This Week’s Forecast For Week Of January 4, 2015

This weeks looks to be a cold one for America. Many forecast models have a strong surface high pressure system with barometric pressure of 1055 to 1060 millibars. In fact, all the major forecast models have strong surface high, GFS, EURO, Canadian, and Japanese. The forecast models are all from Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits

20140106_GFS_MSLP_48Hour_0000Z

20140105_EURO_MSLP_48Hour_1200Z

20140105_GEM_MSLP_48Hour_1200Z

20140105_JMA_MSLP_48Hour_1200Z

These are all the latest 48 hour weather forecast, which is on Wednesday. They all show a strong surface high of over 1050 millibars.

GFS: 1050 millibars
EURO: 1059 millibars
Canadian: 1059 millibars
Japanese: 1056 millibars

GFS is the weakest, while EURO and Canadian are the strongest. If we averaged them out, the surface pressure is 1056 millibars, which is a strong one. I think the highest pressure will be around 1054 to 1058 millibars give or take. That puts it on par with cold blasts like in February 1895, February 1899, December 1924, January/February 1951, January 1962, December 1983, and December 1989. Those had strong surface high pressure and many set records in terms of barometric pressure.

In terms of movement, GFS is the fastest, as it has the surface high over Missouri. Japanese is the slowest as it is over Eastern Montana. EURO and Canadian are in the same area. I am going with a blend of all of them and put it over South Dakota and Nebraska.

Here is a 8 to 14 day analog forecast model from Climate Prediction Center-8 to 14 Day Analogs. It is based on upper level atmospheric patterns. It is based on atmospheric maps that most resemble the forecast since 1950.

20150105_8To14Day_AnalogForecast

Some of these dates stand out. Here are the dates that stand out.
2/2/1986-Heavy rain falls starting on 2/2/1986. Bush Intercontinental: 1.97″; Hobby: 2.59″; Galveston: 1.00″.
1/28/1960 & 2/2/1960-Heavy snow falls in Southeast Texas on 2/12/1960 from a cold core upper level low. Hobby: 4.40″; Galveston: 2.20″; Houston WB: 3.00″. Many areas saw 2 to 6 inches of snow. It is the largest snowfall since February 14-15, 1895, in which 20″ of snow fell in Houston.
2/1/1997-Heavy rain falls in Houston area on 2/12/1997. Bush Intercontinental: 2.20″; Hobby: 3.54″; Galveston: 1.74″. Third wettest day at Bush, while wettest day on record for Hobby.
1/15/1961-Snow flurry on 1/25/1961.
1/19/2001-A cold front comes on 1/20/1961. Many areas see below freezing. Bush Intercontinental: 26°F; Hobby: 29°F; College Station: 24°F.

Based on the analog forecasts, it is an interesting one. The analog forecast favors cold weather with a mix of possible winter weather.

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