Weather In Review And Forecast For May 3, 2015

Last week was rather quiet compared to the week before. The calm week cannot always stay calm right? Well, things could become more active this week to next week. Right now, let’s cut to what is going on this week.

I have been hearing that something tropical could be brewing this week. There is an area of thunderstorms over Cuba, which may form as it moves northward.

20150505_GOES-EAST_WATL_0000Z

Here are some forecast models at various times and forecast hours. They are GFS, Euro, Canadian, NAVGEM, and JMA. Let’s start with GFS. Special thanks to Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits as usual.

GFS
20150504_GFS_MSLP_Wind_WATL_72Hour_1800Z

Euro
20150504_EURO_MSLP_Wind_WATL_72Hour_1200Z

Canadian
20150504_GEM_MSLP_Wind_WATL_90Hour_1200Z

NAVGEM
20150504_NAVGEM_MSLP_Wind_WATL_90Hour_1200Z

JMA
20150504_JMA_MSLP_Wind_WATL_96Hour_1200Z

Most of the forecast models have it developing into something tropical. The only exception is the Canadian, which is always bullish when it comes to tropical development. I do not think this will develop into anything tropical. However, I would not rule it out completely either. The first reason is it has to deal with wind shear at the upper level. Upper level wind shear right now is very strong. Wind shear kills any tropical development. Here is the most recent wind shear map. Even if it is over very warm water.

20150505_WindShearTendency

If it was to develop, I expect at most a subtropical storm. If named, it would be Ana. The last time we had tropical storms form in May were off the Southeast US in 2012. There were two named storms that formed in the same area in May, Alberto and Beryl. Anyways, it would be a good time to watch that storm as hurricane season is ever so close on June 1, 2015.

On non-tropical related weather, what will this week and next week be like? Let’s start with the 6 to 10 day analog forecast.

20150504_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

4/28/2009-Heavy rain falls over the Houston area on 4/27-28. Many areas see 6 to 11 inches of rain, which leads to flooding.
4/29/1989-Severe weather strikes Southeast Texas on 4/29-30. Hail and strong winds are reported throughout Southeast Texas.
4/26/2003-May 2003 Tornado Outbreak Sequence from 4/30 to 5/11. 401 tornadoes are reported, which claims 42 lives.
5/20/1962-Rain falls on the first five days of June 1962. Houston WB: 4.12″; Hobby: 3.28″. Houston officially records its wettest 6/4 of 3.72″.
5/26/1998-Late May 1998 Tornado Outbreak and Derecho on 5/30-31. Spencer tornado is the most destructive and second deadliest for South Dakota, which claims 7 lives. 6 others are from the derecho. The derecho goes across the Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard, causing severe weather and tornado outbreaks. It is the most intense thunderstorm for 1998.
5/14/1999-Houston is hit by a strong bow echo, which produces strong winds from thunderstorms in the early morning of 5/10. It leads to massive power outages, the largest outside of Alicia in 1983. Heavy rain falls on 5/12 in Houston area. Many areas see 2 to 6 inches of rain.

Looking at the analog dates I mention, most had some severe weather event or heavy rain. One of them had a massive derecho in 1998. The derecho was so intense that it is considered the most intense thunderstorm in the world for 1998. If we use analog dates up to next week, this suggests that severe weather or heavy rain is possible. Does this mean, this will happen? No, but the conditions are there for it. Let’s look at the 8 to 14 day analog forecast.

20150504_8To14Day_AnalogForecast

4/28/1989-Severe weather strikes Southeast Texas on 4/29-30. Hail and strong winds are reported throughout Southeast Texas.
4/28/2009-Heavy rain falls over the Houston area on 4/27-28. Many areas see 6 to 11 inches of rain, which leads to flooding.
6/1/1966-June 1966 Tornado Outbreak Sequence from 6/2-12. There are 57 tornadoes, which claim 18 lives. One tornado hits Topeka, Kansas on 6/8 as a powerful F5 tornado. It claims 16 lives.
4/28/2003-May 2003 Tornado Outbreak Sequence from 4/30 to 5/11. 401 tornadoes are reported, which claims 42 lives.
5/20/1978-Severe weather hits on 5/29-30 in Southeast Texas. Heavy rain falls in the event in which many areas see 2 to 4 inches of rain.
5/20/2004-Heavy rain falls over Central Texas east of Interstate 35 on 5/13. Hearne, Texas records up to 17 inches of rain in a few hours, which leads to severe flooding. May 2004 Tornado Outbreak Sequence from 5/21-31. 389 tornadoes are reported, which claims 7 lives.
5/27/1998-Late May 1998 Tornado Outbreak and Derecho on 5/30-31. Spencer tornado is the most destructive and second deadliest for South Dakota, which claims 7 lives. 6 others are from the derecho. The derecho goes across the Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard, causing severe weather and tornado outbreaks. It is the most intense thunderstorm for 1998.

Looking at the 8 to 14 day analogs, it also suggests that severe weather and heavy rain is a possibility as they have occurred on those dates. This is spring after all, so severe weather is more likely. May is a very active month for severe weather and flooding. So, this week into next week could be an interesting one to say the least.

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