This Week’s Forecast For Week Of February 1, 2015

Last week’s Nor’easter was a bust or bomb depending on where you live. If you were in New York and Philadelphia, it was a bust. They did not get a lot of snow as forecasted. Central Park recorded 9.8 inches of snow, which is not bad for New York, but would be big for Houston area. However, if you were in Boston or Providence, the storm was a bomb. Many areas in New England saw 2 to 3 feet of snow. Highest wind speed was 75 mph with gust as high as 95 mph. The Nor’easter did live up to its hype if you were in New England.

Most of America was warm, with the exception of the Northeast and Alaska. Even with the blizzard, it was not abnormally cold. Alaska had their coldest temperature so far for this winter. It was also cold over Central Asia and Arctic region. Eastern Russia and most of Europe were warm.

20150202_SurfaceTemperatureAnomaly_NH

So, why was it warm again last week?

20150202_500mb_GeopotentialHeightAnomaly_NH

There is troughing over Arctic region, Greenland, Europe, and Siberia. Troughing over Greenland is a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Troughing keeps cold air bottled up north. There is ridging over the Western US, Eastern Russia, and over the Atlantic. The ridging over Eastern Russia is a negative West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). The ridging over Eastern Russia kept the region warm, while Alaska was cold.

What will this week be like? I am going to use the 6 to 10 day.

20150202_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

2/19/1995-Southeast Texas has a period of wet weather from 2/23/1995 to 3/7/1995. 3/8/1995 sees lows in the 30s.
2/2/1991-Heavy rain falls ahead of a Pacific front on 2/4. Bush Intercontiental: 1.94″; Hobby: 2.59″; Galveston: 4.51″; College Station: 1.34″. Wettest February 4th for Galveston, while second wettest for Houston as it ties with 1923.
1/28/1992-Heavy rain falls on 2/3/1992. Bush Intercontiental: 1.82″; Hobby: 2.40″; Galveston: 3.55″; College Station: 2.20. Wettest February 3rd for Galveston and Houston.
2/22/1992-Heavy rain falls on 2/22 and 2/24/1992. Total for those two dates: Bush Intercontiental: 2.09″; Hobby: 2.44″; Galveston: 1.95″.
2/5/1996-America and Texas is in grips of a freeze from 2/1 to 2/5. Freezing rain is reported on 2/2 and 2/3. Lowest temperature during freeze: Bush Intercontiental: 22°F; Hobby: 24°F; Galveston: 25°F; College Station: 16°F.

Many of these analog dates had interesting weather ranging from heavy rain to a freeze. Does this mean, we will see heavy rain or a freeze? Not necessarily, but conditions are there for them.

Here is a 5 day upper level atmosphere map for the Northern Hemisphere. They are GFS, EURO, Canadian, and Japanese.

20150203_GFS_500mbGeopotentialHeightAnomaly_120Hour_0000Z

20150203_EURO_500mbGeopotentialHeightAnomaly_120Hour_0000Z

20150203_CMC_500mbGeopotentialHeightAnomaly_120Hour_0000Z

20150203_JMA_500mbGeopotentialHeightAnomaly_120Hour_0000Z

All the forecast models have troughing over Greenland, Arctic Ocean, and Alaska. There is ridging over Eastern Russia, which is a negative West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Normally, a negative WPO favors colder temperatures for Lower 48, but since troughing is prevalent, it should not have much of an impact, which would be limited to Alaska. That means, it favors warmer weather for the Lower 48. I expect the weather this week to be quiet and warm.

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