Weather In Review And Forecast For April 5, 2015

From this week and so on, instead of “This Week’s Forecast For Week Of”, it will be called “Weather In Review And Forecast For”. I think it is a better reflection of my articles as I spend a good time looking at last week and forecast this week to next week. Easter has passed as it is often seen the mark of the start of Spring. Irregardless, we are in Spring.

20150406_SurfaceTemperatureAnomaly_NH

Most of America and Asia were warm last week. It felt like if Summer tried to come before Easter. Northern Canada, Northeast America, Central Asia, and Eastern Siberia were colder than normal. For them, Winter did not want leave despite Easter.

20150406_500mb_GeopotentialHeightAnomaly_NH

As there is troughing, it is cooler, while ridging is warmer. It is all at the upper level of the atmosphere.

This week is an interesting one, especially by the end of the week to next week. Let’s look at GFS, GEM, and NAVGEM.

GFS 150 Hours
20150406_GFS_MSLP_Precip_150Hour_1800Z

GEM 150 Hours
20150406_GEM_MSLP_Precip_150Hour_1800Z

NAVGEM 126 Hours
20150406_NAVGEM_MSLP_Precip_126Hour_1800Z

GFS and GEM have rain over Houston on Saturday night to early Sunday morning. NAVGEM has the rain over Houston during the day on Saturday. Two of the three forecast rain on Saturday night to Sunday morning, while NAVGEM has the rain out by Sunday morning. At this point, I would lean towards rain on Saturday night to Sunday morning. This could be a severe weather event, which warrants watching. This forecast could change quickly as usual.

Another way to forecast this week is to look at analogs. I am a fan of using analogs when it comes to anything from astronomy, crime, history, and weather. Here is the 6 to 10 day analog forecast.

20150406_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

4/28/1982-May 1982 is a record month for tornadoes at the time. A late spring cold front comes to Southeast Texas on 5/6/1982. Lows recorded on 5/8 at Bush Intercontinental: 47°F; Hobby: 52°F. Bush sets a record low for 5/8, but is second lowest when Houston WB records are included prior to 1969.
3/29/2005-Tornado outbreak in Kansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida on 4/5-7. 39 tornadoes are reported with 14 injuries.
4/14/1987-After a cold start for many, most of Central and Northern US and Canada are in a heat wave. Houston sets numerous record highs between 4/14-30.
4/8/1960-Tornado outbreak on 4/16 in Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. 21 tornadoes are reported 1 fatality and 13 injured.
4/28/2007-Tornado outbreak on 5/4-6 produced 129 tornadoes in Central US. One monster tornado destroys the city of Greensburg, Kansas. The outbreak claims 14 lives.
4/7/2003-Tornado outbreak occurs on 4/5-7 in East Texas and Western Louisiana.
4/21/2000-Tornado outbreak on Easter on 4/23 ravages Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
4/22/1976-Heavy rain falls ahead of a cold front on 4/18/1976. Rainfall totals are Bush Intercontinental: 8.16″; Hobby: 0.04″; Galveston: T”; College Station: 0.50″. Houston sets a 24 hour record rainfall total for 4/18.

Many of the analog days had tornado outbreaks, heavy rain, and even a heat wave. Does this mean any of this will occur? Not necessarily, but the conditions are favorable for such an event. Most of the analog dates have severe weather, which suggests severe weather is likely this week to next week. Let’s look at 8 to 14 day analog forecast.

20150406_8To14Day_AnalogForecast
4/1/1991-April 1991 is a wet April. Heavy rain hits Texas. South Texas gets hit by extremely heavy rains of over 20 inches on 4/8. The airports record 17 inches of rain.
4/26/2007-Tornado outbreak on 5/4-6 produced 129 tornadoes in Central US. One monster tornado destroys the city of Greensburg, Kansas. The outbreak claims 14 lives.
4/8/1969-Rain falls 4/11-13 in Houston area. Both Houston WB and Hobby record 2.36″.
4/3/1959-Heavy rain occurs in Houston area between 4/8-11. Rainfall totals are Houston WB: 6.22″; Hobby: 7.01″; Galveston: 1.77″. Houston sees its second wettest 4/8 and 4/9 and all time wettest 4/11 on record. It leads to flooding in Houston area.

Looking at the 8 to 14 day analog, it seems to suggest more heavy rain over tornado outbreaks. This suggests that heavy rain is possible. Now, I am not suggesting record rainfall and flooding. Just conditions are possible for such an event if conditions are right.

I think this week, we could see storms and possibly severe weather. So stay tuned this week.

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