This Week’s Forecast For Week Of January 18, 2015

This week is not as cold as last week was. In fact, there was a warming trend. Most of America was not abnormally cold. The only areas that was cooler than normal was in Texas and Great Lakes Region around New York.

20150119_SurfaceTemperatureAnomaly_NH

The warmth is from the zonal winds coming from the west. This zonal wind map anomaly shows the positive anomaly, which is westerlies. Negative anomaly would be easterlies or blowing from the east.

20150119_200mb_ZonalWindAnomaly_NH

As long those westerlies blow in, it should keep things warm. However, do not get used to the warmth yet. These analog forecasts should give us insight of this week’s weather.

Here is a 6 to 10 day analog forecast, which centers around day 8.

20150119_6To10Day_AnalogForecast

Some of these dates stand out. Here are the dates that stand out.
1/17/1976-Cold front comes to Houston in 1/20/1976. Bush Intercontinental: 27°F; Hobby: 34°F; Galveston: 44°F.
2/13/1996-Unusual February heat wave hits Texas between 2/18 to 2/23. Many areas in Texas see 90 to 100 degree highs.

Not many outstanding weather events in those analog dates. They mostly had a cold front come down south and give colder air, not a strong one either. One of the analog dates had a unusual heat wave in February in 1996. That heat wave happened following a cold blast earlier that month. I am not suggesting a heat wave will happen. The February 1996 heat wave occurred in a La Nina winter. Here is a 8 to 14 day analog forecast. This one centers around day 11.

20150119_8To14Day_AnalogForecast

1/18/1994-Cold front comes on 1/17. A rush of cold air. Many areas in Southeast Texas see freezing or near freezing on 1/18 and 1/19.
1/26/1988-Cold front comes between 1/19. Many areas in Southeast Texas record cold temperatures between 1/21 to 1/27.
2/16/1996-Unusual February heat wave hits Texas between 2/18 to 2/23. Many areas in Texas see 90 to 100 degree highs.
1/15/1957-Cold front comes on 1/14 and cold temperature is recorded between 1/16 to 1/18.
1/29/1971-A light freeze happens between 2/8 and 2/10 in Houston area.

Again, like the 6 to 10 day analog forecast, there is a cold front that has cold air. There is not hard freeze as the high temperature is below freezing for a number of hours. Looking at the analog forecasts, this suggest we could be in for a cool pattern despite the warmth we have. Winter should be returning this week, especially by the end of the week.

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