This Week’s Forecast For Week Of February 8, 2015

Snow is back for New England. It has been very snowy for Boston and surrounding areas. More snow is forecasted this week.

20150209_GFS_SnowfallTotal_NEUSA_144Hour_0000Z

It seemed cooler than normal last week if you were in Texas or Eastern Seaboard. Most of Canada and parts of Alaska were abnormally cold. Same goes with Northern Siberia and Western Europe. Western US, Eastern Europe, and Eastern Russia were very warm. One area is cold, while the other area is warm.

20150209_SurfaceTemperatureAnomaly_NH

So, why were some areas warm, while others cooler?

20150209_500mb_GeopotentialHeightAnomaly_NH

The cooler areas had upper level troughing, while warmer areas had upper level ridging. The upper level troughing is most obvious Western Europe, Arctic Ocean, and Northern Canada. Upper level ridging is most obvious over Western US, Eastern Russia, and south of Greenland and Iceland.

Outside of the Eastern Seaboard snow storm, let’s look at the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day analog forecast. Let’s start with 6 to 10 days.

20150209_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

2/28/1978-Houston has a warm spell. Highs for that date: Intercontinental Airport: 81°F; Hobby: 83°F; Galveston: 76°F. Cold blast comes on 3/3/1978.
2/5/1981-Strong cold front comes on 2/10/1981. Thunderstorms formed ahead of the cold front which produced tornadoes north of Houston. The tornadoes claimed one life and injured 11. Lows for 2/11/1981: Intercontinental Airport: 20°F; Hobby: 20°F; Galveston: 24°F.
2/12/1986-Unusual winter heat wave from 2/16 to 2/20/1986. Intercontinental Airport had 91°F on 2/20/1986. Hobby recorded 87°F on 2/18 and 2/19. Galveston did not reach 80s or 90s during the heat wave. Houston had its warmest 2/20 on record, while Hobby had its warmest 2/18 and 2/19 on record.

Most of the dates were not remarkable with the exception of dates in 1978 and 1981. Both were warm that time. A cold front came within 5 days and brought cold weather. 1986 had a unusual heat wave in February. Heat waves are very rare in February.

Let’s look at 8 to 14 days.

20150209_8To14Day_AnalogForecast

3/6/1996-A cold front comes on 3/7/1996. It causes a light freeze for Houston area.
2/12/1986-Unusual winter heat wave from 2/16 to 2/20/1986. Intercontinental Airport had 91°F on 2/20/1986. Hobby recorded 87°F on 2/18 and 2/19. Galveston did not reach 80s or 90s during the heat wave. Houston had its warmest 2/20 on record, while Hobby had its warmest 2/18 and 2/19 on record.

Not much stands out for the 8 to 14 day analog forecast with the exception of 1986 and 1996. Here is a temperature anomaly map based on the 6 to 10 day analog forecast with day 8 centered.

20150209_6To10Day_AnalogForecast_SurfaceTemperatureAnomaly_NH

Western US is warm, while Canada and Alaska are cooler based on the day 8 centered.

Here is a temperature anomaly map based on the 8 to 14 day analog forecast with day 11 centered.

20150209_8To14Day_AnalogForecast_SurfaceTemperatureAnomaly_NH

Looking at it, most of America is not that cold or warm. It is mostly temperatures within average.

Analog forecasts are useful for the most part. Here is a 8 day upper level forecast for the Northern Hemisphere. It is from EURO. The GFS is still generating at the time of this article.

20150209_EURO_500mbGeopotentialHeightAnomaly_NH_192Hour_1200Z

There is ridging over Alaska and Eastern Russia. This means a negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). However, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is positive as there is troughing over Greenland and Northeast Canada. There is also troughing over the Maritime Provinces of Canada. This suggests that a polar vortex is coming down south by next week. Here is a mean sea level pressure anomaly forecast from EURO. It is 9 days from now.

20150209_EURO_MSLPAnomaly_NH_192Hour_1200Z

It shows a 1040 millibar high over Midwest. It is strong, but not a super epic cold blast. That is enough to keep things cold next week. Stay tuned.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s