Start Of 2014 Hurricane Season

2014AnalogHurricaneHeatMap

Time flies fast and June 1st is here. You know what that means? The Atlantic Hurricane season starts. Yes, it is this time of the year from now to November 30th. Here are the names for 2014.
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

The name list was last used in 2008, which was an active and memorable season. Gustav, Ike, and Paloma. They have been replaced by Gonzalo, Isaias, and Paulette. Gustav crashed into Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, and Louisiana. Ike ravaged Haiti, Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, Cuba, and Texas. Paloma hit Nicaragua and Cuba. Interesting to note, the Atlantic Hurricane name cycle for 2014 was also used in 2002.

I still think this season could be less active one, but not on the level of 2013. My prediction for 2014 has not changed since April. It is 11 storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) between 60 to 90. The forecast is subject to change due to various factors. The analog years for 2014 remain the same. They are 1957, 1965, 1997, and 2002

1997ElNinoThe reason I think those years are analog for 2014 are that we are seeing El Nino developing early. Also, they are in a warmer phase of the Atlantic. Many forecast models are predicting that we could see El Nino by summer. Frankly, I think we will see a strong El Nino on the level of 1972-1973, 1982-1983, or 1997-1998. Even if El Nino develops, there can be active seasons, like in 1969 and 2004. They started active and went into overdrive. Both were devastating years in the form of Camille in 1969 and Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne in 2004. However, they were weak El Ninos, unlike the current one, which could be a strong one.

I am thinking this season could see more home grown storms, which puts America at higher risk for landfall. Many of the analog years had devastating hurricanes that form closer to land like Audrey (1957), Betsy (1965), Danny (1997), and Isidore (2002). One interesting fact, America has not seen a Category 3+ hurricane make landfall since Wilma on October 24, 2005. Perhaps our luck could run out soon. Only time will tell between June 1 to November 30, 2014.

Regardless of how active or inactive this season is, we should always be prepared. It only takes one to be a devastating season.

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