Bill In Review And Forecast For June 21, 2015

20150616_02L_VIS_1955Z

We are now officially in Summer. The days are starting to get slowly shorter each day. Of course, it feels hot as it is Summer. Meanwhile, Southeast Texas got hit by Tropical Storm Bill last week. Some areas got a lot of rain, while others did not. It is the first time that a tropical cyclone made landfall on Texas coast since Ike in 2008. Well, Texas felt Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Hermine in 2010 and dried out Tropical Storm Don in 2011.

20150622_7Day_Rainfall_Total

The areas closer to the center of Bill got more rain. Some areas got nearly 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days as seen in the map! The areas northwest of Houston got a lot of rain as well in part due to Bill. Houston area got 2 to 6 inches of rain. Isolated areas got as much as 12 inches of rain.

With Bill gone, how is this week to next week going to fare? There are various ways to look at it. If we just use this week, we can use a surface map produced by the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

20150622_WPC_SFC_CONUS_3to7Days

It shows a unusual summer cold front heading towards Houston by the weekend. Depending on where it goes over, someone could see thunderstorms fire up along the boundary. It just one forecast method use. Another is the analog upper air pattern. It goes up to 14 days. Let’s start with 6 to 10 days analog forecast.

20150622_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

7/2/2006-Southeast Texas has a wet Independence Day week.
7/2/1972-Hurricane Agnes ravages the Eastern US with strong winds and flooding. Many areas see 6 to 12 inches of rain with as much as 19 inches of rain in western Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania on 6/19 to 6/24.
7/1/1998-Galveston sees heavy rain on 6/28-29 from a tropical wave. Galveston: 11.64″; Bush Intercontinental: 0.62″; Hobby: 1.82″. Galveston records its wettest 6/28 (6.90″) and 6/29 (4.74″).
6/27/1987-Houston area sees rain from 6/29 to 7/2. Four day totals are Bush Intercontinental: 2.46″; Hobby: 3.98″; Galveston: 2.80″.
7/10/1961-Southeast Texas sees a wet July. Houston officially sees its wettest 7/9 of 2.39″. Hobby also sees its wettest 7/9 of 2.42″.
7/11/2007-Southeast Texas sees a wet July. Upper Texas Coast has second wettest July after 1900 of 12.29″.
7/10/1952-Galveston sees it wettest 7/17 of 4.91″.
6/26/2004-Texas is in midst of a wet June. June 2004 was the wettest month for Texas prior to May 2015.

Looking at those analog dates, this bodes a wet one for Texas. In the mean time, let’s look at 8 to 14 day analog forecast.

20150622_8To14Day_AnalogForecast

6/27/2006 & 7/2/2006-Southeast Texas has a wet Independence Day week.
7/11/1952-Galveston sees it wettest 7/17 of 4.91″.
6/30/1998-Galveston sees heavy rain on 6/28-29 from a tropical wave. Galveston: 11.64″; Bush Intercontinental: 0.62″; Hobby: 1.82″. Galveston records its wettest 6/28 (6.90″) and 6/29 (4.74″).
6/20/2004 & 6/26/2004-Texas is in midst of a wet June. June 2004 was the wettest month for Texas prior to May 2015.
7/2/1972-Hurricane Agnes ravages the Eastern US with strong winds and flooding. Many areas see 6 to 12 inches of rain with as much as 19 inches of rain in western Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania on 6/19 to 6/24.
6/28/1987-Houston area sees rain from 6/29 to 7/2. Four day totals are Bush Intercontinental: 2.46″; Hobby: 3.98″; Galveston: 2.80″.

The 8 to 14 day analog forecast is mainly similar to the 6 to 10 day analog forecast. This suggest this week to next week is going to be a wet one for Texas. I suspect this summer will be a wet and cool one.

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