Latest On Typhoon Haima As Of 10:00 PM CST October 17, 2016

Typhoon Haima is ramping up in the West Pacific. It is a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds and central pressure of 933 millibars. It is based on satellite estimates called Dvorak technique. I would take that with a grain of salt because it not measured directly. I suspect it is stronger, possibly around 150 mph with central pressure of 925 millibars. The ambient pressure in Typhoon Basin is lower, which is one reason why it is a very active basin. Hurricane force winds extend up to 45 miles, while tropical storm force winds extend up to 140 miles. Typhoons are generally larger than other tropical cyclones in the basin, including the Atlantic. The largest tropical cyclone is Super Typhoon Tip of 1979. Tip had tropical storm force winds extend up to 675 miles! Haima is much smaller than Tip thankfully.

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Where it goes has me concerned. This heat map forecast of where Haima will go has it focused on the Northern Philippines. It is moving at 14 mph to the west northwest. It is also getting more stronger as it goes over warmer waters off the Philippine coasts.

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The intensity forecast model mostly keep it as a Category 4. A couple have it as a Category 5 Super Typhoon. I think Haima will rapidly intensify into a Category 5 Super Typhoon. It will probably intensify to 180 mph with central pressure of 895 millibars before it comes close to the Philippines in two days. It is going to be severe typhoon for the Philippines.

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They could experience winds of 80 to 140 mph winds with gusts of 120 to 210 mph! They could see rain amounts of 8 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals of 40 inches, especially in the mountainous areas. Deadly flooding and mudslides would be a major problem on top of the strong winds. The forecast shows Haima getting larger as it approaches the Philippines. It has hurricane force winds extending up to 90 miles and tropical storm force winds extending up to 235 miles. That is a large typhoon right there. That would be considered large in the Atlantic. Philippines better prepare for Haima. It is going to be very nasty for them.

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