2016 And 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Christmas is sure looming, but the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is not too far away, six months from now. I am going to also look at 2017 Hurricane Season, which would be second year following the strong El Nino of 2015-2016. That is eighteen months from now at the writing of this article.

Analog Years For 2016 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1878 12/10/2 181 15.1
1889 9/6/0 104 11.6
1897 6/3/0 55 9.2
1942 11/4/1 63 5.7
1958 10/7/5 121 12.1
1998 14/10/3 182 13.0

Here is the overall Atlantic Hurricane Season Statistics

1870-2015 Atlantic Hurricane
Mean
9.82/5.49/2.03
10/5/2 (Round Up

Median
9/5/2

Standard Deviation
4.20/2.62/1.66

ACE
Mean
91.82

Median
83.00

Standard Deviation
53.77

ACE/Storm
Mean
9.38

Median
8.70

Standard Deviation
4.06

I came up with the analog for 2016, since we are in El Nino and once El Nino fades, La Nina comes and it can get strong. It is based on past El Nino and warm Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Here is the statistics for 2016 Analog Season.

2016
Mean
10.33/6.67/1.83
11/7/2 (Round Up)

Median
10.50/6.50/1.50
11/7/2 (Round Up)

Standard Deviation
2.73/2.94/1.94

ACE
Mean
117.67

Median
112.50

Standard Deviation
55.25

ACE/Storm
Mean
11.12

Median
11.85

Standard Deviation
3.28

Looking at it, it is above average ranging from number of storms and hurricanes. Major hurricanes is about the same. However, keep in mind, anything before satellite should taken with a grain of salt. Seasons prior to satellite would of likely had more storms than recorded, but they could be in the middle of the Atlantic or some short lived tropical storm. Seasons like 1889 and 1897 likely had major hurricanes.

So, what is my prediction for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
10 to 16 named storms, likely 14 named storms
6 to 10 hurricanes, likely 8 hurricanes
2 to 5 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 110 to 190 with ACE likely of 130 to 160

Looks to be an active 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Here is a GIS heat map I created for 2016 analog seasons. It is within 300 miles.

2016DecemberAnalogHurricaneHeatMap

Looking at the heat map, there are areas most at risk. Off the Eastern Seaboard with North Carolina most at risk. Haiti and Dominican Republic, Caribbean and Cuba, Southwest Florida, and Gulf of Mexico. Anywhere is at risk, but those areas especially are the ones to keep an eye on. Let’s see what 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast.

Analog Years For 2017 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1879 8/6/2 64 8.0
1890 4/2/1 33 8.3
1898 11/5/1 113 10.3
1943 10/5/2 94 9.4
1959 11/7/2 77 7.0
1999 12/8/5 177 14.8

I came up with the analog for 2017, based on the second year following El Nino. Warm AMO is taken into account. Here is the statistics for 2017 Analog Season.

2017
Mean
9.33/5.50/2.17
10/6/2 (Round Up)

Median
10.50/5.50/2.00
11/6/2 (Round Up)

Standard Deviation
2.94/2.07/1.47

ACE
Mean
93

Median
85.50

Standard Deviation
49.30

ACE/Storm
Mean
9.63

Median
8.85

Standard Deviation
2.78

Looking at it, 2017 is closer to average than 2016. Interestingly, there are more major hurricanes on average than compared to 2016 analog seasons. Still, looking at the actual analog seasons, it is generally less active. Again, keep in mind, anything before satellite should be taken with a grain of salt. There were likely more storms before satellite era that went undetected.

So, what is my prediction for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
9 to 14 named storms, likely 12 named storms
4 to 9 hurricanes, likely 7 hurricanes
2 to 4 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 100 to 180 with ACE likely of 120 to 150

Here is a GIS heat map I created for 2017 analog seasons. It is within 300 miles.

2017DecemberAnalogHurricaneHeatMap

Looking at the hot spots, West Indies, Lesser Antilles, Caribbean and Cuba, Off the Eastern Seaboard, Bahamas, and Western Gulf of Mexico with Texas and Louisiana at most risk. Again, anywhere is at risk, but those areas especially are the ones to keep an eye on.

The 2016 and 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast is all preliminary at this time. It is subject to change. I should have a better idea about the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season in April 2016 and for 2017, April 2017. That would be sixteen months from now of course. This is just a thought because of the strong El Nino we have and what impact a strong El Nino has on the Atlantic. By Summer 2016, it could be still El Nino. It could also be Neutral or La Nina by than. Until than, please check back in April 2016 for the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast.

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