Weather In Review And Forecast For June 7, 2015

Texas has been dry this past week. Normally that is a bad thing as Texas came off of a drought. However, this past spring has been very wet. Texas had its wettest May and spring on record. I should have a report in the coming days for Spring 2015. Stay tuned for that! So, some drying out is not a bad thing as areas had been flooded from street to river. Let things dry out before the rain returns by the end of the week.

Right now, we are in the Atlantic hurricane season. So, tropical trouble will be on my mind until November 30, 2015. Let’s look at the East Pacific, as there is Invest 94E. Here is the latest satellite image for East Pacific.

20150608_Invest94E_NHC_Satellite_1900PDT

It is the area of thunderstorms marked with an orange circle. It has a moderate to good chance of developing this week. If named it would be Carlos.

Here is a heat map of where it may go in the next few days. The path is within 300 miles. It is based on a composite of forecast models. I got the data from RAL Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project.

20150609_Invest94E_0000Z

Looking at the heat map, it suggests that 94E could make landfall on Mexico and cross into the Gulf of Mexico. Looks like it could either go into Mexico or head out to the Pacific. It is too early to tell at this time. Here is an intensity forecast model for 94E.

20150609_Invest93E_Intensity_0000Z

Most forecast models have 94E as a Category 1 hurricane in 48 hours or 2 days. One has it as a Category 3 hurricane in 5 days. Intensity forecast model has a long way to go at this time. I suspect 94E will be an intense hurricane as strong as Category 5. This is what I think. Once 94E becomes a tropical depression, we should have a better idea of where it will go and intensity.

In the meantime, let’s look at the 6 to 10 day analog forecast.

20150608_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

6/22/1953-Heavy rain falls in Houston area on 6/29. Houston WB: 2.25″; Hobby: 2.81″. Houston records second wettest 6/29, while Hobby records it wettest 6/29.
6/27/1980-Heat wave plagues America throughout the summer.
6/17/1962-Heavy rain falls in Houston area on 6/27. Houston WB: 1.92″; Hobby: 0.54″. Houston records second wettest 6/27.
5/31/1996-May 1996 Kentucky Tornado Outbreak on 5/28. 11 tornadoes hit Central and Northern Kentucky. No fatalities are reported.
6/19/1994-Four tornadoes reported in Michigan and New York on 6/13. At least one tornado reported in St. Francis/Portage Lake, Maine on 6/18. Tornadoes in Georgia and Missouri on 6/25 and 6/27 claim 3 lives.

Looking at the 6 to 10 day analog forecast, it suggests that there could be heavy rain in Southeast Texas and perhaps a tornado outbreak somewhere. They were not the flooding kind of rain that hit Texas. One analog date had a severe heat wave in the Summer of 1980. I do not see that happening. Let’s look at the 8 to 14 day analog forecast.

20150608_8To14Day_AnalogForecast

6/22/1953 & 6/27/1953-Heavy rain falls in Houston area on 6/29. Houston WB: 2.25″; Hobby: 2.81″. Houston records second wettest 6/29, while Hobby records it wettest 6/29.
6/15/1962-Heavy rain falls in Houston area on 6/27. Houston WB: 1.92″; Hobby: 0.54″. Houston records second wettest 6/27.
6/26/1980-Heat wave plagues America throughout the summer.
7/6/2003-Hurricane Claudette makes on landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on Port O’Connor, Texas on 7/15. Many areas see 5 to 8 inches of rain as it claims 3 lives. The highest storm surge is 9.15 feet.
6/28/1998-Galveston sees heavy rain on 6/28-29 from a tropical wave. Galveston: 11.64″; Bush Intercontinental: 0.62″; Hobby: 1.82″. Galveston records its wettest 6/28 (6.90″) and 6/29 (4.74″).

The 8 to 14 day analog forecast is mostly similar to 6 to 10 day analog forecast. Some are interesting like in 1998, in which Galveston was hit by heavy rain from a tropical wave to Hurricane Claudette making landfall in July 2003. Does this mean, we could see something tropical making landfall in the next 8 to 14 days? No, but this NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking Page suggests something tropical could be brewing in the next 5 to 10 days in the Bay of Campeche.

20150608_TCGenesis_ATL_120-240Hour_1800Z

It could be from what would be Carlos if it was to cross into the Gulf of Mexico. It could also be from a monsoonal gyre moving northward. Most tropical cyclones form from monsoonal troughs around the world.

So, what would this week be like? We could see rain returning this week. Also, keep an eye on the tropics as something could be brewing. Tune in in the next few days—same time, same Bat-channel!

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