mean at 14°F.
The UK forecast model low would tie with February 1899 lows. There was an epic cold blast that engulfed America. Houston had lows of 6°F back to back! The back to back lows were on February 12 and February 13, 1899. It is truly a freeze that is yet to be seen again since then. The closest being December 1989, which Houston had a low of 7°F on December 23, 1989! It is likely Houston had single digit lows in the January 1886 cold blast. Prior to 1886, it is likely Houston had cold blasts in single digits and even sub zero lows! This would of occurred before weather was measured.
The forecast lows are subject to change. It will likely change again come tomorrow.
Texas Hurricane 