Furious Florence And Future Joyce?

The tropics are heating up and it is very concerning. Before I look at the tropics, let’s take a moment to reflect what happened on this day. Seventeen years ago today, America was attacked on September 11, 2001. Four airplanes hijacked by Al-Qaeda terrorists flew them into the World Trade Center and Pentagon. A fourth hijacked airplane crashed near Shanksville. Nearly 3,000 people were killed on that tragic day. Many more have become ill and some have died from toxic dust and smoke exposure from the World Trade Center and Pentagon.

Currently, there is Florence and Invest 95L, which maybe Joyce. Florence has 140 mph 122 knots 225 km/h winds with gusts as high as 175 mph 152 knots 282 km/h. It has central pressure of 946 millibars. Florence is a large hurricane and getting larger. It has hurricane force winds extending up to 60 miles 52 nautical miles 97 kilometers and tropical storm force winds extending up to 175 miles 152 nautical miles 282 kilometers. I would not be surprised if Florence is a large hurricane as it gets closer to the US. Hurricane that go further north, tend to get larger.

Here is the latest forecast track from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. It is a heat map using points within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius.

For Florence, it is looking more likely to hit either North Carolina or South Carolina. One forecast model has Florence going back to the Atlantic. It is looking more and more that Florence is going to hit North Carolina or South Carolina. The circular pattern over North Carolina is concerning because Florence may stall out. That means that heavy rain and flooding is more likely for North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia. The most concerning part is that near the center at night. There could core rain near the center of the low pressure. Core rains dump very heavy rain over a short time at night. Examples of core rain are 1921 Thrall Flood, Camille (1969), Claudette (1979), and Allison (2001).

For Invest 95L, it is looking to hit Texas sometimes this week. One forecast model has it going to Louisiana. It is rather early to tell as it has not developed yet. Regardless if 95L develops or not, heavy rain will be the main problem for Texas. Texas has been getting heavy rain lately, especially along the Upper Texas Coast. The next question is how strong will Florence and 95L be.

Most intensity forecast models keep Florence as a Category 4 hurricane. One has Florence as a Category 5 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Florence becomes a Category 5 hurricane. Most intensity forecast keep Florence as a major hurricane up to landfall.

As for Invest 95L, most forecast models have it intensifying into a tropical storm, especially within a couple of days from now. Since 95L is forecasted to go over the Gulf Of Mexico, I would not be surprised if it becomes a hurricane. Texas has seen tropical storms rapidly intensify into hurricanes like the Freeport Hurricane (1932), Humberto (2007), and Harvey (2017). I am not suggest 95L will become a hurricane, but just pointing out hurricane history is not too kind to Texas.

Rainfall is another concern. They are from EURO, GFS, Canadian, and German (ICON). The forecast models are from Weather.US. They are all seven day rainfall total forecast.

The EURO has 45 inches/114.3 centimeters of rain. The GFS has 62 inches/157.5 centimeters of rain! It is lower, but still very high! North Carolina has 15 to 25 inches/38.1 centimeters to 63.5 centimeters of rain, which is still heavy. The Canadian has 25 inches/63.5 centimeters of rain. Like the GFS, it is over the ocean. The ICON has 41 inches/104.4 centimeters of rain. The trend with these forecast models is heavier. The EURO have heaviest rain along the coast. The GFS has the heaviest rain offshore with heaviest over land in Coastal South Carolina and North Carolina. The Canadian has the heaviest rain over North Carolina and Virginia. The ICON has the heaviest rain along Coastal North Carolina and Virginia. The heavy rain is very concerning and can lead to massive flooding similar to Harvey.

Invest 95L rainfall forecast is all over the place. The EURO has over 9 inches/22.9 centimeters of rain northeast of Corpus Christi. The GFS has 5 inches/12.7 centimeters south of Houston. The Canadian has nearly 7 inches/17.8 centimeters of rain along the Central Coast of Texas. The ICON has over 11 inches/27.9 centimeters of rain south of Houston. The rainfall forecast is all over the place for 95L. When 95L gets closer, the forecast model should be more confident on rainfall amount and where it may fall.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Florence could intensify into a Category 5 hurricane.
-Florence is looking to affect North Carolina the most.
-Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain will be the main problem from Florence.
-Invest 95L is likely to become Joyce later this week.
-Texas could see more heavy rain and possibly flooding from Invest 95L or Joyce.

Advertisements

The Tropics Are Heating Up

Today is what is the peak date for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. No doubt today with Florence, Isaac, Helene, and Invest 95L, which maybe Joyce. 95L is an area of thunderstorms over the Caribbean south of Cuba. Tomorrow is September 11, which is the 17th anniversary of the devastating terrorist attacks in New York, Arlington, and Shanksville. It claimed 3,000 lives and reduced the World Trade Center to a smoldering and toxic rubble and left the Pentagon burning shooting out toxic smoke. I will be focusing on Florence as it is most likely to pose a threat to America. Invest 95L was declared earlier today, so there is not a lot of forecast models for it yet.

As of 11:00 PM AST from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Florence has 140 mph 122 knots 225 km/h winds with gusts as high as 175 mph 152 knots 282 km/h. The central pressure is 944 millibars. It is a medium sized hurricane with hurricane force winds extending up to 40 miles 35 nautical miles 64 kilometers and tropical storm force winds extending up to 150 miles 130 nautical miles 241 kilometers.

The forecast intensity shows Florence being a Category 4 hurricane.

I think Florence will be a Category 5 hurricane. Here is why from NOAA-Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential and Weather Maps-Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity.

The water where Florence is and probably where it will go is warm. It has plenty of warm and deep water to work with. The Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity (MPI) supports a Category 5 hurricane if conditions are near perfect. This is despite the fact that Florence is likely to run into UW-CIMSS-Wind Shear. The wind shear is not that strong and since Florence is well structured and organized, it should have little effect.

The biggest question is where does Florence go? That is on everyone’s mind right now. The forecast paths are from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance.

I have the latest forecast track and ensemble from a previous forecast cycle. The consensus on both forecast models including the ensembles using the heat map within 300 mile/480 kilometers radius from the point show that North Carolina is most likely to have Florence making landfall later this week. What is most concerning is once it is over land, Florence could slow down and stall out. This leads to heavy rain and dangerous flooding. Hurricane Harvey lingered over Texas dumping heavy rain over a large area leading to massive flooding. Here are rainfall forecast models from Weather.US. They are EURO, GFS, Canadian, and German (ICON). They are all seven day rainfall total forecast.

The forecast models all agree that heavy rain will fall over North Carolina. Two have heavy rain over Virginia. The EURO has 19 inches/48.3 centimeters of rain. The GFS has (drum rolls please) 77 inches/195.6 centimeters of rain! Thankfully, that is over the ocean. North Carolina has 15 to 20 inches/38.1 centimeters to 50.8 centimeters of rain, which is still heavy. The Canadian has 39 inches/99 centimeters of rain. Like the GFS, it is over the ocean. The ICON has 29 inches/74 centimeters of rain. The 77 inches of rainfall forecast from GFS is assuming that Florence is stalled out over the ocean. If Florence was to stall out over land and 77 inches of rain did fall, it would be heavier than Harvey. I have never seen such high rainfall forecasts. The last time I saw something that high high was from Harvey. Some forecast models I saw had up to 70 inches/177.8 centimeters of rain over Texas!

The rainfall forecast does include Texas. They are all over the place in terms of rainfall forecast for the next 7 days. The EURO has 19 inches of rain west of Corpus Christi. The GFS has 5 inches/12.7 centimeters. The Canadian has 12 inches/30.5 centimeters of rain over Houston area. The ICON has 15 inches of rain northeast of Corpus Christi. This suggests at this point, the heaviest rain will be in South Texas depending on how organized Invest 95L. If it is not as organized, the heaviest rain would be east of the center and Southeast Texas would get the heaviest rain from 95L.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Florence could intensify into a Category 5 hurricane.
-Florence is looking to affect North Carolina the most.
-Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rain will be the main problem from Florence.
-Deadly flooding will probably be main headline if Florence stalls out.
-Regardless if Invest 95L is Joyce or not, Texas could see more heavy rain this week to early next week.

Flash Gordon

Tropical Gordon has formed yesterday near Florida. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently has Gordon as a tropical storm with 60 mph 52 knots 97 km/h winds. It is a rather small tropical storm. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 60 miles 52 nautical miles 97 kilometers.

The question is where does Gordon go and how strong will it be. Here is a heat map forecast based on forecast within 300 miles. The forecast points are from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance.

Most of the forecast models have Gordon making landfall somewhere between Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. There is a remote chance that Texas could get hit by Gordon. Looks like Gordon could make landfall as early as tomorrow. The intensity forecast models are mixed.

Most keep Gordon as a tropical storm due to its fast motion. A couple have Gordon as a Category 1 hurricane. Due to its small size and warm water, I would not be surprised if Gordon becomes a Category 2 or even 3 hurricane before landfall. Intensity forecast models are not reliable.

The Gulf Of Mexico water is on the warm side from NOAA/AOML-Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential. If conditions are right, Gordon could rapidly intensify as it travels over the Loop Current of the Gulf Of Mexico. Gordon is likely to be a small hurricane before landfall.

The NHC issues probability of where hurricane force winds may occur.

The highest probability for hurricane force winds are off the coast. If Gordon makes landfall as a hurricane, the coastal areas would most likely feel hurricane force winds. Inland areas would have tropical storm force winds with occasional hurricane force gust.

Here is my take.
-Gordon will likely become a hurricane by tomorrow.
-Gordon is most likely to make landfall along the Central Gulf Coast.
-Strong winds and heavy rain will be the main problem.

For anyone in the warning areas, please take heed the warnings. Storm surge and flooding are not something to mess with.

Lane’s Wrath

Hurricane Lane is a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph 109 knots 201 km/h winds. It has gusts as high as 150 mph 130 knots 241 km/h. The latest satellite image of Lane shows the hurricane is less intense as it is less organized than last night. It suggests that Lane is weakening, but that does not reduce the danger of Lane. Hawaii would have to deal with strong winds, high waves, storm surge, and heavy rain.

Most forecast models have Lane weakening to a Category 1 hurricane to tropical storm as it gets closer to Hawaii this weekend. As mentioned previously, satellite presentation does suggest Lane is weakening. The next question is is it possible that Lane could make landfall?

The heat map forecast from various forecast models from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance with radius of 300 miles. It is possible that Lane could make landfall somewhere on Hawaii. It could be Oahu, Moloka’i, and Lana’i. That would be very bad it Lane made landfall on Oahu, which is the most populated Hawaiian island. It looks to be lingering for the next several days as it is a slow moving hurricane. That would be a problem as slow moving tropical cyclones dump heavy rain. Case in point, Harvey. One huge concern is flooding from Lane, regardless of intensity.

The rainfall forecast models are from GFS, Canadian, EURO, and ICON. They are all 7 day rainfall total forecast from Weather.US.

The rainfall amount forecast is all over the place. Let alone where the heavy rain falls. Most have 10 to 20 inches/25.4 to 50.8 centimeters of rain falling. ICON has the lowest with 13 inches/33 centimeters of rain, while EURO has nearly 36 inches/91.4 centimeters of rain, which is over Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. The mountainous terrain is conducive to deadly mudslide and flooding. Also, mountainous areas have heavier rain. I would be more concerned about heavy rain and flooding from Lane than strong winds. Doppler radar out of NWS Hawaii shows heavy rain is already falling in parts of Hawaii as of 5:15 PM Hawaiian Time.

Doppler radar estimate out of Kohala show up to 15 inches/38.1 centimeters or higher has fallen already from Lane. There is no doubt that 36 inches/91.4 centimeters is likely to fall in Hawaii. I would not be surprised if some areas see up to 50 inches/127 centimeters of rain once it is all over. That is very concerning. The live camera from Waikiki Beach shows a calm beach despite Lane coming ever so closer. Come tomorrow and Saturday, it will be very different.

Here is my take.
-Oahu, Maui, and Kauai could be impacted by Lane as early as Friday.
-Strong winds, heavy rain, high waves, and storm surge will be a major problem.
-Flooding, not strong winds, will be the main problem.

Powerful Lane

Hurricane Lane was a powerful Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph 140 knots 257 km/h wind. It still remains a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph 125 knots 233 km/h wind. It is 260 miles 226 nautical miles 418 km south of Kailua. The biggest question is where will Lane go.

Some of the forecast models have Lane going over Oahu, Moloka’i, and Lana’i. That could be really bad, especially for Oahu where Honolulu is located. They would be pelted by strong winds, heavy rain, high waves, and storm surge. If Lane was to make landfall as a hurricane on Hawaii, it would be the first for this century. The last time a hurricane made landfall on Hawaii was Hurricane Iniki in 1992. Iniki made landfall on Kauaʻi on September 11, 1992. It is the most intense hurricane recorded to make landfall on Hawaii as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph 125 knots 233 km/h wind and central pressure of 938 millibars. It produced gust as high as 227 mph 197 knots 365 km/h! 1992 had three major hurricanes make landfall on American states and territories. First was Andrew that struck on August 24, 1992 on South Florida, Super Typhoom Omar on Guam on August 28, 1992, and Iniki on September 11, 1992 on Hawaii.

The next question is how strong will Lane be in the next couple of days.

Most intensity forecast models have Lane weakening to a Category 1 hurricane to tropical storm by the time it gets closer to Hawaii. Intensity forecast models are not reliable. I would not be surprised if Lane is still major hurricane by the time it is closer to Hawaii. Here is the most recent NWS Honolulu Doppler radar as of 5:26 PM Hawaii Standard Time.

Doppler radar is picking up the outer bands of Hurricane Lane. It is getting ever so closer to Hawaii. Here is a live camera from Waikiki Beach. It looks so peaceful and serene, yet a powerful hurricane is lurking and getting ever so closer to Hawaii. I can imagine in the next couple of days, it will look very different.

Here is my take.
-Lane is likely to be a hurricane as it approaches Hawaii, possibly a major hurricane.
-Oahu, Maui, and Kauai could be impacted by Lane.
-Strong winds, heavy rain, high waves, and storm surge will be a major problem.

The forecast model came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. Special thanks to all of them.

Volcano And Hurricane Lane

Powerful Hurricane Lane has 155 mph 135 knots 249 km/h with gusts approaching 190 mph 165 knots 306 km/h. It is about 400 miles 348 nautical miles 640 km south of Hawaii. This is from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. I would not be surprised if Lane is already a Category 5 hurricane. The UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based-Dvorak Technique, which uses satellite to determine intensity suggests that Lane is a Category 5 hurricane with at least 160 mph 140 knots 257 km/h. I usually tend to weigh Dvorak Technique less because the intensity is not measured directly and is based on satellite presentation. It also does not handle pinhole eyes well. More about Dvorak Technique. Regardless, I think Lane is a Category 5 hurricane already.

The biggest question is where does Lane go? The most recent forecast model have Lane turning northward towards Hawaii.

Some of the forecast models have Lane going over the Big Island of Hawaii and some have it going over Oahu, where Honolulu is located. The Big Island has had to deal with volcanic eruption from Kīlauea. I would not be surprised if Lane does make landfall on the Big Island. From there, Lane is forecasted to head towards Maui, Oahu, and Kauai. The next question is how strong will Lane be by the time it gets close to Hawaii?

Lane is forecasted to be near the Big Island within a couple of days. The intensity forecast model has Lane as a Category 2 to 3 hurricane. That means the Big Island will have to deal with strong winds and heavy rain. This is on top of large waves and storm surge. Once it approaches the Big Island, Lane would weaken due to increased wind shear and interaction with Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. Once Lane goes passed the Big Island and heads towards Oahu, the forecast models have Lane as a Category 1 or tropical storm strength. Intensity forecasting has a long way to go. Lane could still be a major hurricane by the time it heads towards Maui or Oahu.

Another concern is rainfall. Mountainous terrains tend to have higher rainfall totals, especially on the windward side. Waipa in the island of Kauai had nearly 50 inches/127 centimeters of rainfall on April 14-15, 2018. It happened in a 24 hour period! That eclipses Tropical Storm Claudette that dumped 43 inches/109 centimeters of rain near Alvin on July 25-26, 1979. Hurricane Harvey dumped that amount over a five day period. It was also over a more populated area with large area of heavy rain.

The rainfall forecast models are from GFS, Canadian, EURO, and ICON. They are all 7 day rainfall total forecast.

The rainfall amount forecast is all over the place. Most have the Big Island and Kauai getting the heaviest rain from Lane. The amounts forecasted is generally 10 to 15 inches/25.4 to 381. centimeters of rain. The GFS has the highest with over 38 inches/96.5 centimeters of rain. It falls around Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. Regardless of where the rain falls, flooding and mudslides will be the main problem. They can be dangerous and deadly!

Here is my take.
-Lane is likely a Category 5 hurricane.
-Big Island Of Hawaii will impact from Lane in a couple of days.
-Oahu, Maui, and Kauai could be impacted by Lane.

The forecast models came from Weather.US and NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. Special thanks to all of them.

First Major Hurricane Of 2018?

Hurricane Chris is now a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph 169 km/h 90 knots winds. It looks quite impressive on satellite from the National Hurricane Center. It looks almost like a major hurricane to me. Some of the intensity forecast models have Chris as the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Season.

Quite frankly, I would not be surprised if Chris becomes a Category 3 hurricane. It could very well be Category 3 by tomorrow morning. A major hurricane in July is rare, but not unheard of. The last time there was a major hurricane in July was Bertha in 2008. We also have two hurricanes so far, Beryl and Chris. The last time we had two hurricanes in July was 2005, which were Dennis and Emily. Emily is the earliest know Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. Both 2005 and 2008 were devastating seasons. Both affected Texas in the form of Rita in 2005 and Dolly and Ike in 2008.

The next question is where does Chris go?

The consensus is that Chris is moving away from the US coast and moving rapidly due to a cool front. Rough seas will be the main problem for the Eastern Seaboard. Some of the forecast models have it making landfall on Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, Canada as an extratropical storm. That will be a major problem for them. Some have Chris making landfall on Iceland, United Kingdom, and Norway.