Lane’s Wrath

Hurricane Lane is a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph 109 knots 201 km/h winds. It has gusts as high as 150 mph 130 knots 241 km/h. The latest satellite image of Lane shows the hurricane is less intense as it is less organized than last night. It suggests that Lane is weakening, but that does not reduce the danger of Lane. Hawaii would have to deal with strong winds, high waves, storm surge, and heavy rain.

Most forecast models have Lane weakening to a Category 1 hurricane to tropical storm as it gets closer to Hawaii this weekend. As mentioned previously, satellite presentation does suggest Lane is weakening. The next question is is it possible that Lane could make landfall?

The heat map forecast from various forecast models from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance with radius of 300 miles. It is possible that Lane could make landfall somewhere on Hawaii. It could be Oahu, Moloka’i, and Lana’i. That would be very bad it Lane made landfall on Oahu, which is the most populated Hawaiian island. It looks to be lingering for the next several days as it is a slow moving hurricane. That would be a problem as slow moving tropical cyclones dump heavy rain. Case in point, Harvey. One huge concern is flooding from Lane, regardless of intensity.

The rainfall forecast models are from GFS, Canadian, EURO, and ICON. They are all 7 day rainfall total forecast from Weather.US.

The rainfall amount forecast is all over the place. Let alone where the heavy rain falls. Most have 10 to 20 inches/25.4 to 50.8 centimeters of rain falling. ICON has the lowest with 13 inches/33 centimeters of rain, while EURO has nearly 36 inches/91.4 centimeters of rain, which is over Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. The mountainous terrain is conducive to deadly mudslide and flooding. Also, mountainous areas have heavier rain. I would be more concerned about heavy rain and flooding from Lane than strong winds. Doppler radar out of NWS Hawaii shows heavy rain is already falling in parts of Hawaii as of 5:15 PM Hawaiian Time.

Doppler radar estimate out of Kohala show up to 15 inches/38.1 centimeters or higher has fallen already from Lane. There is no doubt that 36 inches/91.4 centimeters is likely to fall in Hawaii. I would not be surprised if some areas see up to 50 inches/127 centimeters of rain once it is all over. That is very concerning. The live camera from Waikiki Beach shows a calm beach despite Lane coming ever so closer. Come tomorrow and Saturday, it will be very different.

Here is my take.
-Oahu, Maui, and Kauai could be impacted by Lane as early as Friday.
-Strong winds, heavy rain, high waves, and storm surge will be a major problem.
-Flooding, not strong winds, will be the main problem.


More Rain Tonight?

The tropical wave is now over Texas. It is a disorganized system, so it is hard to predict where the rain will be tonight. Let’s look at High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), Regional Model (RGEM), and Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMM). They are at 0900Z or 4:00 AM CDT.

The HRRR has heavy rain mostly west and southwest of Houston. The NAM has heavy rain over Matagorda Bay and east of Houston. The RGEM has an axis of heavy rain from Corpus Christi area to East Texas. The WRF-ARW has the heavy rain over Matagorda Bay. The WRF-NMM has heavy rain south of San Antonio. This shows that forecasting where heavy rain will fall tonight is all over the place with this tropical wave.

Looking at the most recent Doppler radar mosaic, there is heavy rain over East Texas and Southwest Louisiana. It is not really active right now.

However, with tropical moisture, thunderstorms tend to form at night, especially near the center of the low pressure system. They are called core rains and they can dump heavy rain in a short time. Harvey, Allison, Claudette, and Thrall 1921 Flood were core rain events as flooding rain fell at night. This system is disorganized, so it will be hard to tell where it will exactly form. Some forecast models want the heavy rain over Matagorda Bay, while some have it over Southeast Texas.

Many are wondering what is the forecasted rain amount. The rainfall forecast models are from GFS, Canadian, EURO, ICON, and Weather Prediction Center (WPC). They are all 7 day rainfall total forecast.

The GFS has 4 inches of rain over Galveston Bay. The area of heaviest rain is east of Houston.

The Canadian has nearly 11 inches of rain just north of Houston. The largest area of heavy rain is north of Houston.

The EURO has backed down on nearly 30 inches of rain. It has nearly 15 inches of rain south of San Antonio. There is a large area of heavy rain southwest of Houston.

The ICON has over 13 inches of rain near Aransas Pass. There is an area of 8 inches of rain west of Houston. Most of the heavy rain is over the Gulf Of Mexico.

The WPC has 10 inches of rain over an Matagorda Bay and Victoria. Houston area has 5 to 7 inches of rain.

The rainfall forecast is all over the place on where it will fall and even the amount. This is a very frustrating forecast. Regardless of forecast models, all forecast heavy rain will fall somewhere.

Here is what I think will happen.
-Someone will see heavy rain tonight.
-Not ruling out Houston area getting heavy rain tonight.
-Rainfall amounts could range from 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated totals approaching and exceeding 15 inches.

The forecast models came from Weather.US, Tropical Tidbits, National Hurricane Center, and National Weather Service. Special thanks to all of them.

Latest On Hurricane Matthew As Of 11:00 AM EDT October 8, 2016

Hurricane Matthew made landfall on McClellanville, South Carolina with 75 mph winds and central pressure of 967 millibars. The highest wind on land is 64 mph with gusts of 96 mph. Many areas are seeing 40 to 60 mph winds with gusts of 70 to 90 mph.


Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles, while tropical storm force extend up to 185 miles. Matthew is weakening and could be a tropical storm later today. Intensity forecast have Matthew weakening in the next few days.


Doppler radar out of Wilmington, shows that Matthew is inland. Being close to land has weakened Matthew from a major hurricane.


Despite it weakening, Matthew is dumping flooding rain. Flooding will be the major problem for the Southeast, especially for South Carolina and North Carolina. Doppler radar estimate has much as 15 inches of rain near the South Carolina and Georgia border. Areas where South Carolina and North Carolina meet, 6 to 8 inches of rain has fallen so far. More rain is expected to fall in South Carolina and North Carolina.



South Carolina could see an additional 4 to 6 inches of rain, which means the total could be 10 to 15 inches of rain. North Carolina could see ab additional 10 inches of rain. North Carolina could see as much as 10 to 15 inches of rain. Some areas could see as much 20 inches of rain.


On top of the heavy rain, there is dangerous storm surge. Many areas could see 5 to 7 feet storm surge with isolated areas seeing 10 feet storm surge. Storm surge is more related to size of storm, shallowness of water, and geography. A large Category 1 or 2 hurricane over large area of shallow water with funnel shape area will produce higher storm surge than a small Category 4 or 5 hurricane with deeper waters off the coast. Ike and Sandy produced high storm surge despite being under Category 3 because of their large size and geography of affected areas. Storm surge is the biggest killer in hurricanes. The storm surge will make flooding worse as flood waters cannot drain quickly enough.


Forecast models are all over where Matthew goes. Most have it going eastwards into the Atlantic. Where it goes becomes more complicated. Some have Matthew looping southward towards the Bahamas and even entering the Gulf of Mexico. Some models have it going near Canada. Another fly in the ointment is Tropical Storm Nicole. I do not think it will have much influences due to the small size of the storm.


Hurricane Matthew is going to be a huge problem for South Carolina and North Carolina. The southern part of Haiti is largely flattened by Matthew. 90 percent of some areas are leveled. The death toll is certainly going to rise. One district, Grand-Anse, at least 470 people have died. I suspect the death toll will be in the thousands. This could be Haiti’s worst hurricane since Hurricane Jeanne in 2004. Jeanne claimed 3,006 people in Haiti. Most of the death was from deadly flooding from heavy rain in the amount of 12 to 15 inches. Most of the death occurred in Gonaïves. Gonaïves had 2,826 of its residence die. Jeanne did not even make landfall as it was a tropical storm.

Latest On Hurricane Matthew As Of 11:00 PM EDT October 7, 2016

Hurricane Matthew has ravaged the Florida coast despite staying offshore and not making landfall. Now, it has its sight on South Carolina. Even though Matthew is a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds and central pressure of 948 millibars. It is still a dangerous hurricane. Not a forced to be reckon with.


Even though Florida did not get hit by the “dirty” side of the hurricane, it did a number on the state in form of storm surge and flooding. Flooding and storm surge are very dangerous. More people die in them than from high winds. More reason to evacuate. Looking at Doppler radar, looks like South Carolina and North Carolina could be in a rough ride from the “dirty” side of Matthew.


The heat map forecast of where Hurricane Matthew goes shows a possible landfall on South Carolina and North Carolina. Another possibility, it will stay offshore and still ravage South Carolina and North Carolina, like it did to Florida. This time, they are on the “dirty” side. The “dirty” side have the strongest winds and heaviest rain. Where Matthew goes is anyone’s guess at this point. It may go south and weaken into a tropical storm. Interesting to note another hot spot has it looping southward towards the Bahamas. The forecast intensity has a weakening trend.


Most forecast models have Matthew weakening as it ravages the Carolinas. By tomorrow night, it could be a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. Regardless, it will be a dangerous event for the Carolinas because of heavy rain and flooding. Doppler radar estimates show 4 to 6 inches of rain has fallen over Savannah and Hilton Head. The heaviest rain looks to be over South Carolina and North Carolina.


As Matthew gets closer, the winds will get stronger with heavier rains. Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina could experience winds of 60 to 90 mph with gusts of 90 to 135 mph. Rainfall totals for South Carolina and North Carolina could be in the neighbor of 10 to 15 inches of rain. Some areas could see as much as 20 inches of rain once it is all over.


On top of heavy rain, South Carolina and North Carolina will have to deal with deadly storm surge. Many areas could see 6 to 9 feet storm surge. Some areas could see storm surge as high as 12 feet. The storm surge is mostly a problem in Georgia and South Carolina. The evacuation was the right call. As they say, hide from wind run from water. Storm surge is the reason why people evacuate.


It is going to be a rough Friday night to Saturday for Carolinas. Hopefully everyone who needed to evacuate, evacuated. Storm surge from hurricane is not a force to reckon with.

In Haiti, 877 lives have been lost. The death toll in Haiti is staggering from Hurricane Matthew. The death toll is no doubt going to climb with potential epidemic of water borne diseases like cholera. There have been 17 reported cases of cholera in Haiti, which is the tip of the iceberg. This is could be Haiti’s deadliest disaster since the January 12, 2010 Earthquake, which claimed 316,000 lives.

Latest On Hurricane Matthew As Of 11:00 PM EDT October 6, 2016

Hurricane Matthew is getting ever so closer to Florida. It has 130 mph winds and central pressure of 939 millibars as of 11:00 PM EDT. Here is the most recent Doppler radar image from Melbourne, Florida.


The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is down. Not good. Here is the heat map forecast where Hurricane Matthew could go.


The NHC is forecasting that Hurricane Matthew is not going to make landfall.


However, I think Matthew could make landfall on Florida based on the heat map. Coastal Georgia and South Carolina is also looking get hit by Hurricane Matthew. The worst would be after midnight. Here is the intensity forecast.


I think, Hurricane Matthew is intensifying despite forest model showing some weakening before it gets close to Florida. I would not be surprised if it intensifies further later tonight.

Regardless of Hurricane Matthew making landfall or not, it will have a huge impact. Even if Matthew did not make landfall, the eyewall affecting Florida would be considered an eyewall landfall. I consider eyewall landfall as equal to an actual landfall. Why you ask? Many Caribbean islands get hard hit by hurricanes, while the eye of the hurricane is offshore, while the eyewall is hammering them.