Oh No! (Tropical Storm Bill)

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued their first advisory for Tropical Storm Bill. It is a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. It has tropical storm force winds extending up to 160 miles, especially east of the center.

20150615_02L_2300EDT

The cone has Bill going northwest towards Texas at 12 mph. This means it could make landfall by tomorrow morning on the Texas Coast as a tropical storm. Bill forecasted to be stronger to 60 mph. Here is a wind probability, by 34 knots, 50 knots, and 64 knots.

34 Knots
20150615_02L_34KnotProbability_2300EDT

50 Knots
20150615_02L_50KnotProbability_2300EDT

64 Knots
20150615_02L_64KnotProbability_2300EDT

Coast areas have the highest chance to see tropical storm force winds. As you are further inland, the tropical storm force winds diminish due to land interaction. That means the highest wind on land assuming it is at 60 mph using the 15 percent reduction rule is 51 mph. That means the highest gust could be 77 mph is we multiply by factor of 1.5. Most areas should see 30 to 45 mph winds with gusts of 45 to 68 mph. Hurricane force winds are less likely with Bill. Of course, storms like Bill can rapidly intensify in the Gulf of Mexico if conditions are right.

The waters in the Gulf of Mexico are quite warm. Here is the 26°C or 78.8°F depth map.

20150615_26C_Depth_GOM

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
20150615_TCHP_GOM

The warm water is quite deep. An area of very warm on the surface and deep layer of warm water is very favorable for tropical development if there are not a lot of wind shear. The conditions can allow Bill to intensify further. I would not be surprised if Bill did become a hurricane. I suspect more likely a tropical storm.

Rainfall is another issue. It is moving 12 mph, which means if we use the rule of thumb, 100 divided by the motion speed, which is 12, we get about 8 inches of rain. That means Bill could easily dump 8 inches of rain. I suspect Bill will be more of a rain event than a wind event. Many areas could see 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated areas seeing up to 15 inches of rain. The grounds in Southeast Texas is very saturated from the May and Spring rains. That can allow more flooding to happen from heavy rain if it is prolonged. The ground cannot handle anymore water, which means, flooding risk goes up from Bill.

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