Weather In Review And Forecast For August 2, 2015

This week has been hot for Texas. Nor rain in sight either. Strange we had lots of rain in Spring to June. It is like if someone turned off the faucet. Typical of a developing strong El Nino summer.

20150803_July_ElNino_PrecipitationRate_NorthAmerica

Not surprised by it one bit. Texas is dry, while Florida is wet. In fact, it has been quite wet in Florda.

20150803_7Day_Rainfall_Total

The past 7 days has been wet in Florida, especially in the northwestern part of the state. They have seen over 15 inches of rain! There have been flooding reported in the Tampa area.

So, how will this week to next week be like? In lieu of forecast models, I will use analog forecast models courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center. 6 to 10 days forecast comes first.

20150803_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

8/17/1976-Tropical Storm Dottie makes landfall on South Florida and South Carolina. Many areas recorded 4 to 8 inches of rain with 10.68 inches in Fort Lauderdale. Four people lost their life from the storm. Hurricane Belle made landfall on Long Island, New York as a Category 1 hurricane on August 10. The storm did $100 million and claimed 12 lives.
8/25/1961-Southeast Texas closes August 1961 with rain everyday from summer thunderstorms. Hurricane Carla makes landfall near Port O’Connor on September 11th as a large Category 3/4 hurricane. Gusts as high as 175 mph are recorded with 19 inches of rain. 43 people lose their life from massive storm surge of 22 feet.
8/3/1991 & 8/9/1991-Hurricane Bob forms on August 16th ans skirts Outer Banks of North Carolina and becomes a Category 3 hurricane. Bob brushes Long Island and makes landfall near Newport, Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Than it makes a second landfall near Rockport, Maine, as a Tropical Storm. Bob does $1.5 billion in damages and claims 17 lives throughout the East Coast.
8/21/1981-Tropical Depression Eight makes landfall and dumps heavy rain on Texas and Oklahoma. Up to 21 inches of rain fell in 24 hours in Pine Springs, Texas. 5 people died from flooding.
8/7/1995 & 8/8/1991-Hurricane Erin first affects the Bahamas as a Tropical Storm and Category 1 hurricane. Than makes landfall on Vero Beach, Florida as a Category 1 hurricane. It enters the Gulf of Mexico as a Tropical Storm and intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane before it hits Fort Walton, Florida. Erin does $700 million in damages and claims 13 lives.

Many of those analog dates I mentioned had a tropical system make landfall on America. Does this mean it will happen in the next 6 to 10 days? No. We are entering the more active phase of the season. If something tropical that develops could make landfall on America. The forecast also suggests rain could return for Texas by next week.

Now, let’s look at the 8 to 14 day analog forecast.

20150803_8To14Day_AnalogForecast

8/23/2005 & 8/28/2005-Hurricane Katrina forms over Bahamas on August 23rd. Than makes landfall on South Florida on August 25th as a Category 1 hurricane. It enters the Gulf of Mexico as a Tropical Storm. From there, it undergoes rapid intensification as it gets stronger. On August 28th, Katrina is a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds and central pressure of 902 millibars and heading towards New Orleans. Katrina makes landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on South Louisiana and Mississippi. The hurricane produces massive storm surge of over 30 feet! The same storm surge floods New Orleans and surrounding area. Many thousands are evacuated before and after the hurricane. The hurricane claims 1,836 lives and does $125 billion in damages, the most costliest natural disaster in America to date.
8/7/1998-Tropical Storm Charley forms on August 21st and makes landfall on near Corpus Christi, Texas on August 23rd as a weak tropical storm after intensifying as a strong tropical storm. Del Rio sees heavy rain from what was Charley on August 24th. Over 17 inches of rain fell in Del Rio, setting an all time record.
7/31/1991 & 8/8/1991-Hurricane Bob forms on August 16th ans skirts Outer Banks of North Carolina and becomes a Category 3 hurricane. Bob brushes Long Island and makes landfall near Newport, Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Than it makes a second landfall near Rockport, Maine, as a Tropical Storm. Bob does $1.5 billion in damages and claims 17 lives throughout the East Coast.
8/12/1953-Hurricane Barbara makes landfall on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on August 13th as a Category 2 hurricane. Many areas see 5 to 10 inches of rain from Barbara with winds of 50 to 80 mph. Barbara claims 9 lives.

Like the 6 to 10 day analog forecast, something tropical happens. Two dates are infamous and they are in 2005. It is Hurricane Katrina, which happened ten years ago this month. Wow, I remember that nasty storm like yesterday. It was all over the news. It was the second disaster to claim over thousands of lives in America. The other being 9/11, which claimed 3,000 lives.

Even though we are in El Nino, do not let your guards down. It only takes one, like in the case with Hurricane Bob in 1991. That occurred with a developing El Nino, which became a strong Modoki El Nino.

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