This Week’s Forecast For Week Of March 22, 2015

We are now in the astronomical spring. Winter is no more as days get longer and weather gets warmer. The Sweet 16 of March Madness is here. Than there is the Elite 8. Anyone who wins the Elite 8 goes to the Final Four and than the National Champions. Last week was warm, while others had it wet.

20150323_SurfaceTemperatureAnomaly_NH

Most of the Northern Hemisphere had warmer than normal temperatures. Spring is in force after cold winters for some areas. Small pockets of cooler than normal temperatures over Northeast US, Central Mexico, Northern Canada, Iberian Peninsula, and Northwest Africa.

20150323_500mb_GeopotentialHeightAnomaly_NH

There is strong ridging over Scandinavia, America, and Japan. Troughing is mostly over the more polar areas of Canada, Alaska, and Siberia. There is troughing over Baja California, which has been allow moisture to go over Texas lately.

It was very rainy for Southeast, Central, and South Texas. The rains are considered beneficial. Now, it would be nice if we could send the rain to North Texas. They could use it as well.

20150322_7Day_Rainfall_Total

Many areas saw 2 to 4 inches of rain this past weekend, mainly in South and Southeast Texas. Some saw as high as 7 inches of rain. Not bad.

Let’s take a look at the past to see what history can hold for the future. Let’s look at the 6 to 10 day analog forecast.

20150323_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

3/26/1990-Heavy rain hits Houston area between 3/28-30. Three day totals are Bush Intercontinental: 3.61″; Hobby: 2.78″; Galveston: 1.33″.
3/31/1995-Widespread report of hail in Texas Panhandle on 4/2-3. Severe weather reported in Southeast Texas on 4/4.
3/14/1992-Tornado and hail reported throughout West and Central Texas on 3/27-31.
4/8/1985-Tornado and hail reported in Texas Panhandle on 4/10-13. Heavy rain falls on 4/20-21. Bush Intercontinental: 2.71″; Hobby: 0.09″; Galveston: 0.66″; College Station: 0.25″. 2.70″ falls at Intercontinental on 4/20, highest rainfall total for that date.
3/18/1988-Houston records a low of 32°F on 3/15, which ties 1999 with coldest 3/15.

Some of the analog dates stand out. They are mostly severe weather events. Not surprising as it is spring in those dates. One had a freeze in 1988. Looking at it, this suggest that we could see more rain and possibly severe weather. Anyway, let’s look at 8 to 14 day analog forecast.

20150323_8To14Day_AnalogForecast

3/25/1990-Heavy rain hits Houston area between 3/28-30. Three day totals are Bush Intercontinental: 3.61″; Hobby: 2.78″; Galveston: 1.33″. Interesting to note on that date, America’s deadliest mass murder occurred on this day at the Happyland Club Fire. A man angry over a break up with his girlfriend set fire to the club in The Bronx borough of New York. The fire claimed 87 lives. It was the deadliest mass murder prior to Oklahoma City Bombing and 9/11.
4/15/1990-Heavy rain falls over Lake Somerville, Texas on 4/24. Many areas saw 9 to 14 inches of rain, which led to severe flooding. Heavy rain hits Houston area on 4/26. Bush Intercontinental: 3.52″; Hobby: 2.56″; College Station: 1.36″ Galveston: 1.98″. Houston records its highest rainfall for 4/26.
4/1/1995-Widespread report of hail in Texas Panhandle on 4/2-3. Severe weather reported in Southeast Texas on 4/4.
4/9/2000-Severe weather hits Southeast Texas on 4/1-3. Another round of severe weather on 4/11-12.

The 8 to 14 day analog forecast have severe weather and even flooding like in 1990. It is spring and severe weather will become an issue. This week should be quiet other some chance of rain ahead of a cold Thursday. This coming weekend should be pleasant.

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