April 2018 Hurricane Season Forecast

Many areas are still reeling from Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Many people lost their properties and are rebuilding. Some lost their life. Hurricane Season is coming as it starts on June 1, 2018.

Colorado State University
14/7/3 ACE: 130

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
11 to 15 Storms/5 to 7 Hurricanes/1 to 3 Major Hurricanes ACE: 90 to 110

Tropical Storm Risk
12/6/2 ACE: 84

Accuweather
12 to 15 Storms/6 to 8 Hurricanes/3 to 5 Major Hurricanes

The Weather Channel
13/7/2

The analog years I am using are in which previous winter is a weak to moderate La Nina. The forecast is uncertain with El Nino or Neutral.

Based on this, the analog years are 1891, 1945, 1963, 1989, 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2012. They are coming off of a La Nina. Of course, there are other factors in play besides El Nino. I look at Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), Southern Ocean/Roaring Forties, Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD is based on Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecast.

Analog Years For 2018 (TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm)
1891 10/7/1 116 11.6
1945 11/5/2 63 5.7
1963 9/7/2 118 13.1
1989 11/7/2 135 12.3
1996 13/9/6 166 12.8
2001 15/9/4 110 7.3
2006 10/5/2 79 7.9
2012 19/10/2 129 6.8

What affect did those analog seasons have? Let’s start with 1891. Hurricane #1 hit Galveston after intensifying into Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds on July 6, 1891. Galveston was flooded from storm surge. It spawned tornadoes in Baton Rouge, which hit a prison, killing 10 people. There is also Hurricane #3 better known as as the Martinique Hurricane was the only major hurricane for the 1891 season. It intensified into a Category 3 hurricane later that day and hit Martinique. There were reports of lightning, which suggests the hurricane was intensifying. Martinique was leveled by strong winds and power waves. Once the hurricane passed, at least 700 people died from the hurricane. Some put the death toll as high as 1,000. The hurricane traverses and makes landfall on Dominican Republic as a Category 2 hurricane. Than it goes northward towards Grand Turk of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The hurricane goes over Bahamas and makes landfall on South Florida as a Category 1 hurricane.

1945 had two major hurricanes hit the US. There is Hurricane #5 or 1945 Texas Hurricane. It made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane over Port Aransas on August 27, 1945. It was a slow moving hurricane as it moved slowly across Texas pelting with strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain. Some areas saw storm surge as high as 15 feet. The moisture swath could be felt as far as Tampa Bay. The slow movement caused rainfall amounts of 20 inches with amounts likely over 30 inches. The hurricane claimed 3 lives and caused $20 million in damages. Hurricane #9 or 1945 Homestead hurricane is the most intense hurricane to strike Florida since the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. It was a rather small hurricane. It went over Bahamas and Grand Turk Island as it intensifies. It made landfall on Key Largo as a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds. It emerges out of Florida and makes landfall between Georgia and South Carolina as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. A total of 26 people died, including 22 in Bahamas and Grand Turk Island. Four died in the US.

1963 was a devastating season. Hurricane Cindy developed in the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on High Island on September 17, 1963. It stalls over Southeast Texas and dumps heavy rain in amounts of of nearly 24 inches measured. It is certainly possible higher rainfall amounts fell in East Texas. Cindy claimed 3 lives. Hurricane Flora is a large Category 4 hurricane. It was a Cape Verde Hurricane. Once it approached Haiti, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, and Cuba, it stalls out. Flora dumps extremely heavy rain, especially in mountainous areas. In a six day period, some areas see over 100 inches of rain in Cuba, with likely higher amounts. Flora is the wettest known Atlantic tropical cyclone. 8,000 people died from massive flooding from Flora. Flora ranks as one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes besides 1780 Hurricane, 1900 Galveston, Mitch (1998), and Fifi (1974).

1989 was an active season. Tropical Storm Allison, which formed from remnant of East Pacific Hurricane Cosme. Allison paid a visit to the Upper Texas Coast on June 27, 1989 with 50 mph wind. Many areas saw 10 to 20 inches with the highest being 30 inches. Eleven people lost their life in Texas Louisiana, and Mississippi. Hurricane Chantal and made landfall on High Island, Texas on August 1, 1989 as a Category 1 hurricane. Chantal produced three feet storm surge at Galveston. An area from Southern Harris County, Fort Bend, and Galveston County saw 8 to 12 inches of rain with amounts as high as 20 inches in Friendswood. Thirteen people die, including 11 offshore. Hurricane Hugo is the most intense hurricane of 1989, which peaked at 160 mph and central pressure of 918 millibars. Hugo first ravages the Caribbean as a monster hurricane. It flattens almost every building in Guadeloupe, Montserrat, St. Croix, and Puerto Rico. Hugo makes landfall as a Category 4 hurricane. Hugo produces monster storm surge in the Charleston area due to its large size. 35 people lost their life in America. Hurricane Jerry is the second hurricane to hit the Upper Texas Coast in 1989. Jerry makes landfall on Jamaica Beach. Galveston sees 75 mph winds with gusts as high as 100 mph. The storm surge destroys a section of State Highway 87. Houston does not feel much impact from Jerry due to it small size. Three people died from Jerry all in Galveston as they were driving on the Galveston Sea Wall.

1996 had many major hurricanes form, more so than 1995. Hurricane Bertha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane on North Carolina on July 12, 1996. It peaked as a Category 3 hurricane near Puerto Rico. Bertha traversed across the Eastern Seaboard with heavy rain and strong winds. Bertha claimed 12 lives. Hurricane Cesar made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on Bluefields, Nicaragua on July 27, 1996. It dumped heavy rain over Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and El Salvador. A total of 142 people, which includes 29 missing, mostly in Central America. Cesar crosses into the Pacific and becomes Douglas, which a rare crossover. Douglas is a power Category 4 hurricane. Hurricane Fran formed on August 23, 1996 as a Cape Verde Hurricane. It developed with Hurricane Edouard to the east. Fran becomes a Category 3 hurricane off the Bahamas and is a large hurricane. It made landfall on September 5, 1996 near Cape Fear, North Carolina as a Category 3 hurricane. Fran ravaged the Carolinas with strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain. It moved northward towards Virginia as it is weakening. Fran becomes more of a rain event as winds are diminishing. Once Fran is gone, a total of 27 lives are lost. Hurricane Hortense formed on September 3, 1996. It was slow to develop and first strikes Guadeloupe as a tropical storm on September 8, 1996. It becomes a hurricane on September 9, 1996. Not too long after Hortense made landfall around Guánica, Puerto Rico as a Category 1 hurricane. It emerges and hits the eastern tip of Dominican Republic. As Hortense moves northward it becomes a Category 4 hurricane and makes its final landfall on West Quoddy, Nova Scotia as a Category 1 hurricane. Hortense dumped flooding rains in Puerto Rico. Hortense claimed a total of 39 lives. Hurricane Lili was a long lived hurricane that formed on October 14, 1996. It ravages Central America, Cuba, Bahamas, and United Kingdom. It made landfall on Matanzas Province, Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane on October 18, 1996. Than heads towards Bahamas where it goes over San Salvador Island and Great Exuma on October 19, 1996. Lili becomes a Category 3 hurricane. Than Lili hits United Kingdom as a strong extratropical storm. Once it is all over, 22 lives, mostly in Central America.

2001 started with Tropical Storm Allison. It made landfall on June 5, 2001 near Freeport, Texas. It lingered over Texas dumped heavy rain. On the early morning of June 7, 2001, heavy rain fell in Beaumon and Sugar Land, Texas. Up to 15 inches of rain fell along feeder band. Louisiana got heavy rain from the large circulation of Allison. Than on the evening of June 8, 2001, thunderstorms form near the center of Allison. Than they all converge over Houston dumping heavy rain for nearly 12 hours. Once it is all over, up to 28 inches fell! A total of 40 inches fell from June 5 to 10 near Beaumont, Texas. Thibodaux, Louisiana got nearly 30 inches of rain. The heavy rain led to severe flooding in Houston area, the worst prior to Harvey. Allison traversed across the Southeastern and Northeastern US dumping heavy rain. Hurricane Gabrielle formed on September 11, 2001, the day America was attacked in New York, Arlington, and Shanksville. It made landfall on September 14, 2001 near Venice, Florida as America was mourning the victims of horrifying terrorist attack. Hurricane Iris was a powerful October hurricane. Iris traveled the Caribbean and rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. On October 8, 2001, Iris makes landfall on Monkey River Town, Toledo, Belize. A 70 mile area is ravaged by strong winds and storm surge. The hurricane claimed 23 lives in Belize and 36 lives including Guatemala, Dominican Republic, and Mexico. Later in the month, Hurricane Michelle forms. Michelle formed near Nicaragua on October 29, 2001 and moved inland near Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua. It lingered over Nicaragua and Honduras for more than a day dumping heavy rain. 98 people died in Nicaragua and Honduras from deadly flooding, which happened three years to the day Hurricane Mitch ravaged Central America with epic rainfall and flooding. Michelle exits Central America into the Caribbean. It undergoes rapid intensification into a Category 4 hurricane. Michelle makes landfall first on Cayo Largo del Sur, Cuba on November 4, 2001. It moves into Bay of Pigs. Cuba is ravaged by strong winds, waves, storm surge, and heavy rain. Five people died in Cuba from Michelle. Michelle moves northward towards Bahamas on November 5, 2001 and becomes an extratropical storm due to interaction with a cold front.

2006 was predicted to be just as active as 2005. Turned out to be an average season due to a developing El Nino and dry Saharan Desert air blowing over the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Alberto landfall on Florida on June 13, 2006 with 45 mph winds. Many areas in the Southeastern US, Grand Cayman, and Cuba have heavy rain. Two people died in Florida, and one died in North Carolina. Four sailors off the coast of Newfoundland Canada went missing when Alberto is an extratropical storm. Hurricane Ernesto formed west of Grenada on August 24, 2006. It becomes a hurricane southwest of Haiti on August 27, 2006 with 75 mph winds. Ernesto weakens as it interacts with the mountains of Haiti and Dominican Republic. Ernesto makes landfall on Cuba. Ernesto and Florida. Ernesto traverses over Florida be emerging over the Atlantic, which intensifies to 70 mph and possibly a Category 1 hurricane. Ernesto makes landfall on Oak Island, North Carolina on August 31, 2006. Five people died in Haiti, while two died in Virginia when Ernesto is an extratropical storm.

2012 proved to be an active season. Hurricane Isaac was a large Category 1 hurricane that hit New Orleans area and Mississippi. It moved slowly as it dumped heavy rain and produced high storm surge. A large area saw at least 10 inches of rain. The hurricane tested the newly improved levee and flood control system that was ravaged by Katrina in 2005. Hurricane Sandy is the most intense hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season. It is best known as Superstorm Sandy, when it was a very large hurricane/extratropical storm hybrid as it had tropical storm force winds diameter of 1,150 miles! Before it became the superstorm, it hit near Kingston, Jamaica as a Category 2 hurricane on October 24, 2012 and Santiago de Cuba, Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane on October 25, 2012. As it went towards the Atlantic, Sandy got larger as it showed more of an extratropical storm like appearance with a warm core. Than Sandy made landfall as a large extratropical storm with Category 1 winds on Brigantine, New Jersey on October 29, 2012. Sandy set numerous records from lowest air pressure to high storm surge. Battery Park, New York had nearly 14 feet storm surge. Sandy is the most hurricane to make landfall northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It also dumped heavy rain mainly over Maryland and Delaware of nearly 13 inches of rain. Sandy claimed a total of 233 lives and did $68.7 billion in damages. Sandy was the second costliest hurricane prior to Harvey and Maria.

Here is a heat map of analog seasons. It is based on 300 mile radius from the storms.

The heat map has Upper Texas Coast, Southeast Georgia, Carolinas, and Windward Islands. However, when you look at the whole basin, everyone is at risk for landfall. I never make landfall predictions. Everyone is at equal risk for landfall.

Analog
Mean
12.25/7.38/2.63
12/7/3 (Rounded Up)

Median
11/7/2

Standard Deviation
3.33/1.85/1.60

ACE
Mean
114.50

Median
117

Standard Deviation
32.14

ACE/Storm
Mean
9.69

Median
9.75

Standard Deviation
3.03

How do analog seasons compare as a whole. Statistics from 1870 to 2017.

Mean
9.91/5.53/2.07
10/6/2

Median
9.5/5/2
10/5/2

Standard Deviation
4.24/2.63/1.69

ACE
Mean
93.09

Median
83.5

Standard Deviation
54.66

ACE/Storm
Mean
9.41

Median
8.68

Standard Deviation
4.04

The analog seasons are within standard deviation, which indicates this upcoming hurricane season is going to be within average.

What is my prediction for this season?
11 to 16 named storms, likely 13 named storms
4 to 10 hurricanes, likely 7 hurricanes
1 to 4 major hurricanes with 3 major hurricanes
ACE is 80 to 140 with ACE likely of 100 to 125

Let’s see how my April 2017 hurricane forecast compare to the actual 2017 season.

6 to 12 named storms, likely 10 named storms
3 to 8 hurricanes, likely 6 hurricanes
1 to 3 major hurricanes with 2 major hurricanes
ACE is 65 to 110 with ACE likely of 70 to 100

Colorado State University
11/4/2 ACE: 75

Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell)
10 to 12 Storms/4 to 6 Hurricanes/1 to 2 Major Hurricanes ACE: 75 to 95

Tropical Storm Risk
11/4/2 ACE: 67

Accuweather
10/5/3

The Weather Channel
12/6/2

2017 Actual Number
17 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes
224 ACE

Many including myself severely underforecasted the 2017 season, which turned out to be active and brutal. The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season was overforecasted as it turned out to be a quiet season. There is always room for improvement.

Regardless of forecast, I think 2018 could be an interesting hurricane season. It is the same Atlantic name list used in the 2012 season, which produced Isaac and Sandy. Sandy is retired due to devastating effects on the Eastern Seaboard and Cuba.

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What Will Mid January 2018 Be Like?

It has been cold lately. It is a cold start for 2018. There have been cold start to the new year like in 1928 and 1979.

Will there be more cold weather? The Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 Day Analog could offer some insight.

Some of the analog dates are interesting.
1/19/2001-Cold blasts come on 1/29 with a low of 26°F. The lows would be freezing every night up to 1/23.
1/21/1978-January 1978 is the coldest month on record for Houston. A brief warming occurred on 1/24. It gets cold again on 1/25.
1/29/1952-Heavy rain falls on 2/1. Rainfall totals are Houston WB: 3.22″; Hobby: 3.88″; Galveston: 6.29″. Hobby and Galveston have their wettest 2/1 as of 2018. It is the wettest February day on record for Hobby and Galveston as of 2018.
1/1/1985-A series of cold waves occur in January 1985. Snow falls on 1/2-1/3 and 1/12. A low of 16°F occurred on 1/21.
1/23/1986-A cold blasts went east of Texas. On 1/28, Space Shuttle Challenger launches despite cold weather. The space shuttle explodes in front of horrified audiences and students at school watching the launch.
1/28/1959-Heavy rain falls between 1/29 to 2/4. Rainfall totals are Houston WB: 6.36″; Hobby: 6.93″; Galveston: 2.60″. 3.69″ fell on 2/1 at Houston WB, which is wettest 2/1 as of 2018. It is the wettest February day on record for Houston as of 2018. 2.14″ fell on 1/29 and 0.94″ on 2/2 at Hobby, which is wettest 1/29 and 2/2 as of 2018.
1/11/1961-Snow fell on 1/25. Houston received a trace of snow.

Looking at those analog dates, they mostly had cold blasts. A couple of them had heavy rain. This would suggest we could see another cold blast in mid January. Perhaps we could also see snow or other wintry precipitation. Anything can change.

2017-2018 Winter Forecast

Winter has started and Christmas has passed. It is very cold throughout America. Last winter we had a borderline Neutral/La Nina. This time around, we have La Nina. Other factors to consider are Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Northeast Pacific Warm Pool (NEPWP), Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIOI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Tropical South Atlantic (TSAI), Roaring Forties (R40I), Hudson and Baffin Bay (HBB), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). However, since this El Nino is large and strong and has significant impact, it will weigh in more than other factors listed. Here are the analog winters I came up with.

1881-1882
1928-1929
1933-1934
1937-1938
1944-1945
1949-1950
1961-1962
1984-1985
2000-2001

I chose these winters because the previous winter was La Nina or Neutral. Here is a table I created to identify strongest analogs.

Year AMO PDO NEPWP EIOI IOD TSAI R40I HBB QBO Total
1881-1882     1 1 1   1     4
1928-1929 1 1     1     1   4
1933-1934 1 1 1 3
1937-1938 1 1 2
1944-1945 1 1 1 1   1 1 1   7
1949-1950 1 1 1   1 1     1 6
1961-1962 1 1 1     1 1     5
1984-1985       1 1 1 1   1 5
2000-2001 1 1 1 1 1 1 1   1 8

I look at eight ocean and one upper wind patterns based on Fall (September to November) averages. The cutoff for further analysis is four (before 1948 due to QBO data not available). With QBO, the cutoff is five. We can eliminate these winters.
1933-1934
1937-1938

The analogs I will be looking at are:
1881-1882
1928-1929
1944-1945
1949-1950
1961-1962
1984-1985
2000-2001

Let’s start with the ever important temperature. All maps were generated with 20th Century Reanalysis Monthly Composites. They are all Northern Hemisphere.

Alaska, Bering Sea, Southern US, Eastern US, Eastern Canada, Greenland, and Western China are warmer than normal. Arctic, Siberia, Korea, Japan, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, North Africa, Western US, and Western Canada are cooler than normal. Southeast Texas is warmer. Keep in mind, some areas do not have weather records, so this may be spurious as it includes 1881-1882.

Wonder what winter will be like in the rain department?

It is drier in Western US, Western Canada, Southeast US, Cuba, Bahamas, Southern China, Central Asia, Western Europe, and Northern Europe. It is wetter in Central US, Caribbean, Alaska, Northern Japan, Southeast Asia, and North Africa. Southeast Texas sees average amount of rain in the winter. Again, this may be spurious as it includes 1881-1882.

Let’s look at the upper air pattern.

There is upper level ridging south of Alaska, which is negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO), Eastern US, Siberia, Greenland, and Northeast Canada. Ridging over Greenland and Northeast Canada is negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). There is troughing over Central Canada and one running from Japan, Korea, and to all of Central Asia. Negative NAO and EPO usually means cold air will go down south.

How were winters like in these analog years?

1881-1882
A warm winter dominated the US. Southeast Texas had a warm winter.

1928-1929
A cold blast came on the start of 1929 in Southeast Texas. Another hard freeze came in February 1929. It did not go above freezing on February 9, 1929 with high of 29°F.

1944-1945
A world engulfed in World War II. No freezes occurred in Southeast Texas.

1949-1950
Most of the US had a warm winter, including Southeast Texas.

1961-1962
Snow fell in Houston area in December 1961. January 1962 had a strong cold blast in America. A strong high pressure with pressure of 1062 millibars was recorded. Many areas saw record lows set. Houston saw a record low on January 10, 1962, which has been beaten in 1977.

1984-1985
Cold blasts occurred in January and February 1985. The 1985 Presidential Inauguration was the coldest on record. Many areas saw record lows set. Houston saw record lows on January 20-21, 1985. Near records occurred on February 1-2, 1985. Snow fell in Houston in January and February 1985. San Antonio saw record snowfall on January 11-13, 1985.

2000-2001
Eastern US had a cooler than normal winter. Southeast Texas had a cold winter.

I am not suggesting we will see a cold blast on par with February 1929, January 1962, January 1985, and February 1985. It is possible this winter could see more cold blasts.

I think this winter could be a cooler winter despite what the past analog winters being warm. I would not be surprised to hear of a major cold blast this coming winter or snow falls again.

Nate Is Edging Closer To The Gulf Coast

Nate is now a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph 144 km/h 78 knots wind. Further strengthening is possible with Nate. The question is how strong will Nate be by landfall.

Most forecast models have Nate intensifying into Category 2 with one intensifying into Category 3 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Nate becomes a Category 3 hurricane upon landfall. Category 4 or 5 is highly unlikely as it is moving quickly at 26 mph 42 km/h 22.6 knots. Here is a forecast model of where Nate will possibly make landfall. The heat map is from within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point.

There is a consensus that Nate could make landfall southwest of New Orleans to Pensacola area. It is unlikely Nate could deviate and hit Harvey ravaged Texas Coast. At this rate, Nate could make landfall later tonight or early tomorrow morning. Tropical storm force winds could start later this afternoon to evening.

Nate is not a large hurricane. Here is a wind radii map of Nate.

Hurricane force winds are only on the east side of Nate. Hurricane force winds are up to 69 miles 110.4 km 60 nautical miles across from northeast to southeast quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are are up to 230 miles 368 km 200 nautical miles across from northeast to southeast quadrant. However, since Nate is moving quickly, hurricane force winds maybe felt up to nearly three hours on the eastern side of Nate. Tropical storm force winds maybe felt up to nine hours.

The motion Nate is moving at, many areas could see 4 to 8 inches/10.2 to 20.3 centimeters of rain with isolated totals as high as 12 inches/30.5 centimeters. The forward motion should keep inland flooding risk low at this time.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Nate will make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast.
-Coastal flooding will be the main problem.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance and National Hurricane Center. Special thanks to all of them.

Tropical Depression 16 (Future Nate)

Tropical Depression 16 just formed. It could be Nate soon. It is October and it can be active. October has produce some very intense hurricanes like Great Hurricane Of 1780, 1924 Cuba Hurricane, Hattie, Opal, Mitch, Wilma, and Matthew. In fact some of the most intense tropical cyclones known have occurred in October like Tip, Patricia, Wilma, and 1999 Odisha Cyclone. They are the most intense tropical cyclones in their basin in the Northern Hemisphere! Here is the heat map forecast from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Tropical Depression 16. The heat map is from within 300 miles (480 kilometers) of a point.

Most of the forecast models suggest that Tropical Depression 16 may go over Central America and then go over the Caribbean. From there, it enters the Gulf of Mexico. This is what concerns me.

The Northwest Caribbean off the coast of Belize and Yucatan Peninsula is very warm. If conditions are right in the atmosphere, Tropical Depression 16 or future Nate could undergo rapid intensification. Warm water is not the only factor that allows hurricanes to rapidly intensify. If the upper air is favorable like more humidity and less wind shear combined with warm water, it could allow rapid intensification. This is the same area where Wilma became the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Here is the intensity forecast.

Only one forecast model has future Nate as a major hurricane. Forecasting strength and intensity is notoriously difficult. I would not be surprised if Tropical Depression 16 or future Nate becomes a major hurricane.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Nate will form as early as Thursday.
-Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico needs to watch.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance and Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential. Special thanks to all of them.

Irma Ravages Florida Part 2

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Hurricane Irma is near Tampa and it is a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph 160 km/h 87 knot winds, which is on land 85 mph 136 km/h 74 knots. Gusts are as high as 128 mph 205 km/h 111 knots. Hurricane force winds are up to 150 miles 240 km 130 nautical miles across from northeast to southeast quadrant. Tropical force winds are up to 690 miles 1,104 km 600 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. It is a large hurricane!

Tropical storm force winds are engulfing a large portion of Florida. It is even felt in Georgia and South Carolina! That is how large Irma is. Irma got large because it is over land, which disrupts the core. There is also a cold front. Those two make Irma larger as energy is spread out. The same reason why Ike got larger before making landfall on Texas in 2008.

Irma continues to get closer to Tampa. Here is the forecast model of where Irma will go. This is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Irma. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

Interesting to note there is not much of a consensus of where Irma will go. Interestingly, there appears to be some cluster where Irma will go in the next five days. Looks like Irma may end up over Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, and Illinois.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Tampa Bay Area will be ravaged by Irma.
-Storm surge and strong winds will be the main issue.
-Flooding from storm surge and heavy rain will be widespread.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance and National Hurricane Center, . Special thanks to all of them.

Irma Ravages Florida

Hurricane Irma made landfall made landfall on Cudjoe Key, Florida as a Category 4 hurricane with 929 millibars. It is moving north at 9 mph. Irma is a very large hurricane.

The Southeast Doppler mosaic has Irma engulfing a large portion of Florida. Many areas are getting heavy rain and strong winds. Hurricane force winds are up to 138 miles 221 km 120 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant and northeast to southeast quadrant. Tropical force winds are up to 437 miles 699 km 380 nautical miles across from northwest to northeast quadrant. Irma has gotten larger, which is a bad thing.

Hurricane force winds are felt in Southern Florida from Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Collier County. Many areas are reporting hurricane force winds. A crane had collapsed in Miami and storm surge is higher than forecasted. This is despite the fact that Irma is west of the area. This puts Miami over the dirty side. This leads to the next question, where does Irma go? Here is the forecast model of where Irma will go. This is the latest heat map from various forecast models and GFS ensemble track guidance for Irma. The GFS goes up to 10 days.

The first one I will show is for Florida. It has Irma going on the western wide of Florida. It could go over the Gulf of Mexico and west or east of Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is one of the high risk area for storm surge due to its geography. Storm surge ravaging Tampa Bay would be worse than Katrina ravaging New Orleans and Mississippi or Sandy ravaging New York City area. You did not misread it. Tampa Bay is the worst for storm surge. Irma could go near Tampa Bay and this would be very bad.

The second one is where Irma goes once inland. There is a hot spot over Tennessee and Kentucky. This suggest that Irma may end up over that region. From there, it could east or northeast. Heavy rain will be the main problem inland depending on how fast Irma moves. The slower Irma moves, more chance for heavy rain.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Irma is going to ravage Florida.
-Storm surge and high waves will be a problem on the coast.
-Tampa Bay Area could get the brunt of Irma.

The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance, National Hurricane Center, , and National Weather Service. Special thanks to all of them.