Invest 91L is over the Gulf of Mexico. Currently on satellite from CIMSS-Tropical Cyclones, it does not look too impressive.
Of course with tropical lows, they tend to fire up at night as they are warmer than the surrounding area. I would not be surprised to see a lot of thunderstorms come morning. As the time passes, where does Invest 91L go?
Most forecast models have it going towards South Texas or Mexico. There is a chance that it could go over Southeast Texas. If it goes into Mexico or South Texas, there is better chance for rain since the northeast side is the wettest as it is the “dirty” side of the tropical low. The intensity forecast models are split.
Some have Invest 91L as a tropical wave. Some have it intensifying into a tropical depression. Some have it becoming a tropical storm. If it becomes a tropical storm, it would be Beryl. Like I say, intensity forecast is not really reliable. At this point, I would be more concerned with the rain than some tropical storm developing.
Various forecast models have different rain amounts, which are from GFS, Canadian, EURO, and Weather Prediction Center (WPC). They are from Weather.US and Weather Prediction Center (WPC)-Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF). These are 7 day rainfall totals.
The GFS has the heaviest rain over Houston area. It forecasts up to 8 inches of rain. A large area of Southeast Texas has 3 to 6 inches of rain.
The Canadian forecasts rain amounts of up to 6 inches over Austin area and around Halletsville.
The EURO forcasts up to 20 inches of rain southeast of San Antonio. There is 10 inches south of Houston. The EURO is the wettest of the forecast models.
The WPC has up to 5 inches of rain over Southeast Texas. It is the driest of the forecast models.
All the forecast models have rain for Texas. The only difference is the amount. Some are very bullish, while others are not. The plus side is that it will put a dent on the drought in Texas.
Most areas in Texas are in a drought. The rains can alleviate the drought, which is a good thing. This also increases the risk for flooding, which is not good almost a year after Harvey ravaged Texas with epic rainfall.
I think Invest 91L will be more of a rain event this weekend. Tropical development is not likely, but cannot be ruled out. Regardless, Invest 91L needs to be watched as it could be more of a rain event that may cause flooding in some areas.
The forecast models came from NCAR-Tropical Cyclone Guidance. The GIS drought map is from United States Drought Monitor.