This Week’s Forecast For Week Of March 29, 2015

Last week was warm for most of America. However, for the Upper Midwest, Northeast, and Eastern Canada, it is like if Winter made a return again. In fact, most of Northern Hemisphere was warm last week. In the Southern Hemisphere, Antarctica had warmer than normal temperatures. In fact, Esperanza Base recorded its highest temperature of 63.5°F. The Argentine base is located in Trinity Peninsula of northern Antarctica. It is the warmest temperature in frigid Antarctica. It is like a heat wave for them. For most of the world, that is normal temperature. South America and Australia had cooler than normal temperatures. All the cold air went to South America and Australia. There was also heavy rain of 1 inches in Northern Chile, home to the driest desert, Atacama Desert. That is 14 years worth of rain in one day! Some areas of Atacama Desert sees no rain for centuries!

20150330_SurfaceTemperatureAnomaly_NH

20150330_SurfaceTemperatureAnomaly_SH

What would cause the temperature to be hot and cold? Look at the upper level maps of Northern and Southern Hemisphere.

20150330_500mb_GeopotentialHeightAnomaly_NH

20150330_500mb_GeopotentialHeightAnomaly_SH

Where there is ridging, it is warmer. The reason why Trinity Peninsula had warm temperatures was due to strong ridging over the area last week. Areas that had troughing over them had cooler than normal temperatures.

So, how will this week be like? Let’s look at the analog forecast. I will start with 6 to 10 day forecast.

20150330_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

4/6/1967-Heavy rain falls on 4/13/1967 in Houston area. Houston WB: 1.46″; Hobby: 2.23″; Galveston: 1.49″. Record for that date at Hobby.
4/3/2003-Tornado outbreak occurs on 4/5-7 in East Texas and Western Louisiana.
4/18/1972-Tornadoes reported in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas on 4/19. Tornado outbreak on 4/21 in Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, and Illinois. 10 killed in the tornado outbreak.
4/24/1967-The 1967 Oak Lawn tornado outbreak in Northern Illinois on 4/21/1967. There were numerous tornadoes in the Chicago area. One tornado, a F4, hit Belvidere High School, claiming 13 lives in Belvidere, Illinois. Once it was over, 58 people were killed. The Upper Midwest had record lows on 4/24-25.
4/15/2003-Tornadoes reported in Oklahoma and Texas on 4/15.
4/2/1969-Deadly tornadoes strike Bangladesh on 4/14. One tornado near Dhaka claimed 660 lives, while another east of Comilla claims 263 lives. A total of 923 people are killed in Bangladesh.
4/23/1982-Tornado outbreak on 4/25-27 in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Looking at the analog dates, most had some severe weather outbreak, including tornadoes. Severe weather looks possible this week for America. There was a deadly tornado outbreak in Bangladesh. The deadliest tornadoes occur in that nation due to poverty, where houses are not built to withstand strong winds.

Let’s look at the 8 to 14 day forecast.

20150330_8To14Day_AnalogForecast

4/17/1985-Tornado outbreak on 4/21 hits Texas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Three people killed in Texas.
4/1/1981-West Bend, Wisconsin is hit by a F4 tornado on 4/4. One unusual aspect is the storms are weakening and producing a tornado.
3/24/1976-Tornado outbreak hits on 3/20-21. The Southeast and Midwest are hit by tornadoes, which total 66. Another outbreak occurred on 3/26-27 and ravaged Arkansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Missouri, and Illinois. It claims 2 lives. March 1976 has the most tornadoes for March before the 1990s.
4/26/1982-Tornado outbreak on 4/25-27 in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
3/27/1998-The Comfrey–St. Peter Tornado Outbreak on 3/29. Minnesota and Wisconsin are ravaged by tornadoes. Another tornado outbreak occurred a week earlier on 3/20 with Gainesville–Stoneville Tornado Outbreak. It occurs in Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia.
4/11/1994-Widespread tornado outbreak on 4/25-27. It occurs in a large area from Colorado, Texas, and Illinois.
4/16/1994-Portland–Vancouver Tornado on 4/5. Tornadoes ravage Oregon and Washington, claiming 6 lives, making it the deadliest tornado in the Pacific Northwest.
4/10/1968-Wheelersburg, Ohio Tornado Outbreak in Ohio and Kentucky. Thirteen tornadoes are reported and claim 14 lives.

Like the 6 to 10 day analog forecast, tornado outbreaks occurred in those analog dates. Does this mean will we see tornadoes this week? No, but the conditions are possible for tornadoes. This is spring after all, in which tornadoes start forming as we are transitioning from winter to summer. Easter week could be interesting weather wise in terms of severe weather.

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