We are in mid September and the tropics are heating up. There are three areas of interest in the tropics; Invest 93L, 94L, and 95L.
Invest 94L is the closest to Texas. 94L has a low chance of development. It is close to land and has to contend with wind shear. Here is the 5 day forecast of where 94L will go.
Most have it going to Mexico. One has it going into Texas, which is an outlier. Another has it going south into the Yucatan Peninsula. I do not think 94L will become tropical. Even the intensity forecast models do not support it.
Most forecast models have 94L below tropical depression. A couple of models have it as a tropical storm in the next two days. Two models have 94L as a tropical storm in five days. Forecasting intensity has a long way to go.
Verdict: Invest 94L will not develop into something tropical.
Now, let’s go to Invest 93L. I think this one could develop in the next couple of days if conditions are right. It has to deal with wind shear and dry Saharan air, which has been persistent due to El Nino. The forecast models are hinting it could become a named storm within 24 hours. It would be Ida.
I am not too sure if 93L will develop. If so, it will probably develop into a tropical storm at most.
Most forecast models keep 93L out to sea. When a storm intensifies into in the middle of the Atlantic, they tend to be more influenced by upper air patterns. This holds true with hurricanes.
Verdict: Invest 93L could develop, but will not hold my breath for it.
Finally, let’s look at Invest 95L. It just came off of West Africa. 95L has a better chance of developing in the next five days. One thing about Invest 93L, it has to also deal with dry air. That could favor 95L as it can intensify. I think 95L could become Ida or Joaquin, which ever develops first.
Some of the forecast models have 95L as a hurricane in the next two to three days. It peaks as a Category 2 hurricane. If Ida was to develop, I would not be surprised if 95L became a Category 3 hurricane. Now, where does it go?
Invest 95L has a more west northwest direction. Even five days later, it is still in the middle of the Atlantic. Could it pose a threat to land? Depending how fast it develops. The slower it develops, the better chance that it could pose a threat to land.
Verdict: Invest 95L is the one to watch this week.
We are in the peak month of hurricane season. So, the tropics are heating up.