Weather In Review And Forecast For July 19, 2015

20150713_Pluto

Just last week, New Horizons was at its closest approach to Pluto, which is arguably a planet. This heat wave we are in makes me want to be on Pluto. It is very cold at -380.47°F! Today is also the anniversary of the Apollo 11 Moon landing.

Apollo11NeilArmstrong

Onto the weather. It has been rather hot and dry in Texas and the South, thanks to upper level ridging.

20150720_500mb_GeopotentialHeightAnomaly_Lower48

20150720_500mb_GeopotentialHeightMean_Lower48

It is quite typical in July to see the upper level ridging over Texas.

20150720_500mb_GeopotentialHeightClimatology_Lower48

So, what will the rest of July to August be like? We can use analogs to make that determination. Let’s start with 6 to 10 days.

20150720_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

8/3/1981-August is mostly dry and hot in Southeast Texas. However, by the end of August, Tropical Depression Eight makes landfall and dumps heavy rain on Texas and Oklahoma. Up to 21 inches of rain fell in 24 hours in Pine Springs, Texas. 5 people died from flooding.
8/1/1975-Heavy rain falls on 8/1 in Southeast Texas. Rainfall totals between 8/1 to 8/4 are Bush Intercontinental: 5.06″; Hobby: 4.57″; Galveston: 3.14″. Bush sets daily rainfall record total on 8/1 (2.10″) and 8/4 (2.94″), while Hobby (4.16″) and Galveston (2.97″) set daily record on 8/4.
8/6/1996-Southeast Texas has a wet August following a dry spell. Some of the rain is from Hurricane Dolly that made landfall between Tuxpan and Tampico, Mexico on 8/23.
8/12/1955-Hurricane Connie makes landfall on Fort Macon State Park, North Carolina as a Category 3 hurricane on 8/12. Connie moves inland into the Eastern US. The remnants dump heavy rain and leads to widespread flooding. The highest is 13.24″ at Fort Schuyler, New York. Connie claims 74 lives. Five days later, Hurricane Diane, makes landfall as a tropical storm near Wilmington, North Carolina. Diane moves inland and dumps more heavy rain on the Eastern US. Diane causes massive flooding in the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Many areas see 10 to 15 inches of rain including 19.75″ in Westfield, Massachusetts. At least 184 people died from Diane.
7/29/1993-July 1993 gives way to a hot and dry August 1993.
8/2/1955-Tropical Storm Brenda makes landfall east of New Orleans on 8/1 as tropical storm. Up to 4 inches of rain fell with two fatalities in Mobile, Alabama.

Interesting to note that tropical activity is in the picture. One of the analog dates is a devastating one for the Eastern Seaboard in 1955, Connie and Diane. They are more known for their flooding rains and destruction unleashed. Does this mean, we could see a repeat of Connie and Diane? No, but conditions could be right for it, if we have two hurricanes forming in the Atlantic. For Texas, this suggests we could see more dry weather in the next 6 to 10 days. There is also the chance for rain within the time frame by next week. We can look further into 8 to 14 days.

20150720_8To14Day_AnalogForecast

8/9/1996-Southeast Texas has a wet August following a dry spell. Some of the rain is from Hurricane Dolly that made landfall between Tuxpan and Tampico, Mexico on 8/23.
8/3/1981-August is mostly dry and hot in Southeast Texas. However, by the end of August, Tropical Depression Eight makes landfall and dumps heavy rain on Texas and Oklahoma. Up to 21 inches of rain fell in 24 hours in Pine Springs, Texas. 5 people died from flooding.
8/10/1998-Tropical Storm Charley forms on 8/21 and makes landfall on near Corpus Christi, Texas on 8/23 as a weak tropical storm after intensifying as a strong tropical storm. Del Rio sees heavy rain from what was Charley on 8/24. Over 17 inches of rain fell in Del Rio, setting an all time record.
8/13/1953-Hurricane Barbara makes landfall on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina on 8/13 as a Category 2 hurricane. Many areas see 5 to 10 inches of rain from Barbara with winds of 50 to 80 mph. Barbara claims 9 lives.
7/22/1959 & 7/28/1959-Hurricane Debra makes landfall on 7/24 between Freeport and Galveston, Texas as a Category 1 hurricane. Many areas see 60 to 80 mph winds with gust as high as 105 mph. Rain amount is 5 to 7 inches with highest total of 15.89″ in Orange, Texas. No fatalities reported from Debra.
8/17/1986-Hurricane Charley makes landfall on Cape Fear, North Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane. No hurricane force wind is recorded in North Carolina. Five people died from Charley in America. Charley ravages the United Kingdom as an extratropical storm on 8/27. It leads to the worst flooding in Dublin, Ireland. It claims 11 lives in Ireland and United Kingdom.
8/11/1955 & 8/16/1955-Hurricane Connie makes landfall on Fort Macon State Park, North Carolina as a Category 3 hurricane on 8/12. Connie moves inland into the Eastern US. The remnants dump heavy rain and leads to widespread flooding. The highest is 13.24″ at Fort Schuyler, New York. Connie claims 74 lives. Five days later, Hurricane Diane, makes landfall as a tropical storm near Wilmington, North Carolina. Diane moves inland and dumps more heavy rain on the Eastern US. Diane causes massive flooding in the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Many areas see 10 to 15 inches of rain including 19.75″ in Westfield, Massachusetts. At least 184 people died from Diane.

The analog forecast has tropical activity, especially for North Carolina and Eastern US. Even Texas gets tropical activity. We are entering the start of the peak of the hurricane season. It only takes one to be devastating. There is hint of tropical development by this weekend. This would be within the analog forecast.

For Texas, it should be a dry and hot week. Than things could change by next week, as we could see rain returning. Quite frankly, I would not be surprised if we do see tropical activity as early as this week. I will be keeping an eye on the tropics this week. It could get interesting. If named, it would be Danny and Erika.

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